Why are we subsidizing privatized HOA trash collection?

Mayor Whitmire says he’s on the lookout for waste in the budget. May I suggest he look here?

Mayor John Whitmire

Houston has subsidized the private trash collection of some affluent neighborhoods for almost 40 years, a policy that could complicate the city’s consideration of a monthly garbage fee to help head off a looming budget deficit.

Experts warn that implementing a garbage fee without ending the $3.3 million annual sponsorship to homeowner associations and civic clubs, representing some 47,000 households, could result in an additional burden on lower-income communities.

The city has given participating associations $6 per household each month for their private garbage collection since the 1980s, resulting in neighborhoods with higher average median incomes receiving more frequent services, in part, on the taxpayers’ dime.

The subsidy presents the city with a conundrum amid the Whitmire administration’s efforts to eliminate a budget deficit that is expected to top $200 million in fiscal 2025.

Keeping the subsidy while imposing a garbage fee on the 437,000 households whose trash is collected by the city could provide an incentive for more neighborhoods to switch to private services, which would leave lower-income residents paying for more infrequent service.

Do away with the subsidy and some of those HOAs and civic clubs could decide to change to city collection, raising the question of whether Houston has the capacity to add new neighborhoods to existing routes.

Mayor Sylvester Turner unsuccessfully tried to eliminate the subsidy eight years ago and faced criticism from affected residents. The idea has not been publicly raised since.

[…]

The city spends more than $3.3 million a year to subsidize private garbage collection for residents who live within participating civic or homeowners associations – accounting for 10 percent of the households needing garbage collection services.

District G residents represent almost 45 percent of all sponsored households with more than 21,000 participating residents, according to data from the Solid Waste Management Department. District E has the second highest number of participants, 19,000 people.

Together, the city subsidies total more than $2.9 million annually for the two council districts, which have the second and third highest median incomes in the city.

Private trash collection comes with varying benefits depending on the company, but can include two pickups per week, no limit on the number of trash cans and back door collection service. Taking away the subsidy could have wide-reaching effects for some HOAs, an administrator for Lakeside Island told the Landing.

Matt Garvis has worked for Lakeside Island, a neighborhood association in West Houston, for nine years and lives in the area’s larger Lakeside Improvement Association. Prices for garbage collection and constable service have increased in recent years, prompting a recent internal vote to increase the annual fees, he said.

Without the garbage subsidy, the HOA would have an approximate $40,000 hole in its budget, he said.

The subsidy has been at $6 since its inception and reasonably could be raised to compete with inflation, District G Councilmember Mary Nan Huffman told the Landing. Huffman lives in an HOA-represented neighborhood that receives the monthly subsidy, and questioned the viability of a citywide fee.

“What would happen if you don’t pay your garbage fee?” she asked. “Are they going to stop picking up your trash?”

The subsidies save the city money, Huffman said, because it would cost more per household to pick up the trash itself. Houston’s 311 service center data shows that missed trash pickup was one of the most frequent problems reported by residents.

“Even if you know, say, all the neighborhoods in District G decided that they wanted to go back to city trash, the city doesn’t have the capacity to take on these neighborhoods,” Huffman said.

Garvis did not think neighbors would be as upset about the cancellation of the subsidy if they had the option to keep private services without paying the city fee. He said some residents likely would want to switch providers if the city fee was cheaper, but he echoed the concern that the city does not have the capacity.

“I don’t know how many neighborhoods would call their bluff,” he said.

Yeah, I don’t believe that a bunch of wealthy neighborhoods are going to give up their fancy specialized trash collection service in favor of the city’s trash pickup if they suddenly stop getting a $6 monthly check from the city. (*) I understand why they wouldn’t like losing out on that subsidy – it doesn’t say how it came to be a thing in the first place; my best guess is it’s one of those “it’s good to be rich” situations – but my response to that is “too bad”. This to me is where a Mayor Whitmire can really make a difference. I look forward to seeing what he does.

(*) Seriously, how does this work? Do they get a $6 monthly reduction on their water bill or property taxes? Is there a direct payment to each household? Or is there an annual lump sum given to the homeowners’ associations?

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New Sports Authority board chair

Noting for the record.

Harris County-Houston Sports Authority chairman J. Kent Friedman is stepping down, he confirmed to the Chronicle on Friday morning.

Mayor John Whitmire requested Friedman be replaced by Juan C. Garcia as chair, according to city council agenda documents. Garcia’s confirmation will come before Houston City Council on Wednesday.

Friedman presided as chair over the organization, which is in charge of financing the city’s professional sports stadiums and protecting city and county credit ratings, since 2003.

Friedman said he will step down sometime next week, but did not offer more details about his exit. A spokesperson for the sports authority referred questions about Friedman’s departure to City Hall.

All the sports authority’s board of directors members are appointed by city and county leaders. Garcia’s confirmation will also have to be passed by Harris County Commissioners Court, according to council agenda documents.

Garcia’s appointment will come before the commissioners Tuesday, according to agenda documents.

Garcia, a lawyer, is also extensively involved in RODEOHouston. He has served the organization as an executive committee member, board of director member, risk management committee member and lifetime president, according to a copy of his resume provided by Whitmire’s office.

[…]

Friedman’s exit from the organization marks another high profile departure in recent weeks. The Board of Directors recently moved to fire longtime CEO Janis Burke, who led the organization for 18 years, after she came under fire for transparency and facility maintenance concerns by Whitmire and other top sports executives.

Burke’s interim replacement is Chris Canetti, who serves as the World Cup host committee president. The sports authority board plans to gather a committee to hunt for a permanent CEO.

See here for the background. Friedman’s one of those guys who feels like he’s been around since the Allen Brothers, but I suppose all things do eventually come to an end. I remain agnostic about the personnel changes and curious about the original motivation for canning Janis Burke. Still waiting for someone to speak out of turn about that one.

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November 2024 early voting Day Seven: The weekend

Just going to get right into it here. Your early voting results through Sunday, Day Seven:

2024

2020

2016

2008 and 2012

The numbers after seven days of early voting are

Mail = 44,805
In Person = 686,937
Total = 731,742

We have surpassed the final early voting totals from 2008 and 2012. The Saturday total of 75,778 was slightly more than it was in 2016 and the first Saturday of 2020, and the Sunday total of 45,165 was more ahead of the 2020 and 2016 totals than Saturday was. My prediction for this week is that the daily totals will exceed by a considerable amount the Week 2 and Week 3 daily totals from 2020. Have you voted yet?

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Cruz files FEC complaint over Allred ads

I’m laughing.

Not Ted Cruz

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign manager filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission Thursday, accusing U.S. Rep. Colin Allred’s campaign of illegally coordinating on television ads with the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

Cruz’s campaign cited a series of ads running in Texas paid for by the DSCC and Allred’s campaign they claim cost $10.6 million, exceeding the $2.8 million cap on coordinated expenditures between a candidate and their party. Campaigns and national committees like the DSCC can spend in excess of that amount on so-called “hybrid ads” that include generic party messaging, but Cruz’s campaign is claiming the four ads in question do not qualify under FEC rules.

“Colin Allred’s campaign is illegally coordinating with Chuck Schumer and the DSCC. We are calling on the FEC to immediately investigate and put a stop to this flagrant violation of federal law,” Cruz’s campaign said in a statement.

Allred’s campaign referred questions to the DSCC, which said the ads followed existing FEC guidance on what is and is not allowed in hybrid ads.

“The DSCC is running the same kind of advertisements that the (National Republican Senatorial Committee), the Republican National Committee and Republican members of the FEC all argued are legal — and that are being run by Republican Senate campaigns across the country,” a DSCC spokesperson said.

[…]

Earlier this year Democrats challenged the NRSC’s practice of running ads for individual candidates that looked like fundraising appeals, allowing them to get cheaper ad rates and save millions of dollars on advertising. The FEC deadlocked 3-3 along party lines, and the practice has been allowed to continue, opening the door for both parties to run the type of “hybrid” ads in question, the DSCC is arguing.

However, Cruz’s campaign is claiming the ads do not devote equal time to “generic” candidates and issues, and Cruz and Allred themselves. Under FEC rules, hybrid ads are required to be “equally divided” between the two, they say.

In their complaint, Cruz’s campaign counted the number of seconds devoted to Cruz and Allred versus the amount given over to generic campaign issues like abortion. In one instance they write, “the ad features 14 seconds of ‘generic’ content and 13 seconds addressing ‘clearly identified federal candidate[s]’.”

This is hilarious to me for three reasons. One is that “14 seconds of ‘generic’ content versus only 13 seconds of ‘clearly identified federal candidate[s]'”. Like, how do you even measure that, what counts as “generic”, and how is that not sufficiently “equal” by any reasonable definition? Two, you may recall that there have been three complaints filed against Cruz for his podcast-related activities, one back in April with the FEC and the others with the Senate Ethics Committee (one in April and one in July), with no action taken on any of them. I don’t know what his expectations are, but I would advise him to keep them modest. And three, the FEC has been a morass for decades now thanks in part to the Republican appointees’ unwillingness to do anything and in part to the fact that the FEC has limited authority to begin with. If the self-proclaimed hugely bipartisan US Senator Ted Cruz thinks that our campaign finance laws and the enforcement mechanisms we have for them are inadequate, well, he is better positioned than the rest of us to Do Something about it. Please do let me know when he does. The Trib has more.

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Abortion and the High Plains

Good stuff.

Morgan Kirkpatrick was exhausted.

The longtime Lubbock resident and State Board of Education candidate spent most of her morning with other local Democratic candidates campaigning door-to-door ahead of early voting next week. From there, she went to Mahon Library in downtown Lubbock, where more than a dozen volunteers were already writing postcards to voters for her campaign.

Out of chairs, the former teacher opted to sit on the floor and get to work. Yes, she was physically drained, but she is even more tired of seeing Republicans run unopposed in local elections in Texas’ South Plains region her entire adult life.

“It’s hard because the Democratic Party doesn’t have the infrastructure here like the Republican Party does,” said Kirkpatrick, 39. “Democrats here have always felt like we had to be quiet. But if we were a little louder, people would understand this is a battleground that’s up for grabs.”

Democrats have long imagined a blue wave would roll in to break through the conservative landscape in the heart of the South Plains. It hasn’t happened.

In 2016, 66% of voters in Lubbock County elected former president Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. Beto O’Rourke inched a little closer in 2018 — O’Rourke received 35% of the vote in the county while U.S. Senator Ted Cruz had 64%. Trump won the county again in 2020 over President Joe Biden. Gov. Greg Abbott handily won the county over O’Rourke in 2022.

In fact, it is conservative population centers like Lubbock and Amarillo, about 125 miles north, and the state’s suburbs that have kept Democrats from winning any statewide race in two decades.

Still, Democrats in Lubbock — women in particular — are hopeful this year. Fueled by a mix of enthusiasm for Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination and ire over abortion restrictions and other far-right policies, left-leaning women are hoping it’s enough to break through conservative strongholds.

“I feel like Harris has given us reason to envision a win,” Kirkpatrick said.

[…]

Abortion is not on the federal ballot this year, but it is in 10 states, according to KFF. It’s also on the ballot in Amarillo, a city that has consistently voted for Republicans each election cycle. Voters will decide if the city should put in place a “travel ban” like Lubbock’s that restricts the use of the city’s roads for a woman seeking on abortion in another state.

If it passes, people can be sued by Amarillo residents for a minimum of $10,000 if they “aid and abet” a pregnant woman seeking an abortion. This can be by providing transportation, donating to abortion fund networks, or offering any information that would lead to an abortion, regardless of where the person giving the instructions is located.

According to the KFF survey, abortion has become the most important issue for women under 30. The so-called sanctuary city ordinance has far-reaching consequences for people and businesses that violate it, as any organization that uses the mail for items that could produce an abortion would be declared criminal organizations, among other reasons. The ordinance has been criticized as turning neighbor against neighbor by city leaders.

“There is so much more that unites us than divides us,” said Lindsay London, co-founder of the Amarillo Reproductive Freedom Alliance, or ARFA. “And we’re seeing that voters are ready to embrace that at both the local and national level.”

ARFA, a nonpartisan organization, has been at the forefront of the fight against the ordinance. London said she sees a similarity in how Harris’s campaign has brought together “reasonable” people from across the political spectrum through shared values.

I’d say that the big suburbs like Montgomery County are more responsible for Texas remaining red just because there’s a lot more people there, but the margins in the counties that include Lubbock and Amarillo (and I’ll throw in Abilene as well) are awe-inducing:


        Lubbock      Potter      Randall     Taylor
Year   GOP  Dem    GOP  Dem    GOP  Dem    GOP  Dem
====================================================
2008  68.0 31.3   69.2 29.8   80.9 18.3   72.3 26.7
2012  69.9 28.8   71.5 26.9   83.4 15.2   76.1 22.5
2016  66.3 28.3   68.5 26.7   80.0 15.4   72.7 22.0
2020  65.3 33.1   68.5 29.8   78.5 19.8   71.7 26.5

2020 represented a little bit of progress, but there’s still a long way to go. I’ve been an advocate for Democrats putting resources into these cities, with the pitch that they have more in common with the big cities than they do with the surrounding rural areas. Start at the local level and work your way up as needed, but get some different perspectives out there and fight them on the issues. Maybe there will be some evidence from this year’s returns to encourage the development of that approach. I’ll be sure to take a look. I’ll also be sure to plug my interview with Lindsay London of the Amarillo Reproductive Freedom Alliance because they’re doing great work and they deserve your attention.

