I have three things to say about this.
Rep. Lizzie Fletcher
Fresh off a 2020 election cycle in which they held the line against an ambitious Democratic campaign to capture U.S. House seats in Texas, national Republicans are signaling they’ll go on the offensive here in 2022, with an emphasis on South Texas.
The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm of House Republicans, announced Wednesday that it’s targeting five Texas Democrats in the U.S. House as they seek to regain their majority in 2022. The list of targets is three more than the GOP seriously targeted last year and includes three Democrats in South Texas where the party underperformed in November.
The first round of 2022 pickup opportunities includes the seats held by Reps. Colin Allred of Dallas, Henry Cuellar of Laredo, Lizzie Fletcher of Houston, Vicente Gonzalez of McAllen and Filemon Vela of Brownsville. There are 47 seats total on the initial national target list.
Allred and Fletcher flipped their seats in 2018 and fended off major Republican challenges last election cycle when they were also NRCC targets. Cuellar, Gonzalez and Vela, however, are new to the national GOP radar after President Joe Biden carried their traditionally blue districts by surprisingly small margins, part of trend of Democratic underperformance across South Texas last year that alarmed the party.
Republicans are especially emboldened after the NRCC’s Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, targeted 10 GOP-held seats in Texas last election cycle and won none.
[…]
The DCCC has not yet named its 2022 targets in Texas, though it has already included freshman U.S. Rep. Beth Van Duyne, R-Irving, in an early attack ad campaign. Van Duyne won her seat in November by under 2 points.
1. The Democrats went big in 2020 following the very successful 2018 election, in which they came closer than expected in several districts that had seemed way out of reach before, including a couple where they had run undistinguished and underfunded candidates (basically, CD24). The Republicans are now trying to do the same. It’s what I’d do in their position, but as we can attest, past performance does not guarantee future results.
2. Of course, the Republicans can help put a thumb on the scale in the redistricting process. Some early maps have suggested that at least one of those South Texas seats could be made a lot redder. Things can and almost certainly will change between now and when the final maps are signed into law, not to mention the first attempts to litigate them. The NRCC isn’t committing to anything now, they’re just trying to raise a few bucks. There’s nothing like a thirsty target list to get donor hearts beating.
3. I’ve said it before but it bears repeating: The national atmosphere will have a big effect on who becomes a legitimate target and who is a mirage. In our sample of two Trump-era elections, Democrats did much better when Trump himself was not on the ballot, which will be the case in 2022. That’s also the first Biden midterm, which usually bodes well for the opposition party. On the other hand, if COVID has largely been beaten back and the economy is roaring again, that’s great for the Dems. And on the other other hand, the Republicans can claim that success for themselves here in Texas, as its ruling party. In other words, nobody knows nothin’ yet.
The Valley and Latino votes for Trump was a one-time thing, don’t expect it will happen again. If Biden and the Democrats make sure to take credit for the disaster relief help they are giving people I expect that some state-wide positions will turn blue.
If Wasserman’s map (see link below) is correct, and I think it is, then Gonzalez is in trouble, and Fletcher may get a primary challenge. The rest should be fine though. I also think Democrats would have opportunities in DFW CDs 3, 6, and 24 down the road, but probably not in 2022, which is likely to be a Republican year. Also, SCOTUS may weigh in on CDs 15 and 23.
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1339243243331006464
Manny,
What are you saying? Your people’s votes can be bought for $ 1,400 a piece? Pretty sad that you’re admitting it like this. Hell, maybe just load up the pickup and drive down to the Valley with frozen turkeys and see if their votes can be bought for the price of a bird?
Trump offered people a playing field where everyone willing to work could advance. He brought up wages for low skilled folks, and some blue collar folks by tightening up on letting foreigners into the country, reducing supply for those jobs, while simultaneously increasing demand by giving employers a chance to keep more of the money they earned. The magic wand was working great until the China virus was unleashed on us.
Your plan is to buy off your own people with a government check. And how many people in the Valley were employed building the wall, Manny? All those folks are now out of work and dependent on Uncle Sugar for a handout now. How many more will be out of work now that federal offshore drilling is no more? But hey, it’s OK, y’all, Uncle Joe’s gonna send you a check!
Trump-jobs, self sufficiency
Biden-no jobs, no self sufficiency….but maybe they’ll get gub’mint checks
Sad, Manny…..sad. You should demand more for your people. How sad is it that the racist Trump worked harder for your people than your own totally not a racist even though Kamala called him one on the debate stage, candidate is?
People in the Valley, many of whom have been here for generations, got a taste of having their borders protected, a taste of having fewer illegals trespassing, damaging and stealing their stuff, cutting their fences, etc. Now that they know what that’s like, I don’t think they’re going to want to return to the bad old days of open borders. We’ll see, I guess.
