Tag Archives: Election 2016

Beto’s “We can win” message

Posted on March 11, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke offers a blueprint for how Democrats can win in Texas. In 2020, Joe Biden lost by less than Hillary Clinton did in 2016; eleven of the twelve State House seats we won in 2018 were successfully defended, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Other punditry | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Congress, coronavirus, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Georgia, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Texas, Texas Organizing Project, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Brazoria County

Posted on March 8, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Sheriff Tax Assessor County Clerk HCDE Fort … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, Brazoria County, CD14, CD22, Cody Vasut, Commissioners Court, Congress, Ed Thompson, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, HD25, HD29, Patrick Henry, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, Randy Weber, redistricting, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, Texas, The Lege, Travis Boldt, Troy Nehls | Comments Off

Here’s the TDP 2020 after action report

Posted on February 24, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Reasonably informative, though nothing here that I found terribly surprising. Texas Democrats have come to the conclusion that they fell short of their expectations in the 2020 election largely because Republicans beat them in the battle to turn out voters, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Joe Biden, Latino voting, quarantine, TDP, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 2 Comments

RIP, Rep. Ron Wright

Posted on February 9, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Condolences to his friends and family. U.S. Rep. Ron Wright, an Arlington Republican, has died. His campaign staff announced the news Monday. Wright had lived for years with cancer and was diagnosed with COVID-19 in January. He was 67. “His … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2021 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD06, Congress, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2021, Joe Biden, obituaries, precinct analysis, Ron Wright, special election, Tarrant County, Texas | 7 Comments

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend County, part 1

Posted on February 1, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD09, CD22, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Markowitz, Fort Bend County, Gary Gates, George Bush, Harris County, HD26, HD27, HD28, HD85, Jacey Jetton, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Ken DeMerchant, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Richard Morrison, Sarah DeMerchant, Senate, Sri Kulkarni, straight ticket voting, Texas, The Lege, Troy Nehls | Comments Off

A brief summary of what the next two years will be like

Posted on January 22, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

What will Republicans do without Trump? “The Republican Party is at a crossroads like it’s never been before, and it’s gonna have to decide who it is,” said Corbin Casteel, a Texas GOP operative who was Trump’s Texas state director … Continue reading →

Posted in National news | Tagged Attorney General, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Environmental Protection Agency, Greg Abbott, health insurance, immigration, Joe Biden, Ken Paxton, lawsuit, President, SCOTUS, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 25 Comments

Precinct analysis: Presidential results by Congressional district

Posted on January 18, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

From Daily Kos Elections, the breakdown of how Presidential voting went in each of Texas’ 36 Congressional districts: Two districts did in fact flip on the presidential level: Trump lost the 24th District in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs while recapturing … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD15, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD28, CD31, CD32, CD34, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Filemon Vela, Henry Cuellar, Hillary Clinton, Jessica Cisneros, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, Texas, Vicente Gonzalez | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Tax Assessor 2020 and 2016

Posted on January 13, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Ann Harris Bennett, Chris Daniel, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Tax Assessor, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, Mike Sullivan, precinct analysis, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

What is the direction of voting by mail?

Posted on January 13, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

It was different in 2020, but that doesn’t mean it’s permanently different. Democratic voters in Texas were more likely to cast their ballots by mail than Republican voters in the last election. Today, that may sound like a forgone conclusion, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, HCDP, TDP, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Sheriff 2020 and 2016

Posted on January 11, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney County Attorney Behold your 2020 vote champion in Harris … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD18, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Sheriff, HD126, HD132, HD135, HD138, HD144, HD145, HD149, Joe Danna, Kim Ogg, precinct analysis, Ron Hickman, SD13, Texas, Vince Ryan | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: County Attorney 2020 and 2016

Posted on January 5, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities District Attorney The office of County Attorney gets less attention than … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD07, CD29, Christian Menefee, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Attorney, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD130, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, HD149, HD150, Jim Leitner, John Nation, Kim Ogg, precinct analysis, Texas, Vince Ryan | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: District Attorney 2020 and 2016