Anyway, there’s a lot more to this story so give it a read. Whatever happens this year, if we’re going to be serious about winning in 2026 and 2028, we need to have a plan for this part of the state as well.

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Weekend link dump for October 27

Have you voted yet?

Netflix is going all in on Stranger Things Season Five.

“As the need has grown, so has Elevated Access. The organization has continued to enlist volunteer pilots and offer free flights to patients who need reproductive health care, such as abortions and gender-affirming care, but who don’t have access to it where they live, whether due to bans or lack of resources. Elevated Access completed 400 flights in its first 18 months, according to Bonanza. In the past 12 months, it’s completed 1,200.”

I just watched the trailer for the new “Wallace and Gromit” movie. I am ridiculously excited about this.

“Donald Trump is full of stories about his negotiating prowess. Most of them are fiction, and even the ones based on a grain of truth are twisted and exaggerated to fit his standard heroic narrative:”

Attention, Dominion Voting Systems: Call your lawyers ASAP.

I feel like at some point there needs to be real consequences for this kind of bullshit, consequences that are felt directly by the offender. I have no idea what that might look like, and it may very well be the case that no such thing exists in a form that is congruent with our representative democracy. I do hope someone smarter than me is thinking about it, because this shit has to be stopped.

“But to Retzlaff, playing on Saturday was a chance to represent his faith on a stage that is not exactly teeming with people like him. Utah has one of the smallest Jewish populations in America, and at BYU, there are only two other Jewish students. That puts Retzlaff in a strange position: He represents one of the university’s smallest minorities and is also one of its most famous students.”

“The men once known as the Central Park Five—five men who were wrongfully convicted of rape and assault over 30 years ago—filed a lawsuit against Donald Trump on Monday in federal court, alleging the former president acted with “reckless disregard” for the truth when he attacked them during the presidential debate in September.” They have a good case.

RIP, John Kinsel Sr., World War II veteran, Navajo Code Talker. Only two original Code Talkers are still with us now.

“The WNBA players’ union has opted out of its collective bargaining agreement, a historic move aimed at securing higher salaries for players amid a record-breaking year for women’s basketball.”

RIP, Bob Yerkes, longtime Hollywood stuntman who got his start in the circus as a trapeze artist and tightrope walker.

“I just admit that I feel very uninformed to not know that there is a National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum.” Same.

Let them fight.

“I’m a few sizes below the average size of a woman in the UK, and I’m seen as a ‘plus-size heroine.’ Making it about how I look is reductive and boring.”

“A federal judge ordered Rudy Giuliani on Tuesday to hand over a long list of lucrative assets to two Georgia election workers who won a defamation verdict stemming from the former New York City mayor’s 2020 election lies.”

RIP, Fernando Valenzuela, iconic pitcher for the LA Dodgers, later one of their Spanish-language broadcasters. That he died on the eve of a Dodgers-Yankees World Series, after the legend of Fernandomania was forged in the last such Series in 1981, is just incredibly poignant.

“A survey by the Lupus Research Alliance found that a third of lupus patients reported difficulties filling HCQ prescriptions between March and May 2020. That can mean severe complications, including hospitalization—a frequent area of Covid transmission. Trump’s claims about hydroxychloroquine weren’t just another case of buffoonery, Mahler says, but a source of real harm in people’s lives.”

“A list of all the ways DeSantis has tried to meddle in Florida’s abortion ballot measure”.

RIP, Lyda Obst, author, columnist, editor, film producer, longtime advocate for women in Hollywood.

Wishing Matthew Sweet all the best.

RIP, Elizabeth Francis, Houston resident who at the age of 115 had been the oldest living person in the US. She had a sister who lived to be 106; they were in the record books as the oldest living siblings at the time. Her mother died in 1920, which is to say 104 years ago. That’s how long Elizabeth Francis lived.

“An industry group representing cable and internet providers sued along with two others on Wednesday to block a U.S. Federal Trade Commission rule that requires companies to offer simple cancellation mechanisms for subscriptions.”

RIP, Ron Ely, actor who played Tarzan in the 1960s TV series of the same name, and later hosted game shows and the Miss America pageant. Mark Evanier remembered him fondly.

RIP, Amir Abdur-Rahim, men’s basketball coach at the University of South Florida.

RIP, Phil Lesh, bassist and founding member of the Grateful Dead.

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Comparing early voting apples to apples

The Chron’s writeup of the first five days of early voting is an incomplete picture.

Is turnout up or down in Texas in the 2024 election? It depends on how you look at it.

Since early voting began Monday, more than 3 million of the 18.6 million Texans registered to vote have already cast their ballots, with many counties across the state reporting long lines at the polls.

When compared to the last presidential election in 2020, the percentage of voters showing up to the polls in person is higher this year. But the overall voter participation rate this cycle is lagging when factoring in mail-in ballots, which soared in popularity amid the coronavirus pandemic.

[…]

In Harris County, in-person participation is slightly down from 14% to 13% of registered voters. Polling places in some Houston-area counties, especially Fort Bend and Montgomery, are surpassing or meeting 2020 turnout numbers.

Despite the high volume of voters, Texas’ overall participation rate is lagging slightly behind 2020. In the first three days of early voting, 15.1% of registered Texas voters cast ballots, slightly down from 15.7% in 2020, according to the Secretary of State’s office.

That decrease can be in part attributed to a quirk of the 2020 election, when many voters used mail-in ballots amid the coronavirus pandemic.

In this year’s election, only 221,417 mail ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, less than half of the mail ballots that were cast in the first three days of early voting in 2020.

[…]

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said it’s too early to tell whether statewide turnout offers good or bad news for Democrats’ hopes in the hot race for U.S. Senate between Ted Cruz and Colin Allred. More than half of all voters are expected to choose early voting.

Suburban areas like Fort Bend and Denton County, north of Fort Worth, have trended towards Democrats in recent cycles and are currently leading in turnout. And while overall turnout is similar to 2020 levels so far, urban areas could steadily catch up over the weekend, when most rural counties opt to close early voting sites.

There are potential trouble spots for Democrats. The number of votes cast in Dallas and El Paso Counties as of Wednesday decreased from 2020, even though both have registered thousands of new voters.

“Democrats are hoping for blockbuster turnout, and this isn’t necessarily it so far,” said Rottinghaus.

Rottinghaus also noted that the gender gap in voters so far appears to be on par with in 2020.

Some election officials have noted that higher turnout has been sustained into the third and fourth days of early voting, rather than tapering off after the first few days as in past elections.

There are three things that I would add to this:

1. The drop in mail ballots means little to nothing in terms of total output. This is because 2020 was such a singular year and there was so much more of a focus on (and a fight about) voting by mail thanks to COVID. I would bet substantial money that the vast majority of still-living and still-in-Harris-County people who voted by mail in 2020 but are not voting by mail this year will vote in person. Someone with access to the voter rosters in both years could do a spot check on this now, looking to see what the mail voters from 2020 are doing this year.

I’m old enough to remember that the unprecedented surge in early voting in 2008 led to some wildly optimistic projections about the final vote tally, based on past early-versus-Election-Day comparisons and the misplaced belief that the surge in early voting meant a commensurate surge in overall turnout. That just wasn’t the case. A lot of people had changed their behavior, casting an early ballot where before they had voted on Election Day. That was indeed a result of the enthusiasm a lot of Democrats had in 2008 – I lost track of the times I heard a first-time early voter say some variation of “well, if I get hit by a bus tomorrow, at least I voted” that year – but these were reliable voters speaking. It was a shift in when people voted that caused the early voting numbers that we had not seen before.

2. That same shift in behavior, caused in large part by anxiety over COVID and the fear that the longer one waited the more one risked getting sick and not being able to vote, that drove not just voting by mail but also the huge first (four-day) week turnout. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, this time with mail ballots included: In 2020, the first four days of early voting saw an average of 128,021 ballots cast per day. For the remaining 14 days of early voting, that daily average was 67,205. If you want to be generous and exclude the four weekend days, where there would be fewer mail ballots, the daily average was 73,627. That’s a huge dropoff.

The general pattern in most years is a big first day (which includes all of the mail ballots that were received before in person voting started) and a mostly consistent in person showing up to the last day or two, with the last day usually being the biggest in person day of the whole cycle. That wasn’t true in 2020, though the last day was the biggest in person day after the first week. In 2008 and 2012, more total votes were cast in the first five days than the last five days (this is comparing weekdays to weekdays). In 2016 there were more total votes cast in the first five days than the last five, but that was entirely attributable to the 61K mail ballots that had arrived by Day One. The in person total was slightly higher in the last five days.

The point I’m making here is that the comparison from here on out will be very different because the pace of voting slowed down quite a bit in 2020 after that first week. The coverage of early voting so far doesn’t make that clear – it leaves one with the feeling that we will still be trying to catch up to 2020 all next week when in fact we’ll be running well ahead of it. That may or may not get us ahead of the “turnout as a percentage of registered voters” number, but we’ll be right around it. That’s a question better answered later anyway.

3. And that brings me to the third point, which is that – again, driven by the COVID conditions and fears – many more people voted early in 2020 than in other years as a share of the overall turnout. In 2008 and 2012, 63% and 65% of the total vote (mail and in person) was cast before Election Day. In 2016, it was 74%. In 2020, it was a whopping 88% of the vote. Basically, almost no one voted on Election Day in 2020 – about 204K total people, not much more than the 169K votes cast on the first day of Early Voting.

The trend in voting behavior has been more people voting early over time. This isn’t just the case for Presidential elections but for all elections, including the city elections (I very much underestimated the early vote share in both the November election and the December runoff in 2023) and even those dumb HCAD elections this year. So I do expect there to be a higher early vote share than 2016’s 74%. I just don’t expect it to be as big as 2020’s 88% was. Some people do still like to vote on Election Day. My completely out of thin air guess for this year is that about 80% of the total vote will be cast before November 5. I’m saying all this to say that while Early Voting is a big part of the story, it’s not the whole story. Whatever we get in early voting this year, I would be cautious about projecting what it means for the final number based on what happened in 2020. Look back a little farther than that and see if it affects your opinion. It is also the case that someone with all of the relevant voting rosters could look and see how many people who had voted reliably in past elections had not yet done so this year. That would be a better tell.

Hope this helps. I’ll be back on the daily EV tracking tomorrow. Have you voted yet?

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UTSA poll for October: A little weird

Not really sure how to explain this other than to say polls be weird sometimes.

A new survey from UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicated that in bright blue San Antonio, support has been growing for Democrat Colin Allred in his uphill race against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

UTSA poll conducted Oct. 15-20 indicated that Allred’s lead over Cruz in San Antonio increased slightly in the past month, from a 44-28% race in September, to a 48-30% race in the most recent survey.

Statewide, polls shows Cruz leading the race by about one percentage point.

But higher turnout in more Democratic areas could have an impact on the race.

So far, Texas’ major urban centers including San Antonio have been exceeding turnout expectations in the first days of early voting — giving new hope to some Democratic campaign professionals who believe Texas could be closer to turning blue than they initially thought.

The UTSA poll, which launched at the beginning of this year, has made some changes to its methodology since the last survey: This time it used only San Antonio voters, instead of voters from across Bexar County, to avoid confusion about questions that only pertain to San Antonio voters.

Since the UTSA poll is new, whether it reliably predicts the outcome of San Antonio’s vote remains untested, and it’s also unclear how the change in methodology will affect its results — but in a community where local polling is scarce, it gives a rare window into local voter sentiment ahead of the Nov. 5 election.

The survey was conducted using online surveys to query 656 San Antonio likely voters in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.8%.

“This is probably largely a name recognition thing,” said Bryan Gervais, the center’s director and an associate professor in UTSA’s Department of Political Science and Geography, who pointed to Allred’s steady rise locally since UTSA’s first survey in June.

Allred’s growing support comes as the same respondents to UTSA’s poll indicated their overall preference for Democratic candidates has weakened over the past month.

In UTSA’s September survey, San Antonio was riding the high of a new presidential nominee in Harris, and displaying overall enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket.

The October survey showed Harris leading Trump 49-34% among San Antonio voters, down from her 54-35% lead in September.

Voters in the September survey said they’d choose Democratic candidates over Republican candidates 51-35%. In October, that margin had decreased to 46-36%.

Though UTSA’s past surveys excluded residents outside of San Antonio when asking San Antonio-specific questions, Gervais said the decision to switch from Bexar County voters to San Antonio voters was needed for overall clarity.

On this polling memo, residents outside of Bexar County were removed from the September responses to allow for apples-to-apples comparisons.

See here for the September poll and here for the poll memo. The “don’t know” responses ticked up two points in the Presidential race since September, which to me says this may be a sample issue. I don’t know how you get that combination of Allred’s growth and Cruz’s shrinkage without the Presidential numbers going along. For what it’s worth, the “don’t know” contingent in the Senate race is still a lot higher than in the Presidential one, though it inched down a bit from September. I said I’d look for their October poll results after the September one came out, so here it is. I wish them well with this endeavor going forward.

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Cruise partners with the Houston Food Bank

Of interest.

The Houston Food Bank and autonomous vehicle company Cruise launched a program to deliver produce and non-perishable items to expecting mothers in the city.

The deliveries are a part of the Houston Food Bank’s Food Rx program, through which people can receive a food prescription when referred by a designated Healthcare Partner or when they commit to a Community Health Program that improves their health and well-being.

