Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
Other jurisdictions
Appellate courts, Part 1
Appellate courts, Part 2
As you know, I use the average totals and percentages from local judicial races as my go-to metric for determining partisan indexes for each district. That’s because these are two-candidate races, and generally speaking people vote in them on the party label and not on detailed knowledge of the individual candidates. I’ve looked at this data in various ways over the years – in 2018, it was all about undervoting, as my contribution to the deeply annoying great straight-ticket voting debate. This year, I just want to provide as comprehensive a look as I can at what the partisan index of each district is, so without further ado here are the averages and minimum/maximum values for each district:
Dist Avg R Avg D Avg R% Avg D%
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CD02 180,657 152,260 54.26% 45.74%
CD07 152,705 147,943 50.79% 49.21%
CD08 25,930 14,830 63.62% 36.38%
CD09 37,855 119,136 24.11% 75.89%
CD10 103,043 58,975 63.60% 36.40%
CD18 59,751 178,574 25.07% 74.93%
CD22 21,796 19,965 52.19% 47.81%
CD29 49,285 100,975 32.80% 67.20%
CD36 82,990 47,534 63.58% 36.42%
SBOE4 106,801 333,572 24.25% 75.75%
SBOE6 387,513 345,132 52.89% 47.11%
SBOE8 219,698 161,490 57.64% 42.36%
SD04 55,837 22,370 71.40% 28.60%
SD06 57,502 117,156 32.92% 67.08%
SD07 236,992 169,822 58.26% 41.74%
SD11 77,482 46,126 62.68% 37.32%
SD13 38,020 158,384 19.36% 80.64%
SD15 114,322 192,386 37.27% 62.73%
SD17 118,535 122,335 49.21% 50.79%
SD18 15,323 11,618 56.88% 43.12%
HD126 39,112 33,088 54.17% 45.83%
HD127 54,309 34,783 60.96% 39.04%
HD128 48,197 21,688 68.97% 31.03%
HD129 48,127 34,606 58.17% 41.83%
HD130 70,364 31,748 68.91% 31.09%
HD131 10,092 44,290 18.56% 81.44%
HD132 50,934 47,797 51.59% 48.41%
HD133 50,892 35,660 58.80% 41.20%
HD134 49,172 56,015 46.75% 53.25%
HD135 36,694 36,599 50.07% 49.93%
HD137 10,422 20,732 33.45% 66.55%
HD138 31,922 30,597 51.06% 48.94%
HD139 15,711 44,501 26.09% 73.91%
HD140 9,326 21,677 30.08% 69.92%
HD141 7,106 35,937 16.51% 83.49%
HD142 13,933 41,496 25.14% 74.86%
HD143 11,999 24,126 33.21% 66.79%
HD144 13,786 16,469 45.57% 54.43%
HD145 14,992 26,765 35.90% 64.10%
HD146 11,408 43,008 20.96% 79.04%
HD147 15,323 52,737 22.51% 77.49%
HD148 22,392 36,300 38.15% 61.85%
HD149 21,640 30,536 41.47% 58.53%
HD150 56,160 39,038 58.99% 41.01%
CC1 93,365 277,707 25.16% 74.84%
CC2 150,891 143,324 51.29% 48.71%
CC3 228,295 207,558 52.38% 47.62%
CC4 241,461 211,606 53.29% 46.71%
JP1 93,441 162,045 36.57% 63.43%
JP2 34,172 48,572 41.30% 58.70%
JP3 51,782 67,626 43.37% 56.63%
JP4 235,236 182,956 56.25% 43.75%
JP5 204,805 212,367 49.09% 50.91%
JP6 8,152 26,921 23.24% 76.76%
JP7 18,654 99,583 15.78% 84.22%
JP8 67,769 40,125 62.81% 37.19%
Dist Max R Min D Max R% Min D%
======================================
CD02 185,931 148,006 55.68% 44.32%
CD07 159,695 144,247 52.54% 47.46%
CD08 26,439 14,393 64.75% 35.25%
CD09 40,013 116,625 25.54% 74.46%
CD10 105,177 57,133 64.80% 35.20%
CD18 63,096 174,763 26.53% 73.47%
CD22 22,436 19,262 53.81% 46.19%
CD29 55,680 94,745 37.02% 62.98%
CD36 84,840 45,634 65.02% 34.98%
SBOE4 117,378 322,667 26.67% 73.33%
SBOE6 401,507 336,009 54.44% 45.56%
SBOE8 224,690 156,133 59.00% 41.00%
SD04 56,905 21,704 72.39% 27.61%
SD06 64,474 110,326 36.88% 63.12%
SD07 242,602 164,480 59.60% 40.40%
SD11 79,333 44,482 64.07% 35.93%
SD13 40,293 155,638 20.56% 79.44%
SD15 118,813 187,188 38.83% 61.17%
SD17 124,541 119,169 51.10% 48.90%
SD18 15,619 11,279 58.07% 41.93%
HD126 40,053 31,945 55.63% 44.37%
HD127 55,452 33,703 62.20% 37.80%
HD128 49,089 20,798 70.24% 29.76%
