Early voting for the 2019 election is officially over. Let’s look at those numbers one last time:
Year Early Mail Total Mailed
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2019 137,460 15,304 152,764 26,824
2015 164,104 29,859 193,963 43,280
2013 87,944 21,426 109,370 30,572
The 2019 Day Twelve file is here, the final 2015 file is here, and the final 2013 file is here. The daily voter rosters are here.
Keir Murray used those voter rosters to break down who has voted so far.
Among these city voters through 10/31
7% were under age 35
14% were age 35-49
30% were age 50-64
49% were age 65+2/6
— Keir Murray (@houtopia) 10:04 AM – 1 November 2019
Of city voters through 10/31
55% were women
45% were men4/6
— Keir Murray (@houtopia) 10:04 AM – 1 November 2019
Of city voters through 10/31
2% had voted in 0 of the last 3 general elections
5% had voted in 1 of the last 3
18% had voted in 2 of the last 3
75% had voted in 3 of the last 3 general elections.This concludes your penultimate early voting update. Happy Friday!
6/6
— Keir Murray (@houtopia) 10:04 AM – 1 November 2019
This led to a response from poli sci prof Mark Jones:
Partisanship:
Hobby: (D=55%, R=33%, Indpt/Other=12%)
EVs: (D=54%, R=34%, Indpt/Other=13%)Ethnicity/Race
Hobby: (Anglo=51%, Black=34%, Latino=12%, Other=3%)
EVs: (Anglo=55%, Black=28%, Latino=11%, Other=6%)Gender
Hobby: (Women=53.5%, Men=46.5%)
EVs: (Women=55%, Men=45%)— Mark P. Jones (@MarkPJonesTX) 11:01 AM – 1 November 2019
In the survey:
African American Vote Intention was: Turner (59%), Boykins (13%), Buzbee (5%), King (2%), DK/Undecided (19%).
& Anglo Vote Intention: Buzbee (37%), Turner (34%), King (12%), Boykins (2%), DK/Undecided (13%).— Mark P. Jones (@MarkPJonesTX) 11:01 AM – 1 November 2019
Here’s the poll in question. The Friday turnout was over 33K, more than twice what Thursday’s was and over twenty percent of the entire amount, so the roster figures may be a bit different now. Turner’s path to avoiding a runoff has always been narrow, but it’s there. I’ll have some more thoughts about where we stand on Monday, but for now, please enjoy these numbers.
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