“This innovative program will be very insightful and impactful, and partnership with Cruise allows us to leverage new technology to support at-risk new and expectant mothers with essential food packages delivered right to their doorstep, ensuring they have what they need to care for their families,” said Brian Greene, president/CEO of Houston Food Bank, in a statement.

Cruise will provide the autonomous vehicles with safety drivers to deliver packages of produce and non-perishable to those who are pregnant and high-risk, according to the news release. Houston Food Bank spokesperson Paula Murphy said in an email that the mothers must be signed up for the program, along with their healthcare provider who deems them at high risk, to be eligible.

There will be 180 deliveries to provide 6,000 meals. Murphy said the food deliveries will happen every two weeks, with the next delivery being Oct. 25.

The vehicles will serve several places in Houston in certain ZIP codes.

[…]

Cruise returned to Houston for on-road testing in June after a seven-month pause due to safety concerns involving the company’s vehicles posing potential risks to pedestrians.

See here for some background on Cruise. I assume the reason for the inclusion of the safety drivers is partly because Cruise is very much still working out the kinks in their autonomous driving systems and partly so that a human can actually bring the food to these women’s front doors and not just to the street in front of their house or the parking lot of their apartment. It’s a cool idea and a clever way to generate some goodwill after the debacle that was Cruise’s initial rollout. I hope it all goes well.

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

November 2024 early voting Day Five: The average so far

We’re at the end of the first week of early voting – I was able to wait for the Day Five report before writing this, so I’m caught up for now. It was a very busy week. Let’s take a look:

2024

2020

2016

2008 and 2012

The numbers after five days of early voting are

Mail = 40,189
In Person = 570,609
Total = 610,798

In the first (four-day) week of early voting in 2020, the in person total was 453,637, which is an average of 113,409 per day. It dropped considerably from there, but there were two more weeks to go, so it made up for it in volume. For this five day week, the average was 114,122 in person votes per day. That’s a little ahead of the pace, and week 2 is likely to increase that, as that is the normal pattern for early voting. We’ll see what the weekend looks like as well. I remain comfortable in my estimate that we can get to 1.4 million in early voting.

Have you voted yet? I think Friday’s total of 112,978 in person votes, the third highest of the week, was pretty impressive considering how many people were occupied with rally-related activities. I’ll be voting early next week. Keep on keeping on.

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Ken Paxton also doesn’t care if we execute an innocent man

Shocking, I know, from such a moral paragon.

A week after death row inmate Robert Roberson was set to die, the extraordinary quest to save his life has morphed into a deepening political battle between Texas House lawmakers and the state’s leading Republicans as they trade bitter accusations and push conflicting narratives around his guilt — or likely innocence.

Gov. Greg Abbott on Monday condemned the bipartisan Texas House committee that forced a delay of Roberson’s execution, saying it “stepped out of line.”

Attorney General Ken Paxton, in a graphic press release Wednesday, insisted on Roberson’s guilt and accused the committee of pursuing “eleventh-hour, one-sided, extrajudicial stunts that attempt to obscure the facts and rewrite his past.”

Lawmakers, in return, blasted Paxton for publishing a “misleading and in large part simply untrue” summation of Roberson’s case.

State Rep. Joe Moody, D-El Paso, along with Reps. Jeff Leach, R-Plano, Rhetta Andrews Bowers, D-Rowlett, and Lacey Hull, R-Houston, issued a 16-page, point-by-point rebuttal on Thursday to Paxton’s release, including citations and exhibits shown at trial and since recovered during the appeals process.

The Office of the Attorney General attached the autopsy report of Roberson’s 2-year-old daughter, Nikki Curtis, whom he was convicted of killing, and a statement from the medical examiner who performed it. But Paxton otherwise referred broadly to the trial record and did not acknowledge any of the new evidence presented in Roberson’s appeals.

“There are no new facts in the OAG’s statement, only a collection of exaggerations, misrepresentations and full-on untruths completely divorced from fact and context,” Moody wrote on social media Thursday.

[…]

The argument to carry on with Roberson’s death sentence as pushed by Paxton, the state’s top law enforcement officer, relied on a sometimes misleading and incomplete summation of his trial — itself, Roberson’s advocates say, tainted by a discredited shaken baby diagnosis, incomplete medical records, uncorroborated and prejudicial allegations of sexual abuse, bias against a man with undiagnosed autism, and non-credible testimony about Roberson’s history.

Roberson’s supporters point to reams of new scientific and medical evidence that suggest Nikki died from undiagnosed pneumonia, which suppressed her breathing and was worsened by medications that are no longer prescribed to children, leading to bleeding and swelling in her brain.

The lawmakers in Thursday’s rebuttal refuted Paxton’s claims that Nikki had extensive bruising when Roberson brought her to the hospital, and that she died not only from being violently shaken, but also from “blunt force head injuries” caused by beating.

The autopsy photos, they said, show “almost no outward injuries” — a fact the state acknowledged at trial when asking the medical examiner who conducted the autopsy to explain the “large discrepancy” between “what you see on the outside and what you see on the inside.” The lack of external injuries, in fact, is what led a doctor to diagnose shaken baby syndrome, the lawmakers wrote.

In response to Paxton’s claim that Roberson had a history of violence and domestic abuse, the lawmakers argued that the witnesses who gave that testimony at trial had serious credibility issues and provided no corroborating evidence.

They also condemned Paxton’s reference to another inmate’s claim that Roberson had admitted to molesting his daughter — a report so dubious that even the prosecution did not include it in its case.

“By including this information, the OAG has repeated a lie with, at best, a complete indifference to the truth,” the lawmakers wrote. “The ‘jailhouse snitch’ here wove a tale so outrageously contrary to the evidence that prosecutors didn’t use it at trial.”

And they highlighted the “mountain of evidence and changed science that’s accumulated since Robert’s trial — the same changed science that caused the Court of Criminal Appeals” to overturn another shaken baby conviction out of Dallas County this month.

Roberson’s attorneys issued their own 27-page rebuttal Thursday in response to Paxton’s release.

See here for some background. There’s a long and well-documented history of Ken Paxton just flat lying about stuff – he’s still fighting a State Bar discipline hearing because of his lies in litigation to overturn the 2020 election – and the list of times when he was, let’s say casual about the truth is even longer. Some of the people responding to this have been clear about what Ken Paxton is for a long time, others are chiming in because this time he’s lying about something they care about. I would tell those folks that you can’t trust a liar and should not let liars gain and hold power, which perhaps is some advice they could apply to both the current election and the one in 2026. Be that as it may, this is where we are. I don’t know how this resolves, but I do know what the right course of action is.

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Uplift Harris 2.0 upheld in district court

This is the opening act. The main event comes later.

A judge on Thursday sided with Harris County’s latest iteration of a guaranteed income program, denying Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s office’s application for a temporary restraining order aimed at stopping the initiative from moving forward.

The ruling comes a month after Paxton sued to prevent the county from launching the program.

Harris County has spent much of 2024 trying to use some of its federal COVID-19 recovery funds to provide financial support to struggling residents. Its first attempt was Uplift Harris, a guaranteed income pilot program designed to send $500 monthly payments to low-income residents who met the eligibility criteria and were chosen by a random lottery. After the initial program was blocked by the state, the county made modifications to the plan and tried again, renaming it the Community Prosperity Program. Thursday’s ruling could allow the rebranded program to move forward.

[…]

The Community Prosperity Program works by providing selected residents with a preloaded debit card that limits spending to categories such as housing, utilities and groceries, the county said.

“Harris County addressed the State’s concerns about Uplift Harris, but the Attorney General still felt the need to sue the County again,” Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee said in a statement on Thursday. “This shows that the Attorney General’s lawsuit is not about the law; it’s about using people living in poverty as a means to score political points.”

See here for the previous update. Not to be flip, but a district court judge in Harris County approved the original Uplift Harris program, so there was little reason to think this lawsuit would go any differently. All that matters is the Supreme Court. We’ll get there when we get there.

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November 2024 early voting Day Three: Let’s not overanalyze this

Lone Star Left caught my eye on Wednesday as they looked at the statewide early voting data so far.

All day, I waited for a full update from the Secretary of State (SoS) regarding the Day 1 early voter turnout. Three major counties and ten small rural counties are still not showing their results on the SoS website for Day 1 of early voting. Are the reporting counties slow? Is it the SoS’s fault? That’s unclear at the moment, but we’re already starting to see some numbers from Day 2 coming out, so let’s talk about where we’re at.

Bell, Hays, and Smith are the three major counties that still don’t appear on the SoS website.

Hays County is blue.

Bell County is on the verge of blue.

And Smith County is trending blue, but it will probably be a few more cycles until we can talk about it flipping.

Discounting those three counties plus the smaller, rural ten, here is what the SoS is reporting:

Day 1, in-person votes: 886,526

Day 1, in-person + mail-in votes: 1,049,166

In 2024, we beat the 2020 record for in-person voting by over 130,000 votes, and that’s still without several counties reporting.

I do not think we’ll hit the 1.1 million in-person + mail-in vote record we set in 2020. We’ll probably come close, but due to COVID-19, there were likely many more mail-in votes in 2020. That’s okay because our in-person voting for Day 1 will likely be close to 1 million, a new record.

There is also more good news regarding Day 2. We’ll get to that.

I want to gently point out that despite the “Texas is not a red state it’s a non-voting state” mantra, a high turnout election is not necessarily one that favors Democrats. Exhibit A for that is 2020, a year in which we shattered turnout records and yet Republicans easily won all the statewide races and held serve in the Legislature. Joe Biden came closer than any Democratic Presidential candidate to winning since Bill Clinton, but other Dems still lost by 8-11 points. We have a way to go.

Early voting returns, especially the first couple of days’ worth, can give you some idea of the overall level of enthusiasm, but one must be careful in what conclusions one draws. Josh Marshall sums it up well.

The big reality making it much much more difficult this cycle is that in 2020, voting heavily polarized around Democrats voting early and by mail and Republicans voting on Election Day. Democrats are now much less worried about COVID and Republicans — apart from Trump — are far more focused on getting their voters to vote early. Because of that it’s really a certainty that Republicans will put up better early voting numbers and Democrats “worse” ones than in 2020. We’ve known that now for literally years. Somehow a decent number of people seem to have forgotten that. But we shouldn’t. Again, it would be shocking if Republicans weren’t doing “better” in early voting than they did in 2020. So that in itself really doesn’t tell us anything. The key is we have no good way to predict what the shift “should” be. There’s no baseline. 2020 can’t be a baseline and 2016 or 2012 can’t either because early and mail voting is a rapidly evolving part of American elections. Eight and twelve years ago is ancient history as far as early voting goes.

Indeed, Republicans are voting early. That doesn’t mean they’re headed towards a better outcome, but it is preferable for them to the alternative, which if nothing else increases their risk. We expect the hardcores to vote. We work on everyone else. If you have access to the voter files and you know who has and hasn’t voted before and you know why the previous non-voters didn’t vote before (they have turned 18 or become citizens or moved here since the last election, or they could have voted but didn’t, or they weren’t even registered), then you can draw some inferences and make some plans. The rest of us are mostly guessing.

On a side note, Hays is definitely blue as of 2018/2020 – it was quite close in 2016 but just missed. As for Smith and Bell, these are the Presidential numbers from this century:

Smith


Year     Vote     Pct   Margin
==============================
2004   53,392  72.48%   33,322
2008   55,187  69.36%   31,461
2012   57,331  72.02%   35,875
2016   58,930  69.52%   36,630
2020   69,080  69.02%   39,465

Bell


Year     Vote     Pct   Margin
==============================
2004   52,135  65.39%   24,970
2008   49,242  54.51%    8,829
2012   49,574  57.51%   14,062
2016   51,998  54.74%   14,197
2020   67,893  53.30%   10,879

The “Vote” and “Pct” numbers are for the Republican Presidential candidate, and “Margin” is the difference in votes between him and the Dem Presidential candidate. I think we can say that Bell is trending blue, though not very quickly. Smith, I’m not seeing it. I’d love to be able to say that, but I’ll need to see some favorable data from this year first.

Here’s your Day Three daily dose of data:

2024

2020

2016

2008 and 2012

Day Three 2024 remains ahead of the 2020 pace, with 111,151 in person votes and 3,884 mail votes, for a total of 115,035. In 2020, and note that Day Three then was a Thursday – tomorrow is the last day we can reasonably do this – there were 105,123 in person votes, 6,260 mail votes, and 111,383 overall. Day Four for 2020 was Friday and we’re completely out of sync after that so I’ll need to come up with another gimmick. Be that as it may, we’re at 353,462 in person votes so far, with 34,379 mail votes for a total of 387,841. At this rate, which will probably slow down a bit, perhaps beginning with the weekend, we’d get to 1,413,848 in person early votes. Which would put us on track for about 1.8 million overall, in line with the 2020 turnout rate with the increase in voter registration. Have you voted yet?

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Multiple settlements of AstroWorld injury lawsuits

Noted for the record.

The start of a trial over injuries suffered during the 2021 Astroworld concert has been delayed until February, after more than 300 of the plaintiffs reached settlements with LiveNation and concert headliner Travis Scott, one of the lawyers involved in the massive litigation said.

The settlements does not end the civil proceedings stemming from the concert tragedy, where masses of people were crushed together and some killed as Scott performed, but will require a host of lawyers to designate another round of so-called bellwether plaintiffs to test the strength of the remaining cases.

The result of the first trial could determine how much other victims receive in future trials or settlements.

Court filings show six cases, with two alternates, were set for trial this week. Records about the settlements, and on which cases, were not immediately available.

