Part 1 – Counties around Harris
Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post.
County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift
=========================================================================
Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 250,194 227,868 73,147
Denton 157,579 80,978 170,603 110,890 221,829 188,023 42,795
Ellis 39,574 13,881 44,941 16,253 56,651 27,513 -3,445
Johnson 37,661 10,496 44,382 10,988 54,523 16,418 -10,940
Kaufman 24,846 9,472 29,587 10,278 37,474 18,290 -3,810
Parker 39,243 7,853 46,473 8,344 61,584 12,789 -17,405
Rockwall 27,113 8,120 28,451 9,655 38,842 18,149 -1,700
Wise 17,207 3,221 20,670 3,412 26,986 4,953 -8,047
Most of the attention goes to Collin and Denton counties, for good reason. Even as they stayed red this year, they have shifted tremendously in a blue direction. Basically, a whole lot of Dallas has spilled over the county lines, and the result is what you’d expect. There’s not a whole lot to say here – demography, time, and continued organizing should do the trick.
But once you get past those two counties, it’s a whole lot of red. The Republicans have netted more total votes since 2012 from the other six counties than the Dems have from Denton. Parker County, west of Tarrant, home of Weatherford, ninety percent white and over eighty percent Republican, more than twice as populous now as it was in 1990, is A Problem. Johnson County, south of Tarrant and with nearly identical demographics as Parker while also growing rapidly, is right behind it.
I don’t know that there’s much to be done about those two. There does appear to be more promise in Ellis (south of Dallas, home of Waxahachie), Kaufman (southeast of Dallas), and Rockwall counties. The first two are slightly less white than Parker and Johnson, and all three saw enough growth in Democratic voters in 2020 (at least at the Presidential level; we’ll need to check back on other races) to mostly offset the growth in Republican voting. It’s almost certainly the case that proximity to Dallas County is better for Democratic prospects than proximity to Tarrant. Again, that doesn’t address a big part of the problem, but it at least provides a place to start.
I don’t have a whole lot more to offer, so I’m interested in hearing what my readers from this part of the state have to say. I’ll be honest, I had not given any thought to the geography of this before I started writing these posts. Hell, in most cases I had to do some research to know which counties to look up. I hope that by doing so I’ve helped you think about this.
The center of mass of both population and Democratic strength is heading North, so Republicans are more likely to draw more districts like CDs 5, 6, and 12 than CDs 3, 24, 26, and 32. My State House 2020 reapportionment forecasts both Collin and Denton gaining half a district. Specifically:
Collin goes from 4 + a partial district to 5 + a smaller partial district.
Denton goes from 4 whole districts to 4 + a partial district.
Rockwall’s population is really close to 10% of Collin’s population and growing at the same rate, so it will gain around 5% of a new district. Everywhere else, including Dallas and Tarrant, will have the same number or slightly smaller partial districts.
Per Blank, the REAL fun is going to be redistricting state House seats in the truly rural areas. Due to outright population declines that are continuing in much of West Texas even with suburbs on the I-35 corridor (and selected exurbs) turning bits more non-Republican, GOP incumbents out west are going to be forced to run against each other, or else fight with marginal GOP suburban candidates (think Former Fetus Forever Fuckwad Stickland’s district) in and after redistricting.
And, yes, I’ve blogged about the pending redistricting. https://socraticgadfly.blogspot.com/2019/09/should-drew-springer-be-in-trouble-well.html
What’s just as important as the voters is who is administering the election….and in Tarrant County, that’s Heider Garcia, who has extensive experience in voting systems…..in VENEZUELA, with Smartmatic, part of the Dominion voting systems that are the crux of Trump’s argument of massive counting fraud.
Fresh from getting Hugo Chavez and Maduro ‘elected,’ heeeeere’s Heider to help Tarrant County with their election.
https://archive.is/RDXZb
Texas was smart enough to ban Dominion voting hardware from our state, but were lax in keeping out people like Heider.
Bill, you are an idiot. Heider left Venezuela in 2012, so had nothing to do with Maduro’s election. If anything, he, like many of my Venezuelan colleagues, left Venezuela to get away from the worsening situation.
Your guy lost, get over it.
Ross,
You are naive if you think that Chavez didn’t hand pick his successor Maduro. It follows that the ‘infrastructure’ to make that happen was already in place at the time of Hugo’s death in 2013.
Let’s face it. You have to go all in on the supposition that none of Trump’s allegations, made in Rudy’s presser are true, because, if they are true, it’s horrific and indefensible. I guess we’ll see.
Bill the cheating here in Texas was done by the Republicans using the Karl Rove method. Cheat a little in each county so that it would seem not to make a difference. The Republicans added, I estimate, about 100-1000 votes in most if not all of Texas counties. I will assume that they did that throughout the United States.
It wasn’t Russia that helped Trump, it was the power-hungry American haters, the Republicans.
Bill Daniels is a fraud himself.
And, the only thing “true” in Rudy’s presser was his bad hair dye.
Dude, even TUCKER isn’t on board!
So Bill, get back to us after Georgia announces the results of the manual recount. It will either confirm or demolish Trump’s accusations regarding Dominion Voting Systems which is used statewide in Georgia. And while you’re at it, if Dominion flipped Georgia to Biden (it didn’t, but for argument’s sake), why didn’t it flip Louisiana and Alaska, too? Both of those states went for Trump and use Dominion statewide.
crickets.
Georgia has been certified. For President-elect Biden.
Kuff,
I think you’re right about Kaufman, Rockwall, and Ellis to a lesser extent. Kaufman and Ellis is where the new affordable housing is. Kinda the Hays county of Dallas area. Most of the move ins were young white families who either grew up in East Dallas suburbs, or East Texas but wanted to be close to jobs. Black and latino families are starting to move to these areas, changing the politics slightly.
Rockwall is middle to upper middle class. Lake Ray Hubbard is a political demark, separating mainly blue Garland and purple Rowlett from Red Rockwall, but there’s a ton of college educated voters there. The local Dems are working hard but need help in Rockwall and Kaufman.
I think Ellis is starting to be less red around Red Oak in the northern part near the county line. Waxahachie/Midlothian are still tough but the middle class growth is coming because of the proximity to logistics/distribution jobs. The TX Democratic Party cannot take the outer suburban counties in DFW for granted anymore and cede them over to the GOP.
Enjoy your pyrrhic victory, xirs. This election fraud will be laid out in court. Oh, and guess who is responsible for the circuit courts in question?
https://www.supremecourt.gov/about/circuitassignments.aspx
Spoiler alert:
MI – Brett M. Kavanaugh
WI – Amy Coney Barrett
PA – Samuel A. Alito
GA – Clarence Thomas
Bill, you are a very sick individual, mentally. I would suggest that you get rid of anything that could allow you to take your own life.
In the counties around Tarrant, Parker has some nicer upper-middle income college educated suburbs, which feel more like White Settlements in West Fort Worth. By contrast, Johnson is much more rural with standard I-35 fast-food/gas station development. To my knowledge, there is very little Democratic activity in either area.
Bill, If the justices you list overturn the election results, I would be all in favor of them being impeached and removed from office. I doubt they will do that, and the unprincipled piece of shit scumbag whose ass you worship will be carried screaming out of the White House on January 20th by the same Secret Service agents who have been protecting his sorry backside, and dumped unceremoniously on the sidewalk outside, to be met by a crowd screaming “loser, loser, loser”, followed closely by Federal agents walking up to him saying “You have the right to remain silent…”
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