Tag Archives: Election 2012

Still ridiculously early poll: Biden leads Trump by four

Posted on June 7, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Encouraging, but the usual caveats apply. President Donald Trump is locked in too-close-to-call races with any one of seven top Democratic challengers in the 2020 presidential race in Texas, where former Vice President Joseph Biden has 48 percent to President … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Mitt Romney, Pete Buttigieg, polls, President, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

Two for HD134

Posted on May 21, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Local attorney and business owner Ruby Powers announced on Thursday that she is running to represent District 134 in the Texas House of Representatives. “Our district deserves a state representative who will ensure that families can send … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Ann Johnson, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, HD134, Ruby Powers, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 1 Comment

Lineup shuffling at the DA’s office

Posted on May 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

This was a surprise. Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg’s top lieutenant is out the door after the latest staffing shake-up at an office already plagued by high turnover and ongoing retention problems. Tom Berg, a former defense attorney who … Continue reading →

Posted in Crime and Punishment | Tagged David Mitcham, District Attorney, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Hurricane Harvey, Kim Ogg, Pat Lykos, Tom Berg | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: 2018 SBOE

Posted on April 4, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

There are 15 State Board of Education positions, currently divided 10 GOP to 5 Dem. They’re bigger than State Senate and Congressional districts but no one raises any money for them so they’re basically decided by partisan turnout. As with … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Bell County, Beto O'Rourke, Debby Kerner, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michelle Palmer, precinct analysis, redistricting, SBOE, Texas, Travis County, Williamson County | 1 Comment

Precinct analysis: 2018 State House

Posted on March 26, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Beto O’Rourke won 76 State House districts. Out of 150. Which is a majority. Let me say that again so it can fully sink in. BETO O’ROURKE WON 76 STATE HOUSE DISTRICTS. Remember that after the 2016 election, Democrats held … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Bill Zedler, Brad Buckley, Craig Eiland, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, GD31, Greg Abbott, HD102, HD105, HD106, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD117, HD121, HD122, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD14, HD23, HD26, HD28, HD29, HD32, HD34, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD52, HD54, HD64, HD65, HD66, HD67, HD74, HD84, HD85, HD89, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, Hillary Clinton, Jimmie Don Aycock, JM Lozano, Joe Straus, Jonathan Stickland, Matt Krause, precinct analysis, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, Todd Hunter | 11 Comments

Precinct analysis: 2018 State Senate

Posted on March 18, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

The day I look forward to since November has finally arrived – all the data from the last election is now available on the Texas Legislative Council webpage. You know what that means: It’s statewide precinct analysis time! Let’s start … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Angela Paxton, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Charles Schwertner, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Hillary Clinton, Joan Huffman, Justin Nelson, Lupe Valdez, Mark Phariss, Mike Collier, Pete Flores, precinct analysis, Roman McAllen, SD02, SD05, SD07, SD08, SD09, SD10, SD11, SD12, SD16, SD17, SD19, SD25, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

Ridiculously early Quinnipiac poll: Trump has a small lead

Posted on March 1, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Consider this to be for entertainment purposes only. In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Elizabeth Warren, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Julian Castro, Kamala Harris, Mitt Romney, polls, President, Senate, Texas | 22 Comments

Trying again to primary Cuellar

Posted on January 14, 2019 by Charles Kuffner

Good luck. It’s not going to be easy. A grass-roots Democratic group that helped power the upset victory of Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., has identified a Texas Democrat as its first target ahead of the 2020 congressional primaries — but … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Al Green, Beto O'Rourke, CD16, CD28, CD29, Chris Bell, Ciro Rodriguez, Congress, Craig Washington, Democratic primary, Election 1994, Election 1996, Election 2004, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gene Green, Greg Laughlin, Henry Cuellar, John Ratcliffe, Justice Democrats, Ralph Hall, Ron Paul, Sheila Jackson Lee, Silvestre Reyes, Texas | 1 Comment

The Harris County GOP has not hit bottom yet

Posted on December 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I have four thing to say about this. Drubbed. Shellacked. Whooped. Walloped. Routed. However you want to describe November’s midterm election, it was disastrous for Harris County Republicans. They were swept from the remaining countywide posts they held — the other shoe … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, CD02, CD07, CD10, CD22, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Dan Crenshaw, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Harris County, HCDE, HD126, HD129, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, HD150, Jack Morman, Justice of the Peace, Lizzie FLetcher, Paul Simpson, redistricting, Republican Party, Steve Radack, straight ticket voting, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 21 Comments

Precinct analysis: Beto in the city

Posted on December 17, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Last week I got an email from Christopher Busby, who is a regular commenter here. He had previously asked about doing an analysis of Beto O’Rourke’s performance in Houston by City Council district. I told him that the canvass data … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Christopher Busby, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2018, guest post, Harris County, Houston, Houston City Council, Senate | 9 Comments

How Dems took Hays County

Posted on December 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Three cheers for Texas State University. As the dust settles after last week’s election, the political identity of Hays County hangs in the balance: Is it red or blue? The rapidly growing Central Texas suburban county — Texas’ 22nd-largest by … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Bastrop County, Beto O'Rourke, demography, early voting, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Hays County, lawsuit, Ted Cruz, Texas, Texas Civil Rights Project, Texas State University, Travis County, turnout | 1 Comment

Who might be next to retire from Congress?

Posted on December 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

We may see some more exits in the coming years, some voluntary and some not. Retirement talk is generally speculative until an incumbent makes an official announcement. But many Republican operatives bet that U.S. Rep. Mac Thornberry, the most senior … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018, Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD04, CD10, CD13, CD14, CD15, CD16, CD19, CD20, CD22, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD35, CD36, Congress, Democratic primary, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Joaquin Castro, John Carter, John Ratcliffe, Kenny Marchant, Lloyd Doggett, Mac Thornberry, Mike McCaul, Pete Olson, Randy Neugebauer, Randy Weber, redistricting, Roger Williams, Ruben Hinojosa, Senate, Silvestre Reyes, Steve Stockman, Texas | 1 Comment

Still more about straight ticket voting

Posted on November 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

And I’m still complaining about how the subject is being approached and discussed. Fewer than half of Texans voted straight ticket in 1998, according to research by Austin Community College political scientist Stefan Haag, but that has jumped to close … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2018, Harris County, HCC, HISD, Houston, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

So you want to run for something in 2020

Posted on November 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

You’re an ambitious Democrat in Harris County. You saw what happened these last two elections, and you think it’s your time to step up and run for office. What are your options that don’t involved primarying a Democratic incumbent? 1. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, CD02, CD10, CD22, Congress, Constable, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dan Crenshaw, Democratic primary, Don Sumners, Donna Bahorich, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, First Court of Appeals, Harris County, Harris County Attorney, HCDE, HD126, HD129, HD133, HD138, HD150, John Cornyn, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Larry Taylor, Michael Wolfe, SBOE, SD11, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas, Todd Litton, Vince Ryan | 14 Comments

On straight tickets and undervotes

Posted on November 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

As we know, straight ticket voting in Texas is now officially a thing of the past. It will not be an option in 2020, the next time there will be partisan elections. Thanks to the success of Democratic candidates in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2002, Election 2004, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

The decline and fall of the Republican Party in Harris County

Posted on November 21, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It can be summed up in this table: Dist Romney Trump Cruz =========================== HD126 62.1% 53.0% 51.5% HD127 69.2% 61.2% 59.5% HD128 72.4% 68.2% 66.8% HD129 64.5% 55.3% 54.0% HD130 75.9% 68.1% 66.0% HD132 58.9% 50.0% 47.9% HD133 68.1% 54.5% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, HD132, HD134, HD135, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Republican Party, Senate, straight ticket voting, Ted Cruz, turnout | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: The two key CDs

Posted on November 20, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I want to break out of my usual precinct analysis posts to focus on the two big Congressional districts that were held by Republicans going into this election and are entirely within Harris County, CD02 and CD07. CD07 Candidate Votes … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD07, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, James Cargas, John Culberson, Lizzie FLetcher, Mitt Romney, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Ted Poe, Texas, Todd Litton, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

How Ted Cruz barely hung on

Posted on November 11, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s check some hot takes on what happened in the Senate race. All in all, Beto improved upon Democratic gains in Texas’ 10 most populous counties, long central to their hopes of turning the state purple. But what about the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2012, Election 2018, Paul Sadler, precinct analysis, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | 10 Comments

Initial reactions: Statewide

Posted on November 8, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m going to do a few of these “Initial reaction” posts about Tuesday’s elections as I try to make sense of all that happened. Here we go. Let me start with a number. Two numbers, actually: 4,017,851 and 48.26%. The … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Ag Commissioner, Attorney General, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Governor, Greg Abbott, Hillary Clinton, Joi Chevalier, Justin Nelson, Kathy Cheng, Kim Olson, Land Commissioner, Lite Gov, Lupe Valdez, Maria Jackson, Miguel Suazo, Mike Collier, Railroad Commission, Ramona Franklin, RK Sandill, Roman McAllen, Senate, Steven Kirkland, Supreme Court, Texas, turnout | 8 Comments

Today is election day

Posted on November 6, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It’s what we’ve been waiting for, for what seems like forever. From the inbox: Tuesday, November 6, 2018 is Election Day. Voting locations will be open from 7 am to 7 pm. Voters may visit www.HarrisVotes.com, the County Clerk’s election … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election Day, Harris County, HFD, Houston, HPFFA, lawsuit, Sylvester Turner, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

The trend in mail ballots

Posted on November 5, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Wanted to take a closer look at the not-in-person aspect of early voting: Year Mailed Returned Return% Dem % ========================================= 2008 76,187 68,612 90.06% 36.60% 2010 69,991 55,560 79.38% 30.82% 2012 92,290 76,085 82.44% 41.79% 2014 89,073 71,994 80.83% 48.94% … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 23 Comments

Projecting Tuesday turnout

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the statewide view. By the time the polls closed Thursday, 33.7 percent of registered voters in Bexar County had voted, well past the 17.3 percent turnout at the same point in 2014, the last midterm, and close to the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Bexar County, Collin County, Denton County, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 1 Comment

The Courts of Appeals

Posted on November 4, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The other judicial races where Dems have a chance to gain ground. Republicans dominate Texas politics — but their stranglehold is especially noticeable in the courts. Republicans hold all 18 seats on the state’s two high courts. Of the state’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged 13th Court of Appeals, 14th Court of Appeals, 4th Court of Appeals, 5th Court of Appeals, Brazoria County, Dallas County, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, judicial races, Texas, Third Court of Appeals, Travis County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 12: Final curtain

Posted on November 3, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

It was apparently a late night with long lines, and the report didn’t arrive by 10 PM, so you’ll have to settle for this. When the polls closed in Harris County Friday, more voters had cast ballots than in any … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 5 Comments

Early voting, Day 11: Almost done

Posted on November 2, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Before we get to the numbers, here’s my new favorite quote of the cycle: “If Ted Cruz had Beto’s campaign manager he’d be leading by 20 points,” said Dan Rogers, the Republican chairman in Potter County, where Cruz drew about … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout | Comments Off

Early voting, Day 10: Happy Halloween

Posted on November 1, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Wednesday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting, Day 9: Who are these people?

Posted on October 31, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The question keeps getting asked, who is it that has been voting so far? An unprecedented number of Texans cast their ballots during the first week of early voting, but it is impossible to predict whether that surge will benefit … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Dallas County, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

Early voting, Day 8: On to Week 2

Posted on October 30, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the totals for Monday, and here are the daily totals from 2010, from 2014, and from 2016, as well as a spreadsheet with totals from 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016. The running tallies: Year Mail Early Total ============================== … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 5 Comments

Day 7 early voting: Let the hot takes begin

Posted on October 29, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just going to quote this bit from this story about how the Senate campaigns are interpreting the early vote turnout so far. Derek Ryan, a GOP data consultant who previously worked for the state party, said there are a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 4 Comments

Day 6 early voting: A very early stab at projecting turnout

Posted on October 28, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

This is the point in the early voting process where early voting hours expand, and as a result daily EV reports come in later. That may affect my ability to present the latest data each day, so I’m going to … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, turnout | 1 Comment

Early voting Day 5: It’s been a long week (in a good way)

Posted on October 27, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Did I mention it’s been busy? Voters across the state have come out in massive numbers during the first five days of early voting, and soon, more Texans will have voted early in 2018 than in all of 2014’s early … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Cameron County, Dallas County, early voting, El Paso, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, Travis County, turnout, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Day 4 early voting: A brief look around the state

Posted on October 26, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib has it all organized for you. As of day three of early voting, 1,344,741 Texans have cast in-person ballots and 240,601 cast mail-in ballots in the 30 counties where most registered voters in the state — 78 percent … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 9 Comments

Day 3 early voting: In shorter hours

Posted on October 25, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve heard a few people complain about the shorter early voting hours in the first week. For the first five days for early voting, Harris County’s 46 polling locations open at 8 a.m. and close at 4:30 p.m., the earliest … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 15 Comments

Day 1 early voting totals: Like three days in one

Posted on October 23, 2018 by Charles Kuffner

Monday was busy. Harris County residents on Monday set a new record for the first day of early voting in a midterm election, as 63,188 went to the polls to cast ballots. The turnout smashed the previous mark, set in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2018 | Tagged absentee ballots, early voting, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Harris County, Texas, turnout | 7 Comments

Tag Archives: Election 2012

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