Consider this to be written in chalk on the pavement, pending the new Congressional maps.
Rep. Beth Van Duyne
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced Tuesday that it will target two Republican-held districts in Texas — the ones currently held by Reps. Tony Gonzales of San Antonio and Beth Van Duyne of Irving. They were one of 22 districts nationwide that the committee included on its 2022 target list, which it emphasized as preliminary due to redistricting.
Last election cycle, the DCCC sought to make Texas the centerpiece of its strategy to grow its House majority — and came up woefully short. They initially targeted six seats here and later expanded the list to 10 — and picked up none of them.
Van Duyne’s and Gonzales’ races ended up being the closest. Van Duyne won by 1 percentage point to replace retiring Rep. Kenny Marchant, R-Coppell, while Gonzales notched a 4-point margin to succeed Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, who was also retiring.
The shape of those races remains very much in question more than a year and a half out from Election Day, most notably because Texas lawmakers are expected to redraw congressional district lines in a special session of the state Legislature later this year. Texas is on track to gain multiple congressional seats due to population growth. Republicans control the redistricting process and may be be able to make Gonzales’ and Van Duyne’s seats more secure.
On paper, Van Duyne’s 24th District looks to be the most competitive in 2022. It was the only GOP-held district in Texas that Democratic President Joe Biden won — and he carried it by a healthy margin of 5 points. The DCCC has already run TV ads against Van Duyne this year.
Biden, meanwhile, lost Gonzales’ 23rd District by 2 points. The 23rd District is a perennial swing seat that stretches from San Antonio to near El Paso and includes a large portion of the Texas-Mexico border.
As noted, the Republicans have their target list as well, which will also be affected by whatever the final maps look like as well as any retirements. CD24 is an obvious target, but if the map were to remain exactly as it is now I’d have several CDs higher on my list than CD23 at this point based on 2020 results and demographic direction. I’d make CDs 03, 21, 22, and 31 my top targets, with CDs 02, 06 (modulo the special election), and 10 a rung below. I’d put CD23 in with that second group, but with less conviction because I don’t like the trend lines. Again, this is all playing with Monopoly money until we get new maps.
Just to state my priors up front: I believe there will be electoral opportunities in Texas for Congressional candidates, though they will almost certainly evolve over the course of the decade. I believe that if the economy and President Biden’s approval ratings are solid, the 2022 midterms could be decent to good, and that we are in a different moment than we were in back in 2009-10. I also know fully well that the 2022 election is a long way off and there are many things that can affect the national atmosphere, many of them not great for the incumbent party. I was full of dumb optimism at this time in 2009, that’s for sure. I also had extremely modest expectations for 2018 at this point in that election cycle, too. Nobody knows nothing right now, is what I’m saying.
“Biden, meanwhile, lost Gonzales’ 23rd District by 2 points. The 23rd District is a perennial swing seat that stretches from San Antonio to near El Paso and includes a large portion of the Texas-Mexico border.”
If I were planning the spending of DNC funds, I think I would consider this district lost, and spend the money somewhere else. This district is getting to experience the full force of Biden’s open border policy. The longer it goes on, the worse it will be for those folks, as their crime spikes, their hospitals, jails, and schools clog up with newly minted illegal aliens, etc.
The school districts, particularly, are going to be hit with an influx of new students, with no additional tax base to pay for them. Those are going to be the most expensive students, needing remedial ESL programs. All this will put a strain on, and diminish the educations of the US citizen kids, and at some point, the US citizen parents will figure out the cause and effect of their kids’ educations deteriorating.
My prediction: This district will be more R than it was last go round.
If I was spending, I’d choose districts where the constituents aren’t actually having to come face to face with the results of Biden policies…..places where people can virtue signal without actually experiencing negative, real world consequences.
Don’t agree that Biden’s policies are unpopular. His policies are broadly popular across the spectrum, including GOP voters. His job approval rating is higher than the former guy’s ever was.
The border is an exception, but not because Biden has an open border policy—he doesn’t. The border is a problem for reasons that preceded Biden’s election and our policies are now in flux. Maybe they are intractable problems or maybe there are policy solutions. Let’s see what the border is like after Biden has been in office more more than 2 1/2 months. I’m looking forward to good policies and progress there.
