Here I continue with a look at the State Rep races outside the Houston area where Dems are competing to flip seats. I did not look at the districts the Dems are defending, but I may return to that at a later date. Part One of my look at the July reports for state races is here, and Part 2 (the Houston-area State Rep districts) is here.
Janet Dudding, HD14
John Raney, HD14
Eric Holguin, HD32
Todd Hunter, HD32
Keke Williams, HD54
Brad Buckley, HD54
Angela Brewer, HD64
Lynn Stucky, HD64
Sharon Hirsch, HD66
Matt Shaheen, HD66
Lorenzo Sanchez, HD67
Jeff Leach, HD67
John Gibson, HD84
John Frullo, HD84
Ray Ash, HD89
Candy Noble, HD89
Jeff Whitfield, HD92
Jeff Cason, HD92
Lydia Bean, HD93
Matt Krause, HD93
Alisa Simmons, HD94
Tony Tinderholt, HD94
Joe Drago, HD96
David Cook, HD96
Elizabeth Beck, HD97
Craig Goldman, HD97
Jennifer Skidonenko, HD106
Jared Patterson, HD106
Joanna Cattanach, HD108
Morgan Meyer, HD108
Brandy Chambers, HD112
Angie Chen Button, HD112
Celina Montoya, HD121
Steve Allison, HD121
Dist Candidate Raised Spent Loan On Hand
==============================================================
HD14 Dudding 30,064 5,975 782 24,482
HD14 Raney 40,550 13,736 0 123,179
HD32 Holguin 51,216 26,981 0 18,942
HD32 Hunter 43,750 293,821 0 2,125,012
HD54 Williams 66,107 16,840 0 26,165
HD54 Buckley 33,045 30,313 30,300 77,729
HD64 Brewer 55,651 14,009 0 40,548
HD64 Stucky 66,575 42,411 0 199,065
HD66 Hirsch 218,639 27,130 0 171,691
HD66 Shaheen 45,965 48,563 122,000 204,862
HD67 Sanchez 71,556 52,034 28,610 3,008
HD67 Leach 141,823 137,712 0 412,306
HD84 Gibson 4,310 2,738 0 4,533
HD84 Frullo 16,500 40,925 0 331,505
HD89 Ash 790 137 10,376 411
HD89 Noble 17,720 5,260 130,000 116,812
HD92 Whitfield 201,313 73,782 19,700 187,824
HD92 Cason 81,255 65,061 5,000 50,591
HD93 Bean 118,475 57,827 0 107,277
HD93 Krause 127,704 41,027 0 589,727
HD94 Simmons 62,265 28,203 1,090 38,466
HD94 Tinderholt 15,850 25,503 0 71,180
HD96 Drago 132,090 21,992 0 109,105
HD96 Cook 54,550 84,214 0 288,908
HD97 Beck 163,004 44,177 0 162,996
HD97 Goldman 292,777 85,870 0 866,662
HD106 Skidonenko 51,268 21,076 5,000 31,675
HD106 Patterson 79,575 125,850 0 91,055
HD108 Cattanach 181,290 65,495 0 122,179
HD108 Meyer 247,710 107,924 0 517,790
HD112 Chambers 168,585 61,104 0 157,394
HD112 Button 77,555 76,281 0 756,758
HD121 Montoya 90,861 13,313 0 61,233
HD121 Allison 73,190 94,274 235,000 113,077
As before, remember that those who were unopposed in March are reporting for the entire six month period of January 1 through June 30, those who won a contested March primary are reporting from February 23 through June 30, and those who had to win a primary runoff are reporting from February 23 through July 6. Check the individual reports if you’re not sure, and bear in mind that the presence or absence of a competitive race in this timeframe may have an effect on the numbers here.
While we saw a couple of Houston-area challengers raising serous money, we see quite a few more here. Several of them – Sharon Hirsch, Lydia Bean, Joanna Cattanach, Brandy Chambers, and Celina Montoya – are all repeat candidates, with Hirsch (who lost 50.3 to 49.7), Cattanach (50.1 to 49.9) and Chambers (51.0 to 49.0) being among the closest losses from 2018. The cash-on-hand situation is against them, though less so for Hirsch and Montoya than the others, but they will all have the resources they will need to compete. Overall, you really have to hand it to the Metroplex contenders, in Dallas and Tarrant and Collin and Denton, who really showed up in the first half of this year. If we do take back the House, this is where the bulk of it will happen.
We talked about the incumbency advantage in the last post, and wow does that vary from incumbent to incumbent. You have Todd Hunter, in a class by himself, with more typical results from the likes of Craig Goldman, Angie Chen Button, Morgan Meyer, Matt Krause, and Jeff Leach. Jared Patterson and Brad Buckley are first-termers, so you can cut them some slack; Candy Noble and Steve Allison are also first-termers, who have perhaps been a bit more diligent about the homework. Jeff Cason is defending an open seat. David Cook, also defending an open seat, is the honor roll recipient among the non-incumbent Republicans. These folks are all within the range of what one might expect, though I’d also expect Cason to step it up a notch if I were on that team.
And then there are the incumbents that make you go “Hmmm”. John Raney isn’t used to having competitive elections, but he’s been in the House since a 2011 special election, and you’d think he’d have a few bucks lying around just because. Tony Tinderholt has been targeted in November before, and as such his $15K raised in the period is just baffling. (Yes, I know, he is recovering from coronavirus, but as far as I can tell that was all in July, after this reporting period.) Now I feel like I really do need to check the targeted Dem incumbents, just to see if there are any equivalents to these guys in there.
As before, I suspect the 30-day reports will tell a much more revealing story. If you think there’s anything I’ve missed, let me know.