Scott West, who represented Ezra Blount, Astroworld’s youngest casualty in the wrongful deaths suits, said hundreds of cases, including his own, remain.

The bulk of the cases were settled with an undisclosed lump sum Friday and earlier this month, with West saying the dollar amounts weren’t addressed in court. Special masters appointed in the cases will divide the funds based on their claims.

“All cases are not created [equal],” West said. “We may have somebody who’s had double neck surgery and somebody who had a broken arm. Those cases don’t have the same value.”

The remaining plaintiff lawyers will decide which suits will be set for trial in February. West pointed to a recent ruling by the Supreme Court of Texas ordering the deposition of Live Nation CEO Michael Rapinoe to proceed, likely by then. The company tried to prevent it with a petition for writ of mandamus.

See here and here for some background. All of the wrongful death cases were settled before going to trial, and it won’t surprise me if the same thing happens here. There’s still a lot that has to happen for that, but it’s what I expect.

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Dispatches from Dallas, October 25 edition

This is a weekly feature produced by my friend Ginger. Let us know what you think.

This week, in news from Dallas-Fort Worth we have a lot of election news. No, more than that. Also: the Tarrant County jail; school districts; rail news; Black Dandies; Meat Fight; the State Fair; and more.

This week’s post was brought to you by the music of Air, the French pop band, whom we’re seeing next week.

As always during election season, I urge you to get out and vote. We haven’t voted at our house, but we do have a firm plan and a backup in case we miss our first early voting date.

Let’s start with election business. The Star-Telegram, D Magazine, and the Dallas Observer have voting guides. KERA has you covered for Collin County and the Dallas Morning News has the Frisco ISD bond/tax election for folks in those areas. I also read up on unopposed races in Dallas County where it’s Republicans who don’t bother to put up candidates in countywide races. The DMN also has an editorial on the big issues they’re seeing after interviewing a lot of candidates. They also talked about why they didn’t issue recommendations in any of the Texas Senate races: a combination of lack of time and resources, gerrymandering, and the feeling that anybody who voted against convicting Ken Paxton had already said what they needed to say about party over state.

In Tarrant County, the Fort Worth Report has the lowdown on the open seats on Tarrant County Commissioner’s Court. And the Texas Tribune covers ballot harvesting in the 2022 election in Tarrant County, which the Republicans involved claim shows ballot harvesting and the Democrats involved claim is staged.

I also commend this AP article about Lewisville and Flower Mound flipping the usual script on how Democrats and Republicans vote to your attention. The two north Texas suburbs paint a picture of how the old voting coalitions have fallen apart and are reforming with different SES and ethnic groups.

We also have some news about actual voting here in Dallas and in Fort Worth. Our AG, for once doing something not terrible, has investigated the voting machines here in Dallas County and says they’re OK. Who’s against them? Local GOP Chair and job-hopper Allen West, who thinks 60-70% of votes could be manipulated. There’s a lot of effort going into putting out FUD into voting here in Dallas; there was a FB post about precinct errors at my local library, where I usually vote, on Monday in a local Democratic group. It was swiftly deleted, and a separate and very reassuring post from an election judge telling us what to do if we thought our ballot was wrong showed up not long afterward. Hard to tell if that was a real issue or a psyop! Per the DMN, some precinct errors did happen on Monday because of problems with the check-in devices. I’m planning to keep an eye out for that when I vote. We also saw one incorrect vote in Tarrant County, but it was fixed on the spot and may have been voter error. The Star-Telegram also posted a fact-check about the operation of voting machines to convince readers to get out and vote.

I’ve already pointed at the voting guides, and in previous weeks at the endorsements from the DMN and the Star-Telegram, but I’d like to note that I was pleasantly surprised that the Star-Telegram endorsed Colin Allred for Senate alongside the DMN endorsement. This is the sort of thing that gets the Republican-oriented Star-Telegram dismissed as a pinko commie outlet even if it only seems like common sense to the rest of us.

I’ve left the Dallas HERO amendments for last. There’s a lot to report: the press against the amendments by the Dallas establishment is on. D Magazine has a piece on Proposition U, the one increasing the number of cops and diverting half of future increases in revenue to Dallas PD, which finally points out the elephant in the room: Dallas would never be able to take any of that money out of the police budget without triggering those state laws to punish cities that defund the police. (Thanks Greg Abbott!) D Magazine also has a podcast with former mayor Mike Rawlings to discuss the propositions. Opponents have also talked to KERA and Axios. The DMN has covered local officials doorknocking against the HERO amendments; I haven’t had any of them at my door although my email box has been full of my state senator, Nathan Johnson, telling me to vote against them. But the biggest gun that opponents have pulled against the “STUpid” amendments is the police union. When you’ve lost the cops, you’ve really gone over the edge.

Let’s look at some minor election news and other recent stories in the Metroplex:

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November 2024 early voting Day Two: On average

Reading this story gave me an idea for how to talk about early voting so far compared to 2020.

The first day of early voting for El Paso County’s general election drew 31% fewer voters than the record-setting 2020 race.

El Paso County had 23,678 mail and in-person voters on Monday, down from 34,118 in 2020. Most of the decline was in mail ballots, which spiked to a record high during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Even with decreased voting, county election officials reported occasional lines of 45 minutes or more as people waited to vote.

[…]

Women made up just over 51% of first-day early voters this year, down from 55% at the same time in 2020, according to an El Paso Matters analysis of county voting data. That decline was driven by the sharp drop-off of mail-in voters. Such voters are mostly over 65 years old, and El Paso has far more women voters in that age group because women live longer than men, on average.

Just under half of first-day early voters this year were age 65 or older. That’s down from 53% at the same point in 2020, largely because of fewer mail ballots that are mostly restricted to older voters by Texas law.

First, the drop in mail ballots that I noted yesterday appears to be a broader phenomenon than just Harris County. I think we can reasonably conclude that 2020 was the anomaly, driven by the pandemic, and that what we are seeing this year is mostly a return to normal, with a further drop in Republicans voting by mail thanks to their cult leader candidate. (Again, certain constituencies in Western North Carolina excepted.)

It’s easy to look at the Day One reports from this year and 2020 and ask why is it that even the in-person tally is down a bit, especially in the context of there being more registered voters. I think this too may be a COVID artifact. Let me start with my insight, which is to consider the overall daily average of in person voters for the years of interest. Here again are the EV reports, Day Two for 2024 and final reports otherwise:

2024

2020

2016

2008 and 2012

I’m going all the way back this time. Here now is the average number of in person voters for each of the past years, with the number of early voting days included:


Year  #Days   Total EV   Avg EV
===============================
2008     12    678,312   56,526
2012     12    700,216   58,351
2016     12    882,580   73,548
2020     18  1,264,811  105,401

For each of the first four days in 2020, that first rambunctious week of early voting, there were over 100K in person voters each day. From that point forward, the maximum number was 86,734, achieved on the last day. If you subtract out the first week, the total number of in person voters for the remaining 14 days was 811,174, or an average of 57,941 per day, basically 2008-12 numbers. To say the least, that is very different.

Now of course, the 553,637 people who showed up in the first four days count as well. The point I’m making is that this pace wasn’t maintained – hell, it couldn’t have been, we’d have run out of registered voters before the EV period ended. So since we can’t do a day by day comparison, let’s compare the averages, to see if 2024 if ahead of the 2020 pace or not. The drop in mail voters, while notable, is small enough in context to not be that important, and besides I’d expect many of those folks to vote in person anyway.

As for Day Two 2024, we had 3,470 mail ballots and 115,878 in person voters. That’s a total of 119,318 for the day and 272,808 overall. The in person total for Tuesday slightly edges out Day Two 2020, which had 115,604 in person voters. It’s too soon to calculate an average for 2024, but keeping pace like this with 2020 is cool. Have you voted yet?

UPDATE: On the other hand

After one day of early voting in Bexar County, turnout has “shattered previous records,” according to the Elections Administrator Jacquelyn Callanen — roughly 41% more in-person votes were cast Monday than on the first day of the 2020 presidential election.

Voters cast a total of 46,820 in-person ballots during an 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. window on the first day of early voting in a county of roughly 1.3 million registered voters.

Day two is also already off to busy start.

“We continue to break previous records regarding voter turnout at Bexar County Elections polls,” Callanen said in a statement Tuesday morning. “This morning, we had 6,000-plus [voters] in the first hour open.”

The elections department already had reason to suspect local voters were fired up about the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, as voter registration numbers soared close to deadline earlier this month.

Bexar had higher Day One turnout in 2016 than it did in 2020. That’s a little weird, but that’s how it goes sometimes. I’ll be sticking with the averages versus the daily numbers for Harris County.

UPDATE: And Tarrant County checks in.

Tarrant County voters were not deterred by long lines at local polling sites throughout the first day of early voting. This election, they said, is too important to ignore.

More than 58,400 residents cast their ballots for national, state and local races on Oct. 21 as the two-week early voting period started prior to the Nov. 5 election, according to counts released by the county’s elections office. That number represents a 38% increase over the first day of early voting in 2020 when 42,343 voters participated in-person.

So two up, two not up. Maybe some places started stronger in 2020, who knows. I’ll be watching.

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Hollins requests expansion of Whitmire’s investigation

I mean, it sure sounds reasonable.

Chris Hollins

Controller Chris Hollins penned a letter Tuesday to the Office of the Inspector General and City Council Ethics Committee calling on Mayor John Whitmire’s State of the City address to be included in “pay to play” ethics probe requested against him.

Whitmire asked for the investigation into Hollins after he solicited sponsorships for Tuesday’s City of Houston Investor Conference — Hollins’ first as controller.

In a Thursday news conference, Whitmire said banks called and told him the sponsorships gave the appearance of a “pay to play” system. Hollins fired back later in the day and called Whitmire a “walking conflict of interest,” saying the State of the City address featured plenty of sponsors with city contracts.

Whitmire wrote in a statement Tuesday that the investigation requested is “in response to (Hollins) soliciting $100,000 from vendors for a private meeting with him.” The mayor added that he did not solicit sponsorships for State of the City and that the “controller’s attempt to divert attention from the appearance of the pay to play is under investigation.”

“It is the practice of the mayor’s office not to comment on active investigations,” Whitmire wrote. “I did my job by bringing this to light.”

The letter obtained by the Chronicle states that the controller’s office used the same fundraising model the mayor used for the State of the City event. According to the letter, those similarities included:

  • Both events being marketed to city vendors
  • Both events selling sponsorships
  • Both featuring VIP receptions for those who gave large monetary contributions
  • Both using their respective official’s names and likenesses in marketing the events
  • Both providing respective visibility of both offices

The only difference in the events, Hollins wrote in his letter, was who controlled the proceeds. The mayor controls the money for the State of the City, he said, while funds from the Investor Conference went to BankOn Houston and an independent body.

“Bias has no place in public service,” Hollins wrote in a Tuesday statement. “What’s good for the goose is good for the gander. Let me be clear: I do not consider the marketing practices of either event to be unlawful. But I do believe the same set of rules should apply equally to both the mayor’s and controller’s fundraising activities.”

[…]

In addition to calling for an ethics probe, the mayor also called for all city employees to stay away from the conference, and even suggested it should be canceled.

The conference ultimately went on as planned, but did not include speakers from the city beyond those with the controller’s office.

See here for the background. This is good politics, though not without risk, as the OIG may conclude Hollins’ event was problematic while the State of the City as constituted is fine. It sure looks like a lot of similarity to me, at least on the surface, but we’ll see what the OIG says. I assume Mayor Whitmire either expected this or correctly concluded there was no non-whiny way to gripe about it when it happened. I will note again it is well within his power to put forth an ordinance that addresses this issue in whatever way he sees fit. The Houston Landing has more.

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Not so fast on Whitmire’s Montrose Boulevard revisions

Nice. Probably fleeting, but still nice.

After months of delays, the controversial redesign of Montrose Boulevard was still in limbo Monday night when a split vote at a contentious public meeting stalled the project yet again.

The Whitmire administration favors a design that would preserve more of the existing trees on the major thoroughfare, but reduce space for pedestrians and bicyclists. The engineering firm handling the proposal for the mayor’s vision pitched a 60-day work plan to revise the project’s first phase — stretching from Buffalo Bayou to West Clay Street — at a public meeting Monday held by the Montrose Tax Increment Reinvestment Zone, which spearheaded the project.

“We’re going to be hitting this very hard,” Muhammad Ali of Gauge Engineering said at the meeting, where Montrose TIRZ board members and residents first learned about the changes.

Following a heated public comment period, the Montrose TIRZ board members surprised attendees with a split vote on whether to pay Gauge to develop the plan aligned with new city priorities, stalling the project.

One member who voted against the funding was among several recent appointments to the board by Mayor John Whitmire’s team.

Ali said his firm had begun the revised project pitch after it “received direction from the city on the path forward.”

The Whitmire administration’s three priorities were to improve drainage in the area, to preserve as many trees as possible, and to resurface the roadway, he said. Block by block, Ali showed how the new priorities would largely preserve the current street and sidewalk configuration.

Drainage improvements were already featured in previous plans for the boulevard overhaul, first drafted by the Montrose TIRZ in 2022. But under the new plan, tree and roadway preservation priorities replaced the previous goals: Adding more space for pedestrians and bicyclists while reducing the size of the road’s lanes and removing more of the existing trees on either side of the roadway.

Local city council member Abbie Kamin had been disappointed at city pushback over the TIRZ-led plan since Whitmire took office Jan. 1, but said at this point “the neighborhood needs a resolution,” and that improved drainage and safety were key.