There is likely to be 3 new seats. If GOP mapmakers are smart they’ll create a new Austin based Dem vote sink which would preserve their surrounding members for some time to come. Creating 7 and 32 as dem vote sinks would give them more flexibility in preserving their incumbents but it would probably require ceding an additional dem vote sink in DFW to keep 3,6, 24 and others tangental safe for most of the next decade. All total this would require Republicans to cede 2/3 of the new seats to dems but again would probably preserve their lopsided Congressional margins past Texas going blue statewide. 23 would be hard to alter to make significantly more R without VRA violations, it will continue being swing. If I had to guess in realty what Rs actually do, it would be to try to accomplish the same goal but only ceding 1/3 of the new seats to dems while maybe trying to create a VRA compliant valley R seat. I do however think Trumps high water mark among Texas hispanic republicans will prove to be more mirage than a sign of trends to come, but we’ll only know that with time.
As Mr. Kuffner noted recently, two major late season hurricanes devastated Honduras last year, and migrants from that region are part of the problem. It is well documented that global warming causes more intense hurricanes due to warmer ocean water, and oil and gas from Texas have contributed a lot of carbon to our atmosphere, exacerbating warming. So now we get the refugees from those climate disasters, the problem coming home to roost.
Jeff,
“Let’s see what the border is like after Biden has been in office more more than 2 1/2 months. I’m looking forward to good policies and progress there.”
I’m curious what you think would be good policies and progress, with respect to the border. You obviously didn’t care for Trump’s blunt, but effective policy of just not letting illegals in and deporting all the illegals we catch, combined with building the wall to make it harder for illegals to actually get into the US. I guess you didn’t like Trump getting AMLO to put Mexican troops at the Suchiate River to stop Central American migrant ‘caravans’ from physically entering Mexico. OK, fair enough.
Based on your response, you’re not entirely satisfied with Biden’s current policy, either….so what would you like to see? What do you see as a good policy? What does progress look like to you?
Jen,
” So now we get the refugees from those climate disasters, the problem coming home to roost.”
I’m glad to see you admitting that hordes of uneducated, unskilled, yet very fertile illegals pouring into the country is a problem, not a strength. That’s progress, and it’s certainly not the ‘diversity is our strength’ party line we get from Wolf and others.
And here’s a thought….since illegal aliens are our karmic punishment for the sin of using oil and gas, why can’t we just charter cargo ships to send the folks we catch at the border to countries that pollute much worse than we do? I’d chip in to send one of them to China, or India, if it would help. Considering our trade imbalance with China, I’m sure there’s plenty of empty space on ships sailing back to China, after offloading their cargoes here.
About a million immigrant persons are granted residency in the US every year, so 20,000 people is about 2 percent of that number. A problem, because the border facilities are not equipped to handle that number, but 2 percent is not that big a deal, unless you are a virulent racist and the people are native to the Americas, rather than white.
Jen,
Where’s that 20,000 figure coming from?
https://www.cnsnews.com/article/washington/melanie-arter/rep-mcclintock-cbp-had-170000-encounters-illegal-immigrants-march
(CNSNews.com) – The Border Patrol had 170,000 encounters with illegal immigrants last month, which amounts to the entire population of Salem, Ore., Rep. Tom McClintock (R-Calif.) said Wednesday.
Speaking to reporters during a congressional visit to the border in Mission, Texas, McClintock said, “I must tell you, in all of my years in the Congress, this is the most disturbing field tour that I’ve ever taken.”
170,000 is just the figure for last month. Annualize that over 12 months, Jen, and you’re looking at close to TWO MILLION illegal aliens who are not vetted and have received no permission to come here, joining our society and shaping it into what they left back home.
So you say 2% undesirable folks coming in with a million we want works out OK. Fine. How’s the math when it’s 200% undesirables coming in with those million legal immigrants we want? For every person we want to come in, 2 we don’t want, and didn’t ask for are also coming. Big deal, or nah?
Edit: This figure doesn’t include all the illegals that got away, which must be a significant amount, as our BP has to pull resources from actually repelling people and drugs from the border and divert them into bean counter processors who catch and release. In fact, that’s wrong. The BP’s mission, under Biden, isn’t to repel anyone, it’s simply to facilitate entry into the US. The cartels get illegals across the border, then the BP takes the hand off and puts cash in their pockets and puts them on buses and airplanes, into the interior of the US.
