Tag Archives: CD32

Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading

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The Beto-Abbott voters

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading

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Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading

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CD32 “live poll”: Sessions 48, Allred 47

Another on of these polls, another close result. Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions and Democratic challenger Colin Allred are in a dead heat in the much-anticipated race for Dallas County’s 32nd Congressional District. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll … Continue reading

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Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading

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CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading

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Crosstab versus 538

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading

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CD32 poll: Sessions 47, Allred 45

Another internal poll, another close race. Texas Rep. Pete Sessions’ re-election race is looking increasingly competitive, with Democrat Colin Allred polling close to the longtime Republican lawmaker, according to a new internal Democratic survey. The Dallas-area 32nd District is traditionally … Continue reading

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Trump’s Texas beneficiaries

Interesting. Six Texas Republican in Congress received a show of financial support from their party’s leader this week. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign announced Thursday that it was donating the maximum contribution possible to around 100 House and Senate Republican … Continue reading

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The meta-campaign for Senate

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading

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Stalking Sessions

It sure would be sweet to beat Pete. The man who engineered the 2010 Republican takeover of the House is racing to save himself in his own election this year — and he admits, in so many words, that President … Continue reading

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading

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Dems keep posting very strong finance reports

Wow. There are few bigger warning signs for a member of Congress that their re-election may be in doubt than when a challenger outraises them. In Texas, it just happened to seven incumbents, all Republicans. Since last week, when U.S. … Continue reading

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Monday “day before reports start showing up” campaign finance roundup

Good things keep happening to MJ Hegar. EMILY’s List, a powerful organization that backs female Democratic candidates who support abortion rights, is putting its support behind Hegar, an Air Force veteran who has shot to national prominence in recent weeks … Continue reading

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We are going to get some Congressional polling soon

Nate Cohn on Twitter: Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of … Continue reading

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What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading

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Three more Dems top $1 million in Q2

In the morning there was Gina Ortiz Jones. Gina Ortiz Jones, the Democrat running against U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, raised more than $1.2 million over the last three months, a huge haul that far outpaces the fundraising by her … Continue reading

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading

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Pot versus Pete

I love this story. Marijuana reform activists have created a new super PAC aimed exclusively at defeating Texas Republican Rep. Pete Sessions, the House Rules Committee chairman who has blocked cannabis reform legislation from reaching the House floor. Marijuana Policy … Continue reading

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It’s all about the millennials

From Colin Allred: When Colin Allred, a 35-year-old former NFL linebacker-turned-congressional candidate, addressed two dozen student volunteers at a rooftop restaurant last week, he promised them that he knows millennials are more than avocado toast-eating social media obsessives. “People think … Continue reading

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The Republicans’ risk factors in 2018

The Cook Report’s Dave Wasserman comes up with a system for evaluating Republican Congressional incumbents who may have some trouble in their future. Armed with fresh FEC data, we have created a table listing seven “risk factors” to gauge Republican … Continue reading

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2018 primary runoff results: Congress and Legislature

All results are here. I began drafting this around 9:30 when there were still a bunch of precincts out, but with the exception of the tossup in CD25, all of the Congressional races were pretty clear by then: CD03: Lorie … Continue reading

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Runoff races, part 1: Congress

I looked at most of these races after the filing deadline here and here. Here’s a reminder about who’s still in. CD03 Lorie Burch – Finance report Sam Johnson – Finance report First round: Burch 49.61%, Johnson 28.68% Burch was … Continue reading

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April 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Here are the Q2 finance reports, here are the Q3 finance reports, here are the January 2018 finance reports, and here’s the FEC summary page for Democratic Congressional candidates in Texas. Let’s get to it. Todd Litton – CD02 Lori … Continue reading

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An article about Congressional race in Texas that doesn’t mention CD07

Who knew that was even legal? Several of the most truly competitive House races in the country are in Texas, which could wind up providing Democrats three or more of the 24 flipped seats that they need for control of … Continue reading

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The DCCC elsewhere in Texas

I’m OK with this. The U.S. House Democratic campaign arm may well be at war with another Texas Democrat. Lillian Salerno, a Democratic House candidate in the Dallas-based 32nd Congressional District, pushed out a fiery news release on Thursday afternoon … Continue reading

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2018 primary results: Congress

Statewide Dem totals Statewide GOP totals Harris County Dem totals Harris County GOP totals (Please note that all results were coming in very slowly. I expect there will still be some precincts not yet reported by the time this publishes. … Continue reading

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Shared fundraising

I like this. Seven Democrats facing off in a single Texas congressional primary have an odd way of fighting it out. On Tuesday, they plan to put aside their differences and fundraise, together. That’s because the money they raise will … Continue reading

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January 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Here are the Q2 finance reports, here are the Q3 finance reports, and here’s the FEC summary page for Democratic Congressional candidates in Texas. The Trib summarizes some of the highlights. For many Texas congressional races, Wednesday was the most … Continue reading

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How many more women are we likely to have in Congress next year?

Probably at least two, and more are possible. No freshman woman has come to Congress from Texas since Granger’s election 1996, with the exception of former U.S. Rep. Shelley Sekula Gibbs, who served as a placeholder for less than two … Continue reading

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Dallas Observer Q&A with CD32 candidate Lillian Salerno

Once more to the Dallas Observer’s Q&A machine. Earlier this month, you spoke at an anti-monopoly conference in Washington about your experiences in the health care industry. Why is it so hard for innovative products to get into the health … Continue reading

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