[…]

Many spoke with disappointment at Monday’s meeting, failing to see much compromise in the city’s new ultimatum.

“I’m seeing safe crossings eliminated. I’m seeing designs that encourage speeding. I’m seeing pedestrian and bicycle facilities scaled back to appease folks who have deep anxiety about change in their neighborhood, and I think it’s just heartbreaking. It’s overriding the public input process,” said Alex Spike, a Montrose resident who moved to the neighborhood in 2008 when he was in the fifth grade.

Before voting, the board members who rejected funding a new plan to meet city specifications echoed similar concerns.

Abby Noebels, a member of the TIRZ since 2021, said she was worried about the rushed changes and the scaled-back focus on safety. Robert Guthart, the new TIRZ vice-chair appointed under Whitmire, said he found “the design changes that are coming from city hall disappointing and not forward-thinking.”

See here, here, and here for the background. You don’t have to convince me that this administration and its minions lack vision, but I’m still happy to hear it being said. All that said, I have the feeling that this was a bump in the road, and that after “further consideration” some new “compromise” plan that is 95% or more of the Mayor’s plan will be approved. I could be wrong, and if nothing else the folks who got this delayed have a victory they can build on. I wish them well. There’s some good commentary on Twitter if you want more, from Mighty Lizard King, HTX Valeria, Bike Houston, Robin Holzer, and more.

Posted in Planes, Trains, and Automobiles | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Texas blog roundup for the week of October 21

The Texas Progressive Alliance is going to be bugging you about whether you’ve voted yet for the next two weeks as it brings you this week’s roundup.

Continue reading

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November 2024 early voting Day One: Where are the mail ballots?

As I said yesterday, the Day One early voting report came in a little too late on Monday night for me to queue this up for Tuesday. It’s also the case that comparing this year to 2020 is not going to work, as there was an extra week of early voting in 2020 due to COVID, but it started on Tuesday because of the Indigenous Peoples Day holiday. As such, while we can define “Day One” easily enough for comparison purposes, it gets out of whack after that. I suppose that’s tomorrow’s problem for me now. So let’s take a look at what we have right now and figure it out from there. Here are the EV reports, Day One for 2024 and final reports otherwise:

2024

2020

2016


Year     Mail    Early    Total
===============================
2024   27,027  125,472  152,499
2020   41,337  128,082  169,419
2016   61,543   67,471  129,014

2016 was a fairly normal year as far as early voting went, though Day One was the slowest non-Sunday day for in person voting of the entire period. The daily in person totals were pretty steady with a modest uptick on the last day. 2020 was huge for the first (four-day) week, then settled in at a lower level the rest of the way, with no real “last day” surge. It’s too soon to say what 2024 will be like, but I expect the shape to be more like 2016.

What really stands out to me is the mail ballots. Not just the total number returned – again, 2020 was weird – but in terms of their potential. The daily reports also say how many total mail ballots have been sent out, so you can see what the potential total for them could be. Here are the “ballots mailed out” totals for these elections:

2024 – 71,242
2020 – 238,062
2016 – 129,014

Throw out the 2020 number for a minute, we know that was inflated by then-County Clerk Chris Hollins sending mail ballots to everyone who was eligible to receive one. The total number of mail ballots sent out this year is barely more than the number returned on Day One of 2016. It’s not much more than half of the total sent out in 2016. That’s a huge dropoff, and not what I was expecting. We know how much Donald Trump has poisoned the well of mail ballots for Republicans (certain parts of North Carolina excepted), but this seems like a low-ish number even for just Democrats. It may well be that more people are planning to vote in person this year. I don’t have a good explanation beyond that. I’ll keep an eye on it – there may yet be a lot more ballots to be mailed out.

Anyway, that’s what stands out to me at this time. Just to add a bit of reading to this post, I liked the Houston Landing’s Day One coverage of early voting. And this Trib story about an incumbent Republican State Rep. who basically hired four children to be in a campaign ad for her as her “family” is one of those where all you can do is chuckle and shake your head.

Let me know what you think. Have you voted yet?

UPDATE: Don’t fall for disinformation.

With the early voting period underway in Texas, election disinformation is making the rounds, including a misleading message that has resurfaced from previous years.

Houstonians have reported receiving a text message that cautions voters to check for markings on their ballots to prevent their votes from being invalidated, the Harris County Democratic Party said. The same text went out during the 2020 presidential election, according to PolitiFact.

The message appears to come from someone qualified to give election advice: “Just finished Poll Manager training! I passed all the classes.” It goes on to warn voters to check their ballots for “a letter, a checkmark, a star, an R or a D any writing of any kind” because the “ballot could be disqualified if it is written on.”

The text message should be disregarded, Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth’s office said.

The Texas election code requires ballots to be marked with Hudspeth’s initials during the early voting period or the polling location presiding judge’s initials on Election Day, Hudspeth said in a statement on Monday.

“I assure voters that either my initials or the presiding judge’s signature is required by the Texas Election Code. Any claims to the contrary are misleading, false and reckless,” Hudspeth said.

I can’t stop anyone from believing whatever they want, but if I were you I’d listen to Teneshia Hudspeth and not this random text from an unknown number and a total stranger. Other states have their own problems to deal with.

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

Where is Ann Harris Bennett?

Not at the office.

Ann Harris Bennett

The elected official in charge of Harris County’s voter registration and tax collection appears to have been absent from her office for years, last swiping her ID to enter the county building in late 2020, county records show.

First sworn into office in 2017, Tax Assessor-Collector Ann Harris Bennett is tasked with a wide array of duties that affect nearly every Harris County resident, from collecting billions of dollars in property taxes to processing millions of vehicle registrations and title transfers every year. As the county’s voter registrar, she also oversees voter registration and maintains records for over 2.5 million voters.

In October 2023, Bennett announced that she would not seek a third term, citing a desire to focus on her family and health. The retiring official, however, still needs to lead her office in fulfilling its election duties through this year’s high-stakes presidential election cycle, including assisting voters with any registration issues that may arise.

Her prolonged absence from public view raises questions about what she has done since she was reelected in 2020, when she appears to have stopped showing up at the office. She has also hardly corresponded via email and missed a string of key public appearances last year while state Republican leaders targeted Harris County’s election process.

[…]

Last year, the state Legislature took unprecedented steps to change Harris County’s election procedures, abolishing the elections administrator’s post and returning voter registration tasks to the tax assessor-collector’s office. Bennett was not seen during that time, while the other affected elected official, County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth, offered guidance to county leaders and the public.

Annette Ramirez, the Democratic candidate vying to become the next tax assessor-collector, said Bennett should have done more to improve internal processes and interact with the public to ensure “we don’t give Austin an opportunity to say that we haven’t done a good job.”

“You, as a public elected official, are the face (of the office), and so you’ve got to show up. You’ve got to make sure that we are being transparent, communicating with the public…That’s the job,” Ramirez said, adding she would go to work every day if elected.

Steve Radack, the Republican candidate in this year’s tax assessor-collector’s race, spoke in Bennett’s defense. He said every manager has a different style, and over the years, he has also seen other government officials who do not always show up to work.

At the same time, Radack vowed to be responsive to constituents and to actively champion the policies he believes in if elected.

“My presence will be known,” he said.

For what it’s worth, I interviewed her in January 2020, as she was in a contested primary. She was still making occasional trips into the office at that time. My best guess here, and this is just my own guess, is that there’s a health issue at the root of this. Among other things that might explain why there’s no explanation being proffered, as people don’t want to speak out of turn if Bennett herself hasn’t said anything publicly. Again, that is all 100% my speculation. Maybe we’ll know more some day, maybe we won’t.

The good news is that the staff at her office are doing a good job – no one raised any complaints in this article, and I’m not aware of any recent news about issues there, though as noted there were some before 2020, in her first term. I’ve heard some grumbles about her office not doing more about voter registration – that was a subject I explored in this year’s interviews with the primary candidates – but that was about how extensive and energetic the outreach was, not about how the nuts and bolts were being done. It’s a little weird that this question is coming up now, as her term nears its end, but one way or another we’ll have a clear point of comparison soon enough.

Posted in Local politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 13 Comments

Sugar Land partners with Swyft Cities

We may get some local gondola action in the near future.

Look up in the sky, it’s a bird, it’s a plane, no, it’s a gondola? Or it will be if the city of Sugar Land can get a federal grant to study bringing in an elevated rail and cable system and then the additional funds to actually build it.

City planners and leaders hope to install a system that would enable residents and visitors to leap over the city’s most congested areas, for example where highways 6 and 59 meet, which happens to hold the record for the most crashes. The system would connect prime locations such as Sugar Land Town Square and Smart Financial Centre. Planners are looking ahead to connecting up with say the Methodist Hospital System and the expansion of the University of Houston Sugar Land campus.

This would be the first such system in the country, according to Sugar Land leaders, and would accompany what they say is a determination to develop innovative approaches to transportation and other services for residents. “We like to be pioneering,” says Melanie Beaman, the city’s transportation and mobility manager.

Over the past three years, the city of Sugar Land has been busy surveying residents and what it discovered is that the No. 1 priority for many of them was an alternative way of getting around town. Besides more walking and biking connections, Beaman says what residents said they wanted were more transit options. What they want is public transit that works.

“Fifty nine percent of residents say it’s difficult to get around with existing public transit. So they basically give what we have now an F.” she says. And while many Texans have a well-known love for automobiles, that doesn’t extend to everyone, she says.

“Just because you drive a vehicle doesn’t mean that everyone else does, Not everyone can afford it. Not everybody can physically do it. Thirty percent of the population doesn’t even have a driver’s license,” Beaman points out.

The city has partnered with a firm called Swyft Cities which initially began planning for elevated transport for Google and its employees. When Google decided not to go forward with the project, the group that had been working on the plan split off and formed its own company: Swyft Cities.

Sugar Land has applied to the Houston Galveston Area Council for federal funding, Beamon estimates the cost of the engineering study at $12 million, pointing out quickly that the cost of adding a freeway lane can run to $300 million “and nobody blinks an eye.”

According to an FAQ on the city’s website, the elevated rail and cable system would not be taxpayer supported, but would depend on partnerships with the private sector as well as, they hope, state and federal funding. The gondolas would be autonomous; no one would be driving them. The idea would be people could go to one of the gondola launch locations and using an app on their phone, pay their fare, jump aboard and go directly to their desired destination with no stops along the way. Most of these gondola stations would be on city-owned property.

[…]

Besides the environmentally friendly aspects of the system which Beaman says tie into the city’s master plan to be “more sustainable, more environmentally friendly,” it would cost considerably less than adding another lane to the highways.

Also, the use of a fixed route bus system doesn’t work well in a suburban city like Sugar Land she says. “They’re big buses. They take up lanes. They move slow. You have to have enough population to sustain a service like that.”

But what the suburbs do have that many more urban centers do not, she says, is plenty of free parking, some of which could be used for the space needed to set up a gondola station. Beaman estimated each station would need the equivalent of about 18 adjacent parking spaces. “They have smaller ones that could fit into tighter areas like for example Sugar Land Town Square where we don’t have a lot of space, but we have plenty of parking spaces. Most of the traveling infrastructure where the cables and rails are is city-owned property.”

“We have plenty of parking that is totally underutilized. So our city is looking at how to redevelop these areas, whether you add some restaurants out there, more shopping, aero-gondola stations. There’s all kinds of things you can do with the space that’s more beneficial economically to the city.

“We want to redevelop some of these area like Lake Pointe. Well then, who wants to build a huge $80,000 parking garage when you can have a station there instead and utilize the parking that we already have? Why do we keep building these parking lots and wasting space and making no income for the city. And if people could move around more easily, park once and do all your traveling, eat lunch, meeting your friends, doing whatever, then you go back to your car and you go home.”

See here and here for more on Swyft Cities and their potential projects in North Texas. There’s an info page about this on the City of Sugar Land website. More details from Community Impact.

The engineering study, which began in 2023, is anticipated to finish this year, Sugar Land Communications Director Doug Adolph said in an email. It will assess the feasibility of crossing Hwy. 6 and Hwy. 59—both owned by the Texas Department of Transportation—and moving toward the Smart Financial Centre and Crown Festival Park.

“Most of the system has been planned on city-owned property and TxDOT has been shown the preliminary concept layout. They were very supportive and excited about the project,” Adolph said. “Stakeholders would be involved in the process as would the public who would have the opportunity to provide their input.”

[…]

This is the second autonomous project Sugar Land has considered this year, as city officials are also working with aircraft company Wisk Aero to bring an electric “air taxi service” to the city by 2030, city officials said.

“We will be relentless in looking for opportunities like this one to partner with state and federal funding sources to reduce the financial impact to our residents while also delivering mobility projects that support quality of life, economic development and tourism,” Goodrum said in the release about Swyft Cities.

See here for more on the Wisk Aero project. Gotta say, I’m just a wee bit jealous about how willing Sugar Land is to innovate while we’re over here killing or at least arbitrarily delaying much-needed transit projects. I’m going to mutter under my breath while shaking my fist in the general direction of City Hall and the Lee P. Brown building. If Sugar Land gets this thing built, I will absolutely make a trip out there to take a ride on their automated gondola. I promise I’ll post some photos when and if that happens.

UPDATE: Here’s the Chron story, from October 30. I’m adding this as an update and not a new post because there’s not much that’s different. This is the main bit of interest:

City officials will continue working with Swyft City to plan the potential route configurations, technical details, costs and other aspects of the project. The city met with Texas Department of Transportation officials about the project. Parts of the design that cross State Highway 6 and U.S. Highway 59/Interstate-69 must be reviewed and approved.