Even if that number was true, most of those persons would have been expelled, and the numbers right now are high due to people forced to wait in Mexico and cool weather, so your estimates are not at all correct.
Plus I know you Bill, a one note racist, neo-nazi samba, it is only a problem ’cause they aint White.
If you are concerned about high numbers of minority kids, look to the Catholic Church and other religious conservatives, who are blocking sex education and birth control everywhere.
IS THE BOAT FULL? – POP STATS IN PERSPECTIVE
Texas: 111 people per square mile
France: 319
PRC: 378, Taiwan: 1,689
Germany: 603
Switzerland: 539
UK: 725
Singapore: 20,446
Secondary Data Source: Wikipedia, ‘List of countries and dependencies by population density.’ Data for Texas, see source below.
State Pop. per sq. mi. (2019)
California 253.5
Texas 111.0
Florida 400.3
New York 412.8
Pennsylvania 286.1
Illinois 228.3
Ohio 286.1
Georgia 184.0
North Carolina 215.7
Michigan 176.4
Data Source: US Census Bureau
Regarding “The Boat is Full” reference, see review at
https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1217&context=sahs_review
Bill, you think I will forget how you referred to my adopted son?
“Manny,
While my parents were raising me, you were raising a retard son whose only use in life, besides enabling you to collect an extra SSI check, seems to be for you to have an extra ballot to fill out, come voting time. You get yet another government check each month for caring for him now, don’t you? You’re a leach on society, Manny. ”
http://www.offthekuff.com/wp/?p=99979#comments
Bil, you claimed your mother thought the same you did, so there is no doubt she is in hell. I wonder if maybe if all those men that came through that revolving door where you lived sexually and or mentally abused you? Is that the reason for your perversion and hate? Were many of them minorities? Is that why you hate minorities so much?
My son started collecting SSDI when I started receiving social security. He is entitled to that the same way a wife or widow would be retired. I paid with that when I was working. It is like insurance.
The only leach is you, Bill. Did you do something to your mom to inherit her house, Bill?
Bill do you know that there is a person that has a child with Down Syndrome that publishes on Big Jolly. I will make sure that I tell him what you think of his son.
Manny,
Spirited debate is great. Apologetics is something everyone here, on all sides, benefits from. Occasionally, but rarely, minds are actually changed, but even when they aren’t, learning how to defend your position, having your argument’s weaknesses pointed out, seeing counter arguments being made….all that makes people better debaters.
Personal attacks are fun if they are well done and creative (yours are base level ad hominem, zero creativity, by the way). I have asked you repeatedly to honor the usual and customary more of, “family is off limits,” something I always observed with you until recently. You have repeatedly violated that unwritten rule with vigor and vituperative vitriol. In a moment of weakness, I responded to you in kind. You think I was rough with you? I can get a LOT nastier, but I don’t want to spam up Kuff’s site with lowbrow nastiness. He has a a great playground, good subject matter, and reasonably well thought out opinions, even when I disagree with them.
Now, do you have any thoughts on the two House races the DCCC is planning to contest? That’s the subject of the thread, Manny.
You are a pathetic excuse for a human, Bill.
The fact that your parents raised a Nazi son, is not belittling the family it is belittling Bill Daniels.
Get Nasty Bill, what can you say that you haven’t said already.
So you think your racist, hateful words are about the two districts?
“I’m curious what you think would be good policies and progress, with respect to the border. You obviously didn’t care for Trump’s blunt, but effective policy of just not letting illegals in and deporting all the illegals we catch, combined with building the wall to make it harder for illegals to actually get into the US. I guess you didn’t like Trump getting AMLO to put Mexican troops at the Suchiate River to stop Central American migrant ‘caravans’ from physically entering Mexico. OK, fair enough.”
“So you say 2% undesirable folks coming in with a million we want works out OK. Fine. How’s the math when it’s 200% undesirables coming in with those million legal immigrants we want? For every person we want to come in, 2 we don’t want, and didn’t ask for are also coming. Big deal, or nah?”
