Tag Archives: CD24

As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading

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Once again with female Congressional candidates

This is another post that was drafted in the Before Times, specifically right after the March primary. I went through the runoffs and assessed all of the races that could or would contain a female candidate or incumbent against a … Continue reading

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CD24 poll: Valenzuela 47, Van Duyne 41

From the Twitters: Big #TX24 numbers in Morning Score this AM @candacefor24 leading @Bethvanduyne 48-41 @JoeBiden leading @realDonaldTrump 49-45 — Cole Leiter (@coleleiter) 6:41 AM – 6 August 2020 You can see the poll info here. The 48-41 and 49-45 … Continue reading

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Congressional Dems winning the money race in Texas

The times, they have definitely changed. Early this election cycle, U.S. Sen. John Cornyn publicly worried about complacency within the Texas Republican political class — even after Democratic gains made in 2018. So in early 2019, the state’s senior senator … Continue reading

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A slightly less rosy view of Democratic prospects

Here’s the latest race ratings from Texas Elects: Texas Election Source has updated 27 race ratings based on the latest polling, July campaign finance reports and primary runoff results. Twenty of those races moved one column toward the Democrats’ advantage. … Continue reading

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Checking in on CD21

Thar’s the race where Wendy Davis is trying to unseat the mini-Ted Cruz known as Chip Roy, and the pundits are thinking she can do it. All signs are pointing toward a competitive race between incumbent conservative firebrand U.S. Rep. … Continue reading

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July 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Congratulations, everyone. Not only have we made it to the other side of another quarterly reporting period, we have also successfully navigated the primary runoffs. My next quarterly finance report post for Congress will thus be shorter, as this is … Continue reading

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Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading

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2020 primary runoff results: Congress

I’m going to bullet point these just for simplicity. There will be news stories to look at later. CD03 Dem: Lulu Seikaly cruised to an easy win here. She was just over 60% at around 10 PM, with some Election … Continue reading

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The progressives and the runoffs

May as well check in on this. Judging from March, the ideological left wing of the Democratic Party in Texas should be inconsolable. After months of high hopes, the faction ran into a centrist buzz saw in the March 3 … Continue reading

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A bullish take on the State House

From Mike Hailey of Capitol Inside: The wildly unpredictable coronavirus appears to be fueling a massive blue wave that sweeps the Democrats back into power in the Texas House of Representatives with President Donald Trump as their all-time greatest ally. … Continue reading

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Three runoff stories

Just a sample from three high-profile and highly-contested Democratic primary runoff races. TX-SEN: MJ Hegar versus Royce West No two issues have impacted the Texas primary runoffs like the coronavirus pandemic and the protests surrounding George Floyd’s death, but as … Continue reading

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Runoff reminder: Congress

Previously, we looked at the two statewide runoffs in the Democratic primary. Today we’re going to look at four Congressional primary runoffs. There are more than four total runoffs in Congressional primaries, but these are in the districts that are … Continue reading

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Comparing the April finance reports

In my roundup of April finance reports for Congress, I said I’d do a comparison of the 2018 numbers to 2020. I’m a blogger of his word, so let’s have that look. Dist Year Name Raised Spent Loans On Hand … Continue reading

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April 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Hey, remember politics? You know, races and finance reports and stuff like that? Yeah, it’s still happening, weird as that may seem right now. As we are well into April, the Q1 Congressional finance reports for 2020 are in, and … Continue reading

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading

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Runoff roundup

Here, as best as I can determine, are the runoffs of interest for May: US Senate – MJ Hegar versus Royce West CD02 – Sima Ladjevardian versus Elisa Cardnell CD03 – Lulu Seikaly versus Sean McCaffity CD10 – Mike Siegel … Continue reading

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2020 primary results: Senate and Congress

In the US Senate primary, MJ Heger is clearly headed to the runoff. It’s less clear who’s in second place, in part because the statewide results are so out of date on both the Trib and SOS pages. As of … Continue reading