Posted on January 4, 2021 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions Appellate courts, Part 1 Appellate courts, Part 2 Judicial averages Other cities We move on now to the county executive office races for … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD07, CD10, CD18, CD29, Devon Anderson, District Attorney, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, HD126, HD133, HD134, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, HD150, Kim Ogg, Mary Nan Huffman, precinct analysis, Texas | 1 Comment

More on the TDP 2020 audit

Posted on December 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I’m very much looking forward to seeing the final report, but I don’t have a clear idea of the objectives from this story. [Unsuccessful State House candidate Brandy Chambers’] election night confusion mirrors the second-guessing going on within the Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brandy Chambers, Chris Hollins, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gilberto Hinojosa, Harris County, Jen Ramos, Joe Biden, Kendall Scudder, President, TDP, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: Appellate courts, part 1

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Amparo Guerra, Austin County, Brazoria County, Burleson County, Chambers County, Colorado County, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Grimes County, Harris County, Jane Robinson, Jim Sharp, judicial races, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, Terry Adams, Texas, The Lege, Tracy Christopher, Trinity County, turnout, Veronica Rivas-Molloy, Walker County, Waller County, Washington County | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: Other jurisdictions

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Audrey Young, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dan Patrick, David Romero, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Houston, Joe Biden, judicial races, Lawrence Allen, Michelle Palmer, Paul Bettencourt, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, SBOE, SD07, SD17, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: Comparing to 2012 and 2016

Posted on December 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts I had meant to get to this last week, but SeditionPalooza took up too much of my time, so here we are. The intent of this post is to compare vote … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Christi Craddick, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eva Guzman, Harris County, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD142, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD146, HD147, HD148, HD149, HD150, Hillary Clinton, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, turnout, Wayne Christian | 4 Comments

2020 precinct analysis: Introduction and overview

Posted on December 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So I finally got a full canvass of the 2020 election in a nice and convenient spreadsheet form. I spent a fair amount of the Thanksgiving week doing what I usually do with it, to generate totals for all of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Commissioners Court, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, judicial races, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege | 8 Comments

Counties of interest, part seven: West Texas

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas Part 6 – Central Texas Last entry in this series, and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Abilene, Amarillo, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Jones County, Kerr County, Kerrville, Lubbock, Midland, Midland County, Odessa, Potter County, precinct analysis, President, San Angelo, Taylor County, Texas, Tom Green County, turnout, Wichita County, Wichita Falls | 2 Comments

Counties of interest, part six: Central Texas

Posted on December 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar Part 5 – East Texas We move on now to counties in Central Texas, which for … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bell County, Belton, Brazos County, Bryan, College Station, Corpus Christi, Coryell County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Granbury, Grayson County, HD54, Hood County, I-35, Killeen, McLennan County, Nueces, precinct analysis, President, Sherman, Temple, Texas, The Lege, Victoria County, voter registration, Waco | 2 Comments

Counties of interest, part five: East Texas

Posted on December 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Part 4 – Counties around Bexar The next three entries in this series will look at regions, and counties of interest within … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Angelina County, Bowie County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Gregg County, Hardin County, Harrison County, Henderson County, Hunt County, Huntsville, Jefferson County, Longview, Lufkin, Marshall, Nacogdoches, Nacogdoches County, Orange County, precinct analysis, President, SHSU, Smith County, Stephen F. Austin State University, Texarkana, Texas, Tyler, Van Zandt County, voter registration, Walker County | 3 Comments

So now we start to prep for redistricting

Posted on November 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s gonna make for a long session, or more likely sessions. Wielding the map-drawing power will not be entirely painless for Republicans, who have seen their grip on dozens of state and federal districts erode since the last round of … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged Congress, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, filing deadline, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD121, HD126, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD26, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD54, HD65, HD67, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, HF64, lawsuit, Legislative Redistricting Board, primaries, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, special session, Texas, The Lege, Voting Rights Act | 5 Comments

Counties of interest, part four: Around Bexar

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Part 3 – Counties around Travis Pop quiz, hotshot: Close your eyes, or cover the table below, and name for me the seven counties that border Bexar. Go … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Atascosa County, Bandera County, Bexar County, Comal County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Guadalupe County, Kendall County, Medina County, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Wilson County | 4 Comments

