From the inbox:
Nathan Johnson
A new poll conducted by Public Policy Polling shows challenger Nathan Johnson leading Don Huffines in the race for Texas Senate District 16, which covers most of northern Dallas County. Johnson has 45 percent of the vote, Huffines 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided. Senate District 16 has been one to watch ever since Hillary Clinton carried the district over Donald Trump in 2016 by 4.7 points. The poll of 525 respondents was conducted Sept. 20-21 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
“My campaign is about priorities – addressing our most important issues and solving problems. I am not interested in partisan extremes. I am interested in finally solving our public school funding crisis, among other things.” said Johnson. “And I think our message is resonating with voters.” Johnson recently received the recommendation of the Dallas Morning News.
Other insights from the poll:
– 53 percent of Senate District 16 voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance, 44 percent approve, and 3 percent have no opinion.
– 39 percent of Senate District 16 voters have an unfavorable opinion of Don Huffines, 32 percent are favorable, and 29 percent are unsure.
– If a presidential election were held today, and Donald Trump and Joe Biden were the nominees, in Senate District 16, Biden would receive 52 percent, and Trump 44 percent, with 3 percent undecided.
All the usual caveats apply here. It’s one poll. We don’t have the full data, though we do have a polling memo here. It’s a poll that was commissioned by a campaign, not an independent poll. Have all the salt you want with this one. We do have the recent poll results for CD32 (which has significant overlap with SD16), which offers some corroborating evidence that this part of Dallas County may be shifting. For now at least we can say this is in line with other known facts. I for one sure hope it’s accurate.
I never understood the idea that, if the Democrats got 13+ seats in the Senate, then the Blocker Bill would be resurrected. Dannie Goeb would just move it down to 18, or heck even a majority.
None of the Old Guard stood up to him in January 2015 when he was brand new. Not Fraser. Not Eltife. Not Seliger. Only Estes with a present vote, and now he’s gone, arguably because of that. Goeb has consolidated his power.
It’s a Dem internal but I’m willing to bet Huffines numbers are similar. His district is similar to Sessions CD32. Purple districts moving away from the gop as currently drawn. Lot of competitive house races like 102, 108, 112, 113, 114, 115 that overlap with this district. My bet is Johnson wins even with the amount of money Huffines can put in the mail and on tv. This seat has been red since John Leedom won it in 1980.