Let’s continue our walk through the filings. I’m going to take a look at some of the interesting Congressional races, skipping over the ones we just looked at.
CD01: It’s still not remotely competitive, but I once again want to salute Hank Gilbert for fighting the good fight against the preposterous Louie Gohmert. Seriously, if you saw a character based on Gohmert in a TV show or movie, you’d be complaining about what an insulting and outdated stereotype of a Texan he was. If only. Anyway, Hank’s candidacy is a reminder that good people do exist everywhere, and that Louie Gohmert is also complicit in Trump’s Ukraine-related crimes.
CD03: In the end, Tanner Do did file, joining Sean McCaffity and Lulu Seikaly. Not a top tier race, but on the radar.
CD17: Rick Kennedy is running again. He’s joined in the primary by David Jaramillo and William Foster. If you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go pour one out for Chet Edwards.
CD21: It’s Wendy Davis and Jennie Lou Leeder, and that’s it. I’m actually a little surprised no one else jumped in, though the way Davis has been crushing it at fundraising, as well as her name brand, it’s not that surprising.
CD23: Basically, it’s Gina Ortiz Jones and a bunch of people who have not established much of a presence in the race. I do not understand why Rosey Abuabara has not filed a finance report. Liz Wahl, the first person connected with CD23 this cycle, did not file.
CD24: We’re familiar with the main players in this group – Kim Olson, Candace Valenzuela, Crystal Fletcher, Jan McDowell, John Biggan. I still feel like we could have won this seat last year with a stronger nominee. As long as we avoid that mistake this time, we should have a great shot at it now.
CD25: Julie Oliver and Heidi Sloan, and that’s it. Another not-top-tier race, but still one to watch.
CD31: All five of the people mentioned here, plus one more, filed. I would really like to see at least one of them post a strong Q4 finance report.
Incumbents: We know about the challenges to Reps. Al Green and Sheila Jackson Lee, and of course the Henry Cuellar/Jessica Cisneros matchup is the marquee attraction. Other incumbents who face primary opponents: Joaquin Castro (CD20, two opponents), Eddie Bernice Johnson (CD30, three opponents), Marc Veasey (CD33, one opponent), Filemon Vela (CD34, two opponents), and Lloyd Doggett (CD35, one opponent). I do not expect any of them to have any trouble. All other Dem incumbents are unopposed in March.
Other races: None of these outside-the-Houston-area districts are competitive, but they all have contested primaries anyway: CDs 12, 13, 14, 26, 27. They contain a mix of new and repeat candidates. Godspeed to them all.
Next up, state offices (may break that into two posts), and judicial races. Let me know what you think.
CD23 should be a pickup, 22 and 24 are tossups, and 21 and 10 are lean R at this point.
I’m interested in the primary for the 24th with Valenzuela and Olson. Emily’s list went with Valenzuela, but Olson was on the 2018 ballot as a statewide candidate. Jan McDowell is running again but I think she’s likely to come in third this time. I think this will be a top ten national attention grabbing race in the general and a ton of national money will be spent on both sides. Van Duyne has some local support in Irving which is an increasingly blue area now but is a flawed candidate. It will come down to turnout in the Dallas/Denton increasingly Democratic precincts vs the red firewall which is NE Tarrant.
It looks like Michael Wolfe wants really to be a JP Judge. After bowing out for reelection as Harris County Department of Education Trustee at the last minute he is going against incumbent Russ Ridgeway Precinct 5 Place 1 with another candidate. All you have to do is google his name with a lot of negative stuff. His strategy in his runoff last year was to get endorsements of very conservative publications and hope that gets him the nomination. On the last day of early voting at the busiest location he never got out of his car and never approached voters. Obviously if you are challenging a two term incumbent you want to interact with voters. The Houston Chronicle wisely said he should never run for public office. He thinks he has some devine calling you make legal decisions.
Hey, can you identify who Elizabeth Hernandez is that is running a CD 08? I know Laura Jones well because she’s the San Jacinto County chair, but I have no clue who Elizabeth Hernandez is.
Marc – Unfortunately, hers is a common enough name that Google and Facebook were of no assistance. Hopefully at some point she’ll put up a web page or something, and Google results will find her.
CD23 should be a pickup, 22 and 24 are tossups, and 21 and 10 are lean R at this point.
With Pierce running in 22, I doubt it’s still a tossup. Honestly, I feel better about 21 than 22 at this point.
I would be startled if Republicans in District 22 nominated Pierce Bush. Greg Hill or Troy Nehls would be the leading contenders from my observation. But I do agree the district leans R.
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