The study may be completed later this year, according to the release. The city estimates the project will include about 3-6 months of planning and design, 6-8 months of permitting and procurement and 6-12 months of construction and testing.

So they need some TxDOT approval, and the timeline is one to two years. We’ll keep an eye on that.

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Make that 18.6 million registered voters

That’s a lot.

Still the only voter ID anyone should need

Texas added nearly 200,000 voters to its rolls in the two weeks before the deadline to register, according to state data, giving the state a record-breaking 18.6 million voters going into this year’s election.

Since 2016, when Donald Trump first won Texas, the state has added 3.5 million voters — equal to the entire voting population of Wisconsin.

[…]

Even with more strictly policed voter registration rolls, Texas is still adding voters faster than its booming population growth. Since 2020, the state’s population has grown by about 1.6%, according to the U.S. Census. But the state’s voter rolls have grown almost 10% since that, according to the newest voter registration totals released by the Texas secretary of state’s office.

That growth is coming from a surge of younger voters turning 18, transplants from other states and more aggressive voter registration efforts by both partisan and non-partisan groups.

It’s all happened as Texas’ elections have become more competitive. In 2020, Trump carried Texas, but by just 5.6 percentage points — the closest race in Texas in almost 30 years and the ninth closest state presidential race in the country.

No county has seen a bigger jump in voter registrations since the last presidential election in 2020 than Harris County. More than 200,000 voters have been added to the roles since then. Bexar County was the second fastest growing with 106,000 added voters.

The previous report had us at 18.4 million, so this isn’t very different but it does include a Harris County number, which interests me. There were 2,431,457 RVs in Harris County in 2020, so we’re above 2.6 million now, possibly around 2.65 million. Just to throw a few more numbers at you, if we turn out at the same rate (68.14%) in Harris County as we did in 2020, that gets us to 1.8 million total votes. The HCDP’s stated goal of getting to 1.1 million votes for Kamala Harris looks pretty doable in that context – a reach, to be sure, but doable. We would probably need to have had at least 1.3 million votes cast at the end of early voting for that to be in range. When will you be casting your vote, if you haven’t already?

As a late note, as of 8:30 PM when I scheduled this for publication, we hadn’t gotten the daily EV record for Monday. We did get a tweet from the Harris County Clerk Elections Department that over 124.7K people had cast an in person ballot; that number may creep up a bit as the tweet came in at 7:05 and it’s possible there were still more votes being cast. Be that as it may and as impressive as it is, it’s not the record. On Day One in 2020, there were 128,082 in person votes cast. That was on October 13 of that year, a week early because of COVID and the extra week of early voting that we got. It was also a Tuesday, as the Monday had been Indigenous Peoples Day, so that adds to the difficulty in making a direct comparison. We also don’t have the mail ballot total yet – it was 41,337 on Day One in 2020. I’ll have a report tomorrow, and will likely be a day behind more often than not.

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Greg Abbott cares more about his own power than about human life

What else can one say about this?

Gov. Greg Abbott’s office condemned the actions of a bipartisan group of Texas legislators Monday, effectively breaking his silence in the pending execution of Robert Roberson.

In an amicus brief filed by James P. Sullivan, the governor’s general counsel, the governor’s office said lawmakers “stepped out of line” when they intervened to save Roberson’s life.

The brief argued the power to grant clemency in a capital case, including a 30-day reprieve, lies with the governor alone.

“Unless the Court rejects that tactic, it can be repeated in every capital case, effectively rewriting the Constitution to reassign a power given only to the Governor,” Sullivan argued.

The brief accounts for Abbott’s first public comments on the matter. The governor, who had the ability to grant Roberson a 30-day reprieve was silent last week as the unprecedented legal battle unfolded.

The Texas Supreme Court halted the execution of Roberson last week after members of the Texas House committee subpoenaed Roberson to testify in an attempt to save his life.

Roberson was convicted in 2003 in the death of his chronically ill 2-year-old daughter Nikki. Had he been executed last week, he would have been the first person to be executed based in a case related to shaken baby syndrome, a diagnosis that many experts and lawmakers say is no longer supported by scientific evidence.

Roberson has maintained his innocence for more than 20 years on death row.

I haven’t followed the Roberson case closely – you can follow the links above to learn more – but the bottom line is that he was convicted and condemned based on evidence that would not be accepted today. We can choose to value the process (“he got a fair trial and went through the appeals process, that’s how it goes”), or we can choose to value the outcome (“executing an innocent man is barbaric and a travesty”). Greg Abbott has made his choice. Let’s never forget that.

I will give Scott Braddock the last word:

I hope someday we get tired of being ruled by kings again. I hear that used to be something we all didn’t like. The Chron has more.

Posted in Crime and Punishment | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Fundraising for the HISD bond

I’ve been waiting for a story about the pro-bond campaign, and here one is.

For Roland Garcia, voting in favor of Houston ISD’s proposed $4.4 billion bond is a no-brainer.

Garcia, a grandparent of two students at Houston ISD’s Harvard Elementary, said he is “appalled” at the state of the infrastructure at their school. With nearly 12 years since HISD’s past bond, he said he’ll be voting “Yes” for Propositions A and B because the investment is long overdue and would create a healthier learning environment for children.

“This is personal to me,” Garcia said. “It’s important to me, and so I’m doing everything I can to promote the bonds because I think it’s undisputed that the schools need repairs. It’s now at a critical level, and so I’m happy to support the bond referendum.”

However, as public opposition to the bond grows, Garcia said he is concerned the measure may fail and is doing everything he can to convince his friends to donate to Houstonians for Safe and Healthy Schools, a political action committee aiming to convince voters to pass the bond during the upcoming November election.

As of Sept 26, the committee has raised more than $755,000 to advocate for the bond. The group has paid at least $39,300 of those funds to Putnam Partners, a D.C.-based communications firm, on advertising as of late September, according to its campaign finance report.

Veronica Garcia, the executive director of Houstonians for Great Public Schools, said she, along with Doug Foshee and Ramon Manning, founded the committee in early August — the same month that the appointed Houston ISD Board of Managers voted unanimously to place the measure on voter’s ballots.

“When school districts place a bond on the ballot, the district itself cannot campaign for the bond, and so it’s pretty standard that an organization is created to support the passage of the bond,” she said. “That’s why we started Houstonians for Safe and Healthy Schools: for the sole purpose of working to ensure that kids get their needs met through the bonds.”

The committee has shared campaign mailers, TV advertisements and other digital promotion efforts with the phrases like “Vote for Props A and B,” “Healthy Schools Now,” and “Our Kids Can’t Wait” with Houston residents. It also has volunteers, including HISD parents, block walking and texting potential Houston voters to encourage them to vote “Yes” on the bond, she said.

[…]

Despite the opposition, leaders of several prominent Houston organizations, including Children at Risk, the Houston Food Bank, Good Reason Houston, the Greater Houston Partnership and the Boys & Girls Clubs of Greater Houston, have come out in support of the measure, stating that they believe it would improve student well-being and success if passed.

“I was not in favor of a takeover, but if I really care about these kids and the future of HISD, do I just shut everything down?” said Manning, an HISD parent and committee secretary. “I’ve just been amazed at the level of vitriol towards Mike Miles on this particular issue, because for me, this ain’t about Mike Miles. … This is really about kids and trying to move this district forward.”

The committee has seen increased scrutiny after a flier promoting a private fundraiser Wednesday — with contribution levels ranging from $250 to $100,000 — circulated publicly. The host committee for the fundraiser included about 40 individuals and groups, including architecture firm HKS, engineering firm Stantec, Collaborate Architects and Satterfield & Pontikes Construction.

Melissa Yarborough, an HISD parent and former teacher, said she was enraged to see that construction and architecture firms were part of the group hosting a fundraiser for a committee supporting the bond. She organized a small group of community members to protest across from the fundraiser, where they held yard signs and a large knitted banner advocating against the bond.

“I have to imagine that these people are either naive and thinking that they’re really supporting schools … or they’re acting against the majority’s will and using their financial power to push what they want, and I think that that is sad either way,” Yarborough said. “Whichever one is true, they are raising money to go against the community’s wishes.”

Roland Garcia, who co-hosted the fundraiser, said he’s held several similar fundraising campaigns for other institutions that help maintain a high quality of life in Houston, like Houston Community College. He said he believes people attended Wednesday’s event not necessarily because of their jobs, but because they believe in funding a better education for Houston residents.

Just to note up front, I’ve known Roland Garcia for a long time – he was a big supporter of Annise Parker’s Mayoral campaign – and I’m acquainted with Houstonians for Great Public Schools, which has been around since at least 2017. Every HISD bond referendum has come with a well-financed campaign to help pass it. The main difference this year is that a lot of normal supporters of these bond issuances are opponents this time, because of Mike Miles. That’s one reason why the support from the construction industry stands out, because the usual stalwarts like Democratic politicians and associated groups, and organized labor, are not there. I don’t think it’s more complicated than that.

For what it’s worth, other than a few yard signs, which in my neighborhood are greatly outnumbered by anti-bond and anti-Mike Miles signs, I’ve not seen any evidence yet of the pro-bond campaign. I’ve not received any mail, I’ve not seen any ads on TV or the Internet, I’ve not seen any canvassers. I’m sure that’s all out there, but you know, tick tock tick tock. To Melissa Yarborough’s point, it’s too soon to say that what the bond campaign’s fundraisers are doing is against the community’s wishes. Let’s see how the vote goes first.

UPDATE: I wrote this on Saturday before the mail was delivered. When it arrived, it contained a pro-bond mailer, so now I can say that this campaign is visible to me. How about you?

Posted in Election 2024 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Interview with Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez

Sheriff Ed Gonzalez

We wrap up Fall 2024 Interview Season with the best known person of the series, two-term Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez. You know his story – 18-year HPD veteran who eventually served as a homicide investigator, three-term Houston City Council member in District H who served as the chair of the Public Safety & Homeland Security Committee and also as Mayor Pro Tem, elected to Sheriff in 2016. He was nominated by President Biden to be the head of ICE, but the Senate being the Senate he was not able to get a vote. He was the second leading vote-getter in Harris County in 2020, receiving 903K votes; Joe Biden got 918K, no one else got over 900K. He’s been an advocate for bail reform and mental health services, he’s pioneered a successful program that sends social workers instead of sheriff’s deputies to some non-violent 911 calls, and he’s still quite passionate about the job he’s doing. Here’s the interview:

And barring anything very unexpected, that’s a wrap on interviews. Now it’s time to go vote. You can still catch up on any conversation you may have missed below. Thanks for listening.

PREVIOUSLY:

Erica Lee Carter, CD18 special election
Sylvester Turner, CD18 general election
Lindsay London, Amarillo Reproductive Freedom Alliance
Plácido Gómez and Dani Hernandez, for the HISD bond
Ruth Kravetz of CVPE, against the HISD bond.
Katie Shumway, League of Women Voters Houston
Teneshia Hudspeth, Harris County Clerk
Katherine Culbert, Texas Railroad Commission
Rhonda Hart, CD14
Laurel Swift, HD121
Kristin Hook, CD21

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Judicial Q&A: Judge Elaine Palmer

(Note: As I have done in past elections, I am continuing the series of Q&As for judicial candidates in contested November elections. I am running these responses in the order that I receive them from the candidates. Much more information about Democratic candidates who are on the ballot in Harris County, including links to the interviews and judicial Q&As done for March and for November, can be found on Erik Manning’s spreadsheet.

Judge Elaine Palmer

1. Who are you and in which court do you preside?

My name is Elaine Palmer and I am the current presiding Judge, 215th Civil District Court, Harris County, Texas. I am a native Houstonian. I am a member of Trinity United Methodist Church. I am a Life long voting Democrat. I am a member of Sigma Gamma Rho Sorority, Incorporated. I am also the Democratic Nominee for Judge, 215th Civil District Court of Harris County, Texas.

2. What kind of cases does this court hear?

The 215th District Court handles Civil cases…Personal Injury, Contract Disputes, Employment Disputes, Construction Disputes, Business Disputes, Debtor Creditor Disputes, and Real Estate matters.

3. What have been your main accomplishments during your time on this bench?

One on my main accomplishments since taking the bench has been getting cases move to resolution either by bench or jury trials, the parties resolving the case by agreement after minimal court intervention thus allowing the parties to handle their case.

4. What do you hope to accomplish in your courtroom going forward?

I hope to continue allowing the parties to have a level playing field in the 215th District Court and to be treated with dignity and respect no matter how simple or complex their case may be. Also I hope to continue offering law students internships so as to continue to cultivate interest in civil litigation in the younger generation.

5. Why is this race important?

This race is so important because it touches everyone regardless of race, color, creed, religious beliefs or sexual orientation. I want to insure that ALL litigants, parties and attorneys are treated equally, with dignity and respect without regard to economic status.

6. Why should people vote for you in November?

I am asking your readers and supporters to support my re-election to the position of Judge, 215th District Court so that as I have stated before I want to insure that ALL litigants, parties and attorneys are treated equally, fairly, with dignity and respect without regard to their economic status, race, color, creed, religious beliefs or sexual orientation. The citizens of Harris County have supported me in the past and I am humbly asking for their vote and support again. Thank you!

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Paxton sues doctor for providing gender affirming care to teens

Nothing good will come of this.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has filed a lawsuit against a Dallas pediatrician, accusing her of violating state law by providing gender-transitioning treatments to at least 21 teenage patients.