“I’m glad to see you admitting that hordes of uneducated, unskilled, yet very fertile illegals pouring into the country is a problem, not a strength. That’s progress, and it’s certainly not the ‘diversity is our strength’ party line we get from Wolf and others.
And here’s a thought….since illegal aliens are our karmic punishment for the sin of using oil and gas, why can’t we just charter cargo ships to send the folks we catch at the border to countries that pollute much worse than we do? I’d chip in to send one of them to China, or India, if it would help. Considering our trade imbalance with China, I’m sure there’s plenty of empty space on ships sailing back to China, after offloading their cargoes here.”
Your nothing but a racist, hateful piece of manure, Bill.
But you pretend you are talking about the two house races.
Bill, when and if you can ever speak like a none hateful human, maybe then people may think differently about you.
Try it for a week, could you manage that?
Bill, I still think my autistic son may have more money in the bank than you do.
Manny, let me condense my thoughts on the 23rd Congressional race for you since you obviously got bogged down somewhere:
The large border district is experiencing the fallout from Biden’s border policy changes first hand. I opined that it would make the district more likely to vote R.
Now, to continue with the Cliff’s note version of the thread, Jeff agreed there was an issue on the border, but figured that Biden would have it worked out by the time the ’22 election rolled around, and most other Biden policies would be welcomed in that district, so overall a possible Dem. win.
Jen posited that there really wasn’t that much illegal immigration going on anyway, so that wouldn’t be a factor for that district’s voters.
Wolf chimed in tangentially, by noting that Texas has the physical room to hold more, presumably, sin papeles folks, presumably in the district in question.
And then there was your response…….a pure ad hominem attack rant having absolutely ZERO to do with either district in question.
So, once again…..do you have any thoughts about either of those districts, and the soundness of the DCCC spending a lot of money and effort trying to pick them off, vs. other districts?
Let me condense it for you, Bill, when you quit referring to people as;
“I’m glad to see you admitting that hordes of uneducated, unskilled, yet very fertile illegals pouring into the country is a problem,”
The people on the border don’t see the influx of people from the south as their biggest problem. I don’t know where you get that information. That part of South Texas has seen people flowing over the border since the 1800s.
The Democrats ran a very progressive woman in a very social conservative district. She did not relate to the people there. Those “Trump” voters were a one-time thing. If you think calling people that look like them names is going to make them love them you are dumber than I think. Why do you think Abbott and Costello (Patrick), now care how the people are being treated. The orange buffoon laid off attacking Latinos for six months before the election.
Bill, could you act human for a week? Or do you always have to be an animal?
Much of the border problem was created by Trump to appease his racist base.
These rapid expulsions created a situation where single adults—who didn’t have to worry about the health and safety of a child with them—could attempt to cross the border repeatedly. In December 2020 alone, the Border Patrol apprehended single adults over 62,000 times (many of them the same people). This was the highest level since 1999.
Trump encouraged people to keep trying until they succeeded. Obama would put them in jail after the first time or sent them far inland.
What is Biden doing;
While the number of unaccompanied children reached record highs last month, the number of families seeking asylum remains just below 2019 levels. However, unlike in spring 2019, when nearly all families were allowed into the United States to seek asylum, many families are now being turned away.
Even though unaccompanied children are no longer being expelled, the Biden administration has kept Title 42 in place for families. In March, 17,345 people who came to the border as part of a family were expelled, a full third of all families. The Biden administration has said that it would expel more families if it was able to, but Mexico has refused to take many families.
Biden is actually trying to fix the problem that Trump created.
First, let me compliment you on your argument, which was civil and fairly well thought out….a nice change of pace. Seriously. It’s a compliment. Just take it.
Now, on to the subject matter:
“The people on the border don’t see the influx of people from the south as their biggest problem. I don’t know where you get that information.”
https://thetexan.news/small-texas-city-flooded-with-immigrants-mayor-seeks-help-from-congress/
“Noting the increase in criminal activity affecting his community, McLaughlin said that Uvalde saw “five car chases in and around the city with two of those causing for our schools to be placed on lockdown.”
