So yeah, after my previous entry I went and talked myself into checking on the finance reports from the 10 non-Houston-area seats that Dems flipped in 2018, plus four others of interest. It’s a sickness, I admit it, but here we are. Part One of my look at the July reports for state races (statewide, State Senate, and SBOE) is here, Part 2 (the Houston-area State Rep districts) is here, and Part 3 (the other seats Dems are challenging) is here.
Ryan Guillen, HD31
Marian Knowlton, HD31
Abel Herrero, HD34
James Hernandez, HD34
Erin Zwiener, HD45
Carrie Isaac, HD45
Vikki Goodwin, HD47
Jennifer Fleck, HD47
Jennifer Fleck SPAC, HD47
James Talarico, HD52
Lucio Valdez, HD52
Michelle Beckley, HD65
Kronda Thimesch, HD65
Eddie Morales, HD74
Ruben Falcon, HD74
Ana-Maria Ramos, HD102
Linda Koop, HD102
Terry Meza, HD105
Gerson Hernandez, HD105
Victoria Neave, HD107
Samuel Smith, HD107
Rhetta Bowers, HD113
Will Douglas, HD113
John Turner, HD114
Luisa Del Rosal, HD114
Julie Johnson, HD115
Karyn Brownlee, HD115
John Bucy, HD136
Mike Guevara, HD136
Dist Candidate Raised Spent Loan On Hand
==============================================================
HD31 Guillen 41,395 22,139 0 439,602
HD31 Knowlton 11,329 7,239 0 10,678
HD34 Herrero 41,245 32,142 0 252,892
HD34 Hernandez 42,546 10,857 0 29,863
HD45 Zwiener 131,664 101,551 0 101,387
HD45 Isaac 98,202 83,016 0 24,129
HD47 Goodwin 137,230 63,990 19,000 170,429
HD47 Fleck 19,064 32,948 19,188 4,342
HD52 Talarico 148,975 70,941 0 130,711
HD52 Valdez 13,671 6,398 0 6,901
HD65 Beckley 64,004 44,016 0 48,569
HD65 Thimesch 88,416 63,987 10,000 63,885
HD74 Morales 15,950 13,593 215,000 13,000
HD74 Falcon 1,600 2,419 5,000 0
HD102 Ramos 72,737 36,654 310 51,422
HD102 Koop 88,745 77,489 0 48,630
HD105 Meza 42,266 11,670 0 78,310
HD105 Hernandez 9,794 9,549 8,500 9,789
HD107 Neave 64,849 22,869 0 61,931
HD107 Smith 9,107 4,693 2,400 7,044
HD113 Bowers 96,329 59,424 0 68,221
HD113 Douglas 240,579 71,091 0 266,347
HD114 Turner 157,316 145,704 7,000 425,567
HD114 Del Rosal 120,708 151,281 10,000 255,201
HD115 Johnson 108,452 72,228 0 236,842
HD115 Brownlee 13,970 6,597 11,000 28,698
HD136 Bucy 79,511 45,209 46,375 103,770
HD136 Guevara 13,500 11,275 0 2,588
HD74 is an open seat. HDs 31 and 34 are the two purplest seats held by Dems from a year before 2018, with HD74 being the third-purplest. All three are on the Texas Elects watch list. HD107 was flipped by Rep. Neave in 2016, and she withstood a drunk driving arrest to win re-election easily in 2018. All of the other seats were flipped by Dems in 2018.
Reps. Erin Zwiener and Michelle Beckley had primary opponents, while everyone else had a free pass in March. Zwiener had a more expensive primary than Beckley, but she raised more and has more on hand, so no worries there. John Turner is the only other Dem to have spent a significant amount in the first six months of the year, and it was fairly normal stuff – staff, contract, and consulting salaries and fees, and monthly rental for an office were the bulk of it. An $18K charge for polling was the single biggest (and most interesting) expense.
Turner, son of former Congressman Jim Turner, is one of two Dem incumbents whose opponent raised at least $100K in this period. Turner’s opponent Luisa Del Rosal, who actually spent more than she raised over the past six months, has an impressive $255K on hand, in part because she’s been running and raising money since early 2019 – she has a July 2019 finance report, so she’s been fundraising for well over a year now, as long as Turner has been an incumbent. He maintains a significant cash advantage, but she’s got the resources to put up a fight.
Also impressive on the Republican side is Will Douglas in HD113, who raised double what Del Rosas did in the first six months of 2020, and now has a big cash advantage on first term Rep. Rhetta Bowers. Bowers’ $96K raised wasn’t bad, but she started out with a lot less on hand and is almost $200K behind Douglas. Rep. Michelle Beckley, who was outraised by challenger Kronda Thimesch and has less cash on hand, is the only other Dem incumbent in that position. Ana Ramos was slightly outraised by Linda Koop, the former incumbent in HD102, but she holds a modest cash on hand lead, thanks in part to Koop having to spend more (Koop had a primary opponent).
I should note that both Bowers, who won in 2018 by seven points, and Turner, who won by 11, are in districts that performed pretty strongly for Dems in 2018. Beckley had a closer win, but her district has been trending rapidly Democratic. They have challenges, but none of them are in a weak position to begin with.
Beyond that, Dem incumbents look to be in pretty solid shape. We should also acknowledge that there will be plenty of money spent by third party groups, and that everyone here is likely to raise a bunch more money in the interim. As I’ve said elsewhere, the 30 day reports will tell a better story. I’m mildly concerned about HDs 65 and 113, and I’m not going to rest easy until after November, but I see no red flags. That’s not a bad place to be.
Del Rosal has raised a ton of money but she has ties to the Tower-Cox family so its no wonder. This would be a likely D seat if it wasn’t for her fundraising. Clinton won this district by 9, and Beto won it by 15. Biden wins this seat by at least 15, maybe getting closer to 20. I don’t see John Turner losing even though this was the establishment GOP district for decades. Preston Hollow and Lake Highlands don’t pull the GOP votes they used to, and the anti-Trump factor is huge downballot.
Bowers doesn’t raise a lot of money but she is a good vote getter. I think this is a lean D seat as well. Douglass is trying to keep this close and maybe gets lucky, but it’s more about setting up some sort of matchup in 2022 when the LRB redraws the district.
I think 65 is lean D. SE Denton is moving away from the GOP, but they still have some voting strength in some of the higher income areas of Carrollton and Highland Village. Will be a close race.
I think 102 and 107 are likely D. These districts are moving away from the GOP fast.