Tag Archives: Joe Biden

What is the level of Latino support for Trump in Texas?

Posted on August 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We have some contradictory evidence this week. First, from Texas Elects: President Trump leads presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, 48%-41%, among “all voters” and by a slightly smaller 49.5%-44% margin among voters who indicated they were “extremely likely to vote,” … Continue reading →

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Do not wait with your mail ballot

Posted on August 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You have been warned. The U.S. Postal Service has warned Texas officials that some ballots cast by mail may not arrive in time to be counted for the November election thanks to certain state deadlines for mail-in ballots being incompatible … Continue reading →

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The Kamala effect

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I assume you are all aware that California Sen. Kamala Harris is now the Democratic nominee for Vice President. I didn’t post about that on Wednesday because it was hardly news by the time I published, but there are things … Continue reading →

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Now we’re getting favorable State House polls

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A recent poll of Texas House District 126, conducted for Democratic challenger Natali Hurtado’s campaign shows her essentially tied with Republican incumbent Sam Harless. The poll of 401 likely voters, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showed Hurtado … Continue reading →

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CD24 poll: Valenzuela 47, Van Duyne 41

Posted on August 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the Twitters: Big #TX24 numbers in Morning Score this AM @candacefor24 leading @Bethvanduyne 48-41 @JoeBiden leading @realDonaldTrump 49-45 — Cole Leiter (@coleleiter) 6:41 AM – 6 August 2020 You can see the poll info here. The 48-41 and 49-45 … Continue reading →

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Hegar to get a boost

Posted on August 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Nice. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced Tuesday that it will spend at least $1 million to help MJ Hegar in her challenge to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas. The DSCC said it will be the first time the committee … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 46

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Looks like maybe we’ll get a regular dose of these. Democrats enter the peak of the campaign season with advantages that make their path to regaining control of the Senate easier for strategists and handicappers to envision alongside a Joe … Continue reading →

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Biden’s team in Texas

Posted on August 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Get to it, y’all. Joe Biden’s campaign is naming its first hires for the general election in Texas, where polls continue to show a close contest between the presumptive Democratic nominee and President Donald Trump. Biden’s state director will be … Continue reading →

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CD25 poll: Roger Williams 45, Julie Oliver 43

Posted on July 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is genuinely astonishing. To showcase just how extensively Trump’s decline has shifted the playing field, the DCCC shared with the Washington Post details of an in-house poll it conducted of Texas’ deep-red 25th Congressional District that finds Joe Biden … Continue reading →

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Morning Consult: Biden 47, Trump 45

Posted on July 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The hits keep coming. Another day, another poll showing that Texas is up for grabs despite President Donald Trump’s bluster. Former vice president Joe Biden leads 47-45, with only one in 20 voters still undecided, in a Morning Consult poll … Continue reading →

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CD03 poll: Taylor 43, Seikaly 37

Posted on July 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I expect we’ll see a fair amount of Congressional district polling this cycle. There is a single-digit race underway for Texas’ traditionally red 3rd Congressional District, according to a new poll from the new Democratic nominee’s campaign. The nominee, Lulu … Continue reading →

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Congratulations, everyone. Not only have we made it to the other side of another quarterly reporting period, we have also successfully navigated the primary runoffs. My next quarterly finance report post for Congress will thus be shorter, as this is … Continue reading →

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A deeper dive into the Texas polls

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Decision Desk: Whenever there is a new poll of Texas released, there are a ton of hot takes on Twitter. Old believers of Texas as the great blue whale for the Democrats move to dismiss the poll, saying that … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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What Ted Cruz is scared of

Posted on July 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s give him a reason for it. U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz delivered a dire message to Texas Republican activists on Saturday about the danger President Donald Trump faces in November here. “This is a real race,” Cruz told the Republican … Continue reading →

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More pressure on Biden to really compete in Texas

Posted on July 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Fine by me. With President Donald Trump’s poll numbers sliding in traditional battlegrounds as well as conservative-leaning states, and money pouring into Democratic campaigns, Joe Biden is facing rising pressure to expand his ambitions, compete aggressively in more states and … Continue reading →

