Tag Archives: Mitt Romney

What the Trib’s pollsters miss about their own polls

Posted on March 3, 2014 by Charles Kuffner

Having published their poll results, Jim Henson goes back and analyzes their gubernatorial poll, pronouncing it all a big success. The partisan responses to the poll results have been similarly predictable. The Republican chorus is singing I-told-you-so, chalking up Davis’ … Continue reading →

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Lyceum poll: Abbott over Davis, 29-21

Posted on October 3, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. Republican Greg Abbott is leading Democrat Wendy Davis by 8 points in a hypothetical matchup for Texas governor, but it’s a statistical dead heat among women, according to a Texas Lyceum Poll of registered … Continue reading →

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Yet another wacky poll about Latino voting in Texas

Posted on August 6, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Just when I thought I was out…they pull me back in. Sen. Ted Cruz lost the Hispanic vote in Texas by about 20 percentage points, but out-performed GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, according to post-2012 election polling shared with the … Continue reading →

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NPR’s odd claim about Latino voting in Texas

Posted on July 10, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

NPR takes its turn with the obligatory “can Texas turn blue” story, and in doing some provides a number I had not heard before. A new group called Battleground Texas is planning to spend tens of millions of dollars trying … Continue reading →

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What the future may hold for Wendy Davis

Posted on June 28, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Patricia Kilday Hart has her take on the Wendy Davis phenomenon, including the reaction of some Republicans to it. For both proponents and opponents of SB 5, the legislation that would have banned abortions past 20 weeks of pregnancy and … Continue reading →

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The trend matters as much as the average

Posted on June 20, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

I would characterize this Politifact analysis as basically accurate but not particularly meaningful. Republican consultant Karl Rove thinks Georgia Republicans need to be more like their Texas counterparts. In a May 18 speech at Georgia’s GOP state convention, Rove said … Continue reading →

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Taking back the Texas Senate

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Colin Strother says the Democrats should not overlook opportunities to make gains in the upper chamber of the Legislature. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats need a miracle to pick up any single seat, much less turn the chamber Blue. … Continue reading →

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PAC Plus polls Latinos in Texas

Posted on May 21, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

BOR reported last week on a poll of Texas Latinos conducted by PAC Plus. They zeroed in on the questions that had to do with Latinos’ impressions of Republicans and Democrats. For the survey PAC+ interviewed 2,685 randomly selected registered … Continue reading →

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Not just Austin, dammit

Posted on April 29, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

What Flavia Isabel says: The single purpose of this post is to eradicate the phrase “Oh yeah, Austin is a blue dot in a sea of red” from the vocabulary of anybody who cares about turning Texas blue. I am … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for … Continue reading →

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How Latinos voted in Texas

Posted on November 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey … Continue reading →

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First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

Posted on November 8, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with … Continue reading →

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Obama leads in poll of Harris County

Posted on November 1, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running … Continue reading →

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Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Posted on October 31, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera … Continue reading →

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UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Posted on October 30, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The … Continue reading →

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Ticket splitters

Posted on October 23, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

For better or worse, we live in a polarized world. Often, knowing a candidate’s political party tells you most of what you need to know in a general election. But definitely not always, and this year in particular there are … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: For Wendy Davis

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Very nice. Two state legislators are running to represent a demographically changing senatorial District 10: the incumbent, Democrat Sen. Wendy Davis, and Republican state Rep. Mark Shelton. Davis, who defeated an entrenched incumbent four years ago, did not take long … Continue reading →

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Presidential campaign contributions in Texas

Posted on October 20, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I suspect there’s not much in this story that will surprise you. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign raised nearly twice as much money in the greater Houston area than that of President Barack Obama – most of it from wealthier … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

Posted on October 19, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely … Continue reading →

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Lyceum poll: Romney 58, Obama 39

Posted on October 3, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This one is just nuts. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, with 58 percent to the incumbent’s 39 percent, according to a new Texas Lyceum Poll. The same survey … Continue reading →

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How about those judicial races?

Posted on October 1, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron takes a look downballot. Democratic judges who surprised Harris County in a 2008 rout because of strong turnout for Barack Obama are bracing for a tough fight in November after seeing the GOP, which had a clean sweep … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41

Posted on September 24, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Another new poll of Texas, from YouGov: Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney holds a solid, eleven-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 52% Romney to 41% Obama, in a poll of 1,254 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov. … Continue reading →

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What that Wilson Perkins poll really tells us

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

There’s something about that poll of Texas last week that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. I only mentioned it in passing myself, so I want to go back and spend a little more time on it. As I … Continue reading →

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New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama … Continue reading →

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“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

Posted on September 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald … Continue reading →

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Fifth Circuit strikes again

Posted on August 23, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Dammit. A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that Texas did not act unconstitutionally when it moved to expel Planned Parenthood from a health and contraceptive care program for low-income women. The ruling overturned a preliminary injunction, issued in April by … Continue reading →

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Romney-Ryan

Posted on August 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Game on. You’ve probably read all you can stand to read about this by now since it was everywhere on the internets yesterday, but do read Charlie Pierce if you haven’t already – he’s the best cure for mainstream media … Continue reading →

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Friday random ten: Let the games begin!

Posted on July 27, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the Summer Olympic Games! Pomp! Circumstance! Tradition! Overwrought personal stories! Athletic orgies! Ten songs about games! 1. Fool’s Game – Bonnie Raitt 2. The Name of The Game – from “Mamma Mia!” 3. Play The Game – Queen 4. … Continue reading →

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From the “If pigs had wings” department

Posted on June 26, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

It’s never a bad time to construct a counterfactual. What if Rick Perry had never said, “Oops”? What if he could have, for Christ’s sake, just remembered that he had wanted to gut the Department of Energy? What if he … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: GOP President and Senate in Harris County

Posted on June 18, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Though I didn’t have one originally, I now have a canvass of the GOP primary in Harris County from this year. Since it’s impossible for me to have data and not do something with it, I’ve taken a look at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The “not Obama” vote, such as it was

Posted on June 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I now have my hands on a draft canvass for the Democratic primary in Harris County, and you know what that means: Precinct data! I’ll be doing various analyses over the week so we can get a better idea of … Continue reading →

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GOP results, statewide

Posted on May 30, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Full, though not necessarily the most up to date, results, are here. The Trib and the Observer have good roundups as well. – Mitt. Yawn. He was at just under 70% statewide, with Ron Paul getting 11% and Rick Santorum … Continue reading →

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