McLaughlin stated that one long-time Uvalde resident is so concerned with local safety that “his grandkids won’t even come over and swim at his house unless he sits out by [his] pool with his shotgun.” The local farmer is considering moving out of the area.
The mayor maintained that those causing trouble “are people who have issues getting in the United States.”
Citing health concerns and the lack of proper medical screenings, McLaughlin said, “We have had two cases of the mumps here put in quarantine and a third thought to have mumps [who was] put under quarantine.”
So, not business as usual as you intimate, Manny, at least, not in Uvalde. Wanna bet I can find similar articles from other towns close to the border?
And here, let me just refresh your memory:
“”When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best,” Trump said. “They’re not sending you…They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists, and some, I assume, are good people.”
Weird. Sounds EXACTLY like what the Mayor of Uvalde, Texas is reporting RIGHT NOW, thanks to Biden’s change in border policy, except that many of those criminals are probably not actually Mexican, they’re probably Central American. But hey, you know us racist Whites, y’all are all Mexican to us, right? (It’s a joke, don’t get bent out of shape here.)
Then there’s this:
” The Biden administration has said that it would expel more families if it was able to, but Mexico has refused to take many families.”
Weird. Just a few months ago, AMLO was super happy to take ALL of the illegals we caught back, even the non Mexican illegals, because Trump laid down the law….tough but fair negotiation. Biden strolls in and suddenly, “oh, gee, Mexico is refusing to…..” GMAB. Mexico is refusing because Biden is a weak, frail old man, and also because Biden WANTS those illegals here. He campaigned on it.
Finally, you take umbrage with my descriptor: “hordes of uneducated, unskilled, yet very fertile illegals.”
How is that not an accurate, though blunt assessment of the people that are coming through? They’re 3rd World poors with nothing. They aren’t CEO’s, architects, doctors, and engineers, Manny. I’m sorry the truth is offensive to you, but there it is. The CEO’s, architects, doctors, and engineers apply to come here legally, pay their money, pass the background checks, wait their turn, and come here legally. That leaves….well, I already covered it.
Bill, since you like to begin with insults, let me do likewise.
Bill, for a piece of manure that is masquerading as a human, your argument is full of holes.
If citing two sources makes something true, more than two sources on this blog have identified you as a racist and deplorable human being.
1) The source of your argument is all headlines without any words to back up the headline.
2) Uvalde is not a border town, but I don’t expect idiots like you to even look. It is over 200 miles from the border.
3) The Mayor of Uvalde is a Republican, so I don’t expect him to behave any differently than the other racists’ Republicans. It would not surprise that he is engaged in Republicans’ favorite pastime, telling lies. He gets to go on Fox News by acting the way he does.
4) How is my calling you and your kind racists, bigots, misogynists not accurate?
Finally, here is a fact that even a sorry excuse of a human should consider.
Fact: Biden is on track to accept the fewest refugees this year of any modern president, including Trump, according to a report released Friday from the International Rescue Committee, a nonprofit humanitarian aid group.
You are and always will be a piece of manure masquerading as a human being, Bill.
What do you know, Democrats know how to get things done. Unlike the racist orange buffoon that is all talk and no action. Breaking news;
The Biden administration has secured agreements for Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala to tighten their borders and stem the flow of migration, Special Assistant to the President for Immigration for the Domestic Policy Council Tyler Moran told MSNBC Monday.
“We’ve secured agreements for them to put more troops on their own border. Mexico, Honduras and Guatemala have all agreed to do this. That not only is going to prevent the traffickers, and the smugglers, and cartels that take advantage of the kids on their way here, but also to protect those children,” Moran said.
I think Christopher is right. GOP more in a defensive posture this decade. Doggett, Allred, and Fletcher get more compact vote sinks. VanDuyne probably gets the park cities from 32 and more of north Tarrant, while shedding Carrollton, Addison, and most of Irving.
The three new districts will be exurban Houston, a South TX based district that leans R for someone like JP Lozano, and the third will be some sort of gerrymandered Richardson to Rockwall to Mineola district drawn with Senator Bryan Hughes in mind.
[sigh]
Manny, you’re really just too much. Attempting to be civil with you is useless. Oprah is right. Old racists like you just need to die, because there’s no changing for you, in fact, it’s pretty clear you’re in the beginning stages of Alzheimer’s, and one of the telltale signs, besides disordered thinking and confusion, is frequent fits of anger, of lashing out. That’s you. Please, for your family’s sake, get tested for dementia. Meds can help, at least for a while.
