Tag Archives: Joe Biden

A high level look at the changing suburbs

Posted on November 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a broad and high-level look at what I’m digging into now. Although they didn’t get the blue wave they expected, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of the most competitive and populous suburban counties in … Continue reading →

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Please stop with the straight ticket voting anecdotes

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Either bring me some real data or leave these just so stories alone. Judging from Donald Trump’s unpopularity in Dallas County, Morgan Meyer and Angie Chen Button should have been doomed this November. Meyer and Button are the only two … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

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The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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Harris County posts updated election results

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . That won’t affect most races, and it probably does not affect any Harris-County specific races. But if provisional ballots are like that statewide, it could affect larger, close elections. I’m particularly watching Chief Justice for the 14th … Continue reading →

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The state of the county 2020

Posted on November 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Mostly, COVID is bad and we’re not getting much help, and we’re also not allowed to do the things we know we need to do. Other than that… The worsening COVID-19 pandemic in Texas, which this week became the first … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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More early data from State Rep districts

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Derek Ryan on Twitter: . President Trump won House District 74, a Democrat-held district in West Texas along the border, with 53.1%. He also won House District 31, a Democrat-held district in South Texas with 56.2%. — Derek Ryan … Continue reading →

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Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

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It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

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If W can accept the outcome…

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Seems like a basic exercise in maintaining democracy, but what do I know? Former President George W. Bush congratulated President-elect Joe Biden on Sunday, sending a clear signal to other Republicans, including President Donald Trump, who are questioning the election … Continue reading →

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A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

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Houston celebrates Biden’s win

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Aw, hell yeah. “Honk for 270!” When CNN announced Joe Biden had crossed the 270-electoral college vote mark needed to secure the presidency, Terrance Koontz elatedly shouted at Saturday’s “Voters Decide: Count Every Vote” rally in Southwest Houston. “Let’s let … Continue reading →

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A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

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Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

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So what happened in the Latino counties?

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s go to the data: County Trump Clinton Trump Biden ============================================= Bexar 240,333 319,550 303,871 440,823 Cameron 29,472 59,402 48,834 63,732 Dimmit 974 2,173 1,384 2,264 El Paso 55,512 147,843 81,235 168,801 Frio 1,856 2,444 2,812 2,421 Hidalgo 48,642 118,809 … Continue reading →

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The role Harris County can play in turning Texas blue

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big county + big turnout = big margin. Texas is not the sort of place national candidates visit just before Election Day or where political ads play on a loop during popular TV shows. And, yet, here we are: Texas … Continue reading →

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A focus on the SCOTX races

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

With so much litigation over a variety of voting issues, the Supreme Court of Texas is in the news a lot these days. Will that mean more attention being paid to the four races for SCOTX positions? The sleepy contests … Continue reading →

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Today is Election Day

Posted on November 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It almost feels unreal, doesn’t it? Like some people have been saying while on line at voting locations, we’ve been waiting four whole years for this. Now it’s here, Texas is considered a swing state, the Lege is in play, … Continue reading →

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A few thoughts about Election 2020 before Tuesday

Posted on November 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a brain dump, to get this all out there before we find out what happened. Let’s start with this: After the conclusion of three weeks of early voting, 9.7 million Texans have cast ballots, crushing previous early voting totals … Continue reading →

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Univision: Trump 49, Biden 46

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Always time for one more poll, apparently. The race for the White House in Texas is so close in the Nov 3 presidential election that it’s beginning to look uncharacteristically like a swing state, according to a new Univision News … Continue reading →

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DFP: Biden 49, Trump 48

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, from Twitter: . Biden leads 54 to 45 among those that have already voted. For more information on early vote statistics (and for live results on election night) visit https://2020.dataforprogress.org. — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 10:50 AM – … Continue reading →

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More investment from Bloomberg

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Once again, better late than never. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg is funding a last-minute ad blitz on behalf of Joe Biden in Texas and Ohio, providing a boost to the former vice president as polls and a flutter of late campaign … Continue reading →

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NYT/Siena: Trump 47, Biden 43

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Possibly the last poll of interest for the cycle. President Trump maintains a narrow lead in Texas, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll on Monday, as he faces a rebellion in the state’s once overwhelmingly Republican suburbs but … Continue reading →

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Bloomberg drops some money in the RRC race

Posted on October 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I have four things to say about this. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has made a late donation of $2.6 million to the Democratic nominee for railroad commissioner, Chrysta Castañeda, providing a massive fundraising boost in a race for the oil and … Continue reading →

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UH-Hobby: Trump 50, Biden 45

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a poll result that stands in contrast to the others we have seen lately. President Donald Trump is leading Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden by more than five points among likely voters in Texas, according to a poll released … Continue reading →

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Here comes Kamala

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a little fuel to the “Texas is in play” fire. Kamala Harris, Joe Biden’s running mate and the California U.S. senator, will be visiting Texas on Friday, according to an email Biden’s campaign sent to Democratic lawmakers in Texas … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 45

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The late run of good polls in Texas for Joe Biden continues. Former Vice President Joe Biden has regained a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, after wooing more independents and Hispanics, according to a poll released Sunday … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The overview is here and there are some words that I’ll include shortly, but for the headline we’ll need this picture: I know it says “Tied” despite the “Biden 48, Trump 47” listing. My guess is that the exact numbers … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 47, Trump 47

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Very interesting. In the home stretch of the 2020 presidential election campaign, former Vice President Joe Biden is in a tied race with President Donald Trump in the reliably red state of Texas, and he holds a single digit lead … Continue reading →

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DFP: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter: . Police cars revolving lightNew Poll – TX Police cars revolving light Biden 47 – Trump 46 Cornyn 44 – Hegar 41 https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-5/toplines/tx.pdf — Data For Progress (@DataProgress) 8:21 PM – 18 October 2020 What’s interesting about this … Continue reading →

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“I opposed him in private before completely supporting him in public”

Posted on October 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, this guy is a weasel. And honestly, that’s insulting to weasels. U.S. Sen. John Cornyn acknowledged Friday that at times he has disagreed with President Trump on issues such as budget deficits and debt, tariffs and trade agreements and … Continue reading →

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