Via Patrick Svitek on Twitter, I learned of a recent PPP poll in CD06. Here’s the polling memo, and here’s the information you’re most interested in:
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance?
48% Approve 46% Disapprove 5% Not sureQ2 If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in your District?
45% Democratic candidate 49% Republican candidate 6% Not sureQ3 If the candidates for U.S. House of Representatives this fall were Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez and Republican Ron Wright, who would you vote for?
39% Jana Lynne Sanchez 48% Ron Wright 13% Not sure
Not exactly sure why there’s a dropoff from the generic Democrat to Jana Sanchez, but that’s not a terribly unusual event in polls. Smokey Joe Barton won in 2016 by 19 points, and he won in 2014 by 25 points, so whichever result is closer to the truth represents a much tighter race than we’ve seen recently. As noted in other contexts, this is consistent with statewide polling showing narrower than usual margins. I hope we see more Congessional-level polls in the state going forward.
If Democrats are doing 9 or 10 points better across the board and it holds up through November it is a good sign.
Arlington is changing fast. Wouldn’t be surprised if Ron only wins this with 53 or 54%