Tag Archives: CD07

How Lizzie Fletcher won

Posted on November 16, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Now, having flipped a seat controlled for the last 52 years by Republicans, [Rep.-elect Lizzie] Fletcher heads to Washington with a target on her back, but also a desire to legislate with … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts: Congress

Posted on November 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll be honest: I never felt particularly confident about winning CD07 or CD32. Not because Lizzie Fletcher and Colin Allred weren’t excellent candidates, or anything to do with the trends of the national environment or what have you. I just … Continue reading →

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Metro’s post-Culberson future

Posted on November 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You might not be aware of this, but famously anti-Metro Congressman John Culberson lost his bid for re-election on Tuesday. What might that mean for Metro? In one of the more stunning defeats of incumbent Republicans on Tuesday night, Lizzie … Continue reading →

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Omnibus election report

Posted on November 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s after midnight, I’ve mostly posted stuff on my long-dormant Twitter account (@kuff), and I will have many, many thoughts in the coming days. For now, a brief recap. – As you know, neither Beto nor any other Dem won … Continue reading →

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Two stories about grassroots GOTV efforts

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Both from the Observer. First, Inside Beto’s Plan to Turn Out Black Voters in Houston: With two days till early voting, Cameron Mayfield, a Beto O’Rourke field organizer, gets busy setting up a makeshift campaign office in a corner of … Continue reading →

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Change Research: Cruz 49, O’Rourke 49

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Make of this what you will. In Texas (n=1211), Beto O’Rourke and Ted Cruz are dead even: O’Rourke is at 49%, Cruz is at 49%, and Libertarian Neil Dikeman is at 1%. We’ve polled a lot in Texas the past … Continue reading →

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The Beto-Abbott voters

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. Barring divine intervention, Greg Abbott will handily beat Lupe Valdez — the only real question is by how much. The floor, if there is one, is Wendy Davis’ crushing loss to Greg … Continue reading →

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October 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wow. It’s not just Beto. Newly filed campaign finance reports show that money flooded into Democratic congressional campaigns all across the state over the last three months. Along with Democrat Beto O’Rourke’s blockbuster $38 million haul in his bid against … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Of course it’s Lizzie

Posted on October 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron endorses Lizzie Fletcher over Rep. John Culberson, which may be the biggest non-surprise so far of the election season. More than longtime Republican incumbent U.S. Rep. John Culberson, or even her opponents from the heated Democratic primary, Fletcher … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Nine from Obama

Posted on October 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t know what the practical effect of this is, but I’m happy for the attention. Former President Barack Obama has backed nine more Democratic candidates in Texas as part of his second round of midterm endorsements. The nine candidates … Continue reading →

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CD32 “live poll”: Sessions 48, Allred 47

Posted on September 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Another on of these polls, another close result. Incumbent Republican Pete Sessions and Democratic challenger Colin Allred are in a dead heat in the much-anticipated race for Dallas County’s 32nd Congressional District. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll … Continue reading →

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Three different views of how competitive Texas Congressional districts are

Posted on September 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are by now familiar with The Crosstab and its 2018 Congressional forecast, as I’ve referred to it multiple times in recent months. G. Elliott Morris, the proprietor of The Crosstab, now works at The Economist, and they have their … Continue reading →

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Harvey and the Congressional races

Posted on September 22, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This was from a couple of days ago. A year ago this week, Dayna Steele was standing in 29 inches of water inside her Seabrook home. Her family had already made it through Hurricane Ike in 2008, when the water … Continue reading →

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CD07 “live poll”: Culberson 48, Fletcher 45

Posted on September 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s another of those NYT-Siena “live polls” of interesting Congressional races. Houston Rep. John Culberson holds a narrow lead over Democratic challenger Lizzie Fletcher, a poll conducted by The New York Times Upshot found Tuesday. Culberson’s 3-point lead is within … Continue reading →

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The Atlantic on CD07

Posted on September 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this: On a Saturday morning in Houston, the high was 94 degrees with a chance of rain. It was hardly friendly weather for canvassing—the door-knocking, yard sign–delivering, get-out-the-vote efforts that define a politician’s … Continue reading →

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Crosstab versus 538

Posted on August 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You are familiar with the Congressional race projections from G. Elliott Morris at The Crosstab, which I’ve noted here and here. He uses a probabilistic model for each district. Which as it happens is also the approach taken by FiveThirtyEight … Continue reading →

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Trump’s Texas beneficiaries

Posted on August 15, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Interesting. Six Texas Republican in Congress received a show of financial support from their party’s leader this week. President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign announced Thursday that it was donating the maximum contribution possible to around 100 House and Senate Republican … Continue reading →

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The meta-campaign for Senate

