State GOP sues the lawyer who led their sore loser election contest lawsuits

Oh my God, this is hilarious.

The Republican Party of Texas is suing a lawyer who helped write the state’s recent election reform law and who they claim duped several former Republican candidates into believing they could prove election fraud in Harris County.

The suit, filed Friday in Mitchell County, stems from a spate of election contests filed by Harris County Republican candidates after the 2022 general election. Most of those were dismissed without going to trial, and in one case that did go to trial a judge ruled that county officials made mistakes but “not enough votes were put in doubt to justify voiding the election.”

The new complaint alleges attorney Elizabeth Alvarez lied to 17 candidates that her firm had prepared a “data model” that would have shown that “more than 40,000 voters were suppressed.”

That model “never existed and Defendants were not able to put forth even a scintilla of evidence,” the suit states. “Ultimately, Defendants’ inability to substantively respond to the no evidence motions for summary judgment resulted in each of their remaining clients’ shameful defeat.”

The complaint also alleges that she misrepresented the amount of time it would take for the case to be resolved, her level of expertise in election litigation and her commitment to finishing the case “within an agreed upon budget.” The plaintiffs are seeking to recoup at least the $350,000 that the party paid to the firm and up to $1 million in damages, according to one of their attorneys, Steven J. Mitby.

“They feel that they really got taken advantage of, and we’re trying to get that money back for the donors,” Mitby said.

Alvarez is a prominent election attorney in GOP circles and was instrumental in helping Republican state lawmakers craft a controversial election reform law in 2021 that outlawed 24-hour and drive-thru voting and spurred Democrats to flee to Washington, D.C. to try and derail its passage.

In interviews Wednesday, Alvarez and her co-counsel, Scott Gray, who was also named in the suit, denied the allegations.

They said they never offered a “data model,” but instead had explained that they planned to model their approach after the Department of Justice’s system for evaluating the impact of poll closures as it relates to the Voting Rights Act.

[…]

Alvarez and Gray represented a slate of Harris County Republican candidates after the 2022 election, including most prominently Alex Mealer who ultimately lost her challenge to unseat Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, a Democrat.

Mealer, a lawyer herself, and Alvarez had feuded prior to Mealer dropping her as counsel back in August over filing deadlines and case strategy. Mealer is separately engaged in an arbitration with Alvarez over the same alleged misrepresentations as in the Republican Party suit, Mitby said. Mealer declined to comment.

Alvarez said the party stopped paying her and Gray for their work around February or March and still owes them in the ballpark of a “couple hundred thousand” dollars.

“I’m appalled that they filed suit against us,” said Gray, whose firm, Guest and Gray, is also named as a defendant in the suit. “They’ve got the gall to ask for money from us even though we’ve continued working unpaid to try to help Republican candidates. We’re doing the job the Republican Party of Texas is supposed to do. They’re interfering. For me, as a Republican, it’s sad.”

The party is represented by the lawyers who took over for Alvarez after Mealer fired her. Sartaj Bal, a former Republican judicial candidate and lawyer who also fired Alvarez, chose instead to represent himself.

See here for a bit of background, and here for a deeper cut on Elizabeth Alvarez’s history of questionable election-related lawsuits. I’d totally forgotten about her feud with A**x M****r. This is a gift that keeps on giving.

You can see a copy of the complaint here. The one thing that was not clear to me in reading this story is why the lawsuit was filed in Mitchell County, a place I had never heard of that straddles I-20 between Abilene and Midland. I thought maybe it was because Elizabeth Alvarez lived there, but she appears to live in the Metroplex. If I find out, I’ll update. Reform Austin has more.

UPDATE: An answer to my question:

Still feels weird to me for it to be filed in such a remote location, but the law is like that sometimes.

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The recent history of runoff early voting

I brought this up in yesterday’s post, so let’s take that look at how much of the runoff vote has been cast early in the last few Mayoral elections.


Year    Early    E-Day    Total    EV %
=======================================
2003   77,984  138,804  216,788  35.97%
2009   67,760   87,215  154,975  43.72%
2015  116,399   93,635  210,034  55.42%
2019  118,245   85,035  203,280  58.17%

There were runoffs in other years, before the switch to four-year cycles, but none since 2001 had a Mayoral race, and we don’t have full early voting data from that year. I could have included the data from 2013 and so on but decided it wasn’t apples to apples and didn’t really add much.

There are two things I take away from these numbers. One is that if I had also considered runoff early voting patterns, I might have been a bit more conservative in my estimate of final turnout in November. The fact that early voting volume was less in 2019 for the November election than it had been in 2015 threw me off. Looking at this would have made me think maybe that was an outlier and I should expect the early voting rate to be higher. Live and learn.

And if that’s the case, then I would probably expect that early voting will make up about 60% of the total volume for this runoff, on the theory that it will nudge up a couple of points. If so, then final turnout will be a hair under 220K, a new high in absolute terms but at best a wash with 2019 in percentage of registered voters. I’m going to spare myself more math and just note that if the EV volume is a little higher then 2003 will remain the turnout champion. Given how things have gone so far, and with the likelihood of some afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday, it’s probably wise to bet the under. Whatever the case, go vote tomorrow if you haven’t already.

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Dispatches from Dallas, December 8 edition

This is a weekly feature produced by my friend Ginger. Let us know what you think.

This week, in news from Dallas-Fort Worth: Mark Cuban sells the Mavericks and a lot of filing activity in the Metroplex. Plus, the Fairfield State Park saga comes to a sorry end; scamming and ransomware against local governmental entities; Atatiana Jefferson news; a local State Representative cops a plea; Mayor Johnson on talk radio; Allen West, like the bad penny, is back; news and views on the newest Trinity River park plan; Tim Horton’s and Buc-ee’s in the news; and which Fort Worth restaurants you can find a genuine movie star eating at.

This week’s post was brought to you by the music of Trevor Horn, the legendary 80s producer.

The biggest news in Dallas this week has been the impending sale of the Mavericks to Miriam Adelson of the family that owns the Sands in Las Vegas. It’s all supposed to come together by the end of the year if the NBA approves.

The story comes with a lot of question marks. Does this deal mean that casinos are coming to Texas? (Star-Telegram and DMN) What does this mean for the Mavericks on the court? What will Mark Cuban, the Mavericks’ current owner, do with his time? (Shark Tank and his pharmaceutical company, plus he’ll still be involved with the team, looks like.) Then there are the wild speculations like whether he’ll run for president (Spoiler: almost certainly not).

The nine days of wonder associated with this story are about at their end, but Cuban has long been an advocate for casino gambling in Texas. What will happen on that front, especially with the Republicans who run our state in disarray, is worth keeping an eye on.

Also it’s filing season! We won’t know everyone who’s on the ballot until it closes on December 11 but a number of people have already put their money down. A lot of this coverage comes from The Fort Worth Report, which is doing the necessary work of writing about who’s filing for everything on that side of the Metroplex.

And in other North Texas news:

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2023 final runoff Early Voting totals

Early voting has ended. Early takes are flowing in.

As of Tuesday night, nearly 132,000 votes – 120,155 in-person ballots and 11,732 mail ballots – had been recorded in Harris County, according to the Harris County Clerk’s Office. That compares to the 115,000 votes cast early in the county during the last runoff in a mayor’s race in 2019.

[…]

Far behind in fundraising and advertising, Jackson Lee’s chances rest heavily on boosting turnout from her supporters. According to the early voting numbers, her hopes of high turnout have yet to materialize, said Nancy Sims, a University of Houston political analyst.

“Right now, you’ve got Kingwood voting a thousand people a day, and Kashmere Gardens voting three hundred people a day. That’s just an example,” Sims said, referring to a predominantly white neighborhood and a predominantly Black neighborhood.

I’m not here to dispute the notion that SJL started out behind, or that what she really needs is to turn out more of her supporters, which is surely the hottest take you’ve ever read here. What I am here for is to take a closer look at the Kingwood versus Kashmere nugget, because my general rule is that data points are only really meaningful when they’re in context. Both the 2015 and 2019 Mayoral runoffs featured a candidate whose success depended in large part on generating turnout in the Black districts. Also, too, there are more places where lots of Republicans and lots of Black voters go to do their civic duty. So why not take a broader look at that and see what if anything we see? That’s what I’m here for.


Location      SRD    2015    2019    2023
=========================================
Kingwood      127   6,595   8,092   8,381
Freeman       129   4,679   4,742   5,367
Nottingham    133   4,649   6,132   8,470
Total              15,923  18,966  22,218
Pct                14.04%  16.46%  16.85%

Hiram Clarke  131   2,701   2,692   3,924
Acres Homes   139   3,687   2,657   3,143
NE MSC        141   3,991   3,058   3,424
Kashmere      142   2,236   1,855   1,973
Sunnyside     146   4,257   3,723   4,630
Various       147   4,261   3,026   2,398
Total              21,133  17,011  19,492
Pct                18.64%  14.77%  14.78%

Metro MSC     134  10,540  11,138  12,748
Bayland       137   5,420   5,157   5,897
Trini M       138   6,962   7,048   9,872
Moody     148/145   1,609   2,009   2,862
Alief ISD     149   2,668   2,872   2,179
Total              27,199  28,224  33,558
Pct                23.99%  24.50%  25.44%

The first three locations are Republican locations, starting with Kingwood. If you’re wondering where the other Republican early voting locations are, remember that most of those districts (HDs 126, 128, 130, and 132) are not in the city of Houston, and as this is (almost entirely) a city-only runoff, there are no EV locations in those places, as they’d have nothing to vote for. The next six are in Black districts; the specific location I picked for HD147 changed across all three elections, from the Palm Center to the Young Library to Wheeler Baptist Church. The last five are other places of interest, put there as sort of a control. You could argue for putting the HD138 location in with the Republican districts, but HD138 is fairly swingy and Trini Mendenhall is in a diverse area. It’s the call I made, argue with me as you see fit. Moody Park was in HD148 before the 2021 redistricting, and it is in HD145 now. Oh, and “Pct” is just the share of those votes of the EV total.

For what it’s worth, Mayor Turner needed a very high Black turnout to eke out a win over Bill King in 2015. He got less of that turnout, at least in early voting, in 2019, but had no trouble squashing Tony Buzbee. EV turnout in 2023 is more Republican and less Black than in 2015, but about the same on each (in percentage terms) as in 2019. What does that tell us for 2023? Hell if I know. My point here was to illustrate that there’s more data to look at than just Kingwood and Kashmere (to be fair, Nancy Sims did say that was just one example), and that in comparison to previous years, I’m not sure what conclusion if any I would draw. Feel free to draw your own.

And now, here are those final EV numbers, for your viewing pleasure.


Year    Mail     Early    Total
===============================
2015   27,153   86,233  113,386
2019   18,935   96,269  115,204
2023   11,732  120,155  131,887

Previously posted totals are here, the final daily EV report from 2015 is here, the final daily EV report from 2019 is here, and the final daily EV report for 2023 is here. I’ll be back tomorrow to discuss the historic trend in runoff early voting. As always, let me know what you think.

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Candidate Agwan sued by former staffer for sexual harassment

Not good.

Pervez Agwan

A former campaign worker has sued a progressive Democratic challenger to Congresswoman Lizzie Fletcher, accusing him of making unwanted sexual advances toward her after she complained about another staffer sexually harassing female campaign workers.

The lawsuit accuses Pervez Agwan of assault, battery and false imprisonment.

Agwan, contacted Monday by the Houston Landing, issued a statement calling the lawsuit a “dishonest hit-job” and appeared to blame it on the national lobbying group American Israel Public Affairs Committee known as AIPAC.

“We are witnessing a politically motivated lawsuit that is part of an orchestrated smear campaign. These allegations are unequivocally false. Our campaign retained an independent party to do a thorough investigation many weeks back. There is no evidence to support any allegation in the lawsuit. This is a dishonest hit-job and we will fight tooth and nail against anyone attempting to derail our grassroots, people-powered campaign.”

The statement continues: “My campaign is the only campaign in the state of Texas that is directly taking on the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC). I will not back down against the dirty lobbies coming after our movement.”