Thursday’s filing is Paxton’s first attempt at suing a doctor by leveraging Senate Bill 14, a 2023 legislation that prohibits physicians and health care providers from prescribing hormones to minors to transition their biological sex.

The lawsuit accuses May Lau, an adolescent medicine physician and associate professor at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas, of violating Senate Bill 14 by prescribing testosterone to at least 21 patients between the ages of 14 and 17 to transition their biological gender or affirm their gender identity.

“Texas passed a law to protect children from these dangerous unscientific medical interventions that have irreversible and damaging effects,” Paxton said in a news release. “Doctors who continue to provide these harmful ‘gender transition’ drugs and treatments will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law.”

Calling her a “scofflaw” and a “radical gender activist,” Paxton also accused Lau of “falsifying medical records, prescriptions, and billing records” by inserting a puberty blocker device into a 15-year-old and billing the patient’s insurance for an endocrine disorder instead of the patient’s gender dysphoria. Paxton claims that Lau used a diagnostic billing code from false billing code fact sheets provided by Campaign for Southern Equality, an LGBTQ+ advocacy organization, saying Lau was trying to conceal that she was providing care in violation of state law.

Lau specializes in adolescent female and male sexual and reproductive health including gender dysphoria and has worked at UT Southwestern since 2008, according to the medical center’s website. Lau and UT Southwestern did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

SB 14, which the Texas Supreme Court upheld in June, commands the Texas Medical Board to revoke the license or other authorization to practice medicine from a physician who violates the law. In addition, Paxton is asking for $1 million, which includes civil penalties and to pay for other costs.

[…]

Andrea Segovia, policy director of Transgender Education Network of Texas, said Thursday’s lawsuit signals to providers that they might be sued for supplying treatment to transgender youth. She said some doctors have already stopped providing gender-affirming care because of the chilling effect of SB 14.

“This is another straw in the haystack,” said Segovia. “Adding to that ultimate goal of not providing the care people want in their state.”

I hate everything about this. Ken Paxton is a lying piece of shit, but at this moment he has the law on his side. Until SB14 is repealed by the Lege, overridden by Congress, or blocked by a court, he can and will weaponize it against doctors who are trying to help transgender youth. We’ll see what defense Dr. Lau puts forth – I’m sure there will be strong arguments made on her behalf – but I don’t have any good answers for this. It’s awful, it’s tragic, and it’s the reality we face.

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Weekend link dump for October 20

“The Foreign Troll Farms Never Went Away”.

I’m not sure I believe that no one wants to be in the new Harry Potter series because they don’t want to be associated with asshole transphobe JK Rowling, but I very much want to believe it.

This is indeed a clever strategy. I hope it works.

“After 100 years of speculation, remains of one of the first ever Brits to climb Mount Everest have been discovered by a group filming a Nat Geo feature including Oscar-winner Jimmy Chin.”

“For example, in Maine, when driving the logging roads looking for game, I cannot have a weapon loaded in my vehicle. If we spot a partridge, we must stop the vehicle, step outside of it, load, and then fire. The purpose of this regulation is, of course, to promote safety, a concept that is of utmost concern for hunters. But if you are carrying a gun for nonhunting purposes? Then it’s fine to have it loaded in your car. It’s literally written into the legislation on guns and vehicles in Maine. So if you want to shoot a deer, you have to be safe about it. If you want to shoot a person, throw caution to the wind.”

“In other words, your future, and the future of everyone you love, is partially contingent on the ornate booger comets in organic blizzards of the ocean. Godspeed.”

“‘Doctor Odyssey’ Succeeds Where ‘Grotesquerie’ Fails: The Ryan Murphy Paradox”.

“That could indicate that the liberals know this case is not going to go their way, so it’s better to hold off on granting cert and at least leaving the Idaho law blocked for however long it takes for that case to make it back, rather than having it decided this term and then losing the Idaho injunction too.”

The solar-powered spacecraft Europa Clipper, which will study one of Jupiter’s moons, launched Monday on a journey of more than six years, to see if maybe Europa can support life.

RIP, Lilly Ledbetter, icon of the fight for equal pay, namesake of the landmark legislation that gave workers the right to sue within 180 days of receiving each discrimination paycheck, not just the first one.

“A Georgia judge ruled Monday that certifying election results is a mandatory duty for county election officials.”

“Oregon coaches exploited a loophole in the rulebook and it could result in in-season action from the NCAA.”

“Chuy’s is relocating its headquarters from Austin to Orlando, Florida, now that its $605 million acquisition by Darden Restaurants Inc. has become final.” This makes them the Olive Garden of Tex-Mex now.

Best of luck to Jessica Campbell, the first woman to be a full-time assistant coach in NHL.

“Jimmy Carter Achieves His Goal, Lives Long Enough to Vote for Kamala Harris”.

“For every Big Mac, there’s a McDonald’s menu item that was lost to history“.

“The Tampa Bay Rays may be looking for a temporary home stadium, at least for the start of the 2025 MLB season. The Rays are facing such uncertainties because of the extensive damage caused to Tropicana Field by the recent Hurricane Milton.”

“Donald Trump deliberately withheld disaster aid to states he deemed politically hostile to him as president and will do so again unimpeded if he returns to the White House, several former Trump administration officials have warned.”

Two words: Goalie goal. Rarer than an unassisted triple play, and as much fun.

RIP, Liam Payne, former One Direction singer. Way too young, very sad.

RIP, Mitzi Gaynor, actor and dancer who starred in the movie adaptation of the musical South Pacific.

“The song ‘Hallelujah’ by Leonard Cohen has become an anthem dedicated to peace, love and acceptance of the truth. I’ve been supremely honored over the years to be connected with this ode to tolerance. Witnessing Trump and his supporters commune with this music last night was the height of blasphemy. Of course, I in no way condone this and was mortified, but the good in me hopes that perhaps in inhabiting and really listening to the lyrics of Cohen’s masterpiece, Donald Trump just might experience a hint of remorse over what he’s caused. I’m not holding my breath.”

“If you have a problem with X, you could be forced to take it up with Elon Musk’s favorite judge. Starting November 15, the platform’s terms of service will require all litigation to be filed in the Northern District of Texas. It just so happens that this is where Federal Judge Reed O’Connor, who has a financial stake in Musk’s car company, Tesla, hears cases.”

“While we were successful in marketing “The Apprentice,” we also did irreparable harm by creating the false image of Trump as a successful leader. I deeply regret that. And I regret that it has taken me so long to go public.”

“He’s barely strong enough to hold an umbrella… He’s got jugs. Big ones. Like Dolly Parton. And that little dance he does? Looks like he’s jacking off a pair of giraffes.”

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October 2024 campaign finance reports – Senate and Congress

We’re about to get into early voting, so you don’t need much of a preamble here. Just one final check-in on the finance reports for our Senatorial and Congressional candidates. The July 2024 reports for both are here, the April 2024 reports are here. The January reports for Senate are here, the October 2023 reports are here, the July 2023 reports here, and the April 2023 reports are here. The January reports for Congress are here, and the October 2023 reports are here. The earlier reports had both Senate and Congress, as the fields were small enough then to do them together.

Colin Allred – Senate

Sandeep Srivastava – CD03
John Love – CD06
Michelle Vallejo – CD15
Sheila Jackson Lee – CD18
Sylvester Turner – CD18
Erica Lee Carter – CD18
Kristin Hook – CD21
Sam Eppler – CD24
Melissa McDonough – CD38


Dist  Name             Raised      Spent    Loans    On Hand
============================================================
Sen   Allred       68,751,658 65,430,438        0  3,321,220

03    Srivastava      381,945    358,348  593,233     27,189
06    Love            121,061    111,798        0      9,915
15    Vallejo       1,968,008  1,795,092  100,000    184,633
18    Jackson Lee     552,256    903,443    4,896     17,722
18    Turner          170,501     86,341        0     84,159
18    Lee Carter       20,658        861    3,125     19,796
21    Hook            458,377    162,150      747    296,227
24    Eppler          921,564    832,077        0     89,486
38    McDonough       180,382    156,545  111,398     25,617

We’re well aware of Colin Allred’s fundraising prowess. I want to point out here that over the course of Q3, he spent about $38 million, which is a lot more than he had previously spent (about $27 million) in the entire cycle to that point. This is why you’re seeing so many Allred ads on the TV. I see a lot of Ted Cruz ads as well, but I’d say the mix is about 60-40 for Allred. It’s a lot for us, but imagine what it must be like in a swing state. Aye yi yi.

I’ve added in the reports for Sylvester Turner and Erica Lee Carter for CD18 just so we’d have a picture of them. Sheila Jackson Lee’s numbers didn’t change much since Q2 – at this point, whatever cash her account still has will get disbursed and that will be that. She didn’t die with a ton of money on hand, so there won’t be a drawn out process to deal with it.

Kudos to Sam Eppler for raising a million bucks (he should cross that threshold this month) and Kristin Hook for half a million, all more or less without much fanfare. As noted before, CD24 isn’t that far out from being a swing district – Eppler could make a case for it being on the long-range radar for the next couple of cycles. Hook has a longer way to go, but she’s put up a strong fight. Give her interview a listen if you haven’t already.

Not a whole lot else to say here. I do believe we have a shot in CD15, and it continues to be my hope that we can narrow some margins this year and thus increase the activity for 2026 and 2028. We’ll know soon enough.

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Early voting for the November 2024 election starts Monday

From the inbox:

Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth has announced that early voting for the November 5 General and Special Elections begins Monday, October 21, and ends Friday, November 1. During the early voting period, Harris County voters may cast their ballots at one of 88 vote centers.

“During this period, voters will have 144 total hours to exercise their right to vote early,” said Clerk Hudspeth. “Life can be unpredictable, and casting a ballot ahead of Election Day ensures that illness, work, or unexpected events will not keep citizens from voting.”

In Texas, early voting spans over a 12-day period, allowing citizens more time, including a weekend, to fit voting into their busy schedules. Voting early ensures voters have adequate time to vote and reduces congestion at the polls on Election Day.

Early Voting Hours

  • October 21–26                7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.
  • October 27 (Sunday)     12:00 p.m. – 7:00 p.m.
  • October 28–30                 7:00 a.m. – 8:00 p.m.
  • October 31                       7:00 a.m. – 9:00 p.m.
  • November 1                     7:00 a.m. – 7:00 p.m.
To ensure voters are well-prepared before voting, they can view, download, and print their personalized sample ballot and take it to the polls.

“Our office is committed to making voting in Harris County as accessible and secure as possible,” added Clerk Hudspeth. “Voters should take advantage of the early voting period and not wait until Election Day. However, if they decide to vote on Election Day, Tuesday, November 5, vote centers will be open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.”

Voting by Mail

The deadline to request a ballot by mail for the November 5 elections is Friday, October 25 (received, not postmarked). To be eligible to vote early by mail in Texas, a registered voter must:

  • be 65 years or older
  • be sick or disabled
  • be out of the county on election day and during the period for early voting by personal appearance
  • be expected to give birth within three weeks before or after Election Day or
  • be confined in jail but otherwise eligible.
For additional information, visit www.HarrisVotes.com. For the latest news and updates, follow @HarrisVotes on social media.

I’m not totally sure how I’m going to do the early vote tracking this year, as we had three weeks of early voting in 2020 thanks to COVID and Greg Abbott’s executive order. (I can’t imagine that ever happening again.) I tracked the early vote for all the Presidential contests going back to 2008 plus the Presidential-like 2018, so for the record, here are the final EV tallis from each of those years:

2020
2018
2016
2008 and 2012

I expect turnout to be high, I expect the early portion of it to be significant, though probably not at the 88% level of 2020, and I expect Democrats to do well in Harris County. Beyond that, we’ll see. Get used to me asking if you’ve voted yet.

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Crowdsourcing HISD exit interviews

This is one of those cool ideas that falls in the bucket of “it would be so much better if it weren’t needed in the first place”.

With little data available regarding why employees were quitting their jobs in the Houston ISD, a parent decided to do her own digging.

HISD parent Becky Seabrook said she observed a mismatch between what parents were experiencing, and the district reporting that the vast majority of teachers marked that they planned to return next academic year on its Intent to Return Survey. She also felt a disconnect between community conversations and the administration claiming that the educators leaving were not quality teachers.

Seabrook started a Google Forms survey for departing HISD employees to submit information including time employed in district, certification status, reason they left their position, time of departure, and the employee’s destination. Two free-response questions allowed the respondent to expand on any answers and on their experience in HISD. The first submissions came in May, she said.

“I wanted to go into it with an open mind and thinking maybe there’ll be some positive things — people that left because they were moving, or because they were retiring, or what not. But it was one after the other,” Seabrook said. “I don’t know how the district has any teachers left, to be honest. It’s a really toxic environment, based on the stories that these teachers are telling.”

Community members read some of these responses at the Oct. 10 board meeting. Some called this initiative an “exit interview” after an exchange between appointed board members and district leadership brought to light that there is no consistently administered exit interview for district employees. Board members at the September board meeting asked state-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles about exit interviews during a teacher workforce presentation. Miles turned to Chief Human Resources Officer Jessica Neyman, sitting with other district employees, and Neyman said exit interviews are conducted upon request.

It was unclear by Neyman’s response how employees were informed of the exit interview option, and it is unclear how many employees took exit interviews last academic year.

While Seabrook’s survey format is admittedly unscientific, it is painting a picture of why some employees left their jobs in HISD.

