Rasmussen does Texas

Posted on June 5, 2004 by Charles Kuffner

Jim D brings us (via Kos) the Rasmussen poll numbers for Texas:

May 1 – May 31
(Purported Margin of Error: +/- 3%)

Bush 55%
Kerry 38%
Other 3%
Not Sure 4%

Both Jim and Rasmussen note that Bush carried Texas by a 59-38 margin in 2000, though while Rasmussen calls this an “expected” result, Jim thinks Bush will hold at about 55% and predicts a 55-43 split this November.

I’m going to make a prediction of my own. If Jim is right and Bush beats Kerry here by 55-43, then I believe the Democrats will keep most, maybe even all, of their endangered incumbent Congressmen. If on the other hand it’s more like 59-38 again, they’ll be lucky to keep any one of them. Until I see some reliable polling on these individual races, I’m going to consider the statewide Presidential poll numbers as a proxy for them as a whole. Let’s keep an eye on this.

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One Response to Rasmussen does Texas

  1. Another Rice Grad says:
    June 11, 2004 at 7:26 pm

    I’m going to make a prediction of my own. If Jim is right and Bush beats Kerry here by 55-43, then I believe the Democrats will keep most, maybe even all, of their endangered incumbent Congressmen.

    Care to make a wager on this?

    Straight up, I’ll wager any amount of money you want.

    This isn’t braggadocio, it’s my way of saying the truth: you’re nuts if you believe that.

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