Always good to get the opposing perspective on these things.
Rep. Kenny Marchant
Eight House Republicans, including the three from districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, have been named to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of incumbents expected to face tough re-elections.
Members of the Patriot Program typically benefit from fundraising and organizational assistance. The list can be a signal to donors to direct checks to members in need.
“While Democrats continue to call them ‘targets,’ the NRCC will be empowering these members to stay on offense and run aggressive, organized campaigns against their Democratic challengers,” New York Rep. John Katko, Patriot Program chairman, said in a statement Friday.
[…]
Half of the GOP’s Patriot Program designees are from Texas. Two on the list — Texas’ Will Hurd and Pennsylvania’s Brian Fitzpatrick — were on the initial list for the 2018 cycle. Six of the 10 Republicans on that list lost last fall.
The four from Texas are among those you’d expect:
CD10 – McCaul
CD22 – Olson
CD23 – Hurd
CD31 – Carter
It’s more interesting to me to see the two that the NRCC chose not to include up front, namely CDs 21 and 24. CD24 was carried by Beto O’Rourke and was the closest of the districts in 2016 that wasn’t carried by Hillary Clinton. I’d easily make CD24 more vulnerable than CD31 (and that’s without taking into account the fact that MJ Hegar is running for Senate and not taking another crack at this), so its omission is a curious one to me. Maybe the NRCC knows something we don’t, maybe they’re lowering the priority on CD24 on the theory that it’s likely to be toast, maybe they’re happier with Kenny Marchant’s fundraising and cash on hand so far than they are with these others, or maybe it just worked out this way. For sure, this is a list that will grow over time, and as it does we can reassess the NRCC’s apparent defensive priorities.
In my post 2018 conversations with Republicans they tend to believe that 2018 was an aberration and Texas will snap back closer to 2016 results in the next presidential election. This is true among grassroots, candidates, and campaign workers. I tend to disagree especially with the President and Sen. Cornyn both polling with weak approvals in the state. Preliminary head to heads show both in danger of losing the state. Thats before you even factor in the DCCC targeting 8 districts(6 Republican, 2 Democratic) with early and heavy investment and the DLCC having its eyes set on the Texas state house. My guess- By 2020 Texas will be a true battleground state the ultimate victory of which will almost entirely rely on the strength of the ultimate Democratic nominee and how much he or she invests in the state.(hint it would be foolish of any nominee to write Texas off)