On an overcast and drizzly day in much of Texas, early voting for the 2020 primary elections in some of the state’s most populous counties was up over turnout four years ago, despite warnings by political watchers that an ever-shifting Democratic presidential race might keep some voters at home as they wait for other states’ results.
By about 6 p.m., almost 7,000 people in Tarrant County had cast ballots, already more than the 6,908 that voted on the first day of early voting in the 2016 primaries.
By that time in Harris County, the more than 10,000 people had voted across 52 early voting locations was up significantly from the 7,840 in-person ballots from the first day of the 2016 primaries.
In Bexar, more than 8,000 had voted in person by Tuesday evening — up from 6,118 from Day 1 of early voting in 2016. About 6,000 had voted in Travis County by 4:45 p.m., up from 4,984 in 2016.
[…]
Some Democrats may be staying away from the polls as they hold out for the results of upcoming primaries in Nevada on Feb. 22 and South Carolina on Feb. 29, said Renee Cross, senior director at the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs.
Primary outcomes have the potential to upend the dynamics of a race. After the New Hampshire alone last week, three candidates — former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick, Sen. Michael Bennet and Andrew Yang — dropped out.
“Given the volatility of this primary for the Democrats, I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a much higher than usual strategic voter turnout,” Cross said.
We usually get the bulk of early voting towards the end of the EV period, in particular the last two days, so that’s not unusual. Perhaps it will be more pronounced this year. In any event, the figures cited by the Chron are for both parties combined – we won’t know what the D versus R numbers are until we see the reports from each county. And note that these numbers are for in person voting. There’s also mail ballots:
For some perspective, in 2008, the record-setting Democratic Primary in Texas where 411K votes were cast in Harris County, there were about 9,500 TOTAL mail ballots. We have surpassed that before early voting begins. #txlege #2020Primary
— Keir Murray (@houtopia) 12:24 PM – 18 February 2020
To be fair, Dems didn’t really do mail ballots in 2008. It’s still impressive. Here’s the Day One report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. As of Day One from those years :
Year Mail Early Total
==============================
2012 4,644 1,570 6,214
2016 6,344 3,292 9,636
2018 4,174 3,833 8,007
2020 11,571 6,819 18,390
2012 10,027 3,380 13,407
2016 8,172 4,548 12,720
2018 6,138 3,509 9,547
2020 12,890 5,411 18,301
So just on mail ballots, 2020 D is greater than 2016 D. In person turnout is slightly ahead of 2016, which had a final total of 227,280. We’ll have to pick things up to meet my prediction, but if the hypothesis that some folks will be waiting to see how Nevada and South Carolina go holds true, the opportunity to do so will be there. I myself will probably vote later this week. What was your experience if you voted, and what’s your plan if you haven’t done so yet?
The extended 7am to 7pm hours for the first four EV days in Harris County may be skewing the comparisons to previous primaries. To what degree, who knows?
I voted at 7:15 am yesterday at the downtown location, 1015 Commerce Basement. I was the only voter with about half a dozen Voter Registrar staff to assist me.
I have seen people posting Day 1 early voting numbers in Harris County that show democrat and republican as basically equal. Curious to see your thoughts on this.
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