Tag Archives: Election 2012

November 2020 Early Voting Day Ten: Closing in on 2016

Posted on October 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A couple of tweets to get us started: . 1.3 million (25%) ofTX early voters so far did not vote in 2016. #txlege — Keir Murray (@houtopia) 2:40 PM – 21 October 2020 I talked about the likely percentage of … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Nine: Starting to run out of clever subtitles

Posted on October 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now, for something slightly different, Part One: This was hard for Jacob Monty. As a lifelong Republican, the 52-year old Houston attorney has been in the trenches with former President George W. Bush, never voted for a Democrat for … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Eight: Any idea what pattern we’ll follow?

Posted on October 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron provides five takeaways from early voting so far. Democrats appear to be doing well in Harris County, but don’t call it a wave yet. Turnout to date has been strong in precincts carried by Trump and Clinton in … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Seven: It’s Day One all over again, sort of

Posted on October 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a mid-day headline that needed some revision by the evening. Harris County is on pace to reach half of of 2016’s total voter turnout by Monday evening, the county clerk reported. By 11 a.m. Monday, the seventh day of … Continue reading →

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October 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is it, the last quarterly finance report roundup for the cycle. It’s been quite the time, hasn’t it? Let’s do this and see where we are as voting continues. The January 2019 roundup is here, which closed out the … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Six: And now we start the “normal” early voting period

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to jump right into the data here. The Day Six daily EV totals are here. You can find the daily totals for 2008 and 2012 (and 2016 as well, but I’ve got a separate link for it) … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Five: How not to look at the early voting totals

Posted on October 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Twitter on Friday: . Biden needs a rout in Harris County (#Houston) to have any chance of winning TX. We’ve had 3 days of record-shattering turnout and by tonight may have 500k votes. But so far, Biden probably isn’t … Continue reading →

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All those voter registration efforts did what they set out to do

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

News item #1: Texas adds nearly 300,000 more voters in the last two weeks, approaches 17 million voters overall. In just two weeks, Texas added more than 284,000 more voters to its rolls just before the registration deadline and now … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Four: One hundred thousand is the magic number

Posted on October 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Lather, rinse, repeat. The county announced it had passed the 100K mark in a tweet just after 6 p.m. It was the four straight day with more than 100,000 ballots cast by county voters. Those four days now mark the … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Three: It’s still raining voters out there

Posted on October 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

People want to vote. About 1.9 million Texans had cast ballots in-person or by mail as of Wednesday, according to state and county election data, continuing to crush state records for early voting. The 2020 presidential election is expected to … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day Two: One million votes on Day One

Posted on October 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Pretty impressive so far. More than a million Texans have already cast ballots after just the first day of early voting. And the state isn’t even finished counting the first day’s numbers. Record breaking early voting, combined with unusually high … Continue reading →

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November 2020 Early Voting Day One: People sure were ready to vote

Posted on October 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You’re going to hear the words “record-breaking” a lot. More than 125,000 Harris County residents went to the polls Tuesday to cast ballots on the first day of early voting, smashing the county’s previous records. As of about 7:30 p.m., … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Ed and Kim

Posted on September 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is an easy call. Anyone who has been led by personal experience or the events of the past year to conclude that cops are callous and jaded hasn’t meant Ed Gonzalez. The compassionate approach of this 51-year-old homicide detective-turned-city … Continue reading →

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The HCDE makeover

Posted on September 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One more world to conquer in Harris County. The future looked bleak for Texas’ last remaining county education department in early 2019. After years of state-level efforts to abolish the Harris County Department of Education, a new majority of trustees … Continue reading →

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Sixteen point six million

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That’s our current total of registered voters in Texas. Texas has once again shattered vote registration records, adding more than 1.5 million voters since the last presidential election. Texas now surpassed 16.6 million voters, according to the latest numbers announced … Continue reading →

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Don’t expect any surprises in the judicial races

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s a simple reason why the Democratic candidates and incumbents are expected to win all the judicial races in Harris County, as they did in 2016 and 2018. I’ll tell you why in a minute, but see if you can … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: The Susan Collins of Texas

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Three things in life are certain: Death, taxes, and certain Chron endorsements. The voters in state House District 134 — a swing district that covers all or parts of River Oaks, Bellaire and Meyerland and includes the Texas Medical Center … Continue reading →

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CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

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CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

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Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

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A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

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As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading →

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Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

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2020 Primary Runoff Early Voting, Second Tuesday: A history of Democratic primary runoffs

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday I said that the turnout so far in the 2020 Democratic primary runoff was already historic. Today I’m going to show my work on that. Herewith is the 21st century history of Democratic primary runoff turnout for Harris County: … Continue reading →

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Interview with Rep. Chris Turner

Posted on July 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve done two interviews about redistricting so far, with both of them focused on the litigation aspect of it, which in turn had a focus on Congress. Today I want to pay more attention to the Legislature, which is not … Continue reading →

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The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 49, Biden 44

Posted on April 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Our first post-primary poll. Donald Trump would beat Joe Biden by five points in Texas if the presidential race were held now, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. In a Trump-Biden contest, Democratic and Republican voters overwhelmingly … Continue reading →

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Coronavirus and the Census

Posted on March 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Oh, man, does this have the potential to be devastating. In some corners of the state, the meticulous planning spanned more than two years. Detailed maps of Texas communities were pored over. A ground game to knock on doors was … Continue reading →

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Does getting to 40% make you likely to win the runoff?

Posted on March 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was talking with some fellow political nerds last week, and one of the topics was the forthcoming runoffs. As is usually the case, this year we have some runoffs between candidates who finished fairly close together in round one, … Continue reading →

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Let’s talk turnout

Posted on March 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a few random bits and pieces about turnout from the primaries. On the one hand, I think it’s great that Dems got the turnout that we did, in Harris County and around the state. On the other hand, I … Continue reading →

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Trautman apologizes for the long lines

Posted on March 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A very good start. Harris County Clerk Diane Trautman is taking “full responsibility” for the long lines and wait times that bogged down election night voting and forced some voters to wait more than six hours to cast their ballots. … Continue reading →

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Primary early voting: Comparing 2020 to 2016

Posted on March 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks into the early voting numbers around the state. Experts cautioned that early voting data should be taken with a grain of salt — for one because the subset of people who vote early aren’t necessarily representative of … Continue reading →

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Final 2020 primary early voting report: “Healthy but not historic”

Posted on March 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Sounds about right. Democratic primary voters surged to the polls in Harris County on Friday, surpassing turnout from 2016 but falling well short of their record-setting performance in 2008. Republican primary voters, meanwhile, turned out in larger-than-expected numbers thanks to … Continue reading →

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2020 Primary Early Voting, Day Ten: Come hell or high water

Posted on February 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday was quite the day, wasn’t it? People did still vote, which is nice. Here’s the Day Ten report for 2020, and here are the totals from 2012, 2016, and 2018. The totals after Day Ten: Year Mail Early Total … Continue reading →

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