Asked for evidence of the alleged smear campaign, Agwan texted links to news articles about his advocacy against the Israeli invasion of Gaza, adding “we are the only pro-Palestine congressional campaign in the state.” Agwan later reiterated that his campaign believes the lawsuit is a “smear and hit job” without providing additional information.

The lawsuit was filed in a Harris County state district court on Friday by former Agwan for Congress campaign worker Maha Chishtey, who is seeking up to $2 million in damages.

Agwan is running for the newly redrawn Texas 7th Congressional District, the seat currently occupied by Fletcher.

The lawsuit details an Oct. 17 encounter in which Chishtey says Agwan summoned her to campaign headquarters, where he was waiting for her alone. Chishtey alleges that following a long conversation, Agwan put his hands on her and attempted to kiss her, according to the lawsuit.

The suit states that when Chishtey declined Agwan’s advances, he prevented her from leaving the office. After “what seemed like an eternity,” Chishtey was allowed to leave the office and resigned from the campaign shortly after, according to the lawsuit.

AIPAC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The lawsuit alleges the Oct. 17 incident occurred two weeks after Chishtey complained to Agwan that the campaign’s organizing director, Angelo Perlera, had made inappropriate remarks and inappropriately touched young female campaign staffers.

I’m not in a position to assess any of the claims made here as yet. These are very serious charges, and I would like to take the time to process this. What I will say for now is that I’m making my 2024 primary interview list, and I’ve had the CD07 contest on there since Agwan’s entry, so when we get there we’ll revisit the question. Until then, we’ll see what happens. The Chron has more.

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State abandons effort to retake Fairfield Lake State Park

Of interest.

The Texas Parks and Wildlife Department has effectively thrown in the towel on a monthslong battle to buy or seize a 5,000-acre property that includes the now-closed Fairfield Lake State Park in Freestone County.

Dallas-based developer Todd Interests purchased the land in June for about $103 million from Vistra Corp., a private power company that for decades had leased the portion containing the park to the state at no cost. Soon after, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department — which had turned down an opportunity to buy the entire property from Vistra — filed a petition to seize the property, located about 100 miles south of Dallas, through eminent domain.

A Freestone County judge then appointed a panel of local landowners to set a fair market value for the property as part of the eminent domain process. The state could have taken immediate possession of the property if it agreed to pay that amount, but it balked at the panel’s price — $418.3 million, about four times more than what Todd Interests paid for the land a few months ago.

The state, which had argued that the value of the property was $85 million, could have appealed that decision and triggered a civil trial but instead decided to cease efforts to take the property. The Parks and Wildlife Department also said it doesn’t intend to make future attempts to seize any portion of the property, including water rights.

“TPWD recognizes the importance of conserving our state’s natural resources and providing recreational opportunities for Texans,” TPWD Executive Director David Yoskowitz said in a statement. “However, TPWD must also responsibly manage the state’s fiscal resources in order to maximize the benefit of our parks for all Texans.”

Todd Interests plans to turn the former park into a high-end gated subdivision with multimillion-dollar homes, a golf course and restaurants. The company has already begun construction.

[…]

Texas residents who have been advocating to save the park said they were disappointed in the state’s decision. Administrators of the Save Fairfield Lake State Park Facebook group were pushing the state to appeal the local panel’s decision on the property’s value.

“Even though this is concluded, I want people to continue pushing our public officials to conserve public land,” said Misti Little, administrator of the Facebook group. “We are only going to lose more land as cities expand outward, so we need to keep the momentum moving forward.”

See here for the last update. I’m a little surprised the state folded this quickly. They certainly had the authority to use eminent domain, and while there would have been a court fight, it seems to me they would have prevailed. Maybe this was budgetary, maybe there were some other politics going on, who knows. What I do know is that while I would prefer that we still have Fairfield Lake State Park, it was the state’s screwup that led to this. One can hardly blame Todd Interests for taking advantage of the opportunity that was before them. I just hope we all learned something from this.

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Texas blog roundup for the week of December 4

The Texas Progressive Alliance wishes Henry Kissinger a nice warm eternity in hell as it brings you this week’s roundup.

Continue reading

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One weird trick to make those election lawsuits go away

Worth a shot. Maybe it’ll work.

State officials have apparently found a legal tactic to prevent a slew of election contest lawsuits from derailing the constitutional amendments that voters overwhelmingly approved in November.

The state argued in court filings Tuesday that the lawsuits were improperly served and because Gov. Greg Abbott canvassed the results a day earlier, the lawsuits are now effectively invalid. The law requires such lawsuits to be filed and served before the canvass.

Right-wing activists filed the election contests in Travis County district courts days after the November election. The lawsuits are based on false claims that the state’s voting equipment is not certified and that voting machines are connected to the internet.

The issue took on new urgency in recent days as some Republicans at the Capitol rang the alarm that the contests could jeopardize the implementation of the constitutional amendments, which include property tax cuts that were a hard-fought priority of the GOP. The Texas Senate scrambled to pass a legislative fix, but the House declined to consider it and both chambers gaveled out for the fourth special legislative session Tuesday.

[…]

In one of the Tuesday filings, the secretary of state’s office argued that the plaintiffs in the election contests “never served a citation” properly. The election code says a contestant’s petition “must be filed and service of citation on the Secretary of State must be obtained before the final official canvass is completed.”

“Since the Governor has declared the official results of the election in a proclamation, Plaintiffs’ purported effort to void the election on a constitutional amendment that is now ‘a part of th[e] Constitution’ is moot,” the filing said.

See here for the background. We are firmly in uncharted (and completely wacko) waters, so who knows. There were multiple lawsuits filed in multiple counties, so either this has to work with all of the judges or I suppose the Multidistrict Litigation Panel will have to get involved. I’ll leave it to the lawyers to advise me on that one. Republicans sure hope this can be disposed of quickly, because 1) it’s embarrassing, and more importantly 2) a whole lot of nice stuff they promised to voters will be held up, possibly for many months, until it is. And they had the chance to do something about it legislatively but didn’t, which, again, embarrassing. Hope that bed y’all made for yourselves is comfy.

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Precinct analysis: At Large #4

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum
At Large #1
At Large #2
At Large #3

After that nine-candidate pileup in AL3, At Large #4 and its four contenders is a much more sedate affair, and a lot easier to analyze.


Dist  Morales  Plummer   Branch   Pattsn
========================================
A       6,643    5,900    1,511    2,013
B       2,405    9,722    1,213    1,848
C       9,957   20,128    2,399    3,453
D       3,520   13,938    1,444    2,204
E      10,655    6,962    2,237    2,793
F       2,858    3,288      899    1,130
G      12,088    9,999    2,293    2,979
H       6,424    7,297    1,227    1,434
I       5,247    5,952      835    1,158
J       2,534    2,771      636      869
K       3,960    9,866    1,195    1,718
				
Dist  Morales  Plummer   Branch   Pattsn
========================================
A      41.35%   36.72%    9.40%   12.53%
B      15.83%   64.01%    7.99%   12.17%
C      27.71%   56.01%    6.68%    9.61%
D      16.68%   66.04%    6.84%   10.44%
E      47.05%   30.74%    9.88%   12.33%
F      34.96%   40.22%   11.00%   13.82%
G      44.18%   36.55%    8.38%   10.89%
H      39.21%   44.54%    7.49%    8.75%
I      39.77%   45.12%    6.33%    8.78%
J      37.21%   40.69%    9.34%   12.76%
K      23.66%   58.94%    7.14%   10.26%

I sometimes forget that Roy Morales has been around since 2006, when he won the Precinct 1 seat on the HCDE Board of Trustees after the Democratic incumbent decided not to file at the last minute and no one else was lined up to file in his place. He’s been running for Council and Mayor since 2007 and I think it’s fair to call him a perennial candidate by now. He’s definitely still a weirdo with terrible political ideas and the one truly redeeming thing about him was that surreal “Bikers for Roy” ad from the 2009 Mayor’s race that has sadly disappeared from the internets. Griff Griffin has lost his juice so I guess we have to settle for Roy now.

Anyway. Letitia Plummer had about 48% of the vote, so she just missed winning outright. She led in every non-Republican Council district, and did respectably well in those three. She has more money – I’ve seen a few ads for her – and a decent reputation on Council, and I see no reason why she won’t win the runoff. And then Roy will run again in 2027, lather rinse repeat.

I’ll return to the remaining races of interest (AL5 and the two City propositions) next week, after the runoff. I hope this series has been useful for you.

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Galveston ordered to use its current map for 2024

Pending the Fifth Circuit, of course.

Commissioner Stephen Holmes

A federal judge ruled Galveston County must keep its old commissioner precinct map in place for the 2024 election while a federal appeals court mulls overturning its precedent and allowing new maps which do away with the county’s only minority-majority district.

Judge Jeffrey Brown of the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Texas early Friday ruled that, because candidates were already announcing campaigns, it was too late for the county to weigh in on what remedial maps would look like. Instead, the county should use maps that kept the existing boundaries largely in place, Brown ruled.

But hours after his ruling, the county wrote to the Fifth Circuit asking them to re-impose a stay that would put the new maps in place for the 2024 elections.

The latest flurry of legal maneuvering is part of a winding case that could change how the U.S. Voting Rights Act is interpreted and might one day end up before the U.S. Supreme Court, said Derek Muller, a professor of law and expert in election law at the University of Notre Dame.

“As personnel have changed on the courts, there’s been an increased appetite in revisiting some of the previous holdings of the circuit,” Muller said. “Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is obviously contentious. And multiple Supreme Court decisions lately have gone multiple directions, some in favor of the plaintiffs and some in favor of the states.”

The Fifth Circuit Court in November ruled commissioners violated the U.S. Voting Rights Act by eliminating the only minority-majority district in its latest redistricting process, but the judges said previous precedent essentially tied their hands. In the same ruling, they asked the full court whether it would be interested in convening an en banc hearing – in which all 17 of the circuit court judges would meet and consider the case — to revisit precedent on Voting Rights Act cases. The court later agreed to that hearing, which is tentatively set for May.

Muller called the court’s decision to revisit its own precedent rare, but not completely unusual.

[…]

Filing for the 2024 primary season has already begun. Muller said one problem with election litigation like this is that elections are always on the horizon. There’s a chance this lawsuit doesn’t end conclusively before the next election, in which case new maps won’t be in place until the following election, he said.

See here, here, and here for the background. Anyone who wants to talk about how long this litigation might drag on, pull up a chair and let me tell you about the last few decades of Congressional redistricting litigation in Texas. As far as the federal district and appellate courts screwing around with what the Voting Rights Act means, there’s a lot of that going around right now; I’ll address that further in another post. For once, time may be on our side, given that candidate filings have been going on for three weeks and the primary isn’t going to move. But it ain’t over till the Fifth Circuit runs out of gas, so hang tight.

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Texas woman seeks emergency abortion approval

Boy howdy is this a big ol’ can of worms.

A Texas woman is asking a judge to allow her to get an emergency abortion after learning that her baby has a rare and typically fatal condition.

The first-of-its-kind lawsuit, filed Tuesday, is significant because it comes a week after state lawyers suggested before the Texas Supreme Court that only pregnant women in immediate distress could bring claims against the state’s abortion ban.

The plaintiff, Kate Cox, 31, of Dallas, and her husband, Justin, are asking for permission to receive an abortion from their physician in Texas without fear of legal repercussions.

Abortion is banned in Texas other than to save the life of the mother or prevent “substantial impairment of a major bodily function.” Medical professionals have described the exception as vague and note that violations carry possible penalties of life in prison, steep fines and a loss of their medical licenses.

Cox is 20 weeks pregnant and received test results last week showing that her fetus has trisomy 18, a chromosomal disorder that carries a low likelihood of survival, according to the suit.

Because she has previously delivered her two children via cesarean surgery, Cox is at higher risk of complications that threaten her life and future fertility if she continues the pregnancy, the lawsuit said. She believes abortion is her safest option, but her Houston physician, Dr. Damla Karsan, is unable to perform the procedure because she fears violating the state’s strict abortion ban, according to the lawsuit.

