More primary polling data for you.
Super Tuesday marks the first time that Michael Bloomberg will appear on the Democratic Primary ballot. To measure his impact on the race, we polled likely Texas Democratic Primary voters to see preferences with and without Bloomberg on the ballot.
Biden and Sanders lead the field
In the poll, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders are tied at 24% as voters first choice, followed by Michael Bloomberg at 17%, and Elizabeth Warren at 14%, while no other candidates come close to viability. As pictured in the graph below, Bloomberg has the biggest impact on Biden’s candidacy.
Warren is the strongest second choice
When voters were asked who their second choice was, Elizabeth Warren was the most popular choice.
Warren has the strongest approval rating, Bloomberg the worst
Warren leads the field with an approval/disapproval rating of 66/19, so it shouldn’t be surprising that she is everyone’s second choice. She is followed by Biden at 64/18 and Sanders at 60/27.
Conversely, Bloomberg, who has spent the most on advertising in Texas, had the worst overall approval/disapproval rating at 41/39. Of particular note are young voters, under the age of 45, who give him a 62% disapproval rating. These are remarkable numbers considering Democratic candidates have not aired a single attack ad against him. Given his struggles with the key Democratic constituency of younger voters, it is difficult to see how Bloomberg expands his base beyond these numbers.
Young voters are united, while Texans age 46 and up are divided
While Bloomberg is experiencing high disapproval among young voters, Sanders enjoys the most support from this constituency, followed by Warren.
Yet voters ages 46 and older are experiencing more of a divide, with their candidate preference divided largely among Biden, Bloomberg, Sanders, and Warren.
There are charts that accompany those other titled sections, which I have omitted for space, and there’s more to the poll, so go check it out. Full data and poll questions are here. Note that all respondents say that they are voting in the Dem primary, so there’s no general election aspect to this. One interesting bit of data from that PDF is that of the respondents, who all said they were voting in the Dem primary, 83% said they were Democrats, 2% said they were Republicans, and 15% said they were independents. Compare to the Derek Ryan analysis of the early voting data, which shows 64% of Democratic primary voters have an exclusively Democratic primary voting history, six percent have some of each, five percent have GOP-only history, and 25% have no primary history. Most of the latter have general election voting histories and are thus likely also Democrats in that sense, but overall there’s more political diversity to the Democratic primary electorate, and that is likely part of the reason turnout is up.
Anyway, that’s what it made me think about. Add this to the other primary polls we have, and the picture seems to be a close race. How close, and at what level the candidates who aren’t at the top cluster around, will have serious implications for the way delegates are allocated. Fifteen percent, statewide and in each State Senate district, is the magic number. We could get a couple of candidates walking away with a bunch of delegates, or as many as six candidates each getting some. We could be sorting through the aftermath of this for some time after the votes have all been counted. The Texas Signal has more.
As to Bloomberg an no attack ads against him from other candidates, that is a true statement but almost every news outlet including Fox is making sure that they attack Bloomberg.
Texas may or may not go blue this year, but one swing state that could go blue is Florida and the latest polls there show, Biden and Bloomberg both leading Sanders by double digits.
I just can’t see how someone that would ban fracking an boasts about ending oil companies can win in Texas or Pennsylvania.
Manny,
Is Sanders the one who said he would ban fracking?
Manny,
I saw a Tom Steyer ad last night that attacked Bloomberg for being a racist, while at the same time highlighting his own racism, starting a bank that very specifically refused to loan money to white men.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/article/Billionaire-Tom-Steyer-launches-attack-ads-in-15072232.php
Brad,
Yes, Sanders is one of several that want to ban fracking outright. The others just want to kneecap it, not kill it completely:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/policy-2020/climate-change/fracking-ban/
Manny,
I saw a Steyer attack ad on Bloomberg last night. He was calling Bloomberg a racist, while promoting his own racism….creating a bank that refused to loan money to white men.
https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/election/article/Billionaire-Tom-Steyer-launches-attack-ads-in-15072232.php
Brad,
Sanders is one of several, including Warren, who do indeed want to outright ban fracking. The others merely want to kneecap it. WaPo shows you who wants what:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/politics/policy-2020/climate-change/fracking-ban/
Brad it was Sanders and Warren, right now it is not looking at for Sanders in South Carolina, latest poll shows Biden was a 20 point lead over Sanders.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-biden-crushing-sanders-south-150024493.html
Bill I guess, either one would be fine with you, especially Bloomberg he is richer and therefore smarter that Trump. Isn’t that how you measure smart by how much they have?
