A small bit of clarity in a muddled race.
MJ Hegar
MJ Hegar has widened her lead over her rivals for the Democratic nomination to the U.S. Senate, but she’s one of a dozen candidates in that Texas race who remain strangers to a large majority of their primary voters, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Those widely unknown Democrats are vying for the seat held by Republican John Cornyn, a well-known incumbent who first won election to the U.S. Senate in 2002. Cornyn faces four opponents in the Republican primary.
The large number of candidates almost ensures a May runoff after the March 3 primary, but it’s not clear who might be in it. Hegar had the support of 22% of self-identified Democratic primary voters in Texas — the only candidate with double-digit support. Six candidates were next in line, in a tight grouping that makes it impossible to say for sure who’s in second place. With support ranging from 5% to 9%, that group includes Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, Chris Bell, Amanda Edwards, Royce West, Annie “Mamá” Garcia and Sema Hernandez.
The rest said they preferred one of the five remaining candidates or “someone else,” or they refused to say who they’d vote for.
“There’s going to be a runoff, and Hegar is candidate one. But there is a six-car pileup for No. 2. Who knows who No. 2 is?” said Daron Shaw, co-director of the poll and a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin. “It’s extraordinarily volatile.”
That pretty much sums up my view of this. I’ve largely ignored Dem Senate primary polling, mostly because none of the candidates had much name recognition and that led to poll results with nobody having more than ten percent of the vote. Hegar is the one candidate who has raised significant money, she has the outside group VoteVets spending on her and also has the DSCC endorsement, and she ran a high-profile campaign for Congress in 2018, so she should be leading the pack. As for who is most likely to end up in the runoff with her, I’d pick Royce West (who should get a lot of votes in the Dallas area) and Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez as the favorites. But yes, the rest of the pack are all in the running, and most outcomes would not surprise me.
While I don’t think any of the candidates is all that likely to beat Cornyn, I thought Amanda Edwards had the best performance in the debate. Tzintzún was similarly strong. Hegar and Bell were slightly below them, and West seemed lost in his responses at times. I’m still planning to vote for West, but my wife, who is mostly only familiar with these candidates from the debate, will likely vote for someone else.
I listened to both hours on public radio while driving, and thought Tzintzun was the clear leader, that Bell was weak, and Edwards tended to talk eloquently but not much substance. Hegar gave a solid performance. West was better than I expected, but weak. I think Edwards would run stronger statewide in November than West, or even Hegar or Tzintzun, but think she would have been wise to stay in Houston and built up more of a record prior to seeking higher office.