Cox’s husband is also listed as a plaintiff because he wants to help his wife without fear of penalties under Senate Bill 8, which empowers anyone to sue someone who “aids and abets” an abortion.

“It is not a matter of if I will have to say goodbye to my baby, but when. I’m trying to do what is best for my baby and myself, but the state of Texas is making us both suffer,” Cox said in a statement. “I need to end my pregnancy now so that I have the best chance for my health and a future pregnancy.”

If you’re wondering what this may have to do with the current case before the State Supreme Court, the answer is “everything”.

The high court heard arguments in [Zurawski v Texas] Nov. 28, including the state’s claim that the plaintiffs do not have the legal right to sue, since none of the 20 are currently seeking abortions.

Texas Supreme Court Justice Jeff Boyd asked Assistant Attorney General Beth Klusmann if there was ever a circumstance in which a woman would be able to bring a lawsuit seeking to clarify the law. Klusmann replied that a woman actively seeking an abortion for a lethal fetal anomaly would arguably have standing to sue the attorney general for her specific case.

“And then the defense would be whether or not they intended to enforce it in that circumstance or not, so through the ultra vires, sovereign immunity process, we’d probably hash out some of the merits,” she said. While Klusmann acknowledged that it was likely “impractical” for a woman to file a lawsuit while dealing with a complicated pregnancy, “we don’t bend the rules of standing for practicality.”

As those arguments were happening in Austin, Cox was in the Dallas area, learning her much-wanted pregnancy was unlikely to result in a live baby. In researching her options, she learned about the lawsuit and reached out the Center for Reproductive Rights, which filed both suits. Tuesday’s lawsuit follows the model Klusmann laid out before the justices last week, bringing an ultra vires challenge to the state’s abortion law as it applies to her specific lethal fetal diagnosis.

The lawsuit says that Cox cannot wait for the Supreme Court to rule and asks the judge to grant a temporary restraining order, prohibiting enforcement of Texas’ abortion bans against Cox and her husband, as well as Dr. Damla Karsan, an OB/GYN who has agreed to perform the abortion, and her employees. Karsan is a plaintiff in Zurawski v. Texas as well. Cox’s lawsuit also asks for a declaratory judgement that finds the state’s abortion bans do not apply to patients with emergent medical conditions.

Molly Duane, senior staff attorney for the Center for Reproductive Rights, agreed with Klusmann that most people experiencing a pregnancy complication won’t be able to file a lawsuit. And with such a novel litigation strategy, she said it was unclear whether the courts would act quickly enough to actually get Cox the relief she seeks in a timely manner.

“This is not a normal or reasonable or feasible way for health care to be practiced in this country,” Duane said.

If a judge grants a temporary restraining order, the Office of the Attorney General cannot directly appeal or block that order, as it has with the injunction in the Zurawski case. But the state could ask a higher court to intervene through a writ of mandamus filing, which would delay and possibly deny Cox’s request for an abortion. And a temporary restraining order would not likely extend beyond Cox’s case, meaning other patient seeking an abortion on similar grounds would need to go to court themselves.

“It would be persuasive, but it’s not a binding precedent,” said Charles “Rocky” Rhodes, a law professor at South Texas College of Law.

One outstanding question would be whether Cox’s husband and doctor might be vulnerable to lawsuits if any injunction was later overturned on appeal. Texas’ novel ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy, which is enforced entirely through private lawsuits, contains a provision that indicates people could face lawsuits for aiding or abetting abortions that occurred while an injunction was in place, if that injunction was later overturned. That provision has never been tested in court, and Rhodes said it’s unclear whether it would hold up.

“There’s a lot of novel stuff colliding in this case,” he said. “We knew these questions were coming, just maybe not so soon.”

Those chickens, they do like to roost. My best guess here is that the state will file a response that says something to the effect of “sure, SOME woman under these circumstances MIGHT have standing to sue for the right to an abortion without legal harassment, but not THIS woman at THIS time, for these legal argle-bargle reasons”. I say this on the assumptions that 1) the Attorney General will absolutely feel compelled to oppose this, since their goal is zero abortions ever; 2) the Zurawski plaintiffs (who, remember, are being repped by the same attorneys as the Coxes) will absolutely file a brief with SCOTx if the AG contradicts what it just testified to on this question; and 3) SCOTx will take it seriously if the AG does in fact contradict themselves.

I suspect this will move quickly through the courts, since any delay will moot the issue, so we will find out soon enough how accurate my musings are. Even if the Coxes prevail, it will still be infuriating that anyone would have to go through this to get the medical care they need and deserve, but this is where we are. Have I mentioned that we really ought to make this a much bigger campaign issue next year? The Associated Press has more.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #3

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum
At Large #1
At Large #2

At Large #3 had the largest non-Mayoral field on the ballot, with nine candidates. Five candidates finished with at least ten percent of the vote, with a sixth falling just short. That left the leaders with 22 and 20 percent, and a muddled picture at the precinct level.


Dist Cantu  Joseph   Curry  Carter  Cooper    EMcC  Nguyen  Amadi   Ganz
========================================================================
A    3,396     843   1,707   3,747   1,367   2,088   1,933    380    607
B    1,709   2,094   1,294   2,187   3,834   2,113     939    275    245
C   10,652   1,569   3,488   6,859   4,085   3,619   3,539    541  1,707
D    2,863   1,849   1,697   3,533   5,194   2,713   1,652    397    610
E    3,761   1,085   1,989   6,967   1,942   4,507   2,063    334    551
F    1,360     528     753   1,549     887     990   1,798    308    217
G    5,825   1,208   2,325   8,178   1,587   4,680   2,607    419    683
H    6,044     790   1,369   2,245   1,853   1,308   1,549    470    673
I    4,077     861   1,072   1,608   1,732   1,165   1,449    448    458
J    1,422     421     664   1,150     788     742   1,162    282    209
K    3,052   1,135   1,486   3,022   3,239   2,050   1,592    380    478
									
Dist Cantu  Joseph   Curry  Carter  Cooper    EMcC  Nguyen  Amadi   Ganz
========================================================================
A   21.14%   5.25%  10.62%  23.32%   8.51%  12.99%  12.03%  2.36%  3.78%
B   11.63%  14.25%   8.81%  14.89%  26.10%  14.38%   6.39%  1.87%  1.67%
C   29.54%   4.35%   9.67%  19.02%  11.33%  10.04%   9.81%  1.50%  4.73%
D   13.96%   9.02%   8.27%  17.23%  25.33%  13.23%   8.06%  1.94%  2.97%
E   16.21%   4.68%   8.57%  30.03%   8.37%  19.43%   8.89%  1.44%  2.38%
F   16.21%   6.29%   8.97%  18.46%  10.57%  11.80%  21.43%  3.67%  2.59%
G   21.17%   4.39%   8.45%  29.73%   5.77%  17.01%   9.48%  1.52%  2.48%
H   37.08%   4.85%   8.40%  13.77%  11.37%   8.02%   9.50%  2.88%  4.13%
I   31.68%   6.69%   8.33%  12.49%  13.46%   9.05%  11.26%  3.48%  3.56%
J   20.79%   6.15%   9.71%  16.81%  11.52%  10.85%  16.99%  4.12%  3.06%
K   18.57%   6.91%   9.04%  18.39%  19.71%  12.47%   9.69%  2.31%  2.91%

Richard Cantu, who finished first in this extravaganza, had the plurality of the vote in four districts: C, H, I, and J. His strong showings in the first three of those are his best feature going forward. Runnerup Twila Carter carried Districts A, E, and G, which she’ll certainly need in Round Two. Third place finisher Donnell Cooper led the way in B, D, and K, three districts where Cantu will need to step up, and former Council member (and fifth-place finisher) Richard Nguyen was the top votegetter in his old stomping grounds, District F. Like I said, a muddle.

As all but three Council districts are Democratic, there are multiple paths to victory in a runoff for a Democrat. Running up the totals in the Black districts is one common path, while killing it in C while holding your own in the Republican districts is another. Cantu’s November numbers suggest he’s closer to the second path, with a side order of strong numbers in the Latino districts, but he’ll need something from Column A to win as well. The good news for him is that he ran quite competitively with Carter in Districts A and G; the bad news is that he trailed her in Districts B and D. As the identified and endorsed Democrat in the runoff, I’d expect Cantu to pick up much of the vote that Donnell Cooper got in Round One. I don’t know how much of that he’ll need, but he’ll need some of it.

Carter, as noted before, has some ads running on Facebook. I have no idea how effective those are, but we know the electorate is old, and that at least suggests the possibility that she’s actually getting her ads in front of the people she’d like to see them. The Republican path to victory is more or less the inverse of Democratic Path A, which is dominate the Republican districts and mitigate the damage elsewhere. She has a plausible shot at it.

I can’t let this go without noting Casey Curry’s performance. In every district except A, her vote percentage ranged from 8.27% to 9.71%, which may be the tightest spread outside of a one-percent finisher I’ve ever seen. Even adding in District A and her 10.62% finish there, the range of her showing (2.35 percentage points) is narrower than it was for the guys who got 2.12 and 3.22 percent of the total. I haven’t looked back through my archives to see if this really is an outlier, but it’s close enough. I love nothing more than a statistical oddity in my precinct numbers.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Mayor proposes his water bill fix ordinance

This sure got a lot of late momentum.

Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is adding water bill reform to his to-do list as he approaches the end of his eight years in office.

Turner announced at a Monday news conference nine separate ordinance changes that will go before city council Wednesday to help water customers.

City residents have struggled in the past with being charged for estimated use of their water instead of their actual use. Some customers have seen water bills as high as $1,000. Houston Public Works typically estimates water usage and back charges after reading residents’ meters, but that process usually takes time.

Among the nine ordinance changes proposed by Turner are removals on the number of times residents can seek the city’s assistance for water leaks, incentives to residents who fix their private leaks themselves and incentives to residents who sign up for online instead of paper billing.

Another proposed change will allow customers who don’t want to use their city water meter to lock it for $150. Customers can have it unlocked for free if they decide they want to use it again. Houston’s water meters automatically transmit household usage to the city’s server, but issues such as aging meters and slow replacements have doubled the number of malfunctioning devices.

Houston Public Works Director Carol Haddock said Monday that 125,000 of the city’s 550,000 accounts have to be read manually every month.

“We hear you and we know that we’re going to continue to hear ways to improve as we move forward,” Haddock said. “And we look forward to continuing to hear that, but also know that we know it’s a good day when we can present a plan to the community to help provide relief to everybody, including our most vulnerable Houstonians and our senior citizens.”

See here for the background. The Mayor’s package of ordinances includes the one initially put forward by CMs Amy Peck, Carolyn Evans-Shabazz, and Mary Nan Huffman under the new charter amendment that allows three Council members to add an item to the agenda.

Houston Landing adds some details.

Since 2019, officials say, Houston’s aging devices for remotely reading water meters have been failing at a rising rate. The number of accounts requiring a manual reading has increased from 40,000 in 2019 to 125,000 this year, leading the city to resort to estimated readings much more often.

When those estimates turn out to be far off-base, city code often restricts customer service agents from providing residents with relief.

“Quite frankly, these ordinances are outdated and they were written for a different time,” Turner said. “They were created with the assumption that all of the equipment worked properly and we received accurate readings of customers’ water usage. Today’s reality is quite different.”

Existing city ordinance prevents customers from requesting more than two water bill adjustments per year for water leaks. Turner is proposing to do away with that limit.

A second change would offer bigger incentives to fix the “private leaks” that are considered the customer’s fault. Customers would receive 100 percent relief on excess charges for fixing leaks within 30 days, 75 percent relief for repairs within 60 days, and 50 percent relief for repairs after that.

Customers also would receive a 100 percent credit on the wastewater charges associated with leaks, because that water rarely returns to the city’s sanitary sewage system.

Residential customers still stuck with high bills after the other adjustments can seek what is known as a leak balance remaining adjustment, which is designed to address the remaining excess charges. Turner said another reform will lower the cutoff for that adjustment from $2,000 in excess charges to $1,000 for most customers.