But anyway, since you asked, here’s a Democrat mayor of an actual border town complaining about the open border Biden created when he abandoned the Trump policies that were working:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9387673/Democratic-mayor-Texas-border-town-says-Bidens-handling-crisis-slap-face.html
“Joe Biden has been accused of betraying the residents of a small Texan border town, who feel let down by his administration’s border policies.
Bruno Lozano, the Democrat mayor of Del Rio, 150 miles west of San Antonio, said that he was ‘pleading’ with Washington DC to help his town.
He said his town of 35,000 people currently sees 150 migrants arriving a day, but they do not have the resources to cope.
‘You have a breach of national security levels that have never before been seen in modern history and you’re not even batting an eye about it, you’re not even calling it a ‘crisis’, you’re calling it a quote unquote challenge,’ he told The New York Post.
‘It’s a slap in the face.'”
Do y0u need more links, Manny? Here’s a Dem. border mayor saying the exact same thing the Uvalde mayor said. I can provide more links if you need them.
“What do you know, Democrats know how to get things done. Unlike the racist orange buffoon that is all talk and no action. Breaking news;
The Biden administration has secured agreements for Mexico, Honduras, and Guatemala to tighten their borders and stem the flow of migration, Special Assistant to the President for Immigration for the Domestic Policy Council Tyler Moran told MSNBC Monday.”
So, basically, Biden is trying to RE-IMPLEMENT Trump’s border policies. Trump HAD Mexican soldiers stopping illegals from Central America from entering. He HAD the Central American countries keeping their people in, stopping the caravans before they started. All that had been worked out and was working well, until Biden came and trashed it. But hey, good on Biden for re-instituting Trump’s policies, at least some of them. Now, if he would just finish it out and finish the wall and deport every swinging dick, period, we’d be on to something.
Here’s the Eagle Pass mayor, Luis Sifuentes, describing how out of control the border is under Biden:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/soccer/texas-border-town-mayor-says-illegal-immigrants-have-been-hiding-in-homes-backyards/vi-BB1fkpT3
Watch the video, Manny. He’s Hispanic, a Dem., a border mayor. Is he lying? Do you need more links? Maybe a link from a black midget with 8 fingers describing the madness at the border? What will it take for you to accept reality, Manny?
The Del Rio Mayor is asking for money, so you agree that he should be given millions is that correct, Bill?
You do know that he is a glory hound seeker, wore his high heels and make-up to his inauguration.
Bill, your mind is so full of hate. Old people do tend to die, Bill. Your mother did and if she was like you, a racist.
So I have problems because I won’t believe the BS that you write, that is funny.
As to the Mayor of Eagle Pass; glad you agree with him;
“Eagle Pass Mayor Luis E. Sifuentes stated that the citizens of the community do not support the construction of the $50-$60 Million Trump Border Wall for the sole purpose of replacing the existing border wall within the city limits.
Mayor Sifuentes noted that it is a waste of U.S. taxpayers funds to spend between $50-$60 Million to simply replace an existing fence that is working and does not need repairs. Sifuentes suggested that these federal monies would best be used to build infrastructure and a high technology border national security defense system. Sifuentes added that in light of the COVID-19 pandemic these federal funds can be better used to protect the health and safety of American citizens instead of building an unnecessary fence. Sifuentes called the proposed construction of the replacement fence as “ridiculous.”
Bill, you a piece of manure, and anything you write has the stink of manure. Manure may be smarter than you, however.
One more thing, Bill there are hundreds of towns along the border, you can find only two, and one of them was anti-Trump.
You are sick, Bill. You need to check yourself into a hospital and ask them to check if you have a heart.
As to Bruno Lozano, he ran against Trump;
“During his campaign, Lozano ran on a platform of public opposition to Donald Trump.
The President began his campaign by attacking border town and immigrants. The current administration continues this line of policy, saying border towns are cesspools of violence. Lozano denounced this rhetoric.”
You are still a piece of manure Bill, the sooner you die the sooner the world will be a better place.