The 2018 Congressional races were the most expensive, the most hotly and broadly contested, and by far the most attention-grabbing races in the non-Beto division. We hadn’t seen anything remotely like it since the 2004 DeLay re-redistricting year, but we will see another round of it next year. Let’s break it all down, starting with the two districts where Dems picked up seats.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
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CD07 52.5% 53.3% 45.8% 51.3% 52.3% 51.4% 45.9%
CD32 52.3% 54.9% 46.3% 51.6% 52.8% 51.3% 47.3%
Note that while Lizzie Fletcher had a slightly higher percentage than Colin Allred, Allred had a larger margin of victory, as there was a Libertarian candidate in CD32 who took two percent, thus giving Allred a six-and-a-half point win. As with the State Senate, I don’t believe these districts shift as far as they do in a Democratic direction without a significant number of habitual Republicans voting for Democratic candidates. Turnout was certainly a factor in the overall result, and that was driven by voter registration and relentless GOTV efforts, but these districts were plenty red below the Presidential level in 2016. Republicans other than Trump were still carrying these districts by double digits. And even in 2018, you can see that Republicans that didn’t carry a significant amount of Trump taint still did well. I believe conditions in 2020 will be similar to what they were in 2018 and as such make Fletcher and Allred early favorite to win. Ask me again next year at this time.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
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CD10 46.8% 49.6% 43.9% 47.9% 48.4% 47.7% 44.9%
CD23 48.7% 52.1% 45.7% 49.4% 50.4% 50.3% 48.0%
CD24 47.5% 51.3% 43.7% 48.1% 49.2% 48.1% 44.9%
These are the districts Beto won but Republicans held. As SD08 was the Senate district that got away, so was CD24 for Congress. The difference is that SD08 had a candidate that raised money and had a visible campaign, with SD08 being far enough down the target list that no one really saw it coming as a close race. CD24 should have been on the list after 2016, but for whatever the reason it wasn’t. You just have to wonder what might have been. Mike Siegel did a good job with CD10 and will be back in 2018, hopefully with more help from the beginning. I still don’t know what to make of CD23, which was clearly winnable on paper but wasn’t as Democratic as I thought it would be given the overall conditions. Someone needs to do a deep dive and figure that out, or we’re going to keep pouring in millions of dollars and getting close losses to Will Hurd, who still hasn’t topped fifty percent in any race he’s run. Gina Ortiz Jones seems poised to run again, though I expect she’ll have company in the primary.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
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CD02 45.6% 49.0% 42.7% 47.0% 47.8% 47.2% 43.2%
CD03 44.2% 47.9% 40.5% 45.0% 46.0% 44.5% 41.8%
CD06 45.4% 48.0% 42.2% 46.1% 46.7% 46.0% 43.5%
CD21 47.6% 49.5% 42.8% 46.8% 47.8% 46.9% 43.4%
CD22 46.4% 49.3% 42.9% 46.9% 47.9% 47.9% 44.6%
CD25 44.8% 47.0% 40.6% 45.0% 45.7% 44.6% 41.8%
CD31 47.7% 48.4% 41.5% 45.5% 46.4% 45.3% 42.9%
These were the other competitive districts; each Dem finished within ten points of the Republican winner. CDs 21, 22, and 31 are on the DCCC list for 2020. Honestly, I think all seven of these deserve at least second-tier consideration. Note that MJ Hegar outperformed every Dem other than Beto, while Joe Kopser outperformed them all other than Beto and Justin Nelson. Only Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred can make those claims. If Texas really is winnable by the Democratic Presidential nominee, well, you can imagine the possibilities. Keep an eye on CD02, which I believe will benefit from being in Harris County in a Presidential year, and CD03, where Collin County will have a couple of hot State House races.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
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CD12 33.9% 39.1% 33.5% 37.0% 37.6% 36.7% 34.2%
CD14 39.3% 41.1% 36.8% 40.2% 40.7% 40.6% 38.4%
CD17 41.3% 44.8% 39.3% 43.6% 43.4% 42.9% 40.1%
CD26 39.0% 42.5% 35.8% 39.6% 40.3% 39.2% 36.4%
CD27 36.6% 38.9% 33.0% 38.0% 38.3% 38.5% 36.0%
CD36 27.4% 28.0% 24.5% 28.0% 28.0% 27.8% 25.7%
These are the other races I followed, mostly because the candidates managed to raise a respectable – or, in Dayna Steele’s case, a truly remarkable – amount of money. CD17, which is mostly Brazos and McLennan and a piece of Travis counties, and CD26, which is mostly Denton with a bit of Tarrant, might bear watching in the way that CDs 03 and 25 did last year, if they get energetic and interesting candidates. It would take something truly seismic for more than that to happen.
Dist 18 Dem Beto Lupe Collier Nelson Olson McAllen
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CD15 59.7% 57.4% 51.3% 55.7% 56.8% 56.4% 56.2%
CD28 NA 58.7% 52.7% 57.0% 58.5% 57.8% 56.6%
CD34 60.0% 57.7% 50.1% 55.8% 57.0% 56.8% 55.9%
We’ll see something like this in the State House races as well, but Republicans do have some Democrats to target beyond Fletcher and Allred. I don’t think 2020 is the year for a real challenge, but in a bad year for Team Blue you can see where you’d need to concentrate your concern. Keep your eyes open for shenanigans with these districts when 2021 rolls around and new maps are drawn. I’d call that the real short-term danger.
CD23 is easy to explain. When drawing the district Republicans exchanged high turnout hispanic pockets of population with low turnout pockets of hispanic population so that they wouldn’t technically violate the VRA but would make a swing district out of what would otherwise be a lean to likely D district. Last year the hispanic community was obviously more energized than in the average midterm but not as much as white liberals and conservatives who spiked it to Texas presidential levels.
The difference between most of the districts you listed being competitive and not competitive will be the early investment of outside groups and the Texas state democratic machine. Theoretically 10 districts Democrats could win with massive turnout- 2, 3, 6, 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 31. Of those the DCCC is only investing in the most likely 6 however if national groups will be targetting the US Senate race(Guarenteed with Castro in), and/or the electoral votes(most nominees probably would), then the investment in the other 4 is probably going to come later in the game.
Just to be clear- do I think dems will pick up 10 congressional seats in Texas? Probably not, that would be a landslide of epic proprotions and Texas would probably be going blue 4-6 points at the top of the ticket. But I’ll expect a net gain of 3-6 is very well within the realms of possibility/probablilty barring a major recovery of Trumps popularity in the state or a democratic nominee that sours on the national stage.
Christopher–I completely with everything you said except this:
then the investment in the other 4 is probably going to come later in the game.
I suppose they could invested in regions in Texas, but there really is no “later in the game” when it comes to these districts. Reapportionment and redistricting in 2021 will give us completely new districts.
What I mean by later in the game is further along in the 2019-2020 election cycle. The DCCC is already spending money to create campaign infrastructure and to soften up incumbents in 10, 21, 22, 23, 24, and 31. They will be high profile targets until election day 2020 I assume. With 2, 3, 6, and 25 I think the DCCC will eventually wind up investing resources but not until maybe summer 2020 at earliest.
That makes sense. Thanks for the clarification. As a resident of one of the second tier districts, I hope the DCCC invests here. It would also help with the neighboring swingy State House seats, which will likely determine who is drawing the maps for 2022.