Another change: Customers seeking an unusually large bill adjustment will be on the hook for 125 percent of their average water usage as opposed to the existing 150 percent.

Public Works would be able to reduce customers’ bills for an “exceptional circumstances” adjustment, by up to $10,000 instead of the current $4,000 maximum reduction.

Rounding out the proposed changes are a 50-cent discount for customers who use electronic billing; an option for customers who do not take water to have their meters locked instead of seeking out expensive private plumbers to cap a line; and a prohibition on customers receiving higher, corrected bills after three months.

I switched to electronic billing for my water a few months ago, so yay for me. It all sounds good, and both Sheila Jackson Lee and John Whitmire have said they will pursue further improvements. Why it wasn’t addressed sooner is a question we likely won’t get an answer to before Mayor Turner’s term ends. The Monday episode of the CityCast Houston podcast addressed this as well.

Posted in Local politics | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Jim Leyland elected to the Hall of Fame

Congratulations!

Jim Leyland, the longtime manager who guided the Florida Marlins to the 1997 World Series title, was elected to baseball’s Hall of Fame on Sunday.

Leyland was named on 15 of 16 ballots in the election process during a meeting of the Hall’s contemporary baseball era committee, which examined the cases of managers, umpires and executives whose greatest contributions came after 1980.

Nominees needed to be named on at least 12 ballots for enshrinement. Falling just short was former manager Lou Piniella, who was named on 11 ballots. Executive Bill White was listed on 10 ballots. Also considered were managers Cito Gaston and Davey Johnson, umpires Ed Montague and Joe West, and executive Hank Peters.

Leyland will become the 23rd person to be inducted into the Hall as a manager and the first since 2014, when Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa and Bobby Cox were enshrined. Leyland, who got his start in the majors as a coach under LaRussa with the Chicago White Sox, was asked to sum up what he tried to impart to his players over the years.

“I tried to impress upon them what it was to be a professional and how tough this game is to play,” Leyland said. “And I told them almost every day how good there were.”

[…]

Leyland, 78, will be inducted into the Hall of Fame on July 21 in Cooperstown, New York. He originally signed as a player with the Tigers organization in 1964, so when he is recognized among the game’s immortals next summer, it will be the crowning achievement of 60 years around the professional game.

“It’s the final stop, really, as far as your baseball career goes,” Leyland said. “To end up and land there at Cooperstown? It doesn’t get any better. I mean, that’s the ultimate.”

Good for him, it’s well deserved. I’m sad to see that Bill White wasn’t also included – there’s basically no one else like him out there, as a quality player who was also a groundbreaking broadcaster and executive – but that was the decision the committee made. I hope he’s still around when the committee meets next. In the meantime, we’ll celebrate for Jim Leyland. MLB.com and Fangraphs have more.

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Precinct analysis: At Large #2

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum
At Large #1


Dist    Davis  Hellyar   Coryat     Bess    Holly     Obes
==========================================================
A       5,494    3,854    1,580    2,112    1,830    1,184
B       5,834      800    1,286    5,148      658    1,211
C       7,921   13,067    2,477    4,679    4,923    2,740
D       6,341    2,628    1,353    7,827    1,230    1,696
E       9,254    5,975    1,601    2,411    2,122    1,326
F       2,971    1,386      853    1,248      822    1,020
G      10,410    8,853    1,386    2,654    2,909    1,626
H       3,871    3,499    2,290    2,386    2,676    1,193
I       3,314    1,911    1,932    2,798    1,790    1,040
J       2,212    1,243      748      937      935      755
K       5,277    2,888    1,415    4,083    1,430    1,511
						
Dist    Davis  Hellyar   Coryat     Bess    Holly     Obes
==========================================================
A      33.27%   23.34%    9.57%   12.79%   11.08%    7.17%
B      38.44%    5.27%    8.47%   33.92%    4.34%    7.98%
C      21.38%   35.28%    6.69%   12.63%   13.29%    7.40%
D      30.08%   12.47%    6.42%   37.13%    5.83%    8.04%
E      40.18%   25.94%    6.95%   10.47%    9.21%    5.76%
F      35.36%   16.50%   10.15%   14.85%    9.78%   12.14%
G      37.30%   31.72%    4.97%    9.51%   10.42%    5.83%
H      23.02%   20.81%   13.62%   14.19%   15.92%    7.10%
I      24.71%   14.25%   14.41%   20.87%   13.35%    7.76%
J      31.93%   17.94%   10.80%   13.53%   13.50%   10.90%
K      30.94%   16.94%    8.30%   23.94%    8.39%    8.86%

Willie Davis is no stranger to being in the AL2 runoff – he’s been there twice before, in 2015 and 2019, both times with outgoing incumbent David Robinson. You might think his profile as a Black Republican might enable him to get enough crossover support to be dangerous – I admit I was very nervous about that 2015 runoff – but Robinson easily defeated him both times. Davis has never raised much money and I can’t say I’ve ever seen an ad or even a campaign sign for him outside of a polling place. He gets Republican support, but that’s not nearly enough to win a Houston race.

That said, this time he starts as the leader from the November election, leading Nick Hellyar in Round One in Harris County 31.8% to 23.1%. That’s Davis’ best showing in a November race, and his path to a win this week is easy enough to define: Win big in the Republican districts and do well enough in the Black districts to erode Hellyar’s Democratic advantage. With Danielle Bess and Obes Nwabara also on the ballot, Hellyar wasn’t competitive in B, D, and K. You look at that as plenty of room to grow or as a big hole to crawl out of. On the flip side, Hellyar more than held his own in A, E, and G, and he should be set up to dominate District C. Too put it another way, he just has to try to mimic Robinson’s runoff performances. Hellyar has also been on the ballot before, though not in a runoff, he has money and a path to follow. I make him a slight favorite, but I’ve got some 2015-style nerves on this one.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments

8 Day runoff 2023 campaign finance reports

The last campaign finance reports for the year are the 8 day reports for the runoff elections. These were mostly filed on Friday, so let’s have a look at them. The 8 Day reports from November for the Mayor’s race are here, the 30 Day reports for the At Large races are here, and the 30 Day reports for the district Council races are here. All of the reports I have collected for this cycle can be found in this Google folder.


Candidate     Raised      Spent       Loan     On Hand
======================================================
Whitmire   1,783,437  2,995,793          0   3,318,439
JacksonLee   498,414    341,575          0     235,189

Hollins      330,956    161,689          0     315,346
Sanchez       82,897    127,089    198,128      56,592

Miles
Ramirez       50,422     41,130     20,000       8,241

Hellyar      185,984    169,364          0      44,891
Davis         21,930     11,654      1,500      13,874

Cantu         30,210     15,106          0      38,723
Carter       108,330     92,589      4,000      79,191

Plummer      208,115    182,046          0      26,069
Morales       11,288      1,092     21,979      16,844

E-Shabazz
McGee

Huffman      158,550    170,111          0      44,782
Buzbee        48,945    312,261    850,000      60,457 

Castillo     130,870    124,171     10,000     113,505
R-Revilla     22,420     30,262          0      41,974

Melanie Miles, Carolyn Evans-Shabazz, and Travis McGee did not have reports filed as of Sunday afternoon when I went looking. They may get filed today, or they may have been received by the City Secretary but not posted yet. Check today and see what you see. CM Evans-Shabazz had some other issues to deal with, so who knows.

I said in my post about the 8 Day Mayoral reports that John Whitmire was in position to dominate spending in the runoff, and, well, you can see for yourself. I continue to see a bunch of Whitmire ads, both online and on TV. (He has run at least one ad during The Golden Bachelor. Jokes about the Houston electorate and Whitmire himself are left as an exercise for the reader. And yes, I know this from firsthand experience.) I have finally started to see some online ads for Sheila Jackson Lee, but suffice it to say that the ledger remains way out of balance. Jackson Lee did pick up a key endorsement over the weekend, so there’s that. (Some context for you young’uns who don’t remember any Mayors before, like, Annise Parker.)

A question that I have been asked more than once in recent days: Will Jackson Lee file to run again in CD18 if she falls short in the runoff? My best guess is that she will, but that is just my guess. I will remind everyone that Amanda Edwards and Isaiah Martin have raised a bunch of money in that race already. I would still make SJL a favorite, but that would be two elections in a row where she faced better-funded opponents. Maybe she won’t want to do that.

As far as the other citywide races go, I continue to see ads from Chris Hollins, mostly on Facebook and Instagram, and lately I’ve seen some from Twila Carter on Facebook. I’ve seen one or two from Letitia Plummer but can’t remember where. I believe we’ve received some mail from Nick Hellyar, but I’m not always on top of the snail mail before it gets put into the recycling bin.

That said, we have definitely gotten a bunch of mail and door-hangers from both District H candidates. Cynthia Reyes-Revilla has been heavily criticized for sending out a homophobic attack piece against Mario Castillo; she has lost at least one endorsement because of it. I was told there was an anti-Revilla website , presumably put up by the Castillo campaign, which might have been the impetus for the mailer. I didn’t find such a site on a cursory Google search, but even if one existed that’s a line that should not be crossed. I’m really disappointed by this, to say the least. I do not vote for candidates who engage in that kind of behavior, and I hope I have a lot of company in that.

All I can say about District G is thoughts and prayers to everyone there, who must be able to heat their homes for the winter with all of the mail they’ve surely received by now. If they had fireplaces to burn them in, anyway. It’s almost over, y’all, hang in there.

That’s it for now. The financial activity from the last week of the campaign and the days after the runoff will be reflected in the January reports, and I of course will have them when they’re posted. Until then, go vote if you haven’t already.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 12 Comments

2023 runoff early voting: With two days to go

I changed up the schedule of posting early voting daily totals because I realized that the EV periods for the three years I’m comparing are all different, which makes the comparisons a little screwy. At this point in all three runoffs there are two days of voting left, so let’s do that comparison.


Year    Mail     Early    Total
===============================
2015   22,116   50,257   72,373
2019   14,902   67,531   82,433
2023    9,979   80,939   90,918

Previously posted totals are here, the final daily EV report from 2015 is here, the final daily EV report from 2019 is here, and the totals for 2023 through Sunday are here.

At this point in the race, there had been five days of early voting in 2015, eight days in 2019, and seven days this year. Let’s just roll with that. It’s nice to see that there have finally been some mail ballots received for the runoff, and the in person totals for this year continue to be strong. The average number of people voting in person per day is higher this year than in the previous years as well. Does that mean anything? At least we know it’s (almost) all Houston voters, so I won’t misguess any final totals because of that.

I dunno. On the one hand there’s obviously a lot of activity going on, and on the other hand it all still seems oddly quiet. There have been no shocking reveals, no cringingly dirty attack ads (in the Mayor’s race, anyway), or anything that might make one say “that could be a game changer”. I’ll make some projections about final turnout later in the week. Have you voted yet?

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Weekend link dump for December 3

““Stranger danger” swept America in the ensuing decades, and like any fear, some of its founding myths were just that, myths, like the stories of fiends who hid razor blades in Halloween candy, or Satanic cults that ran daycare centers. This fever broke but not without innocent people being falsely accused or even imprisoned. In the 21st century, these anxieties remained, but a curious thing happened to them: they started to become less about fear and more about angry fantasies of what you’d do to such predators.”

“I first read about the infamous Dr Crippen when I was researching the work of the Scotland Yard detective, Walter Dew, who wrote about his investigation into this notorious homicide in his memoirs. Since then, I’ve given talks on this fascinating case, which includes an exciting cross-Atlantic chase and some fascinating early forensic science. It was also the first time that a murderer was caught by wireless technology.”

“As conservative states wage total culture war, college-educated workers—physicians, teachers, professors, and more—are packing their bags.”

From the Things I Don’t Need To Worry About And Neither Do You department.

“In other words, it’s not true that “we” have lost confidence in science. Republicans have. Democrats actually have more confidence in science these days.”

“The filing was a concrete example of how Trump’s incitement works. It shows how his own language gets parroted directly onto the voice mails and social media accounts of those he targets.”