But I like Brad’s definition of you as a Russian bot.
looking good for Sanders
Manny,
My preference for the DNC nominee is Bernie Sanders. That would pretty much guarantee a R takeover of the House and Trump’s reelection. Despite all the maligning of Trump by the left, anyone with critical thinking skills can see that Trump did not crash the economy, did not lead us into new wars, or most of the other fearmongering stuff he was accused of….in other words, not horrible, even if you disagree with some of his policies.
All Trump would need to do to win against Bernie is run ads showing Bernie speaking. That will scare the shit out of moderate voters, and the great thing about Bernie is, he’s a true believer. He’s not going to tone it down or apologize. Look at his doubling down on Castro. He knows that will sink him in FL, and he could care less. THAT is the guy I want running in the general.
* could not care less
Bill Danielsovsky,
Alternatively…
Despite all the trumpeting of Trump by the Right, anyone with critical thinking skills can see that Trump has no credit for success of the economy, got lucky in not leading us into new wars, and was intellectually dishonest on turning a blind eye to the stuff he actually did
LOL @ Brad!
Just curious, what date can we officially say “yup, it is now Trump’s economy?” Will that be after he gets reelected?
You ascribe Trumps success to random luck….have you considered that maybe nobody is that lucky? I mean, you are trying to tell us that Trump is Forrest Gump on steroids.
Nobody is this lucky. That’s why Forrest Gump was such a good movie…..suspending reality. Well, that is you, suspending reality to claim that Trump just happens to be the luckiest son of a bitch in the history of mankind.
@Bill totally agree a Bernie nomination would be the collapse of the Democrats. Bloomberg for some reason thinks he’s Trumps biggest threat when the only thing keeping him in this race is literally his money. The democrats speak of how divisive and racist Republicans and the administration is when they are the most split and racist. i as a black can attest to all the things the current admin. has done for our community alone, regardless if other blacks see it or not.
Adoile, do tell – what exactly has the current administration done that was specifically designed to benefit the African American community ?
Oops, looks like Trump ‘accidentally’ got us a peace deal in Afghanistan.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/29/US-Taliban-sign-historic-peace-deal/9621582982385/
Worst. Warmonger. Ever.
Bill there are two things that are consistent in life at this moment, one is Trump is a liar and the other is Bill is a liar.
I think I will wait and see how the peace deal works out, it could be like that great deal he had with North Korea. Or maybe how China was going to buy all those farm products…
Devil is in the details…. there already seems to be a dispute over the US-written prisoner swap requirements.
I’d hold my breath on the whole Nobel Peace Price there, POTUS.
Dear Bill…
https://www.democracynow.org/2020/3/3/headlines/us_to_start_troop_withdrawal_as_taliban_vows_to_resume_attacks_and_afghan_govt_rejects_prisoner_swap
#SoMuchWinning
What’s your point?
Obama: I will end George Bush’s war.
[war not ended]
Trump: I will end George Bush’s war.
[begins withdrawing troops]
Advantage: Trump
i don’t get it, C.L., liberals like you used to be firmly anti war. Trump is ending a useless, no win war, but since it’s Trump doing it, OMG, Orange Man bad! If Obama had done this, I’m guessing you’d be feeling a tingling up your leg?
What is your game plan here? You want Trump to keep the war going until 2025 so that a Democrat president can end it? I’d like you be the one that has to call the families of the dead and horribly wounded, to tell them that their soldier is dead or in pieces, and you can explain to them WHY they needed to die or be wounded.
Bill, my point was, it doesn’t appear like Trump ‘accidentally got us a peace deal’ after all.
But nice deflection.
Shut up Bill
Shut up Bill
robert I am literally laughing out loud