HD129 49,387 33,547 59.55% 40.45%
HD130 71,729 30,669 70.05% 29.95%
HD131 11,027 43,306 20.30% 79.70%
HD132 52,228 46,423 52.94% 47.06%
HD133 53,008 34,318 60.70% 39.30%
HD134 53,200 53,340 49.93% 50.07%
HD135 37,600 35,481 51.45% 48.55%
HD137 10,831 20,255 34.84% 65.16%
HD138 32,956 29,493 52.77% 47.23%
HD139 16,700 43,426 27.78% 72.22%
HD140 10,796 20,276 34.75% 65.25%
HD141 7,844 35,148 18.25% 81.75%
HD142 15,015 40,325 27.13% 72.87%
HD143 13,599 22,554 37.62% 62.38%
HD144 14,965 15,326 49.40% 50.60%
HD145 16,455 25,318 39.39% 60.61%
HD146 11,924 42,368 21.96% 78.04%
HD147 16,147 51,800 23.76% 76.24%
HD148 23,754 35,054 40.39% 59.61%
HD149 22,315 29,713 42.89% 57.11%
HD150 57,274 37,933 60.16% 39.84%
CC1 98,310 271,971 26.55% 73.45%
CC2 158,199 135,874 53.80% 46.20%
CC3 236,301 201,920 53.92% 46.08%
CC4 248,120 205,046 54.75% 45.25%
JP1 99,574 157,709 38.70% 61.30%
JP2 36,841 45,917 44.52% 55.48%
JP3 54,016 65,253 45.29% 54.71%
JP4 240,145 177,376 57.52% 42.48%
JP5 211,698 206,389 50.63% 49.37%
JP6 9,694 25,425 27.60% 72.40%
JP7 19,825 98,162 16.80% 83.20%
JP8 69,422 38,580 64.28% 35.72%
Dist Min R Max D Min R% Max D%
======================================
CD02 175,786 157,942 52.67% 47.33%
CD07 145,575 154,644 48.49% 51.51%
CD08 25,520 15,264 62.57% 37.43%
CD09 36,275 121,193 23.04% 76.96%
CD10 101,112 61,042 62.36% 37.64%
CD18 56,673 182,314 23.71% 76.29%
CD22 21,218 20,673 50.65% 49.35%
CD29 45,744 105,745 30.20% 69.80%
CD36 81,336 49,507 62.16% 37.84%
SBOE4 100,933 342,178 22.78% 77.22%
SBOE6 373,961 359,113 51.01% 48.99%
SBOE8 215,025 167,034 56.28% 43.72%
SD04 55,047 23,216 70.34% 29.66%
SD06 53,562 122,474 30.43% 69.57%
SD07 231,452 175,578 56.86% 43.14%
SD11 75,844 48,065 61.21% 38.79%
SD13 36,086 160,806 18.33% 81.67%
SD15 109,597 198,247 35.60% 64.40%
SD17 112,679 127,956 46.83% 53.17%
SD18 15,000 11,985 55.59% 44.41%
HD126 38,215 34,107 52.84% 47.16%
HD127 53,344 35,933 59.75% 40.25%
HD128 47,390 22,477 67.83% 32.17%
HD129 46,964 36,012 56.60% 43.40%
HD130 69,298 32,900 67.81% 32.19%
HD131 9,584 44,980 17.56% 82.44%
HD132 49,625 49,260 50.18% 49.82%
HD133 48,359 37,729 56.17% 43.83%
HD134 45,698 59,519 43.43% 56.57%
HD135 35,662 37,653 48.64% 51.36%
HD137 9,997 21,240 32.00% 68.00%
HD138 30,912 31,792 49.30% 50.70%
HD139 14,891 45,442 24.68% 75.32%
HD140 8,496 22,687 27.25% 72.75%
HD141 6,751 36,444 15.63% 84.37%
HD142 13,366 42,296 24.01% 75.99%
HD143 11,100 25,218 30.56% 69.44%
HD144 13,029 17,345 42.90% 57.10%
HD145 14,011 28,167 33.22% 66.78%
HD146 10,824 43,630 19.88% 80.12%
HD147 14,469 53,867 21.17% 78.83%
HD148 21,053 38,031 35.63% 64.37%
HD149 20,955 31,398 40.03% 59.97%
HD150 55,070 40,198 57.81% 42.19%
CC1 88,636 283,723 23.80% 76.20%
CC2 146,468 149,847 49.43% 50.57%
CC3 220,181 215,729 50.51% 49.49%
CC4 234,765 219,028 51.73% 48.27%
JP1 87,533 168,977 34.12% 65.88%
JP2 32,564 50,632 39.14% 60.86%
JP3 50,336 69,338 42.06% 57.94%
JP4 230,567 188,394 55.03% 44.97%
JP5 197,305 219,993 47.28% 52.72%
JP6 7,269 28,198 20.50% 79.50%
JP7 17,578 100,870 14.84% 85.16%
JP8 66,324 41,925 61.27% 38.73%
There were 15 contested District or County court races, with another 12 that had only a Democrat running. All of the numbers are from the contested races. The first table is just the average vote total for each candidate in that district; I then computed the percentage from those average values. For the second and third tables, I used the Excel MAX and MIN functions to get the highest and lowest vote totals for each party in each district. It should be noted that the max Republican and min Democratic totals in a given district (and vice versa) may not belong to the candidates from the same race, as the total number of votes in each race varies. Consider these to be a bit more of a theoretical construct, to see what the absolute best and worst case scenario for each party was this year.