Posted on August 12, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s talk about what we talk about when we talk about the Senate campaign. It’s the most backhanded of compliments. U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke’s campaign for U.S. Senate has caught so much fire throughout the state that the new favorite … Continue reading →

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Culberson’s continued stock problems

Posted on August 9, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Oopsie. Two members of Congress from Texas — Republican U.S. Reps. Mike Conaway of Midland and John Culberson of Houston — purchased stock in a company last year that is now at the center of insider trading charges against one … Continue reading →

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Fundraising: 2018 vs the rest of the decade

Posted on July 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

When I posted about the Q2 Congressional finance reports, I said I would try to put the totals in some more context at a later time. This is where I do that. Take a look at this table: Dist 2012 … Continue reading →

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July 2018 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on July 18, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

So we know that Texas Democratic Congressional challengers really crushed it in Q2, and that’s on top of three strong quarters before that. How good was it? Let’s quantify. Here are the July 2017 finance reports, here are the October … Continue reading →

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Dems keep posting very strong finance reports

Posted on July 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wow. There are few bigger warning signs for a member of Congress that their re-election may be in doubt than when a challenger outraises them. In Texas, it just happened to seven incumbents, all Republicans. Since last week, when U.S. … Continue reading →

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We are going to get some Congressional polling soon

Posted on July 13, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Nate Cohn on Twitter: Well we’ve been working pretty hard over here in Upshot land for the last few months, but I think we’ll have at least one thing to show for it fairly soon: results from a test of … Continue reading →

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CD07 candidates endorse the August flood bond referendum

Posted on July 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

What I would expect. U.S. Rep. John Culberson and his challenger, Lizzie Fletcher, found rare common ground on Wednesday as both endorsed Harris County’s proposed $2.5 billion flood infrastructure bond proposal. Culberson said he can match every local dollar Harris … Continue reading →

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What the prognosticators are saying about Texas

Posted on July 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve covered some of this before, but with Daily Kos releasing their initial House race rankings, let’s see how the national prognosticators are classifying Texas Congressional races. Daily Kos Elections Tossup – CD23 Lean R – CD07, CD32 Likely R … Continue reading →

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Three more Dems top $1 million in Q2

Posted on July 10, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

In the morning there was Gina Ortiz Jones. Gina Ortiz Jones, the Democrat running against U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, R-Helotes, raised more than $1.2 million over the last three months, a huge haul that far outpaces the fundraising by her … Continue reading →

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Where best to attack Culberson?

Posted on July 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Flooding is an obvious issue, but it’s hardly the only one. After Hurricane Harvey flooded much of Houston – including the hotly contested Seventh Congressional District – Republican incumbent John Culberson used his position on the House Appropriations Committee to … Continue reading →

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Fletcher reports raising $1 million in Q2

Posted on July 7, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Our first story about a strong finance report from the just-ended previous quarter. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, the Democratic challenger in one of the Texas congressional seats that Democrats hope to flip in November, reported more than $1 million in contributions … Continue reading →

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On enthusiasm and fundraising

Posted on July 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

RG Ratcliffe engages the “can Lupe Valdez be competitive” question. Valdez will almost certainly lose to Greg Abbott in November. Yet if she inspires Hispanic voters to turn out, she could help Democratic candidates in tight down-ballot races and make … Continue reading →

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Where CD02 and CD07 stand

Posted on June 14, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The race in CD02 gets a little attention from the Chron. The demographic elements that make the 7th Congressional District in Houston one of the hottest midterm elections in the nation also run through a neighboring area that has some … Continue reading →

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Checking in on the Congressional forecast

Posted on June 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Now that our November lineups are finalized, I thought I’d check in once again on the 2018 Congressional race forecast, from G. Elliott Morris of The Crosstab. I last wrote about this in December, at a time when the generic … Continue reading →

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DCCC poll: Culberson 47, Fletcher 45

Posted on June 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Game on. The U.S. House race between GOP incumbent John Culberson and Democratic challenger Lizzie Pannill Fletcher is generally expected to be closer than most in this traditionally Republican enclave of west Houston and the Harris County suburbs. Now an … Continue reading →

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The Republicans’ risk factors in 2018

Posted on May 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Cook Report’s Dave Wasserman comes up with a system for evaluating Republican Congressional incumbents who may have some trouble in their future. Armed with fresh FEC data, we have created a table listing seven “risk factors” to gauge Republican … Continue reading →

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2018 primary runoff results: Congress and Legislature

Posted on May 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

All results are here. I began drafting this around 9:30 when there were still a bunch of precincts out, but with the exception of the tossup in CD25, all of the Congressional races were pretty clear by then: CD03: Lorie … Continue reading →

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