“Everybody who thinks that the election was stolen or talks about the election being stolen is lying to America. Everyone who makes the argument that January 6 was, you know, an unguided tour of the Capitol is lying to America. Everyone who says that the prisoners who are being prosecuted right now for their involvement in January 6, that they are somehow political prisoners or that they didn’t commit crimes, those folks are lying to America.”

A fond look at The Rocky Horror Picture Show.

“Rupert Murdoch Faces Deposition in Smartmatic’s $2.7 Billion Defamation Case Against Fox”.

“Trump Touts Intel Community He’s Long Besmirched In Bid To Defend Jan. 6 Charges”.

“Let me get this straight. After wailing and moaning for ten months about Hunter Biden and alluding to some vast unproven family conspiracy, after sending Hunter Biden a subpoena to appear and testify, Chairman Comer and the Oversight Republicans now reject his offer to appear before the full Committee and the eyes of the world and to answer any questions that they pose? What an epic humiliation for our colleagues and what a frank confession that they are simply not interested in the facts and have no confidence in their own case or the ability of their own Members to pursue it.”

“Qatar has been the conduit for countries to talk to people they can’t talk to openly and officially—Hamas being one of them.”

“This begs the question: why did Mississippi buck the trends seen in Louisiana, and what drove Presley’s overperformances?”

RIP, Larry Payne, longtime community and social justice activist. Larry was one of those people that knew everyone and was always a pleasure to talk to. He did good work on the Mayor’s Task Force on Police Reform, done while he was fighting cancer. Rest in peace.

“If you love to get in touch with nature by looking at photographs of big cats, birds, reptiles, mammals or ocean life, there’s a photo for you among this year’s shortlist of contenders for the Wildlife Photographer of the Year People’s Choice Award.”

“So what does Elon Musk want with Twitter? The best available guess is that he wants it to fade to black. Musk won’t have to work as much, and his other businesses might benefit.”

“If the company should fail in the coming weeks, it will be one of the largest, most astounding, and most self-inflicted business failures in history.”

Henry Kissinger has died. You know who he is and you know why I didn’t say “RIP”. There’s plenty of worthwhile commentary around if you need the reminder. I also liked TPM’s take on why Kissinger was so infamous.

RIP, Shane MacGowan, singer-songwriter for The Pogues and The Popes. I hope you listened to “Fairytale of New York” yesterday. Now listen to this lovely anecdote about him as told by Kiefer Sutherland.

RIP, Frances Sternhagen, two-time Tony-winning and three-time Emmy-nominated actor, Broadway star known for many memorable guest roles on TV.

Yeesh.

RIP, Sandra Day O’Connor, first female Supreme Court justice. She built a solid legacy as a Justice, which the current bunch of nihilists are busy obliterating, piece by piece.

See ya, Santos.

RIP, Chuck Rosenthal, former Harris County District Attorney.

Posted in Blog stuff | Tagged | 4 Comments

Precinct analysis: At Large #1

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race
Controller’s race
Harris Health bond referendum

We have four runoffs in the At Large races, and they’re all basically D versus R affairs. The HCDP and the Harris County GOP have taken their sides. Let’s look at where the runoff candidates stand, starting with AL1.


Dist    Glenn     JRam    Miles    Baker    Reyes    Wolft
==========================================================
A         868    5,478    2,874    2,431    3,280    1,583
B       1,201    1,594    7,896    2,304    1,559      623
C       1,765    8,879    4,908    3,684   11,480    6,325
D       1,371    2,626   10,024    2,483    2,966    1,612
E       1,418    7,719    3,769    4,177    4,427    1,522
F         628    2,250    2,081    1,505    1,343      595
G       1,195    9,857    3,654    5,266    5,863    2,073
H         817    4,411    2,694    1,497    5,458    1,936
I         730    3,534    3,089    1,222    3,681    1,153
J         461    1,847    1,500    1,044    1,455      620
K         925    3,083    6,668    1,966    2,959    1,452
						
Dist    Glenn     JRam    Miles    Baker    Reyes    Wolft
==========================================================
A       5.26%   33.17%   17.40%   14.72%   19.86%    9.59%
B       7.91%   10.50%   52.03%   15.18%   10.27%    4.10%
C       4.76%   23.97%   13.25%    9.95%   30.99%   17.08%
D       6.50%   12.46%   47.55%   11.78%   14.07%    7.65%
E       6.16%   33.51%   16.36%   18.14%   19.22%    6.61%
F       7.47%   26.78%   24.77%   17.91%   15.98%    7.08%
G       4.28%   35.32%   13.09%   18.87%   21.01%    7.43%
H       4.86%   26.24%   16.02%    8.90%   32.46%   11.51%
I       5.44%   26.36%   23.04%    9.11%   27.45%    8.60%
J       6.66%   26.66%   21.65%   15.07%   21.00%    8.95%
K       5.42%   18.08%   39.10%   11.53%   17.35%    8.51%

I say these races are all D versus R but that’s a little bit fuzzy in AL1, where Melanie Miles ran for a Family Court bench in 2018 as a Republican. Judicial races are a little different, and that was especially the case in the period when the benches were all Republican. Officially speaking, things are all forgiven, hence the HCDP endorsement. The Chron, which had endorsed Conchita Reyes in Round One, endorsed Julian Ramirez in the runoff, saying this was a race between two similar candidates and they preferred him. I would have preferred that they at least unpack this tossed-off sentence from their endorsement a bit more: “Despite his troubling endorsement from the far-right group True Texas Project, Ramirez insists he is no extremist.” In the Year of Our Lord 2023, candidates who are endorsed by extremist groups are themselves presumed to be extremists unless they take particular pains to truly distance themselves from said endorsements. The fact that the Chron didn’t mention what Ramirez’s response to this suggests an uncomfortably large blind spot on their side.

Be that as it may, we’re here for the numbers. Adding in the Fort Bend totals, Ramirez had a tiny lead over Miles in November. Miles led the way in the three Black districts, with room to grow in all three, and has a lot of room to do better in District C. Ramirez led in the three Republican districts, again with room to grow, and he could end up doing better than Miles in District H and I. Given the Democratic nature of Houston municipal elections, that gives the overall advantage to Miles, but it’s not a slam dunk. She finished fourth in C, and trailed third place finisher Reyes everywhere outside the Black districts except for F and J. She shouldn’t take anything for granted.

As for Reyes, she came within less than seven thousand votes of making this and all-Latino runoff. She led in H and I, and most impressively in C. I don’t know how much of a consolation prize it is to say that she ought to be a leading contender for an At Large seat in 2027, but lots of eventual Council members didn’t win on their first try. Nick Hellyar, who was a runnerup in 2019, is trying to do in AL2 what I’m suggesting Reyes try in four years. That’s a long enough time that she may well be on to other things by then, but if not, I hope she keeps that in mind.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Precinct analysis: At Large #1

Fifth Circuit has its book rating lawsuit hearing

It looks like it might have…gone well? I am cautiously hopeful.

Federal appellate judges Wednesday questioned a new Texas law requiring book sellers to rate the explicitness and relevance of sexual references in materials they sell to schools, though it was not clear if the court would allow the regulations to stand.

The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals judges’ inquiries centered on House Bill 900’s definitions of sexual content and community standards. They came during a hearing in a legal challenge brought by book vendors who argue the law is unconstitutionally broad and vague.

The law seeks to keep so-called sexually explicit books off library shelves in the state’s more than 1,200 school systems by calling for the creation of new library standards. It requires school library vendors to assign ratings to books and materials based on the presence of sex depictions or references. And it compels vendors to recall materials already in circulation that are now deemed sexually explicit.

A federal judge barred Texas from enforcing the law in late August. But a panel of 5th Circuit judges blocked that order and the full appellate court, one of the most conservative in the nation, is now considering the overall legal challenge. It is not clear when the appellate court will issue a ruling after Wednesday’s hearing.

[…]

Laura Lee Prather, a lawyer for the plaintiffs, told judges Wednesday that the law would compel book sellers to “apply imprecise standards to promote the state’s preferred message.”

Vendors who participate will be cornered into conforming with the state’s view, plaintiffs argue.

“The book sellers here are not asserting the right to have books reach library shelves — they’re asserting the right to be free from compelled speech and the right to offer and distribute books without being forced to decipher incomprehensible and vague standards,” Prather said. “Unless the injunction is continued and the administrative stay is lifted, irreparable injury in the form of lost First Amendment rights will ensue. … Even if HB 900 is ultimately overturned, this bell cannot be unrung.”

[…]

“Both sexually explicit, sexually relevant — they talk about material that describes, depicts or portrays sexual conduct. How explicit must a reference be in order to qualify as sexual conduct?” a judge asked the state.

“Your honor, that is something that is likely going to be developed,” [state attorney Kateland] Jackson responded. “Again, this law has not had a chance to be developed or implemented yet.”

But vendors face “irreversible” financial, reputational and constitutional damage even as the case shuffles through the courts, Prather said.

The new law will require vendors — some of whom are based in other states — to “somehow opine about what the current community standards are in this state,” Prather said.

Referencing those remarks, a judge asked the state before the end of Wednesday’s hearing “which community’s standards are supposed to govern how a vendor categorizes books?”

“We’re talking about a bill with border-to-border applications, statewide impact. So how do you define the appropriate community?” the judge asked. “Might it be the case ever that what passes community standards muster in El Paso might fail it in Beaumont?”

See here and here for some background. This law is so broad and vague – “we’ll figure it out once we start enforcing it” sure doesn’t sound encouraging to me – that it’s hard for me to see how anyone with even a basic understanding of the First Amendment could find it anything but an abomination. Of course, we are talking about the Fifth Circuit, so adjust your assumptions accordingly. I still feel like maybe the good guys have the edge, though. Gotta be careful about getting my hopes up. Also as a reminder we really need to go hard after the d-bag author of HB900, Jared Patterson, and his henchperson in the Senate, Angela Paxton. People have got to start losing elections over stuff like this, or it will never stop.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Rhonda Hart for CD14

I wish her very well.

Rhonda Hart, who lost her daughter in the 2018 mass shooting at Santa Fe High School, is launching a bid for Congress.

Hart, a Democrat, plans to run against incumbent U.S. Rep. Randy Weber, a Friendswood Republican who has represented the Galveston area in Congress since 2013. His deep-red district stretches from Lake Jackson to Port Arthur and Beaumont.

Hart said she has been seriously considering a run for Congress since last summer, when she met with Weber in his D.C. office to talk about gun violence prevention bills that lawmakers were considering after the May 2022 shooting at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde.

One of the measures included the Kimberly Vaughan Firearm Safe Storage Act, named for Hart’s daughter, that would have required some gun manufacturers to provide buyers with educational materials about safely storing a firearm. The bill also would have raised the minimum age to purchase semi-automatic weapons from 18 to 21, among other changes.

Hart asked Weber for his support. She said the congressman told her he would not vote for the bill and admitted he had not read it.

“I was floored,” Hart, an Army veteran and former school bus driver, said in an interview. “He attended my daughter’s funeral. Her bill was a simple, commonsense measure.”

Weber’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. The congressman voted against the bill, which he called “another attempt by Democrats to strip Americans of their Second Amendment rights.” The measure narrowly passed the House but did not advance in the Senate.

Weber also voted against the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act that Congress passed a few weeks later. That bill, negotiated by Texas’ senior Sen. John Cornyn, implemented modest changes, including stronger background checks for young gun buyers.

“We should be pushing commonsense legislation through Congress rather than going down a slippery slope of government control over our God-given rights,” Weber said at the time. “In my district, we understand that evil people do evil things. Still, you don’t restrict law-abiding citizens from protecting themselves with the weapons of their choice from evil people who do evil things.”

It’ll be an uphill battle for Hart to reach Washington. Donald Trump easily won the 14th Congressional District in the 2020 election, and Weber was re-elected with 70 percent of the vote in 2022. The congressman, in a video announcing his bid for re-election next year, said he will “fiercely fight for the conservative values that have always defined us.”

