Beto O’Rourke has a year-old, well-funded campaign for US Senate. Lupe Valdez doesn’t have anything like those advantages in her campaign for Governor. Will her lower profile effort have a negative effect on his higher profile one?
Rep. Beto O’Rourke
The race for governor is often the biggest spectacle in Texas politics, and the governor’s mansion the biggest prize.
But the contest between incumbent Republican Greg Abbott and Democratic nominee Lupe Valdez is forecast to be not much of a contest at all. Abbott, who in 2014 beat former state Sen. Wendy Davis by 20 percentage points, looms like Goliath on the political landscape, with Valdez lacking the weaponry to take him down. She needs more than five smooth stones.
Democrats have focused much of their attention on the remarkable campaign of Beto O’Rourke, the El Paso congressman who’s challenging incumbent Ted Cruz for Senate.
The Cruz-O’Rourke showdown is the marquee race of the season, and could change the fortunes of Democrats and Republicans alike.
With Abbott poised to spend more than $40 million to turn out the Republican vote and in the process help Cruz, the question becomes: does Valdez’s presence on the ticket hurt or help O’Rourke?
Lupe Valdez
“Compared to nothing, she helps,” said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.
[…]
Paul Quinn President Michael Sorrell, who Democrats recruited to run for governor, said Valdez’s presence on the ticket will have little impact on O’Rourke’s efforts.
“I don’t think Lupe makes a difference to this race,” Sorrell said. “People view Beto’s race as a separate entity from Lupe’s race.”
Veteran Republican consultant Bill Miller said Valdez could be a problem for O’Rourke and other Democrats because her campaign is so irrelevant.
“The Democrats believe she helps, but in my opinion she hurts,” Miller said. “She’s not going to be a strong candidate and her race is not a hot race. She’s going to be discounted early on and that won’t help O’Rourke.”
My inclination is to agree with Michael Sorrell. We haven’t had a situation like this in recent memory. In the recent years where we have had concurrent races for Senate and Governor:
– Wendy Davis’s gubernatorial campaign was much higher profile than David Alameel’s Senate campaign in 2014. Not that any of it made much difference.
– The four-way Governor’s race in 2006 defies comparison to anything else.
– Both Tony Sanchez and Ron Kirk had well-funded campaigns in 2002, with Kirk doing a few points better in the end.
Honestly, the real factor here is Greg Abbott and his gazillions of dollars, which would be a major concern no matter who was his opponent. Valdez has improved as a candidate after a rough start, and in the end I think she’ll raise a million or two bucks, which is a water balloon against Abbott’s fire hose but will at least allow for some kind of campaign activity. The main way Abbott can use his money to affect other races is by spending a ton on GOTV stuff, which again he’d do if he were running instead against Andrew White or Julian Castro or whoever your fantasy alternative candidate might be. He still has to contend with whatever chaos Donald Trump unleashes, whatever discontent the electorate may feel about Hurricane Harvey and gun violence, and other things that money may not be able to ameliorate. All things considered, I think Valdez’s campaign will have little effect on Beto’s. It’s unlikely to be of any help, but it probably won’t hurt, either.
(Yes, I wrote this before the property tax story came out. I still don’t think one campaign will have much effect on the other.)
Lupe needs to concentrate on those areas which she will do very well and work on bringing out voters. Beto will have the rest of the state to concentrate on. Team work, not a common trait usually deployed by Democrats but one that needs to be used.
One has to remember that the Republican/Trump party has become the party of racists, bigots, and liars. There are always exceptions but they are exceptions.
This year voting straight Democrat must be stressed. For the first time in my life I will pull a straight party lever, in fact I doubt I will ever support a Trump party candidate after 2016, their true colors came out.
In regards to the Property Tax story, it isn’t much of a story. She is paying on an installment plan, as many Americans do. It is a damning headline but the story isn’t much.
The property tax story is nothing. If she doesn’t pay by July, then it is a story. It is set up so if you make monthly payments, you will not be officially delinquent until July. You don’t have to file a payment plan, just make payments. You will pay interest.
There is no wealth test to run for office.
The big story with Lupe is her cooperation with ICE to deport Pelosi’s “spark of divinity” illegal aliens.
How many undocumented immigrants did Lupe participate in deporting? Lupe separates families.
If I was Abbott, I’d run ads featuring people whose relatives Lupe participated in deporting. I wouldn’t expect mixed families with illegals to vote Abbott, but highlighting that Lupe deported people would definitely depress the Hispanic turnout Lupe needs.
Charles, what effect do you think Lupe will have on the down-ballot races in Harris County? Although White was a legacy candidate and from Houston, you would think she would have done better here with the large Latino population.
James, the national atmosphere is the main driver of midterms. I think a combination of that and the recent voter registration efforts here will be the biggest factors. Valdez may have some effect at the margins, but unless she’s an epically bad candidate who turns off the base, I don’t expect it to be much.
“recent voter registration efforts” I completely agree. Hats off to the Harris County Democrats and their voter registration efforts. I believe that more than anything is what is turning the County Blue. The local democrats are doing a great job at registering people. If there is a Republican effort I don’t see it. In the Republican primary the Republicans are more concerned about who is marrying same sex couples then they are worried about getting out the vote. It is an obsession.
“recent voter registration efforts” I completely agree. Hats off to the Harris County Democrats and their voter registration efforts. I believe that more than anything is what is turning the County Blue. The local democrats are doing a great job at registering people. If there is a Republican effort I don’t see it. In the Republican primary the Republicans are more concerned about who is marrying same sex couples then they are worried about getting out the vote. It is an obsession.
sorry about the double post.
Remember that she has AFLCIO, Planned Parenthood, The Victory Fund, Annie’s List, Giffords Gun Sense, Tejano Democrats to name a few. She is going to pull in her own voter base. I doubt she is riding anyone’s coattails. We have events specifically planned for her alone here in the Houston-Galveston, Pasadena, Woodlands, etc.