Nate Cohn on Twitter:
Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of a battleground-wide Upshot/Siena poll
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 9:25 PM – 10 July 2018
Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of a battleground-wide Upshot/Siena poll
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 10:02 AM – 11 July 2018
In case you can’t tell from the picture, CDs 07, 23, and 32 are included among the districts that will be – actually, probably are already being – polled. We have one poll from CD07 done by the DCCC a month ago, and it showed a two point lead for John Culberson. I’m not aware of any polling in either of the other districts, but I’ll be very interested to see what we get here. Cohn mentions that he thinks the writeups of these polls will be out next week. I can hardly wait.
Gut feelings is that tx-07 and tx-32 should show dems tied or slightly ahead, tx-23 with a modest dem lead.
FWIW I tend to think any poll that shows a dem challenger within the margin of error at this point will be a lean to likely pick up in the fall. Usually challengers have less name recongition and a less secured base. IE most of the undecideds will fall their way. Plus if it really is a dem wave year as I strongly suspect, base turnout enthusiaism differentials won’t be accurately captured by polls and could add an extra 2-5 points based on the district.