Counties of interest, part three: Around Travis

Posted on November 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Part 2 – Counties around Dallas/Tarrant Travis County has been at the forefront of the Democratic renaissance in Texas, punching well above its weight with both performance and turnout. Its blue essence has been … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bastrop County, Blanco County, Burnet County, Caldwell County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Hays County, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Travis County, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Beware color-coded county maps

Posted on November 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I spotted this on Twitter the other day and it got me thinking: . Biden now leads by 3.86 points nationwide, per @Redistrict popular vote tracker, matching Obama’s 3.86 pt win in 2012. He’ll exceed it soon. They won by … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Bastrop County, Caldwell County, Comal County, Donald Trump, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, King County, Lubbock, Medina County, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Railroad Commission, Senate, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

A high level look at the changing suburbs

Posted on November 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib takes a broad and high-level look at what I’m digging into now. Although they didn’t get the blue wave they expected, Democrats narrowed the gap with Republicans in five of the most competitive and populous suburban counties in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Chambers County, Collin County, Dallas County, demography, Denton County, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Johnson County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, Parker County, President, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Counties of interest, part two: Around the Metroplex

Posted on November 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part 1 – Counties around Harris Dallas and Tarrant Counties are two big squares right next to each other, so I’m combining them into one post. County Romney Obama Trump Clinton Trump Biden Shift ========================================================================= Collin 196,888 101,415 201,014 140,624 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Collin County, Dallas County, demography, Denton County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Ellis County, Johnson County, Kaufman County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Rockwall County, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, Wise County | 17 Comments

Counties of interest, part one: Around Harris

Posted on November 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s been so much focus in the past couple of years about the suburbs and how their traditional voting patterns have changed. I wanted to use the election results we have to take a closer look at what that means. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brazoria County, Chambers County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Liberty County, Montgomery County, precinct analysis, President, Texas, Waller County | 6 Comments

A closer look at county races, Part 2

Posted on November 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Part One is here. As before, this is about taking a closer look at the counties where Democrats made gains from 2016. Collin County: Our reach may have exceeded our grasp, but it’s important to note that progress was made. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Brazoria County, CD03, CD21, CD22, CD24, CD25, CD26, Collin County, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Denton County, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Erin Zwiener, Hays County, HD106, HD33, HD45, HD63, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD70, HD89, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, President, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, SBOE, Sheriff, Supreme Court, Tax Assessor, Texas, The Lege | Comments Off

A closer look at county races, Part 1

Posted on November 16, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In this series of entries, I’m going to take a trip through the local election results pages on some counties of interest, to get a closer look at how they went this year and how that compares to 2016. We … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Carlos Uresti, CD31, Commissioners Court, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Falls County, Fort Bend County, Harris County, HD117, HD118, HD136, HD52, HD85, Hillary Clinton, James Talarico, Jennifer Cantu, Joe Biden, Joe Lopez, John Bucy, John Carter, John Cornyn, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Larry Gonzales, Leo Pacheco, Mike Clark, Mike Gleason, MJ Hegar, Pete Flores, Phil Stephenson, Phillip Cortez, President, Railroad Commission, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, Richard Morrison, Robert Chody, Roland Gutierrez, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, Supreme Court, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, Tomas Uresti, Tony Dale, Williamson County | 3 Comments

The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hays County, Hillary Clinton, I-35, Joe Biden, John McCain, Jones County, Mitt Romney, President, Tarrant County, Texas, turnout, voter registration, Williamson County | 3 Comments

So how did my simple projection work out?

Posted on November 12, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Remember this? I divided the counties up by how much their voter rolls had grown or shrunk since 2012, then used the 2016 turnout levels and 2018 results to project final numbers for the Presidential election in 2020. Now that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 2 Comments

It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD18, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Justice of the Peace, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

A first response to the Latino voting (and polling) question

Posted on November 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

For your consideration: . Fixating on Zapata County and saying Dems have a Latino problem in Texas is inaccurate. The reality is Latino voter participation broke records and expanded the democratic vote margins in the state. #Texas #LatinoVote Thread 1/5 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Bexar County, Dallas County, Donald Trump, El Paso, Election 2016, Election 2020, HD137, HD138, HD140, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD148, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Jolt Initiative, Latino voting, polls, precinct analysis, President, Starr County, Texas, turnout | 11 Comments

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