But Hart said she’s up for the challenge. Over the past five years, she has been an outspoken advocate in Washington and at the Texas Capitol for stricter gun laws and school safety legislation.

I fall irrationally in love with longshot candidates who are also stellar people on the regular; Dayna Steele still has a piece of my heart from 2018. I’m romantic enough to want more good people in public office, and there’s nothing wrong with a little dreaming, regardless of the numbers. I’m also always on the lookout for some combination of issues and qualities – and badness of opponents; Randy Weber was known as one of the bigger jackasses in the Lege when he was there – that suggests the needle can be moved. Looks like I have my candidate for this cycle. Godspeed, Rhonda Hart.

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Saturday video break: The boys of the NYPD Choir still singing “Galway Bay”

I will have a note on his passing in the Sunday linkdump, but for obvious reasons the first thing I thought about upon hearing of Shane MacGowan’s passing was this:

As a part-Irishman, I’m an absolute sucker for a sad song set to a snappy melody. Especially when sung by a band with its own share of drama and strife and also perseverance. Rest in peace, Shane. May you and Kirsty MacColl be kicking up a hell of a fuss up in heaven.

Posted in Music | Tagged , , , | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2023 Harris Health proposition

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race
Controller’s race

The nice thing about analyzing Harris County Proposition A is that I can use the precinct/district guide I got and used for the 2022 election, which is nice and clean and gives me totals that match up as they should. Also, since the city of Houston was nice enough to have bond propositions on the ballot last year, I was able to designate precincts as being in Houston or not in Houston, which means that I could use them in that fashion here. So doing that this is what you get:


Dist       For  Against    For%     Ag%
=======================================
HD126   12,641    6,865  64.81%  35.19%
HD127   15,714   10,321  60.36%  39.64%
HD128    7,794    5,639  58.02%  41.98%
HD129   15,551    8,563  64.49%  35.51%
HD130   13,257    9,485  58.29%  41.71%
HD131   11,700    2,296  83.60%  16.40%
HD132   13,591	  7,598  64.14%  35.86%
HD133   21,134    8,610  71.05%  28.95%
HD134   32,124    8,435  79.20%  20.80%
HD135    8,205    3,114  72.49%  27.51%
HD137    7,343    2,101  77.75%  22.25%
HD138   16,477    7,573  68.51%  31.49%
HD139   15,139    4,093  78.72%  21.28%
HD140    5,059    1,216  80.62%  19.38%
HD141    8,529    1,620  84.04%  15.96%
HD142   10,577    2,452  81.18%  18.82%
HD143    6,374    1,692  79.02%  20.98%
HD144    4,968    1,925  72.07%  27.93%
HD145   18,124    4,636  79.63%  20.37%
HD146   18,377    3,776  82.95%  17.05%
HD147   17,964    3,677  83.01%  16.99%
HD148   10,434    3,746  73.58%  26.42%
HD149    7,718    2,305  77.00%  23.00%
HD150   10,145    6,429  61.21%  38.79%

CC1    104,322   23,658  81.51%  18.49%
CC2     50,940   20,302  71.50%  28.50%
CC3     84,642   48,529  63.56%  36.44%
CC4     69,035   25,678  72.89%  27.11%

Hou    184,306   56,509  76.53%  23.47%
NotHou 124,633   61,658  66.90%  33.10%

I’m not going to go too deep on this because it passed easily and there’s little to no predictive value in it. It’s not like there are going to be more odd-year county-related bond issues in the near future. But since I can’t help but notice these things, I will note that the “For” percentage in Republican State Rep districts ranged from 58% to 71%, while in the Dem districts it ranged from 72% to 84%. If you sorted them by the “For” percentage, all the Dem districts would be above all of the Republican districts. Make of that what you will.

Also, while the non-Houston parts of Harris County supported the bond by a 2-1 margin, you can see the advantage of holding this election in an odd-numbered year, particularly one with a Houston Mayor’s race, as the Houston share of the vote was larger and even more positive. While Harris County is Democratic and I expect it to be strongly so next year, I could easily see this issue ticking down several points from the 72% it got if it had been on next year’s ballot. It would still pass easily, I’m just making the observation. Timing is always a consideration in politics, and that’s very much the case with bond referenda.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Apparently there’s a lawsuit challenging the 2023 constitutional amendment elections

I feel like I’m running out of synonyms for “deranged” and “absurd”.

Lawsuits based on false claims about voting equipment could delay millions of dollars in cost of living increases for retired teachers expected to arrive in January. The lawsuits also threaten to hold up state property tax cuts for homeowners — arguably Republicans’ signature policy achievement this year.

Voters widely approved both policies this fall. Now Texas lawmakers are scrambling in hopes of preventing further delays.

The election contests challenging the results of the November constitutional amendment election were filed in Travis County district courts days after the November election by right-wing activists. They are based on false claims that Texas’ voting equipment is not certified and that voting machines are connected to the internet. Abbott has not certified the results of the election and won’t be able to until the lawsuits are resolved in the courts — which experts say could take weeks or months.

Voter advocates say the election contests are yet another attempt to undermine trust in elections. This time, though, it could have immediate negative implications for millions of Texans.

“I think this is a perfect example of the real impact in peoples’ lives when we delay the certification of our vote because of misinformation,” said Katya Ehresman, voting rights program manager at Common Cause Texas.

At least six lawsuits — filed by residents from Bexar, Llano, Denton, Rains, Brazoria, Liberty, and Atascosa counties who have ties to local promoters of election conspiracies — are challenging the 14 constitutional amendment propositions that were on the ballot in November.

By law, challenges to constitutional amendment elections can’t go to trial earlier than a month after it’s been filed — unless requested by the contestant — and not later than six months after it was filed.

But on Friday, in the middle of Texas’ fourth special legislative session this year, a state senator introduced a bill that would eliminate that requirement and to compress the timeline under which such challenges are heard. The bill was then hastily passed through a committee and sent to the Senate floor, where it passed 23-1. It will now go to the House, which was also in session Friday. Its author, Sen. Bryan Hughes, R-Mineola, said that if it isn’t passed that property tax cuts and extra money for retired teachers would be in jeopardy.

“It’s a big deal,” he said.

In order for the bill to become law, Gov. Greg Abbott would have to add the issue to the special session’s agenda. On Friday, an Abbott aide said he’d consider doing so if both chambers can agree to a bill.

[…]

At least two of the six nearly identical lawsuits were filed by Jarrett Woodward of Bexar County. Woodward has in the past year spoken in front of county commissioners in Kerr, Uvalde, Medina, and Bexar counties trying to persuade them to ditch electronic voting equipment and to hand count ballots instead.

In the lawsuits, Woodward argues the voting equipment used in the Nov. 7 election was not properly certified and that “the ballot marking devices similar to those that Contestants were forced to use for voting in 2023 contain multiple severe security flaws including the opportunity to install malicious software locally or remotely.”

Voting machines used in Texas by vendors ES&S and Hart InterCivic have been certified by the Texas Secretary of State and the U.S. Election Assistance Commission. Neither the machines used to cast ballots nor the machines used to count ballots have the capability to connect to the internet. The process to certify election equipment in Texas is robust: After vendors submit an application for certification, state officials physically examine the equipment and test its accuracy.

Last year, Woodward and others filed similar lawsuits against multiple county officials across the state for using voting equipment they say is not certified; at least seven were dismissed and the others have yet to succeed. Similar unfounded claims have been made in other states across the country.

See here for a reminder about what the amendments were, and here for a reminder of how mind-bendingly stupid the idea of hand-counting ballots is. Maybe the Lege will speed up this process in the dying days of the latest special session, I have no idea. But I do know who owns the reason for the need to deal with this at all.

The bill in question, by the way, is SB6. The record vote was not available when I looked, but I’d bet you a dollar the one vote against was from that walking spittoon Bob Hall.

Posted in Election 2023, Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 6 Comments

Dodo update

Everyone needs a home.

“Finding a dodo bird…”

After years of working on bringing back one of the most popular extinct animals — the dodo — Colossal Biosciences has found a home for its bird in Mauritius in a new partnership with the Mauritian Wildlife Foundation.

The Dallas-based company has previously announced it’s trying to wake the Tasmanian tiger and woolly mammoth from their eternal slumber. Colossal’s progress on the dodo would lead the bird back to its native home in East Africa and potentially give the company the power to save other soon-to-be extinct species, said Ben Lamm, co-founder and CEO of Colossal Biosciences.

“Our goal with all the species we work on is to bring them back into their natural habitat,” Lamm said. “This endorsement and collaboration from the Mauritian Wildlife is a big testament to the incredible work that not only our scientific teams are doing to bring back the dodo but the team to successfully wild them back into their natural habitats.”

Though Colossal still doesn’t have a timetable for the dodo’s return, its comeback could turn the tides for birds like the pink pigeon which are close to meeting the same fate, Matt James, Colossal’s chief animal officer, said.

The pink pigeon, a 15-inch tall herbivorous bird native to Mauritius, is also facing extinction due to habitat degradation, diseases and inbreeding, according to the Natural History Museum.

“The dodo is going to help the pink pigeon,” he said. “As we develop these Colossal de-extinction programs, we’re identifying species that would benefit directly from those technologies. All the technologies that we’re going to develop around the dodo have become tools that we can start to apply to the pink pigeon and other pigeon conservation projects.”

[…]

Lamm said he expects Colossal to put members of its team in Mauritius next year to work with the Mauritius Wildlife Foundation and the local government.

The collaboration between Mauritius and Colossal may help dispel some of the Jurassic Park comparisons the company has received in the past, Lamm said.

“We’ve heard all of those comments over the years,” Lamm said. “But we have an opportunity to do it for good reasons because when you remove an animal from an ecosystem, that ecological void is felt. We’re not out to build things that shouldn’t exist. We’re focused on undoing the sins of the past and bringing back species to their native homes that mankind had a role in its demise.”

See here and here for some background. On the one hand, I have no idea how seriously to take all of this. The science is, let’s just say “razor’s edge”, and the claims are more than a little grandiose. There are also questions about funding and no clear timeline for any actual work product. Oh, and then there’s the Jurassic Park of it all, which I’m glad to see that Colossal Biosciences is willing to acknowledge. There’s a lot going on here. On the other hand, the stated goals seen quite worthwhile, and it all sounds cool as hell. I’m willing to see where it all goes. The Star-Telegram has more.

Posted in Technology, science, and math | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Paxton sues Pfizer for not ending the COVID pandemic quickly enough

What the actual fuck?

A crook any way you look

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton accused drugmaker Pfizer of fear-mongering and lies about the effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine, which the company insinuated would end the pandemic, according to a lawsuit Paxton announced Thursday.

“In a nutshell, Pfizer deceived the public,” reads the 54-page lawsuit, filed in a Lubbock state district court.

The lawsuit alleges Pfizer “engaged in false, deceptive, and misleading acts and practices by making unsupported claims regarding the company’s COVID-19 vaccine in violation of the Texas Deceptive Trade Practices Act.”

Pfizer was the first drugmaker to get the federal government’s emergency approval for the vaccine in late 2020, less than a year after the first infection was detected in the U.S.

The company has since won full approval for the use of its vaccine from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

Also, the pandemic has since been declared over.

But the lawsuit comes at a time when Texas conservatives are pushing bans on COVID-19 vaccine mandates and trumpeting other anti-vaccine positions that are espoused by their grassroots supporters in the months leading up to election season.

Paxton’s arguments, many of them familiar tropes among the anti-vaccine and COVID-19 denial crowd, hinge on the fact that the pandemic did not end soon enough — even though Pfizer officials never promised an end date to the health threat.

The drugmaker, he argues, claimed its vaccine was 95% effective but did not manage to end the pandemic within a year after being introduced.

“Contrary to Pfizer’s public statements, however, the pandemic did not end; it got worse. More Americans died in 2021, with Pfizer’s vaccine available, than in 2020, the first year of the pandemic,” the lawsuit says. “This, in spite of the fact that the vast majority of Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine, with most taking Pfizer’s.”