Bill, why is everything racist with you? Why insult “My” people. I represent one person, and your conclusion is as wrong as your beating your mother and wife.
By the way, about 70% of Republicans believe that they should receive disaster relief.
If you, Bill, paid income tax, why would you not want some of the money you had paid in income tax? But then you relied on your mother’s social security to maintain you, so you have no skin in the game.
You are good for one thing because you actually are part of how the Republicans plan to attack Democrats.
What is sad is that your people are so stupid and lazy that they blame others for their condition in life. My wife did not work because she did not have to, I supported my family. In fact, all five of us, me and my brothers, did not need to have our wives work, although one of the wives did choose to work.
I am referencing the low intelligence trash that you, Bill, are a part of by your people.
Your mother was probably glad to leave such a pathetic son like you, Bill. Did you know who your father was, Bill?
Stop with the racism and insults; as to buying votes, how many millions of people got letters from Trump taking credit for sending them money? Your people Bill.
Bill, both my parents are in a mausoleum. Could you even afford to have her buried, or was she buried by the county? My father fought for this country for four years in the Pacific. My mother did not work; my father supported the family. We come from hard-working Americans. When things go wrong, we pick ourselves up and keep going, unlike the low lives like you and your kind. My grandfather had two sons that were mentally challenged. He refused to take any money from the government; he told people they were his sons. They were his responsibility.
Bill, you are a sorry excuse for a person, and the sooner you and your kind pass from this world, the sooner the world will be a better place.
Bill, grow some courage and state what your real name is, like many others, like to insult but refuse to reveal who you are, ballless wonders. I know plenty of women with more courage than you and your kind.
Manny,
Read it again. I didn’t insult your people at all. You did, when you suggested that all those Trump voters in the Valley could be bought off with a check from Uncle Joe. You said their loyalty could be bought with a $ 1,400 check. I didn’t say that…..YOU said that. You insulted them, not me.
I’m also happy that you’re finally getting upset that every discussion here seems to devolve into race. Maybe use this as a ‘teachable moment,’ and realize that those folks in the Valley had non racist reasons to vote for Trump.
Biden himself told you that Hispanics are incredibly diverse, unlike blacks. And diversity of thought means you can’t pigeon hole Hispanic Trump supporters as White racists.
Bill, you are a racist!
You are a liar!
Where did I say loyalty? Below is my entire statement. I referenced Latinos because of the valley districts that Kuffner referenced.
“The Valley and Latino votes for Trump was a one-time thing, don’t expect it will happen again. If Biden and the Democrats make sure to take credit for the disaster relief help they are giving people, I expect that some state-wide positions will turn blue.”
Let me repeat when racists and fascists like you disappear from the face of the earth; The world will be a better place.
Please stop with the insults, unless you like receiving them. That means all the references to “My” people and whatever lies you want to post about them.
Bill, I already have a celebration planned when that dirtbag, Rush, passes away on his way to hell.
When I asked my dad if he agreed that the Atomic bomb should have been dropped on the Japanese, he quickly replied yes. He was in Okinawa, waiting to invade Japan. He stated that too many of them would have died taking Japan. You are like the Japanese were at that time, an enemy of this country and democracy. By the way, his younger brother was by his side they spent their entire time together in the Pacific. Of course, my uncle on my mother’s side was in the European theater fighting the Naziis that believed as you do.
Manny,
“The Valley and Latino votes for Trump was a one-time thing….”
OK, why did Valley Latinos/Chicanos/’Spanish surname folks’ as you refer to them vote for Trump? Did they have a momentary bout of racism? What was the reason they voted Trump?
“….don’t expect it will happen again.”
OK, why won’t they vote for Trump or someone with similar policies again? Did their racism stop suddenly? What’s the reason WHY they won’t vote for similar policies, or for Trump himself, again?
” If Biden and the Democrats make sure to take credit for the disaster relief help they are giving people, I expect that some state-wide positions will turn blue.”
How are we supposed to read that, Manny? It’s a classic if-then scenario. If this happens, then this other thing will happen.
If Dems take credit for giving out $ 1,400 worth of Biden bucks, then some state-wide positions will turn blue. If dey gets paid dey money, dey gonna vote the right way. How else are we to interpret that, Manny, other than as a payoff?
Here’s another example of a payoff:
“If the prosecutor (who is investigating Burisma the company paying my son off even though he’s not qualified to provide anything of value to Burisma) isn’t fired, you’re not getting the money (the billion dollars of US taxpayer money).”
If-then
Explain how I’ve interpreted your post wrong, please.
Bill why do you think the earth is flat, explain in detail.
Explain why you believe the sun revolves around the earth?
Explain why you think Democrats are Satanic believers?
Bill one of your kind left today, America is a better place without him.