Tag Archives: Election 2012

Why North Texas?

Posted on April 5, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib reprints a WaPo story about a cluster of Capitol insurrectionists in the Dallas suburbs, and it’s something. Hope for Trump’s return is fervent in Frisco and across the northern Dallas suburbs, an area of rapid growth and rapidly increasing diversity. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State Senate comparisons

Posted on March 29, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading →

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Rep. Vela not running for re-election

Posted on March 23, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

We have our first interesting Congressional race of 2022. U.S. Rep. Filemon Vela, a Brownsville Democrat, announced Monday he is retiring from Congress at the end of this term. Vela was first elected in 2012 and represents much of the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

Posted on March 8, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading →

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We’re not going to be able to have our primaries in March

Posted on February 14, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

That’s the obvious conclusion from this. Texas lawmakers will almost certainly be back for a rare special legislative session in the fall now that the U.S. Census Bureau has set a September deadline for releasing the 2020 census results. Facing … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Fort Bend County, part 1

Posted on February 1, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE I’ve … Continue reading →

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It’ll be awhile before redistricting happens

Posted on January 31, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

They’re waiting on Census data. The U.S. Census Bureau has again pushed back the release of the 2020 census results — a delay that will almost certainly force Texas lawmakers into legislative overtime this summer to redraw the state’s political … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Presidential results by Congressional district

Posted on January 18, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

From Daily Kos Elections, the breakdown of how Presidential voting went in each of Texas’ 36 Congressional districts: Two districts did in fact flip on the presidential level: Trump lost the 24th District in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs while recapturing … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Appellate courts, part 1

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Other jurisdictions

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Posted on December 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading →

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2020 precinct analysis: Introduction and overview

Posted on December 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So I finally got a full canvass of the 2020 election in a nice and convenient spreadsheet form. I spent a fair amount of the Thanksgiving week doing what I usually do with it, to generate totals for all of … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part seven: West Texas

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas Part 6 – Central Texas Last entry in this series, and … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part six: Central Texas

Posted on December 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas We move on now to counties in Central Texas, which for … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part five: East Texas

Posted on December 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar The next three entries in this series will look at regions, and counties of interest within … Continue reading →

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So now we start to prep for redistricting

Posted on November 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s gonna make for a long session, or more likely sessions. Wielding the map-drawing power will not be entirely painless for Republicans, who have seen their grip on dozens of state and federal districts erode since the last round of … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part four: Around Bexar

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Pop quiz, hotshot: Close your eyes, or cover the table below, and name for me the seven counties that border Bexar. Go … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part three: Around Travis

Posted on November 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Travis County has been at the forefront of the Democratic renaissance in Texas, punching well above its weight with both performance and turnout. Its blue essence has been … Continue reading →

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Beware color-coded county maps

Posted on November 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I spotted this on Twitter the other day and it got me thinking: . Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama’s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He’ll exceed it soon. They won by … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post. County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift ========================================================================= Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 … Continue reading →

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Counties of interest, part one: Around Harris

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been so much focus in the past couple of years about the suburbs and how their traditional voting patterns have changed. I wanted to use the election results we have to take a closer look at what that means. … Continue reading →

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A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

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The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

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A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eighteen: Records were broken

Posted on October 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I know, I skipped Day Seventeen, but since the daily EV totals came in at a more manageable hour last night (since early voting once again ceased at 7 PM), I was able to get the latest totals in. So … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Sixteen: All through the night

Posted on October 30, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This post is scheduled to publish before 5 AM today. When that happens, voting will still be happening in Harris County. In Harris County this year, residents can vote where the Rockets or Texans play, from the comfort or their … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fifteen: Now with evening hours

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In case you haven’t heard, Texas is in play. It’s six days from a presidential election, and the anchor of the Republican Electoral College coalition—Texas—is a toss-up. That is not just us being goofballs and throwing around dramatic words. “Toss-up” … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Fourteen: Where will we end up?

Posted on October 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Because we like starting with tweets: . Welp. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/texas/ — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) 5:58 PM – 25 October 2020 That was from Sunday, after the UT-Tyler poll was factored in. As you may know, there have been two polls released … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Thirteen: In the home stretch

Posted on October 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Twitter time: . According to the Texas Secretary of State, 7,193,582 Texans had voted as of Saturday, a turnout of 42.43% of registered voters. Texas turnout for *all* of 2016 (including Election Day) was 8,969,226, so the state is already … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Twelve: Second Saturday

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Where we are. Harris County surpassed 1 million ballots cast Friday, setting an early voting record with seven days remaining, in spite of the lingering COVID-19 pandemic and a flurry of lawsuits over the management of the election. The county … Continue reading →

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Overview of Harris County Sheriff’s race

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The explanation for why Sheriff Ed Gonzalez is a big favorite to be re-elected is quite simple, really. County veterans wondered if former Houston police officer-turned politician Ed Gonzalez would be up to the job of sheriff in 2016 after … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eleven: We reach one million

Posted on October 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s take a brief detour to Fort bend County. Fort Bend County voters continue to smash early-voting records — with a greater share of voters turning out so far than in populous Harris and Dallas counties, according to a news … Continue reading →

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