Tag Archives: Hillary Clinton

Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

Posted on October 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots … Continue reading →

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Crosswind/Statesman: Trump 45, Clinton 38

Posted on October 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more poll result, because why not. In the wake of recent polls indicating that deep red Texas might be a toss-up in the presidential race, a new Crosswind/American-Statesman Texas Pulse poll conducted Saturday through Monday shows Republican Donald Trump … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 45, Clinton 42

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Even the UT/Texas Trib poll shows a tight Presidential race in Texas. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a three-percentage-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton on the eve of early voting in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas … Continue reading →

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The Trump effect on the SBOE

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib covers some familiar ground. At least one SBOE race is “very much in play,” said Rice University political scientist Mark P. Jones. He’s referring to District 5, where Democrat Rebecca Bell-Metereau is attempting to unseat incumbent Republican Ken … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Four: Just the facts

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here is your Day 4 EV report, and here as always is the spreadsheet that tracks early voting in Presidential elections going back to 2004. Long story short, another record-breaking day, with about the same volume (just over 76,000 in … Continue reading →

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Donald who?

Posted on October 27, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Never heard of him. As national polls show Hillary Clinton widening her lead just two weeks before the presidential election, Texas Republicans mostly have gone silent about the candidate at the top of their ticket, presidential nominee Donald Trump. Lt. … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Posted on October 27, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Two: How long can we keep this up?

Posted on October 26, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Texas Monthly crunches some numbers from Day One: Digging further into the numbers, it seems as though the long-whispered awakening of Texas Democrats happened, at the very least, on day one. GOP consultant Derek Ryan, who published a detailed report … Continue reading →

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CBS/YouGov: Trump 46, Clinton 43

Posted on October 25, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Texas is being tracked as a battleground state. I can’t even believe I just typed that. Hillary Clinton holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump in Florida, while in Texas – a state that has voted Republican by wide margins … Continue reading →

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The Trump effect and the State Supreme Court

Posted on October 25, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib touches on a subject I addressed awhile ago. Three Republican members of the Texas Supreme Court running for re-election are facing Democratic challengers who say they may have a chance in the solid-red state with Donald Trump at … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Posted on October 25, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more … Continue reading →

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UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 36

Posted on October 22, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

More polling locally. A new survey released Thursday by the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Democratic challengers for county wide office rising sharply against Republican incumbents. It also showed Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a … Continue reading →

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The state of the polls

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race … Continue reading →

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UH Hobby School: Trump 41, Clinton 38

Posted on October 19, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Damn! Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has one of his slimmest leads yet over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton in Texas, 41 percent to 38 percent, according to a new poll among registered voters. Trump’s support falls within the survey’s margin … Continue reading →

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Clinton campaign to run ads in Texas

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

It’s come to this. Hillary Clinton’ campaign is going on the air in solid-red Texas, a remarkable move by a Democratic presidential nominee as her Republican rival, Donald Trump, struggles across the country. Clinton is launching a one-week ad buy … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD134

Posted on October 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at that perpetual swing district, HD134 Artful redistricting has squeezed the general election suspense from nearly all of Harris County’s legislative races, rendering most districts solidly red or blue. Democrat Ben Rose is hoping to prove his … Continue reading →

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Flipping Fort Bend

Posted on October 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

FiveThirtyEight projects a national insight down to the local level. In August, Nate Cohn of The New York Times put it well when he wrote: “The simple way to think about Mr. Trump’s strength is in terms of education among … Continue reading →

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WFAA/SurveyUSA: Trump 47, Clinton 43

Posted on October 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The margin keeps narrowing. After perhaps the most damaging week of his campaign, Donald Trump’s lead in Texas has slipped to four percentage points – within the margin of error – according to a new poll released Thursday night. The … Continue reading →

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The Trump dilemma

Posted on October 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’d almost feel pity for them, if they hadn’t brought this on themselves. Leading GOP elected officials — including Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn — condemned the words but continued … Continue reading →

