From Twitter:
.
That won’t affect most races, and it probably does not affect any Harris-County specific races. But if provisional ballots are like that statewide, it could affect larger, close elections. I’m particularly watching Chief Justice for the 14th Court of Appeals, which is very close.— Michael Adams-Hurta (@adams_hurta) 02:52 PM – 14 November 2020
.
Update: a quick perusal of other counties, and it does not look like other counties are having quite so many provisional ballot counts added.— Michael Adams-Hurta (@adams_hurta) 03:03 PM – 14 November 2020
You want to get my attention on Twitter, that’s a good way to do it. For comparison purposes, the unofficial final election night returns that the Clerk’s office sent out are here. The still-unofficial (because they haven’t yet been certified by Commissioners Court) results are here, though that URL may be temporary. A couple of highlights:
– Final turnout is now given as 1,656,686, an increase of 7,113 over the originally given total of 1,649,573. Turnout was 68.14% as a percentage of registered voters.
– Joe Biden’s lead over Donald Trump grew from 212,152 total votes to 217,563 total votes. The final score is now 918,193 to 700,630 for Biden.
– A couple of the close races changed by tiny amounts. Lizzie Fletcher’s margin of victory grew from 10,217 to 10,475 total votes. Jon Rosenthal lost 17 votes off his lead to Justin Ray to finish exactly 300 votes ahead, while Gina Calanni fell an additional 59 votes behind Mike Schofield.
– The two appellate court races cited by Adams-Hurta were of great interest to me. Amparo Guerra is leading on the SOS election night results page over Terry Adams by 1,367 votes out of 2.3 million votes cast. Meanwhile, Jane Robinson trailed Tracy Christopher by 4,311 votes. Could either of these races be affected? I had to check the other county election results pages as well, to see what final results were now in. This is what I got:
County TC EN JR EN TC fin JR fin Change
=============================================================
Austin 11,440 2,680 11,606 2,698 -148
Brazoria 91,378 57,684 91,378 57,684 0
Chambers 17,200 3,720 17,200 3,720 0
Colorado 7,351 2,281 7,351 2,281 0
Fort Bend 161,423 176,466 161,532 176,662 87
Galveston 94,759 54,178 95,355 54,623 -151
Grimes 9,305 2,647 9,318 2,650 - 10
Harris 734,315 838,895 733,878 841,923 3,465
Waller 14,245 7,501 14,302 7,556 - 2
Washington 12,852 3,905 12,852 3,905 0
Total 1,154,268 1,149,957 1,154,772 1,153,702
County TA EN AG EN TA fin AG fin Change
=============================================================
Austin 11,468 2,632 11,632 2,649 -147
Brazoria 91,430 57,174 91,430 57,174 0
Chambers 17,180 3,656 17,180 3,656 0
Colorado 7,393 2,217 7,393 2,217 0
Fort Bend 162,238 175,460 162,338 175,664 104
Galveston 95,057 53,375 95,643 53,820 -151
Grimes 9,351 2,570 9,364 2,572 - 11
Harris 728,402 842,905 727,952 845,951 3,496
Waller 14,303 7,459 14,364 7,508 - 12
Washington 13,043 3,784 13,043 3,784 0
Total 1,149,865 1,151,232 1,150,339 1,154,995
The first table is Tracy Christopher (TC) versus Jane Robinson (JR), the second is Terry Adams (TA) versus Amparo Guerra (AG). The first two columns represent the Election Night (EN) numbers as posted on their SOS pages, the second columns are the final numbers now posted on the county sites. Brazoria, Chambers, Colorado, and Washington still have their Election Night results up, so those have no changes. The Change column is from the Democratic candidates’ perspective, so a negative number means the Republican netted more votes.
Not surprisingly, the Harris results had the biggest effect, but in the end the winners were the same. Robinson now trails by an even smaller 1,070 vote margin, while Guerra has a bit more room to breathe with a 4,656 vote lead. Given the deltas in the other counties, my guess is that both Dems will see a small net loss. A real nail-biter in both cases, and it wouldn’t have taken much to change the outcomes. For what it’s worth, the two Dems who won these races this year were both Latinas, the two Dems that lost were not. Both Veronica Rivas Molloy and Amparo Guerra had larger leads in Harris County than Jane Robinson and Tamika Craft had, and that was what ultimately propelled them to victory. Maybe that would be different in a different years – Dems won all these races in 2018, remember – but this year it was consequential.
I suppose it’s possible there could be recounts in some of these races, but honestly, nothing is close enough to be changed. It’s a rare year that has no recounts, though, so we’ll see. Commissioners Court will certify the Harris County results on Tuesday, the statutory deadline.
Pingback: The poll workers’ stories – Off the Kuff