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

Posted on July 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading →

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2020 primary runoff results: Statewide

Posted on July 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It was a tight race all night, but it looks like MJ Hegar will win. MJ Hegar was holding a 5-percentage-point lead over Royce West on Tuesday night in the Democratic primary runoff for U.S. Senate, according to unofficial results. … Continue reading →

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CBS News/YouGov: Trump 46, Biden 45

Posted on July 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe a tad bit of a letdown after yesterday’s result, but still quite solid. The coronavirus outbreak is reshaping the presidential race in three key Sun Belt states. Joe Biden is now leading President Trump by six points in Florida, … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Biden 48, Trump 43

Posted on July 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Holy mackeral. Former Vice President Joe Biden has built a 5-point lead over President Donald Trump in Texas, as unease over Trump’s handling of coronavirus mounts, a new Dallas Morning News-University of Texas Tyler poll has found. If the general … Continue reading →

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A more extensive look at the state polls

Posted on July 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, I’ve been computing a poll average for the Presidential race in Texas based on post-primary numbers, meaning that I start with the April 25 UT/Trib result and go from there. As of the June 25 Fox poll, … Continue reading →

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The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

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PPP: Biden 48, Trump 46

Posted on July 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And here’s poll number two, which is technically about the Texas Senate race but I’m counting it as a Presidential poll for consistency. Public Policy Polling’s newest Texas survey finds that John Cornyn has basically no profile in Texas. Only … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 48, Biden 44

Posted on July 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

We had two Presidential polls drop on Thursday. Here’s the first, I’ll do the second for tomorrow. President Donald Trump would beat former Vice President Joe Biden in Texas by 4 percentage points if the election were held today, according … Continue reading →

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What should Joe Biden do in Texas?

Posted on June 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

“Win” would be my preferred answer, but it’s more complicated than that. No matter how frequently it happens, it’s always a bit startling. Ever since February 2019, polls have been coming out indicating that former Vice President Joe Biden is … Continue reading →

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Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on June 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading →

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PPP/PT: Trump 48, Biden 46

Posted on June 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Today, Progress Texas released statewide Texas voter poll results, showing Democrats are within striking distance in both the Presidential and U.S. Senate races in Texas. What does this mean? Texas voters are fed up with Texas … Continue reading →

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The Economist’s 2020 Presidential election model

Posted on June 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here it is, the first official model of the year. Four months ago, Donald Trump’s odds of winning a second term had never looked better. After an easy acquittal in his impeachment trial, his approval rating had reached its highest … Continue reading →

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PPP: Trump 48, Biden 48

Posted on June 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You want polls, we got polls. In a Texas survey done for the Texas Democratic Party, we found Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied in the state at 48. Only 46% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Trump 44, Biden 43

Posted on June 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Nice. President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are locked in a very tight race in Texas, with Trump receiving 44 percent of the vote and Biden receiving 43 percent in a general election matchup, according to a … Continue reading →

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Runoff reminder: Statewide

Posted on June 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As I said in the interview posts for SD14, I’m going to revisit the runoff races of interest ahead of early voting. It’s been awhile since we’ve really paid attention to a lot of these folks, what limited news there … Continue reading →

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Biden campaign says it will compete in Texas

Posted on May 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That is what we want to hear. Former vice president Joe Biden is planning to compete against President Trump in traditionally Republican states such as Arizona, Texas and Georgia as his campaign bulks up in size and turns to a … Continue reading →

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Emerson: Trump 47, Biden 41

Posted on May 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Next up. The latest Emerson College/Nexstar Media polls of Texas, California, and Ohio show President Donald Trump with a slight advantage in Ohio and Texas in the general election against presumptive Democratic nominee former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump also … Continue reading →

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UT-Tyler/DMN: Trump 43, Biden 43

Posted on May 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

New day, new poll. Donald Trump and Joe Biden are in a dead heat in the race for Texas, signaling that the Lone Star State is evolving into a presidential battleground. A new Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler … Continue reading →

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