But like other portions of Paxton’s lawsuit, that’s a statement that is technically true, but easily manipulated, experts say. Other assertions made in the lawsuit filing, they argue, are completely unsubstantiated, such as one claiming that vaccinated people were more likely to die from COVID-19, which Texas health data disputes.

[…]

But while facts and science remain on the side of COVID-19 vaccine supporters, who include experts in some of the most influential medical organizations across the world, the lawsuit still has political ramifications, said Terri Burke, executive director of The Immunization Partnership in Houston.

“What this really does is it’s just another attempt to erode confidence in all vaccines,” Burke said.

Paxton argues in the lawsuit that death rates were higher in some areas among vaccinated people than among unvaccinated people, but that’s not true for the overall rate in Texas.

The state’s own Department of State Health Services COVID-19 death tracker shows that as of April, the COVID death rate for fully vaccinated Texans is 12 times lower than that of unvaccinated Texans.

“These arguments have been around for a long time, and there are fact checks” that prove them wrong, Burke said. “This lawsuit and the rhetoric behind it are not going to make us safer. … It’s performative politics, as usual.”

I got nothing. We do not live on the same planet as this guy. I don’t know what else to say. The Chron has more.

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged , , , , , , , | 5 Comments

HISD’s continued enrollment decline

It’s not great.

Houston ISD saw its steepest enrollment decline this year since the first full school year of the pandemic, losing roughly 6,000 students, according to preliminary data obtained by the Houston Landing.

Some 183,884 students now attend HISD schools, down from 189,934 in 2022-23.

The count has not been vetted by the Texas Education Agency, but was provided to the Landing by HISD in response to a public records request. The number represents the total students present on “snapshot” day, the last Friday in October each year, when Texas school districts tally their official enrollment.

The 3-percent drop in students could spell a reduction in state funding next year at a time when questions already are swirling over HISD’s fiscal future.

The loss of students also increases the likelihood of upcoming school closures and consolidations, a possibility HISD Superintendent Mike Miles already has mentioned.

HISD did not provide comments in response to questions from the Landing.

Texas’ largest district has bled students each of the last four years and lost roughly 32,200 students since 2016-17, when enrollment peaked at about 216,100.

Apart from 2020-21 during the pandemic, this year’s enrollment losses represent the most drastic dropoff in the last 10 years.

The decrease in students likely represents a combination of families relocating to other districts, homeschooling and enrolling in private or charter schools. TEA spokesman Jake Kobersky said his agency has seen anecdotal evidence of more students homeschooling or attending private schools in recent years.

Kobersky wrote in an email that it is “likely too early to tell” whether the TEA’s final enrollment number for HISD, which will be released in several months, will differ significantly from the preliminary snapshot day count obtained by the Landing.

This year’s 183,884 enrollment level is slightly higher than early estimates produced by Miles that about 182,000 students were attending HISD. However, it is typical that snapshot day enrollment would notch above daily attendance levels, because schools make extra efforts to lure students to campus that day.

Whether families’ decisions had to do with the rapid changes to HISD this year under state-appointed leadership remains unknown.

Campus-by-campus enrollment counts for this school year have not yet been released. However, early data reported by the Landing in October showed schools overhauled under Miles’ model saw larger attendance dips to start the school year than other campuses.

Regardless of which campuses saw the steepest student losses, the entire district is likely to feel the fiscal fallout of the enrollment changes. A large portion of HISD’s cash comes from the state, which bases its funding level on the average number of students attending district schools. Texas provides districts $6,160 base funding per student, a rate that has not changed since 2019. The state sends additional dollars to districts based on the number of special education students, English learners and other factors.

A couple things to note. This problem is not unique to Houston – San Antonio and Fort Worth, among others, are facing similar issues. Demography is also part of the problem – there are fewer children in HISD’s geographic area. There are things that HISD can do to try to mitigate some of this, and I know that existing Trustees were at least talking about that. My concern is that I don’t see any evidence of this being on the radar right now. Mike Miles doesn’t care about anything that he doesn’t see as part of his mandate, and the Board of Managers doesn’t do anything outside of what Miles tells them to do. I’ve been concerned that Miles’ policies will drive people out of HISD schools, but even if I’m wrong about that it doesn’t look like Miles and the BoM will pay any attention to this issue, which means that the problem will likely be worse and in a tougher spot to start addressing by the time we get control back. And in the meantime, Miles will get to decide about which schools should be closed or consolidated to accommodate declining attendance. So yeah, not great.

Posted in School days | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

DPS ordered again to release Uvalde public records

Good, though I’m a bit confused about the timing.

A Travis County state district judge has ordered the Department of Public safety to release law enforcement records related to the 2022 school shooting in Uvalde, more than a year after a consortium of news organizations sued for access.

261st Civil District Court Judge Daniela Deseta Lyttle ordered DPS to fulfill 28 records requests filed by the news organizations, which include The Texas Tribune and ProPublica, subject to redactions such as personal information of police officers and blurring the faces of minor victims in crime scene photographs.

The files would shed light on the disastrous police response that day, in which officers waited more than an hour to confront the shooter after learning he had an AR-15 style rifle.

Lyttle issued a preliminary order in June; the one issued Tuesday is the final judgment. It requires DPS to provide the records sought within 20 days, unless the state police agency appeals the ruling.

“DPS promised to disclose the results of this investigation once it was completed,” said Laura Prather, a media law attorney with Haynes Boone who represents the news organizations. “It was completed in February and they still haven’t provided any answers to these families.”

DPS did not return a request for comment on Thursday.

Prather said an appeal would likely limit the ability of victims’ families to file federal lawsuits alleging that police had committed civil rights violations. The statute of limitations on those complaints, formally called Section 1983 claims, is two years.

“It prevents (families) from having the evidence they need,” Prather said.

The state police agency had previously argued that releasing records could interfere with ongoing investigations into the shooting, though DPS said it had completed its initial report on the shooting and provided it to the Uvalde County district attorney.

See here for the background. I guess I don’t understand why the preliminary order wasn’t sufficient to either force the release of the documents or force DPS to file an appeal at that time. It would have been nice for the final judgment to come out more quickly than this did, but I can understand why the judge wanted to take the time with it. But then that gets back to my original question. It boggles my mind that DPS has been able to stonewall like this for so long, but here we are.

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Precinct analysis: 2023 Controller’s race

PREVIOUSLY:

Mayor’s race

I got in a groove and took what I learned from mucking around with the Mayor’s race data and was able to clean up the same for the Controller’s race in relatively short order. As you’ll see, the story the data tells is as least as straightforward.


Dist  Hollins  Sanchez   Martin   Nobles
========================================
A       6,525    6,288    2,628    2,039
B       9,225    1,927    1,157    3,401
C      20,856    9,753    4,948    4,580
D      13,316    3,288    1,765    3,575
E       6,920    5,611   11,638    2,331
F       3,452    2,653    1,415    1,285
G      10,460   13,046    4,459    2,514
H       7,232    5,571    1,683    1,967
I       6,313    4,571    1,326    1,694
J       3,019    2,505    1,033      857
K       9,993    3,915    1,665	   2,407


Dist  Hollins  Sanchez   Martin   Nobles
========================================
A      37.33%   35.97%   15.03%   11.66%
B      58.72%   12.27%    7.36%   21.65%
C      51.96%   24.30%   12.33%   11.41%
D      60.68%   14.98%    8.04%   16.29%
E      26.11%   21.17%   43.92%    8.80%
F      39.20%   30.13%   16.07%   14.59%
G      34.32%   42.80%   14.63%    8.25%
H      43.96%   33.86%   10.23%   11.96%
I      45.40%   32.88%    9.54%   12.18%
J      40.72%   33.79%   13.93%   11.56%
K      55.58%   21.77%    9.26%   13.39%

Chris Hollins came close to hitting fifty percent on Election Day, ultimately landing just above 45% and leading Orlando Sanchez by eighteen points. That makes his task much easier than either Mayoral contender, and it’s not hard to see most of Shannan Nobles’ voters shifting to him for the runoff. Hollins already did pretty well in Districts B, D, and K, especially given that he was splitting the Black vote with Nobles. He has room to grow, and he already started with a strong lead.

You know how the Chronicle runs “What Houston looked like 30 years ago” stories on its homepage? I feel like we could start seeing old Orlando Sanchez campaign signs in the photos accompanying those stories. Dude’s been around forever, and there’s no question that helps him in these elections. The problem from a runoff perspective is that outside of Dave Martin’s District E, he already mostly dominated the Republican vote in November. Martin did get about 7K more votes than Nobles, so as far as that goes if his voters mostly transfer over that will be a net positive for Sanchez. The problem is that Hollins led by 40K votes in November. It’s going to take a lot more than that.

It’s not always easy to tell what is cause and what is effect in runoff situations. While I believe that Mayoral races drive turnout, we know that some people will show up primarily because of some other candidate, and from there they may affect the other runoffs. We can say that having Hollins on the ballot will help Sheila Jackson Lee, but we can also say that having both John Whitmire and SJL on the ballot will help Hollins. However you look at it, Hollins is in a solid position.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Cruise and Houston

An interesting overview of the currently-on-pause driverless taxi service in our town.

A driverless Cruise car sits in traffic on Austin Street in downtown Houston on Friday, Sept. 22, 2023. Photo: Jay R. Jordan/Axios

The nationwide pause included Houston and Austin. However, no Texas or local entity required Cruise to take its vehicles off the road because they legally could not.

Senate Bill 2205, passed in 2017, allows only the Texas Department of Public Safety to regulate autonomous vehicles, or AVs. It explicitly bars other state agencies and subdivisions of the state from making regulations specific to autonomous vehicles.

That means Houston, one of America’s most automobile-dependent cities, has no means of regulating the rollout of AVs on its streets.

“We know that this is going to be led by industry,” said Jesse Bounds, the mayor’s director of Innovation. “We are going to adapt to whatever private operators do in this case.”

[…]

Before Cruise, the Metropolitan Transit Authority of Harris County launched its own autonomous vehicles project in 2019 on Texas Southern University’s campus. That was the first phase of a plan to bring driverless service, with future plans that include an Americans with Disabilities Act-compliant “Shuttle of the Future.”

While METRO’s plans hit a snag during the pandemic, its board recently modified and approved contracts with autonomous car technology companies to get back on track.

“Should automated vehicles have to adapt to our world? Or should we have to adapt to their world?”

University of South Carolina law professor Bryant Walker Smith, who has worked around AV issues, proposed that question as a key point of policy around autonomous vehicles.

“Like any new technology, automated driving is going to solve some problems and create new problems,” Smith said.

Nuro and Cruise point to traffic safety and reduced emissions as primary motivators for their work. In a city with a high number of traffic deaths like Houston, that proposition was appealing.

The state law played a part, too. In an email, Stevens said SB 2205 “provided a clear regulatory framework” around AVs.

“That leadership signaled the state’s commitment to innovation, like AV goods delivery, and its potential to improve safety on Texas roads and support the state and region’s economic growth,” Stevens wrote.

For Bounds and the city of Houston, autonomous vehicles should fit into Houston rather than the city accommodating AVs. For example, Cruise initially did not want anyone from the city entering their vehicles and switching them into manual mode. After an incident in San Francisco, however, Cruise was willing to change that policy to allow first responders emergency access to move the vehicle, and generally has been receptive to feedback and questions about protocol.

“So, you know, they’ve been good partners in that regard,” [Jesse Bounds, the mayor’s director of Innovation] said.

He is aware the city has limited regulatory power under state law, and would have to work through state and federal channels. Bounds pointed again to San Francisco. In response to incidents involving Cruise vehicles, the city modified its comments to the NHTSA to be more critical of the company.

“We’ve got the infrastructure set up, the policies and procedures set up to where we can, if it becomes a problem, we can quantify it and then work through the appropriate channels to rectify it,” Bounds said.

At the state level, the appropriate channel would be the Texas Department of Public Safety. The agency did not respond to multiple requests for interviews.

See here and here for some background on the pause, and here for more on the first days of Cruise in Houston, including that Montrose incident. The story goes into how HPD is dealing with the likes of Cruise, the current state of that Metro/TSU shuttle that I had totally forgotten about, and more. A lot of things will be back in action once those cars are.

