Tag Archives: turnout

November 2023 Day Eight EV totals: You can’t out-nerd me

Posted on October 31, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

This Chron story about early voting through Sunday made me grind my teeth. One week in, early voting turnout has surpassed the levels seen in the last two Houston mayoral elections — but not overwhelmingly so — perhaps a surprise … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Seven EV totals: My one crazy theory

Posted on October 30, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We are officially one week into early voting for the November 2023 election. Here’s how it’s been going in Harris County so far: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 21,141 61,008 82,149 2019 6,799 55,937 62,736 2023 9,284 91,676 100,960 … Continue reading →

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Spotlight on the Harris County Clerk

Posted on October 29, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

But first, a few words about early voting so far. Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth reports that voters have cast more than 54.4K in-person ballots during the first four days of Early Voting for the November 7 Joint General & … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day Three EV totals: All in person

Posted on October 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We’re at the first Friday of early voting for the November 2023 election, and a pattern is beginning to emerge. This is the data through Day Three: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 18,196 27,596 45,792 2019 6,050 26,206 32,256 … Continue reading →

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November 2023 Day One EV totals: You’ve got no mail

Posted on October 25, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s that time you’ve been waiting for, so here’s what you want: Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2015 14,240 8,891 23,131 2019 5,407 7,973 13,380 2023 3,289 12,740 16,029 The final EV totals from 2015 are here and the final … Continue reading →

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What early voting looked like in 2015 and 2019

Posted on October 22, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Tomorrow we start voting – well, technically, tomorrow we start voting in person. People have already been sending in mail ballots, as we’ll see when the Day One EV totals are posted. I will of course report on this as … Continue reading →

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UH-Hobby Center poll: Whitmire 34, Jackson Lee 31

Posted on October 11, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Same pollster as before, nearly the same result. There has been almost no movement in Houston’s mayoral race over the last three months, with state Sen. John Whitmire and U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee still firmly entrenched atop the crowded … Continue reading →

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The young activists of today

Posted on October 1, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Keep track of these names, or better yet get to know them. Olivia Julianna typed “#johnnyboywhitmire” into TikTok’s search bar. To her delight, her five videos critiquing Texas state senator and Houston mayoral hopeful John Whitmire had garnered a combined … Continue reading →

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A brief word about voter registration in Houston

Posted on September 18, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

First, some important news: Houston residents have one month left to register to vote in November’s City Hall elections. Residents can visit various Harris County government offices, post offices, libraries or state agencies to fill out and submit a completed … Continue reading →

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Who votes in Houston elections?

Posted on August 21, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

The short answer is old people. When Houston residents head to the ballot box this November to elect a new mayor and city government, fewer people may actually show up than in Seattle, a city with a third of our … Continue reading →

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UH-Hobby Center poll: Whitmire 34, Jackson Lee 32

Posted on July 26, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

I have plenty to say about this. State Sen. John Whitmire and U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee would be neck-and-neck for first place if the Houston mayor’s race were held today, but Whitmire would sprint ahead in a potential runoff, … Continue reading →

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Federal judge rules for third parties in petition access lawsuit

Posted on July 3, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll see how much difference this makes. A federal judge in Austin has blocked Texas from enforcing a more than century-old state law that requires third-party candidates to collect petition signatures on paper to qualify for a place on the … Continue reading →

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On the (likely) future Biden/Trump matchup

Posted on April 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s way too early to pay any attention to state polling, but there are a few general principles to discuss here. President Joe Biden announced his reelection bid on Tuesday, setting up a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump … Continue reading →

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Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee is in for Mayor

Posted on March 28, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Okay then. The Quorum Report was first on the scene. Sources: In a closed-door event over the weekend, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee told pastors she is running for mayor of Houston The chatter is getting louder out of H-Town, where … Continue reading →

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What will it take to keep those ten appellate court benches we won in 2018?

