Introduction
Congressional districts
State Rep districts
Commissioners Court/JP precincts
Comparing 2012 and 2016
Statewide judicial
Other jurisdictions
Appellate courts, Part 1
Appellate courts, Part 2
Judicial averages
Other cities
District Attorney
County Attorney
Sheriff
Tax Assessor
County Clerk
HCDE
Fort Bend, part 1
Fort Bend, part 2
We wrap up our look at Fort Bend County with a look at the three executive offices that were on the ballot – County Attorney, Sheriff, and Tax Assessor.
Dist Rogers Lawson Rogers% Lawson%
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CD09 15,023 50,782 22.83% 77.17%
CD22 145,087 127,054 53.31% 46.69%
HD26 43,626 39,504 52.48% 47.52%
HD27 24,389 56,616 30.11% 69.89%
HD28 66,099 54,828 54.66% 45.34%
HD85 26,625 26,552 50.07% 49.93%
CC1 37,971 37,058 50.61% 49.39%
CC2 17,680 50,002 26.12% 73.88%
CC3 62,634 44,214 58.62% 41.38%
CC4 41,822 46,562 47.32% 52.68%
Dist Nehls Fagan Nehls% Fagan%
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CD09 14,833 51,165 22.47% 77.53%
CD22 146,932 128,505 53.35% 46.65%
HD26 44,560 39,723 52.87% 47.13%
HD27 24,035 57,421 29.51% 70.49%
HD28 66,891 55,267 54.76% 45.24%
HD85 26,899 26,911 49.99% 50.01%
CC1 38,247 37,720 50.35% 49.65%
CC2 17,442 50,439 25.69% 74.31%
CC3 63,111 44,910 58.42% 41.58%
CC4 42,964 46,599 47.97% 52.03%
Dist Pressler Turner Press% Turner%
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CD09 15,165 50,611 23.06% 76.94%
CD22 147,338 124,999 54.10% 45.90%
HD26 44,460 38,767 53.42% 46.58%
HD27 24,799 56,167 30.63% 69.37%
HD28 66,903 54,081 55.30% 44.70%
HD85 26,904 26,301 50.57% 49.43%
CC1 38,516 36,606 51.27% 48.73%
CC2 17,829 49,779 26.37% 73.63%
CC3 63,433 43,533 59.30% 40.70%
CC4 42,722 45,692 48.32% 51.68%
The most remarkable thing about these three races is the consistency. There’s less than a point of variance in the three races, in whichever district you look. That was not the case in Harris County, where Sheriff Ed Gonzalez ran well ahead of the pack, and where we often see a fairly wide range of results at the countywide level. Bridgette Smith-Lawson and Eric Fagan had identical percentages overall – there were about 3500 more votes cast in the Sheriff’s race, but the marginal voters broke for each candidate exactly as the overlapping voters had – and they both finished about 0.7 points ahead of Carmen Turner. I’ve often said that blowout races are boring to analyze because they don’t offer much insight into anything, but sometimes the same is true for close races. A few more people voted for James Pressler than for Steve Rogers, but not in a way that demonstrated any strengths or weaknesses on the part of anyone involved. Just one of those things, and it ultimately meant nothing as far as the outcome was concerned.
I’ve mentioned Commissioners Court Precinct 1 a few times, and here I should note that incumbent Commissioner Vincent Morales won with 52.30% of the vote, ahead of the other Republicans here indeed every other Republican in Fort Bend. Judicial candidate Maggie Jaramillo was next best in that district, with 52.17% of the vote. Another piece of evidence for the relative advantage that Latino Republicans had, in this election at least, and perhaps a cautionary tale for the 2024 campaign by Democrats to unseat Morales and cement a 4-1 membership on the Court. Morales’ incumbency and his appeal to independent/soft Dem Latino voters will make it that much harder to oust him. If the plan is to endanger him via the redistricting process, my advice is to add in a bit of buffer, because he will likely overperform the baseline.
That’s it for Fort Bend. I’ll try to work on Brazoria County next. Let me know what you think.