[…]

Seabrook said some common themes among responses included a stressful environment, that reforms did not reflect high quality education or best practices, and concerns with school leadership being replaced after speaking up. Some respondents wrote that district reforms were not in the best interest of students and felt like they were no longer able to support and protect students, she said.

A bit of disclosure up front, Becky Seabrook is a Facebook friend and former neighbor of mine. I smiled when I saw her name in this story. As I said up front, I think this was a good idea and I’m glad someone not only thought of it but followed through on it. We deserve to know this and we sure weren’t getting a straight answer from HISD. And that’s the second half of my opening statement, that it shouldn’t have come to this. HISD would want to know and would want us to know what it was going to do about it. Of course, in a better world we wouldn’t have had the need to track the reason for so many departures in the first place. But here we are. The data may not be ideal but it’s more than we were ever going to get. And that’s good to know.

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UH-Hobby Center polls Harris County

Pretty good. Could be better, but more or less in line with 2020 and current expectations.

With the start of early voting just days away, a new poll shows Harris County Democrats leading their Republican opponents in countywide races.

In the race for district attorney, Democrat Sean Teare holds a 14 percentage point lead over Republican Dan Simons among Harris County’s likely voters, with Teare leading Simons 52% to 38%, according to the latest poll released Friday from the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston. Another 10% of likely voters were undecided.

The online survey was conducted between Sept. 26 and Oct. 10, in English and Spanish, with 491 respondents who are registered to vote in Harris County. The margin of error was plus or minus 4.42%.

Incumbent Democratic Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez is favored by 53% of likely voters to Republican challenger Mike Knox’s 37%, with 10% undecided.

This year, voters will choose a new tax assessor-collector after Ann Harris Bennett, the incumbent Democrat, announced last year that she would not seek re-election. Democratic newcomer Annette Ramirez, a tax attorney for Aldine ISD, is running against Republican Steve Radack, who served as Precinct 3 Commissioner for over 30 years until he retired in 2020.

Ramirez leads with 50% of likely voters, while Radack trails with 38%. Another 12% were undecided.

Incumbent Democratic Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee is polling at 48%, ahead of challenger Republican Jacqueline Lucci Smith with 37%. In the race, 15% of likely voters are still undecided.

See here for the first set of poll results from the UH-Hobby Center, with statewide numbers. Their landing page is here, the media release for this poll is here, and the full polling memo is here. I’m going to quote from that to give their full slate of numbers.

In the 2024 Harris County Sheriff election, Democrat Ed Gonzalez (53%) leads Republican Mike Knox (37%) by a 16 percentage point margin, with 10% undecided.

In the 2024 Harris County District Attorney election, Democrat Sean Teare (52%) leads Republican Dan Simons (38%) by a 14 percentage point margin, with 10% undecided.

In the 2024 Harris County Tax Assessor-Collector election, Democrat Annette Ramirez (50%) leads Republican Steve Radack (38%) by a 12 percentage point margin, with 12% undecided.

In the 2024 County Attorney election in Harris County, Democrat Christian Menefee (48%) leads Republican Jacqueline Lucci Smith (37%) by an 11 percentage point margin, with 15% undecided.

[…]

Among Harris County likely voters, in the 2024 presidential race Democrat Kamala Harris (54%) leads Republican Donald Trump (41%) by a 13 percentage point margin, with 2% supporting third party candidates and 3% undecided.

Among Harris County likely voters, in the 2024 Texas U.S. Senate race Democrat Colin Allred (52%) leads Republican Ted Cruz (39%) by a 13 percentage point margin, with 2% supporting Libertarian Ted Brown and 7% undecided.

51% of Harris County likely voters intend to vote for the Harris County Flood Control District’s Proposition A, while 30% intend to vote against the proposition, with 19% undecided.

I’m most interested in the Presidential and Senate numbers, since everything else flows from there. In 2020, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by a margin of 55.96% to 42.70%, with 1.34% going to third party candidates. That’s a 13-point lead for Biden, basically dead on with what Kamala Harris has in this poll. Colin Allred leads Ted Cruz by the same 13 points, which is a big improvement over MJ Hegar’s 8.5 point win over John Cornyn in 2020.

With Harris’ lead over Trump being basically identical to Biden’s actual margin in 2020, the poll of Harris County is consistent with their statewide poll, in which Trump leads Harris by five after beating Biden by five and a half in 2020. I think the potential is there for Harris to do better and get a bigger margin in Harris County, something more like the 16-point lead that Ed Gonzalez has in the Sheriff’s race. That would affect the statewide race a bit, not enough to close the gap but enough to suggest that similar improvement elsewhere and thus overall is possible.

This poll also echoes the recent one we saw from Bexar County, in which Harris had a 19-point lead, a point better than the 18-point win Biden had there in 2020. Again, what this suggests, with the usual caveats about single poll results, is that Kamala Harris is in line to do about as well as Biden did in 2020, with some potential for improvement. We’ve definitely been in worse positions than that.

This obviously bodes well for the Democratic countywide judicial candidates, and at least puts the six Court of Appeals candidates in position to win. Running up the score in Harris County is the key there, but carrying Fort Bend County and keeping the losses to a minimum in the likes of Galveston and Brazoria as well as the smaller counties would also help.

I continue to hope they will do some polling on the HISD referenda, and I expect there to be more Texas polling soon. We’ll hope for more encouraging numbers.

UPDATE: Not worth a full post, but I wanted to give this a mention.

The latest poll by a group whose September survey put U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz behind U.S. Rep. Colin Allred is still showing razor-thin margins in the race for Senate, but this time it’s Cruz who is ahead.

The new poll by Morning Consult from October has Cruz leading his Democratic opponent by 1 percentage point. The survey of 2,048 likely Texas voters was conducted on Oct. 6-15. There is a margin of error of 2 percentage points.

The poll predicts Cruz winning 46% of votes and Allred winning 45%. Seven percent of those surveyed said they don’t know who they are voting for or don’t have an opinion. Two percent said they planned to vote for someone else.

The October poll follows Morning Consult’s September version that had Allred up by one point, also with a two percentage point margin of error. The poll was the first putting the Dallas congressman in the lead over the two-term Republican, according to Allred’s campaign and a compilation of polls from 538.

The Morning Consult polls show closer margins than most, with Cruz predicted to finish 3.7 points ahead of Allred on average, according to 538.

Another poll released Friday Oct. 18 from The Texas Politics Project at The University of Texas at Austin puts Cruz ahead by seven points, winning 51% of votes among likely voters to Allred’s 44% and Libertarian Ted Brown’s 4%. The poll of 1,091 likely Texas voters taken between Oct. 2-10 has a 2.97 percentage point margin of error.

[…]

The Morning Consult poll puts Trump up by four percentage points in Texas. The Texas Politics Project has the Trump-Vance campaign up by five percentage points.

A fairly wide range of results between those two, but neither are out of line with the overall set. It is what it is.

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The 2027 Mayor’s race is officially underway

I think that’s the lens that one must use when looking at this.

Mayor John Whitmire

Mayor John Whitmire and City Controller Chris Hollins traded barbs in dueling press conferences Thursday, each alleging the other has conflicts of interest by providing special access to private companies looking to do business with the city.

Whitmire called on city employees and event sponsors not to attend the controller’s annual Investor Conference next week. The proceeds from the sponsorships go to the nonprofit Houston Forward, which then funds and supports the banking equity program Bank on Houston. Whitmire said regardless of the group’s mission, the event sponsorship benefits, including a private dinner with Hollins and event advertising, promoted a “pay-to-play” system.

Whitmire said this is the first time the specific sponsorships have been offered by the controller’s office, but city events are regularly financially supported by corporations – including the mayor’s state of the city address last month.

The mayor said he learned about the sponsorship two weeks ago but did not contact Hollins. Instead, Whitmire called Thursday’s press conference in order to make it “a transparent issue.”

Whitmire said his concerns centered on the potential for preferential treatment and perceived disadvantages for companies that did not buy sponsorships, which ranged from $10,000 to $100,000.

Hollins defended the mission of the sponsorships, to support the longheld controller initiative Bank on Houston. He said it was not a conflict because he does not approve city contracts, City Council does. The city controller acts as a financial watchdog for the city, separate from the finance department in the mayor’s office.

The controller and the mayor sit on a finance selection committee, but both send office staff to the meetings.

Nancy Sims, a University of Houston political analyst with specialty in Houston politics, said elected officials are regularly asked to attend private dinners or events in the name of charity.

Sims said a primary question would likely be: Did Hollins personally benefit from the sponsorships?

State of the City had a VIP reception. The Freedom Over Texas (event) has a VIP reception,” Sims said. “It’s not uncommon for your large donors to gain private access.”

Whitmire called on the Houston Office of Inspector General to investigate whether the sponsorships violated the city’s ethics policies.

Okay then. The Chron adds on.

Chris Hollins

Mayor John Whitmire said he has initiated an ethics investigation into Controller Chris Hollins’ decision to solicit sponsorships for a financial conference the controller’s office is hosting next week, questioning whether the practice is an example of “pay to play.”

The Houston Annual Investor Conference is now in its ninth year, but Tuesday’s event – Hollins’ first as city controller – is the first for which sponsorships have been sought, Whitmire wrote in a letter, dated Thursday, to conference participants.

A pamphlet on the conference website lists sponsorships from $10,000 up to $100,000, with increasing perks for top donors.

The conference homepage shows Loop Capital, an investment bank, gave $50,000 to become a “platinum sponsor,” securing the firm a list of promotional opportunities at the conference. A “platinum” sponsorship also secured donors a “private dinner with the controller” in an earlier version of the sponsorship pamphlet Whitmire distributed at his Thursday press conference.

That perk is no longer listed as available for “platinum” sponsors, only for $100,000 “title” sponsors. No firms are listed as contributing at that level.

A local representative with Loop Capital directed questions to its corporate office, which could not be reached. Hollins, in a press conference Thursday afternoon, said that he viewed the proposed dinner as a nice gesture that might encourage firms to make a “meaningful” charitable contribution. Any financial institution that has asked for a meeting during his tenure, he added, has gotten one. A spokesman for his office said the change to the sponsorship packet was to fix a typo.

Three companies gave $25,000 to become “gold” sponsors, and nine people or firms contributed at the $10,000 “silver” level, including Hollins and his wife.

Whitmire said at a Thursday morning press conference he called on the topic that he started getting calls from banks that received the sponsorship packet two weeks ago.

“They said it was the appearance of pay to play, and they were seeking advice,” he said. “‘If we don’t contribute at the level of our competitors, can we still get city business? If we don’t, what are the repercussions for keeping city business?’”

Whitmire said he has asked the city’s Office of Inspector General to look into whether any city ordinances had been violated by the sponsorship solicitation. He said he won’t attend the Tuesday conference at the Hilton Americas-Houston and called on Hollins to cancel it.

“It really doesn’t need much explanation,” he said, “other than it needs to stop. It needs to be exposed.”

[…]

The packet now online specifies that sponsorship proceeds will benefit the Houston Forward Fund, which the conference website says is affiliated with the Greater Houston Community Foundation.

Among the programs associated with that fund is Bank On Houston, an effort to improve financial literacy among low-income residents that was started by the National League of Cities and with which the controller’s office has long been involved.

Expanding the program was among Hollins’ campaign pledges when he ran for the controller’s office last year. In his remarks Thursday, he reiterated that goal and stressed the controller’s office’s 16 years of work with the program.

Whitmire alleged that Hollins controls the nonprofit fund’s spending. His staff provided a screenshot showing that the fund’s mailing address on its website previously was listed as the controller’s 8th floor office at City Hall. The address now is listed as the Greater Houston Community Foundation office. A foundation spokesperson directed questions to the mayor and controller.

“I’m certain Houston Forward Fund does good charitable work,” Whitmire said, “but the controller does have the influence of where those funds are spent.”

Hollins on Thursday said the nonprofit’s board, not him, decides its spending.

Hollins also has a thread on Twitter that makes some further arguments. A few observations here:

– I’ve thought Hollins and Whitmire were on a collision course from the get-go. Most of the conflict between them before now was more conventional Mayor-versus-Controller stuff, but this is as overt as it gets.

– Mayor Whitmire says he heard about this two weeks ago, including those concerns that he says came to him, but as the story notes did not contact Hollins. I dunno, man, a call to ask “wtf, dude?” seems in order to me.

– As is often the case, the underlying question here is whether this is one of those situations where what is perfectly legal also looks sketchy because of the money involved. I don’t know the law well enough to say, but I’m sure we’ll hear plenty of opinions about it.

– Along those lines, whether something like this is illegal, in a perhaps not sufficiently well-defined way, or if it’s fully in bounds but looks bad, the Mayor is free to craft an ordinance that addresses it. I’ll be very interested to see if one is forthcoming.

– The Inspector General is appointed by the Mayor, while the IG and the Office of the IG report to the City Attorney. Like other city department heads, though, the IG may last from one administration to another. The current IG is Robin Curtis and as far as I can tell that person has been in place since at least 2016 (couldn’t find a LinkedIn profile for them), probably farther back than that. Mayor Whitmire plans to beef up the OIG and broaden its scope. I’ve not paid that much attention to the OIG – indeed, I had no idea who it was before I started writing this – so this is all for context. We’ll need to keep all this in mind when they issue a report.

– Beyond all that, whatever happens here I think is going to be filtered through the “Whitmire versus Hollins” lens, with supporters for each lining up accordingly. That’s going to make things a little awkward at City Hall for the next three years, I suspect. Campos has more.

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