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Six questions for today’s voting

In some semblance of an order… 1. How will the early vote differ from the Tuesday vote? I’m mostly talking about the Presidential race here. We strongly suspect today will be a very big day at the ballot box, in … Continue reading

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January 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

The big ones for this cycle the Q4 2019 Congressional finance reports. For the last time, we have new candidates joining the list, and a couple of folks dropping out. Let’s do the thing and see where we are going … Continue reading

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On Republican female Congressional candidates

The sub-head for this article should be “It’s easy to show large percentage gains when you start from a very low base”. Heavy recruiting of female candidates paid off for Texas Democrats in 2018, but it is Republican women who … Continue reading

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After-deadline filing review: Congress

Let’s continue our walk through the filings. I’m going to take a look at some of the interesting Congressional races, skipping over the ones we just looked at. CD01: It’s still not remotely competitive, but I once again want to … Continue reading

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Our first Congressional race ratings

From Politico, here’s the early view of the state of Texas’ Congressional races in 2020. Lean Dem CD23 (Open, R) CD32 (Allred, D) Tossup CD07 (Fletcher, D) CD22 (Open, R) CD24 (Open, R) Lean GOP CD02 (Crenshaw, R) CD10 (McCaul, … Continue reading

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October 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Moving on to the Q3 FEC reports, we again have new candidates making their appearance. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, the April report is here, and the July report is here. For comparison, … Continue reading

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PPP: Competitive Congressional districts are competitive

Some nice data points for you. A handful of Republican-held House seats in the Texas suburbs represent fertile ground for competitive races in 2020, according to recent Democratic polling. The surveys in six GOP districts, shared first with CQ Roll … Continue reading

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Try, try again

A lot of women ran for office as Democrats in 2018. A lot of them won, and a lot of them who didn’t win are trying again. [Gina Ortiz Jones isn’t] the only woman who’s back for a second round. … Continue reading

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Five for fleeing

There goes another one. U.S. Rep. Bill Flores announced Wednesday morning that he would not run for reelection in 2020 — making him the fifth Texas Republican to announce his retirement from Congress. “Serving my country as the Representative of … Continue reading

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How many Congressional seats are really in play for Texas Dems?

By one measure, more than you probably think. From Jonathan Tilove of the Statesman: Last weekend, I read an interview in Salon with Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Va. She is also an … Continue reading

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With silver linings like these…

…Who needs misfortune? Even Texas Republicans are a bit amused with the clever new Democratic battle cry that’s emerged amid a recent spate of GOP congressional retirements: “Texodus.” First came U.S. Rep. Pete Olson of Sugar Land on July 25. … Continue reading

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Marchant joins the exodus

The line at the door keeps growing. U.S. Rep. Kenny Marchant will not seek reelection in 2020, two sources confirmed to The Texas Tribune late Sunday. He is the fourth member of the Texas delegation to announce his retirement in … Continue reading

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Rep. Will Hurd to step down

Wow. I did not see this coming. The U.S. House’s last black Republican member, Rep. Will Hurd of Helotes, announced Thursday that he is retiring from Congress. President Donald Trump’s racist comments about elected officials weighed heavily on Hurd, who … Continue reading

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July 2019 campaign finance reports: Congress

Let’s move over to Congress and the Senate, where there are several new candidates, with more on the way. The January roundup is here, which closed out the 2017-18 election cycle, and the April report is here. For comparison, the … Continue reading

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We’ll have a much better idea of who the candidates are soon

There are a lot of people filing to run for Congress as Democrats. It remains to be seen how many of them are viable. Three times as many Democrats have already filed to run for Congress in Texas this year … Continue reading

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We have a candidate in CD06

Good. A Waxahachie Democrat who is business partners with Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins is running for Congress in 2020 against Rep. Ron Wright, an Arlington Republican who was first elected to office last year. Stephen Daniel, an attorney, on … Continue reading

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