The Railroad Commissioner primary was a bit like the Senate primary – multiple candidates (though not nearly as many), not a whole lot of money, but the candidate who did best in fundraising was also the leading votegetter. Here’s a look at the top 25 counties in terms of votes cast for the Railroad Commissioner’s race:
County ALONZO CASTAÑEDA STONE WATSON Total
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All 503,666 592,770 380,236 277,578 1,754,250
HARRIS 77,618 85,166 59,552 40,428 262,764
DALLAS 56,824 57,822 48,718 36,255 199,619
TRAVIS 30,199 97,284 37,641 20,290 185,414
BEXAR 50,228 62,708 22,880 16,583 152,399
TARRANT 35,318 36,767 28,238 25,021 125,344
COLLIN 15,227 22,793 18,487 9,250 65,757
EL PASO 25,353 21,426 6,750 7,065 60,594
FORT BEND 12,550 14,895 16,826 12,685 56,956
DENTON 10,804 21,541 14,966 6,851 54,162
WILLIAMSON 11,031 19,375 10,852 9,924 51,182
HIDALGO 24,057 15,382 6,617 3,699 49,755
CAMERON 11,849 9,267 3,691 3,558 28,365
WEBB 13,080 7,841 2,455 1,850 25,226
HAYS 5,161 6,451 6,152 4,059 21,823
MONTGOMERY 4,820 5,963 5,248 3,898 19,929
NUECES 7,364 5,914 3,146 2,424 18,848
BRAZORIA 4,643 4,659 4,961 4,502 18,765
GALVESTON 4,020 5,225 4,914 3,127 17,286
BELL 4,818 4,619 4,056 3,577 17,070
JEFFERSON 4,640 3,132 3,704 4,813 16,289
LUBBOCK 3,462 3,858 2,741 2,081 12,142
MCLENNAN 2,308 3,078 3,623 2,290 11,299
SMITH 2,536 2,512 2,466 2,985 10,499
BRAZOS 3,000 3,429 2,571 1,488 10,488
ELLIS 2,524 2,266 2,410 1,737 8,937
Chrysta Castañeda
Chrysta Castaneda, who led the pack with nearly 34% of the total vote, also led the way in 13 of these 25 counties, including the top six and eight of the top ten. That’s a pretty good recipe for success in the runoff as well. She led in Dallas County, which is the home of runnerup Roberto Alonzo, who represented a State House district in Dallas County for 26 years. Alonzo led in the five big predominantly Latino counties – El Paso, Hidalgo, Cameron, Webb, and Nueces – plus Bell and Ellis Counties. Castaneda leads Alonzo by five points going into the runoff, which is hardly insurmountable, and other than Travis County her lead over him in the biggest counties was small. I feel like Castaneda’s big lead in Travis County is a significant advantage for her for the runoff. It’s hard to project anything based on past primary runoffs because the data set is so small, but given that there will be a Senate runoff as well, and given that Travis County was also a strong performer for MJ Hegar, it could deliver a decent margin for Castaneda in May. If that happens, it may be hard for Alonzo to make up the ground elsewhere.
Of the other candidates, Kelly Stone led in Fort Bend, Brazoria, and McLennan Counties, while Mark Watson topped the field in Smith and Jefferson. There’s another similarity to the Senate race – everyone got to be a leader of the pack. I have no idea how their voters might go in the runoff – neither has made any endorsement, as far as I can tell, and in all honesty that likely would be just a marginal factor. Turnout always drops quite a bit in primary runoffs, and with the coronavirus situation happening now, who knows what effect that may have. I see Castaneda as the solid favorite in this race, but Alonzo can pull it off if he can get his own message out.
It’d be helpful if you did this for the Republican Primary where an incumbent engineer with millions of dollars and a boy wonder muscular look was defeated.
Alonzo’s loss in Dallas is striking. If he can’t win in his backyard, where he also lost a primary in 2018, I can’t see him winning the runoff.