One could argue that Democrats did better than expected this year, given the partisan levels they faced. Both Lizzie Fletcher and Jon Rosenthal won re-election, in CD07 and HD135, despite running in districts that were tilted slightly against them. The one Republican that won in a district that tilted Democratic was Precinct 5 Constable Ted Heap, who won as his JP colleague Russ Ridgway fell; as previously noted, Dan Crenshaw clearly outperformed the baseline in CD02. The tilt in Commissioners Court Precinct 3 was too much for Michael Moore to overcome, though perhaps redistricting and four more years of demographic change will move things in the Democratic direction for 2024. As for Precinct 2, I believe Adrian Garcia would have been re-elected if he had been on the ballot despite the Republican tilt in that precinct, mostly because the Latino Democratic candidates generally carried the precinct. He will also get a hand from redistricting when that happens. I believe being the incumbent would have helped him regardless, as Jack Morman ran ahead of the pack in 2018, just not by enough to hang on.
The “Republican max” (table 2) and “Democratic max” (table 3) values give you a picture of the range of possibility in each district. At their high end for Republicans, CD02 and SBOE6 don’t look particularly competitive, while CD07 and HD135 look like they really got away, while HD144 looks like a missed opportunity, and JP5 could have maybe been held in both races. HD134 remained stubbornly Democratic, however. On the flip side, you can see that at least one Democratic judicial candidate took a majority in CD07, HD135, HD138, and CC2, while CC3 and CC4 both look enticingly close, and neither HDs 134 nor 144 look competitive at all. If nothing else, this is a reminder that even in these judicial races, there can be a lot of variance.
On the subject of undervoting, as noted in the Appellate Court posts, the dropoff rate in those races was about 4.7% – there wasn’t much change from the first race to the fourth. For the contested local judicial races, the undervote rate ranged from 5.06% in the first race to 6.54%, in the seventh (contested) race from the end. There was a downward trend as you got farther down the ballot, but it wasn’t absolute – as noted, there were six races after the most-undervoted race, all with higher vote totals. The difference between the highest turnout race to the lowest was about 24K votes, from 1.568 million to 1.544 million. It’s not nothing, but in the grand scheme of things it’s pretty minimal.
The twelve unopposed Democrats in judicial races clearly show how unopposed candidates always do better than candidates that have opponents. Every unopposed judicial candidate collected over one million votes. Kristen Hawkins, the first unopposed judicial candidate, and thus most likely the first unopposed candidate on everyone’s ballot, led the way with 1.068 million votes, about 200K more votes than Michael Gomez, who was the leading votegetter in a contested race. Every unopposed Democratic candidate got a vote from at least 61.25% of all voters, with Hawkins getting a vote from 64.44% of all. I have always assumed that some number of people feel like they need to vote in each race, even the ones with only one candidate.
I’m going to analyze the vote in the non-Houston cities next. As always, please let me know what you think.
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