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you may recall, Democrats won a ton of Appellate Court races in 2018. Ten of them, in fact, five each on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, the first such victories since winning a lone bench in 2008. … Continue reading →

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A very early thought about turnout in the 2023 Houston election

Posted on February 7, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Before I begin, please note that all of this involves a lot of back-of-the-envelope math and more than a few assumptions made along the way. The number of registered voters in Harris County, and thus in Houston, will certainly change … Continue reading →

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What I want from the next HCDP Chair

Posted on February 6, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, the Harris County Democratic Party will soon have a new Chair. And as you know, I am a Democratic precinct chair, which means I’m one of the several hundred people that will vote on who that is. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: County executive offices

Posted on January 9, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races Not as good statewide races County races appear towards the bottom of the ballot, after all of the federal and state races. With the exception of … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

Posted on December 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Specifically, my precincts

Posted on December 4, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still waiting for the full landscape canvass data from Harris County – things are a bit up in the air right now because of the lawsuit filed by the local GOP, but I expect to get that data soon, … Continue reading →

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On comparing counties from 2018 to 2022

Posted on November 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I started with this. Voters in counties across Texas chose GOP leaders over Democrats at a higher rate than they did four years ago, a Dallas Morning News analysis shows. The findings, based on data as of noon on Wednesday, … Continue reading →

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A brief look at the judicial races

Posted on November 18, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

From a few days ago: The advertisements rolled out with weeks to go until the November election. In one TV spot, the sister of Martha Medina urged Harris County voters in Spanish and another in English to honor her sister, … Continue reading →

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One weird trick for maybe doing better with the next election

Posted on November 16, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Democratic Party does another election post-mortem. The odds were more stacked than usual against Texas Democrats this election cycle, with an unpopular president from their party going against them. Yet there was still hope and cautious optimism within … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships, part 4: What happened in 2022

Posted on November 15, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 Now that the final totals are in, let’s go back and do the same exercise in comparing overall results for statewide candidates to the results they got in Harris County, and then from there … Continue reading →

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In which Harris County Republicans look for moral victories

Posted on November 13, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Believe me, as a Texas Democrat and a longtime fan of the Rice Owls, I know what it looks like to search for moral victories in the face of defeat. It looks like this. Harris County Republicans on Tuesday posted … Continue reading →

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The “less is more” option for improving Election Day

Posted on November 12, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

This deserves serious consideration. Widespread problems with Harris County elections likely would be relieved if officials reduced the number of polling locations in favor of fewer sites that operate more efficiently, a Rice University researcher and some recent reports say. … Continue reading →

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There were still ballots being counted yesterday

Posted on November 11, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I think they’re done now? It’s hard to say for sure from the story. With more than 1.1 million ballots cast, Harris County on Thursday still was counting ballots from Tuesday’s election. The county filed a request for an extension … Continue reading →

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Some opening thoughts on the 2022 election

Posted on November 10, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Done in the traditional bullet-point style. There may or may not be a part 2 to this, depending on the usual factors. – Obviously the overall result was disappointing. It was harder to see a Beto victory this year from … Continue reading →

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Omnibus 2022 election results post

Posted on November 9, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

It’s already midnight as I start writing this. I’m just going to do the highlights with the best information I have at this time. – Nationally, Dems are doing pretty well, all things considered. As of this writing, Dems had … Continue reading →

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Fewer mail ballots rejected in November

Posted on November 7, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Good, but still could be better. Local election officials in Texas are reporting a drop in the percentage of mail ballots that have so far been flagged for rejection during the ongoing midterm elections, as compared with a spike earlier … Continue reading →

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Final November 2022 EV totals: Catching up

Posted on November 6, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

First, some slightly outdated numbers from the Chron. Fewer Harris County voters cast ballots during this year’s early voting period than in the 2020 and 2018 elections, according to unofficial voter counts released after polls closed on Friday night. From … Continue reading →

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November 2022 Day Ten EV totals: Two to go

Posted on November 4, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

This is the data from Wednesday. It came in a little later than usual. Since yesterday was the vote-till-10PM day, I thought I’d provide this update now, and will give the final EV totals on Sunday. Final EV totals from … Continue reading →

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November 2022 Day Nine EV Totals: Still lagging

Posted on November 2, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Nine days down, three to go: Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 are here. The Day Nine totals for 2022 are here. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2014 60,400 191,432 251,832 2018 80,279 557,264 637,543 2022 … Continue reading →

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November 2022 Day Seven EV totals: On to Week 2

Posted on October 31, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Fresh from Sunday night: Final EV totals from 2018 are here and from 2014 are here. The Day Seven totals for 2022 are here. Year Mail Early Total =============================== 2014 57,546 137,137 194,683 2018 77,347 429,009 506,356 2022 44,163 354,100 … Continue reading →

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