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KTVT/Dixie Strategies: Trump 45, Clinton 38

Posted on October 10, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

This is post-debate but pre-“grab her by the pussy”. In a state where it is generally accepted that a GOP nominee is almost guaranteed a win in a presidential election, real estate mogul and presidential nominee Donald Trump has “under-performed” … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of judicial races

Posted on October 9, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

In case anyone is paying attention to them. As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races. That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Trump 50.1, Clinton 41.5

Posted on October 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

So says the YouGov Election Model for Texas. Here is how that works. The raw data for our analysis is a rolling sample of over 30,000 respondents to YouGov’s polling over the past two weeks, updated with around 3,000 new … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: Who stands with Trump?

Posted on October 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Texas Monthly wonders if any Texas newspaper will endorse Donald Trump. Between the three newspapers with the largest circulations in Texas—the Houston Chronicle, the Dallas Morning News, and the San Antonio Express-News—there have been exactly two endorsements of a Democratic presidential nominee in the … Continue reading →

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Registration versus turnout

Posted on October 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ross Ramsey throws a bit of cold water on the surge in voter registrations. Turnout isn’t nearly as volatile as registration. Over the past 10 presidential elections in Texas, the percentage of Texas adults registered to vote has gone as … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of SBOE races

Posted on October 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There are a few races of interest, though the usual bet is that nothing unusual will happen. Dakota Carter, a Democrat and underdog in District 6, said he got “fired up” to run for the board because he is tired … Continue reading →

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More DNC presence in Texas

Posted on October 1, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Glad to see it, even if I’m not really sure what it means. The Democratic National Committee is expanding its presence in Texas as polls continue to show a closer-than-usual presidential race in the solidly red state. Texas is set … Continue reading →

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More on Republican turnout concerns

Posted on September 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

It’s a thing that is happening, though it’s hard to say to what extent. On Monday, one of the most prominent Republicans in Texas has a warning for supporters that Texas could go blue this election. Governor Greg Abbott is … Continue reading →

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Clean Power Plan’s day in the DC court

Posted on September 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We’ll see how it goes. Dozens of lawyers from the government, industry and public interest groups packed the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit, to hear the divisive case that comes just weeks before a heated presidential election … Continue reading →

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Voter registration way up statewide

Posted on September 27, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

That’s a lot. Nearly 15 million people are now registered to vote in Texas, a state record. Texas currently has more than 14.8 million voters registered — over 1 million more than were registered in the 2012 presidential election, according … Continue reading →

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UH Hobby School (Harris County only): Clinton 43, Trump 34

Posted on September 23, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I have many thoughts about this. Between September 1 and September 20, 2016, the University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs conducted a telephone survey of 550 Harris County registered voters as part of a larger Hobby School study … Continue reading →

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Two more Clinton campaign offices opened in Texas

Posted on September 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

In Austin: The Democratic National Committee opened its Austin headquarters on Sunday. The move comes amid a surprisingly narrowing gap (given the longtime deep-red status of the state) between Clinton and her GOP rival, Donald Trump, for the presidency. The … Continue reading →

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So what’s going on with these polls of Texas?

Posted on September 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Republicans are feeling a little touchy about them. “I think the emerging picture is one that looks a little bit tighter in the presidential election than we’ve seen in recent elections in the state,” said Joshua Blank, whose Texas Lyceum … Continue reading →

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Another story about the possible Trump Effect on downballot races

Posted on September 17, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

It’s mostly about one legislative race in particular, but that’s okay. When he worked in the oil industry, Thomas Benavidez traveled to drilling sites across Texas and northern Mexico. The work was exciting, and the pay was good. He rarely … Continue reading →

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Lyceum: Trump 39, Clinton 32

Posted on September 16, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the Texas Lyceum, another single-digit poll result. If the U.S. presidential election were held today, ballot tests show a tighter race at the top of the ticket in deep red Texas than recent history would suggest, according to independent … Continue reading →

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