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Crime continues to decline in Houston

Noted for the record. Don’t let it get in the way of any campaigns.

Houston was part of a nationwide decline in most crime statistics in major cities, leading one crime data analyst to say the trend shows that it is nearly impossible to conclude whether one department is doing better at law enforcement than another.

A new report released Friday from the Major Cities Chiefs Association reinforces crime data from the Houston Police Department. Between 2022 and 2023, reported homicides have declined in Houston from 331 to 268; robberies from 5,512 to 4,970 and aggravated assaults from 13,626 to 12,523, according to the report. The comparison is from Jan. 1 to Sept. 30 of both years.

The city’s numbers mirror a nationwide decrease across the board, according to data from the report. Across the country, homicides declined from 6,635 to 5,927; robberies from 79,591 to 77,603; and aggravated assaults from 218,906 to 211,380, according to data from 69 responding agencies.

“This likely reflects larger national trends that are evident in the 2022 Uniform Crime Report data, that have continued to accelerate in 2023,” said Jeff Asher, a New Orleans-based criminologist and cofounder of AH Datalytics.

Police Chief Troy Finner in October told the city council that violent and nonviolent crimes were down across Houston, crediting an increase in federal prosecution for gang violence had helped cause some of the decline. Mayor Sylvester Turner in that meeting said he was frustrated at Houston’s crime-related perception, given the decline.

Asher said it’s tough to prove that a single program or new strategy deserves credit for a big drop.

One could say the same about the increase that preceded it. This is not to say that there aren’t smart strategies for dealing with crime, and less-smart strategies. Just that what we often get is a lot of blunt force rhetoric that responds to how people feel about crime, which usually doesn’t lead to anything productive. I’m just noting this for context when the next taking credit/casting blame cycle about crime begins.

Posted in Crime and Punishment | Tagged , , , , , , , | 1 Comment

Texas blog roundup for the week of November 27

The Texas Progressive Alliance hopes everyone has recovered from their tryptophan naps as it brings you this week’s roundup.

Continue reading

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SCOTx has its abortion case hearing

Here we go.

The Supreme Court of Texas heard arguments Tuesday in a landmark case that could impact how the state’s abortion laws apply to medically complicated pregnancies.

In August, state District Judge Jessica Mangrum ruled that the near-total abortion ban cannot be enforced in cases involving complicated pregnancies, including lethal fetal diagnoses. The state immediately appealed that ruling, putting it on hold.

Texas law allows abortions only when it is necessary to save the life of the pregnant patient. But this lawsuit, filed by the Center for Reproductive Rights in March, claims that doctors are unsure when the medical exception applies, resulting in delayed or denied care.

“No one knows what [the exception] means and the state won’t tell us,” Molly Duane, senior attorney for the Center for Reproductive Rights, told the justices Tuesday.

The state argues the judge went too far in her injunction by reading exceptions into the law beyond what the Legislature intended.

“What the legislature has done is chosen to value unborn life and prohibit abortion in all circumstances, unless that life is going to conflict with the life of the mother,” said assistant attorney general Beth Klusmann. “The legislature has set the bar high, but there is nothing unconstitutional in their decision to do so.”

Justice Jimmy Blacklock questioned Duane on the “capaciousness” of the injunction, asking whether this might allow abortions as a result of common pregnancy complications like high blood pressure.

“It seems to me, looking at the case you presented and the injunction that was granted, that this very well could open the door far more widely than you’re acknowledging,” he said.

Duane said the injunction would only apply to emergent medical conditions that could become critical or life-threatening if not treated. But she acknowledged that Mangrum’s ruling is “doing more work than normal,” because “legislators don’t usually write laws that people who are regulated by those laws simply do not understand.”

[…]

At the center of Tuesday’s hearing was the question of standing, or whether the plaintiffs have the legal right to bring this suit. The state has argued that because these women are not actively seeking abortions at the moment, clarifying the law would not address their claims.

Justice Jeff Boyd seemed aghast at that argument.

“Your position is that, in order to seek the kind of clarity that these plaintiffs are seeking, you have to have a woman who is pregnant, who has some health condition that she believes places her life at risk or impairment to a major bodily function, but her doctor says, ‘I don’t think it does,’” he said. “And she has to then sue the doctor, and maybe the attorney general, at that point, and then she would have standing and sovereign immunity would be waived?”

Klusmann said that wasn’t the only situation that would generate standing, but “you would at least then know that the law is the problem, and not the doctor.”

“Some of these women appear to have fallen within these exceptions but their doctors still said no,” she said. “That’s not the fault of the law.”

“That’s what gives rise to the need for clarity,” Boyd said, exasperated.

Several of the justices asked Duane why the Center for Reproductive Rights did not bring a wider suit, challenging the law on the grounds that it is too vague to be properly enforced.

“Generally, a vagueness challenge is a facial challenge to the statute, to take down the entire statute,” Duane said after the hearing. “So if that’s what the court wants us to do, we’re happy to do it.”

See here, here, and here for some background. The Chron struck a somewhat negative note.

Several of the Texas Supreme Court’s Republican justices appeared hesitant on Tuesday to clarify an emergency exception in the state’s abortion ban despite claims from nearly two dozen women that they were forced to continue medically dangerous pregnancies.

“Our job is to decide cases, not to elaborate and expand laws in order to make them easier to understand or enforce,” Justice Brett Busby said.

[…]

Molly Duane, a Center for Reproductive Rights lawyer, said the state’s interpretation of standing would require that a woman “needs to have blood or amniotic fluid dripping down their leg before they can come to court.”

The plaintiffs include “patients who are trying to get pregnant now and pregnancy complications are likely to occur,” she said.

Justice Evan Young pushed back, comparing doctors to police officers who have to work out how to comply with the state constitution in use-of-force cases.

“Here we have a statement in the statute that describes the risk of death or the serious risk to a substantial bodily function — how is that so much more nebulous than the entire body of constitutional law that law enforcement has to apply?” Young said.

Duane said the situations are not similar at all, as police officers have qualified immunity against being sued.

Klusmann said the problem is with doctors, not the law. The ban was not written with the intention of discriminating based on sex, the state has said in filings, and abortion care “is not ordinary medical treatment” because “it involves potential life.”

“We’re just trying to identify when it’s appropriate to end the life of an unborn child, and the Legislature has set the bar high,” Klusmann said. “But there’s nothing unconstitutional about their decision to do so.”

Busby noted the cases might have made more sense as medical negligence suits against the doctors.

Duane said her clients don’t blame their doctors for acting within the constraints of the law. Many physicians and hospitals have feared immediately intervening in emergency cases even when there is a clear danger, given the state’s stiff penalties for anyone who violates the ban.

[…]

After the arguments on Tuesday, Duane told reporters she was “optimistic that the court heard us, heard them (the plaintiffs) and saw them.” But if the justices fail to intervene, Texans “will be in the exact same spot that we are today” where physicians remain constrained and patients suffer the consequences.

“While I was sitting in the courtroom, my telephone rang,” Duane said. “It was a call from another patient. This is real. It is happening every single day, and it is not going to stop until someone with accountability in this state can put a stop to it.”

Either that or we finally get a federal law that protects abortion rights. Gonna need to have some positive outcomes in 2024 for that. Might be nice to center some campaigns on that possibility. The Trib story suggests we can expect a ruling by June. CBS News and ABC News have more.

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Whitmire and SJL on the HISD mess

As we know, the Mayor has basically no direct influence on HISD, but it’s an issue people care about and the Mayor can certainly make it a point of focus. So what do our two Mayoral runoff candidates have to say about HISD?

Mayoral candidates state Sen. John Whitmire and U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee have struck different tones on how to approach relations with state-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles and the Board of Managers that replaced the democratically elected Board of Trustees. Both, however, said they would like to use their office to improve schools and return HISD to local control and would be willing to work with district leaders to achieve those goals.

Here’s more on what the candidates had to say on the HISD takeover and how they would use their office to impact public schools.

Whitmire, the leading vote-getter in the general mayoral election earlier this month, has offered fewer public comments about HISD since filing an eleventh-hour bill, which ultimately failed, in March to stave off the takeover. But the longtime state senator said he has been active behind the scenes, meeting separately with both Miles and Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath to offer his opinions and lend his assistance.

Opening clear lines of communication between the mayor’s office and HISD would be the first step in establishing a partnership with the district, Whitmire said. If elected mayor, he said he would appoint an education adviser to brief him regularly on the school district and its impact on the city.

He characterized Mayor Sylvester Turner’s reluctance to work with Miles as unproductive and promised that he would communicate directly with school leaders rather than “shout from a distance.” Turner’s office declined to respond to that accusation.

“The bottom line is the takeover has taken place, and it’s shameful to politicize that, politicize children’s education,” Whitmire said. “Let’s support the students, support the administration that has got the children’s best interests at heart, and go forward.”

[…]

In addition to appointing an education adviser to his staff, Whitmire also said he would “assist (HISD) where possible with resources, talent and community input.”

“As HISD goes is how Houston goes. We have too many citizens that work in Houston and live in the suburbs, often driven by schools. I want people to work and live in Houston and have education choices that include strong public schools,” Whitmire said.

See here for more on the aforementioned bill; as I expected, neither it nor any of the similar bills got as much as a committee hearing. All of this is on brand for Whitmire, who has leaned into his connections and legislative record throughout the campaign, which as noted has its pros and cons as a strategy. It’s as likely to work as any other approach might, which is the polite way of restating the fact that the Mayor has basically no direct influence here. To the extent that it is viable, Whitmire is as good as it gets at giving it a go.

(I do not hold Whitmire’s vote on the original bill that led to the takeover against him. As the article notes, plenty of other Dems also voted for it, on the now obviously naive view that it wouldn’t come to this. I blame Harold Dutton, who no doubt helped sell this bill to his colleagues. Let that be a very painful lesson for a lot of people.)

Jackson Lee, given her capacity as a federal representative rather than a state legislator, was not directly involved with the takeover but has been one of its strongest critics, speaking at TEA forums and leading rallies against the takeover. In March, the congresswoman said she filed a federal complaint to halt the takeover, though it has not resulted in any action thus far. The education bureau did not respond to a request for an update on the status of the complaint. The congresswoman said it is still under review.

Jackson Lee’s outspokenness has earned her the endorsement of the Houston Federation of Teachers, which has emerged as one of Miles’ fiercest opponents since he was appointed to his post. The congresswoman said she would use the “bully pulpit” afforded to the mayor to advocate for a return to local control, higher teacher salaries and public-private partnerships for tutoring and internet access.

“In order to be an ‘education mayor,’ you have to be attentive. I think it’s important that I work with parents, collaborate with PTOs … listen to what parents are saying and find ways for the city to be collaborative,” Jackson Lee said.

[…]

Jackson Lee has also promised to hire at least one full-time staffer to handle issues related to education. She said she would use her position to lobby for philanthropic involvement in schools and improve public safety, parks and recreation and housing opportunities for public school students and their families.

Jackson Lee has criticized some aspects of Miles’ leadership, including the decision to convert libraries in dozens of schools with mostly Black and brown students into “Team Centers” used partially for discipline. But the congresswoman said she would “reserve judgment” on his performance until he has been given more time to show results.

Like Whitmire, Jackson Lee said she would be willing to work with Miles and the HISD administration if elected mayor. She has also already spoken with Miles about the direction of HISD and described the conversations as “professional.”

“I’m opposed to the takeover. I’m not opposed to the success of our children,” Jackson Lee said.

See here and here for more on the federal complaint and SJL’s actions regarding it. All this is also on brand for her. If the platonic ideal outcome of the Whitmire approach is for the Mikes Morath and Miles to see reason and dial some stuff back and give HISD stakeholders more of a direct say in what happens while the state is still in charge, the same for the SJL approach is the Mikes getting whipsawed into backing down, and a riled-up electorate voting at least some of their current enablers out of office. One’s view of the odds of success for each approach is likely correlated with one’s own view of the approach. The choices are clear enough.

Posted in Election 2023 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment