Tag Archives: Election 2016

Endorsement watch: Ed and Kim

Posted on September 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is an easy call. Anyone who has been led by personal experience or the events of the past year to conclude that cops are callous and jaded hasn’t meant Ed Gonzalez. The compassionate approach of this 51-year-old homicide detective-turned-city … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Audia Jones, Carvana Cloud, District Attorney, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, endorsements, Harris County, Harris County Sheriff, Joe Danna, Kim Ogg, Mary Nan Huffman, Mike Anderson | Comments Off

Trib overview of the Senate race

Posted on September 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It really comes down to the top of the ticket. There’s no getting around it. Even before a pandemic struck, protests over racial justice took to the streets and a vacancy opened on the U.S. Supreme Court, this year’s U.S. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, voter registration, Wayne Christian | 2 Comments

NYT/Siena: Trump 46, Biden 43

Posted on September 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The second of two polls from yesterday, both of which are interesting in their own way. The NYT story about the poll, which included results from Iowa (Biden leading by3) and Georgia (tied), is behind their firewall, so I’ll give … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Donald Trump, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas, turnout | 1 Comment

The HCDE makeover

Posted on September 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One more world to conquer in Harris County. The future looked bleak for Texas’ last remaining county education department in early 2019. After years of state-level efforts to abolish the Harris County Department of Education, a new majority of trustees … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Hinojosa, Andrea Duhon, Bob Wolfe, Briscoe Cain, Danyahel Norris, David Brown, Debby Kerner, Diane Trautman, Don Sumners, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Dick, Erica Davis, Erica Lee, George Moore, Harris County, HCDE, Jim Henley, Josh Flynn, Michael Wolfe, Paul Bettencourt, Richard Cantu, Sherrie Matula, The Lege | 4 Comments

Sixteen point six million

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

That’s our current total of registered voters in Texas. Texas has once again shattered vote registration records, adding more than 1.5 million voters since the last presidential election. Texas now surpassed 16.6 million voters, according to the latest numbers announced … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, President, Secretary of State, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 2 Comments

Don’t expect any surprises in the judicial races

Posted on September 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s a simple reason why the Democratic candidates and incumbents are expected to win all the judicial races in Harris County, as they did in 2016 and 2018. I’ll tell you why in a minute, but see if you can … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, judicial races, straight ticket voting, Texas, turnout, voter registration | 1 Comment

Endorsement watch: No Briscoe

Posted on September 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron follows the basic principle that bad acts should not be rewarded, and bad actors do not belong in positions of trust and power. In his two terms representing House District 128, Rep. Briscoe Cain has quickly acquired a … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Briscoe Cain, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, endorsements, HD128, HD133, Jim Murphy, Mary Williams, Sandra Moore, Texas, The Lege | 5 Comments

CD03 poll: Taylor 44, Seikaly 43

Posted on September 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Nate Cohn: If there’s any single competitive district you could look at on Election Night to know whether Texas went blue, this might be the pick — Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) 8:47 AM – 17 September 2020 All we get … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD03, CD06, CD25, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, Lulu Seikaly, Mitt Romney, polls, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, Van Taylor | Comments Off

CD25: Williams 45, Oliver 43

Posted on September 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

The Congressional polls, they keep coming. Progressive Democratic candidate Julie Oliver is in a close race with her GOP incumbent opponent Rep. Roger Williams, a new internal poll finds. The poll of 400 likely voters by EMC Research shows Oliver … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD25, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, polls, Roger Williams, Texas | 2 Comments

CD31 poll: Carter 43, Imam 37

Posted on September 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Another interesting Congressional race poll. With less than two months to go until Election Day, an increasing number of eyes are looking toward Texas, where Republicans are fighting to keep their grip on the once-reliably conservative state. There is perhaps … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, CD21, CD31, Chip Roy, Congress, DCCC, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Joe Kopser, John Carter, John Cornyn, Libertarian Party, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, precinct analysis, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas, Wendy Davis, Williamson County | 1 Comment

CD21 poll: Davis 48, Roy 47

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Second poll in this district. Between August 31 and September 4, Garin-Hart-Yang interviewed a representative sample of 401 likely general election voters in Texas-21st CD. The survey, which was conducted on both landlines and cell phones, was fully representative of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD21, Chip Roy, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Lamar Smith, polls, precinct analysis, Ted Cruz, Texas, Tom Wakely, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, redistricting, Steve Radack, Texas, Tom Ramsey, voter registration | 1 Comment

PPP/Giffords: Trump 48, Biden 47

Posted on September 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Evan Smith: New @ppppolls poll in Texas: @realDonaldTrump 48 @joebiden 47 @JohnCornyn 44 @mjhegar 40 https://giffords.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/TexasResults1.pdf #txlege #txsen #tx2020 — EvanSmith (@evanasmith) 3:18 PM – 08 September 2020 I could not find a news story, press release, or even … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Gabrielle Giffords, gun control, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Texas | Comments Off

Poll: Michael Moore claims large lead in Commissioners Court race

Posted on September 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Keir Murray: Like Dallas County did over a decade ago, Harris County Commissioners Court poised to flip from 4-1 Republican to 4-1 Democrat in just two election cycles. @mmooretx strongly positioned to win Pct. 3. Trump trailing by 14 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, Donald Trump, Ed Gonzalez, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Kim Ogg, Michael Moore, polls, precinct analysis, Texas, Tom Ramsey | 2 Comments

A very simple projection of the November vote

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

In my earlier post about the current state of voter registrations, I noted that you could see the county-by-county totals in the contest details for the Senate runoff. What that also means is that if you have current (till now, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Brooks County, Comal County, Culberson County, Dimmit County, Donald Trump, Duval County, Ector County, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Ellis County, Frio County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Jefferson County, Jim Hogg County, Jim Wells County, Joe Biden, Kaufman County, Kleberg County, La Salle County, Lubbock, Midland County, Mitt Romney, Montgomery County, Parker County, precinct analysis, President, Presidio County, Randall County, Reeves County, Rockwall County, Senate, Smith County, Starr County, Ted Cruz, Texas, turnout, Val Verde County, voter registration, Willacy County, Zapata County, Zavala County | 4 Comments

A word about mail ballot drop boxes

Posted on August 31, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I learned something in this story. Travis County voters nervous about delays with the post office will be able to hand-deliver mail-in ballots or drop them off at drive-thru sites this fall, County Clerk Dana DeBeauvoir said Tuesday. “If they … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, coronavirus, Dana DeBeauvoir, drop off boxes, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, primaries, runoff, Texas, Travis County, turnout, US Postal Service | 1 Comment

PPP: Biden 48, Trump 47

Posted on August 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Time for another poll. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden emerged from his national convention with a 1 percentage point lead in Texas over Republican President Donald Trump, a poll scheduled for wide release on Tuesday shows. The results from the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Joe Biden, polls, President, Texas | Comments Off

The state of the Democratic bench

Posted on August 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s deeper now, and it could keep getting deeper after this year. The speaking turns may have been brief and the spotlight not as bright, but Texas Democrats got a glimpse at their national convention this week of their emerging … Continue reading →

Posted in Show Business for Ugly People | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD03, CD05, CD07, CD16, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Joaquin Castro, Ken Paxton, Lance Gooden, Lina Hidalgo, Lizzie FLetcher, Senate, Sid Miller, Texas, The Lege, Van Taylor, Veronica Escobar, Victoria Neave, Wayne Christian | 5 Comments

As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Beverly Powell, CD06, CD24, Congress, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Konni Burton, polls, President, redistricting, SD10, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Green Party candidate for Supreme Court withdraws

Posted on August 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s not an election without a bit of ballot drama. Charles Waterbury, the Green Party candidate for Texas Supreme Court chief justice, has dropped out of the race after an opponent questioned his eligibility to run. Waterbury’s withdrawal notice was … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Amy Clark Meachum, ballot access, Charles Waterbury, David Collins, Democratic primary, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2020, Green Party, judicial races, Katija Gruene, Libertarian Party, Martina Salinas, Nathan Hecht, Railroad Commission, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas | 8 Comments

Despite it all, voter registration keeps increasing

Posted on August 17, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

You love to see it. Not even the worst pandemic to hit Texas in a century was enough to stem the surge in voter registrations that has remade the state’s electorate over the past four years. Just since March, Texas … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Battleground Texas, Beto O'Rourke, Bexar County, Brazos County, Comal County, Congress, coronavirus, Dallas County, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Tax Assessor, Hays County, Jolt Initiative, Powered by People, President, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Travis County, turnout, voter registration, Williamson County | 3 Comments

Now we’re getting favorable State House polls

Posted on August 14, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: A recent poll of Texas House District 126, conducted for Democratic challenger Natali Hurtado’s campaign shows her essentially tied with Republican incumbent Sam Harless. The poll of 401 likely voters, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, showed Hurtado … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Beto O'Rourke, Brandy Chambers, Celina Montoya, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, HD108, HD112, HD121, HD126, HD134, Hillary Clinton, Joanna Cattanach, Joe Biden, Morgan Meyer, Natali Hurtado, polls, Sam Harless, Sarah Davis, Steve Allison, Texas, The Lege | 4 Comments

CD24 poll: Valenzuela 47, Van Duyne 41

Posted on August 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From the Twitters: Big #TX24 numbers in Morning Score this AM @candacefor24 leading @Bethvanduyne 48-41 @JoeBiden leading @realDonaldTrump 49-45 — Cole Leiter (@coleleiter) 6:41 AM – 6 August 2020 You can see the poll info here. The 48-41 and 49-45 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beth van Duyne, Beto O'Rourke, Candace Valenzuela, CD24, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, polls, Texas | 1 Comment

Interview with Sherrie Matula of Sisters United Alliance

Posted on August 3, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Sherrie Matula is a longtime Democratic activist (she was a founder of the BAAD Women club) and two-time candidate (for HD129 in 2008, and for HCDE in Precinct 2 in 2016, which she lost by 0.2 percentage points), but that’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged activism, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, interviews, Sherrie Matula, Sisters United Alliance, Texas, turnout | 2 Comments

Abandon ship!

Posted on July 26, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

LOL. During Troy Nehls’ recent bid for the Republican nomination in one of Texas’ battleground congressional districts, the Fort Bend County sheriff prominently displayed his support for President Trump across his campaign website. “In Congress, I will stand with President … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, CD07, CD10, CD22, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2010, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, George Bush, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike McCaul, Mike Siegel, President, Sri Kulkarni, Texas, Troy Nehls | 1 Comment

CD03 poll: Taylor 43, Seikaly 37

Posted on July 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I expect we’ll see a fair amount of Congressional district polling this cycle. There is a single-digit race underway for Texas’ traditionally red 3rd Congressional District, according to a new poll from the new Democratic nominee’s campaign. The nominee, Lulu … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD21, CD32, Chip Roy, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Lizzie FLetcher, Lulu Seikaly, polls, President, Senate, Stephen Daniel, Texas, Wendy Davis | 2 Comments

A deeper dive into the Texas polls

Posted on July 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Decision Desk: Whenever there is a new poll of Texas released, there are a ton of hot takes on Twitter. Old believers of Texas as the great blue whale for the Democrats move to dismiss the poll, saying that … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | 5 Comments

Quinnipiac: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on July 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just another poll showing Joe Biden in the lead in Texas, though you have to scroll way down in the Quinnipiac press release to get to that. With Texas as one of the biggest hot spots in the coronavirus pandemic, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mitt Romney, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Senate, Ted Cruz, Texas | 4 Comments

Dems could possibly win a lot of Congressional races in Texas

Posted on July 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It started with this: what does a biden win in texas look like? here’s how a D+1 nailbiter might turn out, if we use 2016 and 2018 as a guide → (hint: biden would win 9 currently R-held districts and … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Candace Valenzuela, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, Donald Trump, Donna Imam, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Gina Ortiz Jones, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Julie Oliver, Lizzie FLetcher, Lulu Seikaly, Mike Siegel, polls, President, redistricting, Senate, Sima Ladjevardian, Sri Kulkarni, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, The Lege, Wendy Davis | 7 Comments

2020 Primary Runoff Early Voting, Second Tuesday: A history of Democratic primary runoffs

Posted on July 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Yesterday I said that the turnout so far in the 2020 Democratic primary runoff was already historic. Today I’m going to show my work on that. Herewith is the 21st century history of Democratic primary runoff turnout for Harris County: … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, coronavirus, early voting, Election 2002, Election 2006, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, face masks, Governor, Greg Abbott, Harris County, lawsuit, primaries, Railroad Commission, runoff, Senate, Texas, turnout | 3 Comments

A more extensive look at the state polls

Posted on July 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, I’ve been computing a poll average for the Presidential race in Texas based on post-primary numbers, meaning that I start with the April 25 UT/Trib result and go from there. As of the June 25 Fox poll, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2020, Joe Biden, polls, President, Texas | Comments Off

The fifty percent challenge

Posted on July 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

An interesting point from Amy Walters. President Trump is at the most precarious political moment of his presidency. Or at least, the most precarious since the summer and fall of 2017 when, in the wake of Charlottesville, the failure to … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged Donald Trump, Election 1992, Election 1996, Election 2000, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Green Party, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Libertarian Party, polls, President, Ralph Nader, Ross Perot, Texas, write-in candidate | 4 Comments

2020 Primary Runoff Early Voting, Day One: People seem to like this vote by mail thing

Posted on July 1, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Big surprise, am I right? Harris County voters cast more than 51,000 ballots Monday in the primary runoffs, an eye-popping total that exceeded turnout for entire runoff elections in some recent years. Combined with a robust in-person turnout, voters had … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged absentee ballots, Chris Hollins, coronavirus, early voting, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, Harris County Clerk, primaries, runoff, turnout | 5 Comments

Fox: Biden 45, Trump 44

Posted on June 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Man, if we keep getting polls that show Joe Biden leading in Texas, we just might have to rethink where this state is politically. Texas is a tossup, as Democrat Joe Biden tops President Donald Trump by a percentage point, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Royce West, runoff, Senate, Texas | 14 Comments

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