Tag Archives: redistricting

Precinct analysis: Appellate courts, part 1

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial Other jurisdictions My next two posts in this series will focus on the 1st and 14th Courts of Appeals. These courts are a little strange … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged 14th Court of Appeals, Amparo Guerra, Austin County, Brazoria County, Burleson County, Chambers County, Colorado County, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, First Court of Appeals, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Grimes County, Harris County, Jane Robinson, Jim Sharp, judicial races, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, Terry Adams, Texas, The Lege, Tracy Christopher, Trinity County, turnout, Veronica Rivas-Molloy, Walker County, Waller County, Washington County | 1 Comment

SCOTUS mostly punts on Census apportionment shenanigans

Posted on December 22, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

They seem to be hoping that the problem will solve itself, while applying a partisan litmus test to when it is appropriate for them to step in. The Supreme Court dismissed a challenge to Donald Trump’s final sabotage of the … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters, National news | Tagged California, Census, Commerce Department, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2020, immigration, Joe Biden, lawsuit, redistricting, SCOTUS, Texas | Comments Off

Precinct analysis: Other jurisdictions

Posted on December 21, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts Commissioners Court/JP precincts Comparing 2012 and 2016 Statewide judicial You may be wondering “Hey, how come you haven’t reported on data from SBOE and State Senate districts?” Well, I’ll tell you, since the SBOE … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Audrey Young, Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Court of Criminal Appeals, Dan Patrick, David Romero, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Houston, Joe Biden, judicial races, Lawrence Allen, Michelle Palmer, Paul Bettencourt, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, SBOE, SD07, SD17, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas | 5 Comments

Precinct analysis: Commissioners Court and JP/Constable precincts

Posted on December 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts State Rep districts We now zoom in for a look at various county districts, which are also called “precincts”. I don’t know why we have County Commissioner precincts and JP/Constable precincts to go along with regular voting … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Israel Garcia, Jack Morman, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Justice of the Peace, Laryssa Korduba, Mark Alan Harrison, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Russ Ridgway, Senate, Ted Heap, Texas, Tom Ramsey | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: State Rep districts

Posted on December 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction Congressional districts We move now to State Rep districts, which is my usual currency since they provide complete coverage of the county with no partial pieces. You can also get a much more nuanced view of how things have … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Chrysta Castaneda, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD131, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD137, HD138, HD139, HD140, HD141, HD142, HD143, HD144, HD145, HD146, HD147, HD148, HD149, HD150, Hubert Vo, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Mary Ann Perez, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Sarah Davis, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Precinct analysis: Congressional districts

Posted on December 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Introduction All right, let’s get this party started. In the past I’ve generally done the top races by themselves, but any race involving Trump provides challenges, because his level of support just varies in comparison to other Republicans depending on … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged CD02, CD07, CD08, CD09, CD10, CD18, CD22, CD29, CD36, Chrysta Castaneda, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Jim Wright, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, Lizzie FLetcher, Mike McCaul, MJ Hegar, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, Sheila Jackson Lee, Sima Ladjevardian, Sylvia Garcia, Texas, Wendell Champion, Wesley Hunt | 5 Comments

2020 precinct analysis: Introduction and overview

Posted on December 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

So I finally got a full canvass of the 2020 election in a nice and convenient spreadsheet form. I spent a fair amount of the Thanksgiving week doing what I usually do with it, to generate totals for all of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2019 | Tagged Commissioners Court, Congress, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Harris County, judicial races, precinct analysis, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege | 8 Comments

Will we get redistricting hearings?

Posted on December 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Please? Voting groups in Texas want lawmakers to open up the state’s redistricting process to the public before they redraw political boundaries next year. Public hearings are aimed at giving communities input in the process. But since the pandemic, those … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged coronavirus, League of Women Voters, redistricting, Senate, Texas, The Lege, Voting Rights Act | 1 Comment

More 2022 speculation

Posted on December 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Campos: I was watching “What’s Your Point” yesterday and the 2022 election was brought up. Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo would face an opponent in the Democratic Primary. My friend Bill King … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2022 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Annise Parker, Bill King, Commissioners Court, Democratic primary, Ed Emmett, Election 2018, Election 2022, Harris County, Lina Hidalgo, redistricting, Texas | 2 Comments

So now we start to prep for redistricting

Posted on November 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s gonna make for a long session, or more likely sessions. Wielding the map-drawing power will not be entirely painless for Republicans, who have seen their grip on dozens of state and federal districts erode since the last round of … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged Congress, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, filing deadline, HD102, HD105, HD107, HD108, HD112, HD113, HD114, HD115, HD121, HD126, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD136, HD138, HD26, HD43, HD45, HD47, HD54, HD65, HD67, HD92, HD93, HD94, HD96, HD97, HF64, lawsuit, Legislative Redistricting Board, primaries, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, special session, Texas, The Lege, Voting Rights Act | 5 Comments

We might get better Census apportionment data

Posted on November 24, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Some good news. The Census Bureau has identified issues in the data from the 2020 decennial census that will take an additional 20 days or so for it to fix, and thus delay the release of survey’s apportionment data until … Continue reading →

Posted in National news | Tagged Census, Commerce Department, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2020, immigration, Joe Biden, lawsuit, redistricting, SCOTUS | 1 Comment

More early data from State Rep districts

Posted on November 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

From Derek Ryan on Twitter: . President Trump won House District 74, a Democrat-held district in West Texas along the border, with 53.1%. He also won House District 31, a Democrat-held district in South Texas with 56.2%. — Derek Ryan … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Abel Herrero, Cameron County, Donald Trump, Eddie Morales, Election 2004, Election 2020, Election 2022, George Bush, HD134, HD31, HD34, HD43, HD74, Hidalgo County, Joe Biden, Nueces County, precinct analysis, redistricting, Ryan Guillen, Sarah Davis, Texas, The Lege | 3 Comments

Looking ahead to 2022

Posted on November 10, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Continuing with the brain dumps, which are my post-election tradition. This is a collection of thoughts about the next big election, in 2022. As I said earlier, I take no position on the question of what effect the disparity in … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, Election 2022 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Cecile Richards, Congress, Democratic primary, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Election 2022, Governor, Harris County, Harris County Judge, Joe Biden, judicial races, Julian Castro, Lina Hidalgo, Lite Gov, marijuana, Medicaid, Mitch McConnell, President, primaries, redistricting, Texas, The Lege, turnout, voter registration | 6 Comments

It’s a range, not a number

Posted on November 9, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t have full canvass data yet, but as I have said, I have Presidential data courtesy of Greg Wythe. Here are a couple of districts of interest: Dist Biden Trump Biden% Trump% ========================================= CD02 170,707 178,840 48.1% 50.0% CD07 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD18, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Donald Trump, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, HD132, HD133, HD134, HD135, HD138, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Justice of the Peace, precinct analysis, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

A comparison to 2012

Posted on November 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

A lot of the takes on this election – and I’m guilty of this, too – involve comparisons to 2016 and 2018. That’s fair – those are the most recent elections, the only other elections that involve Trump, the patterns … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Barack Obama, Beto O'Rourke, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Fort Bend County, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, Mitt Romney, President, redistricting, SBOE, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Tarrant County has gone (tentatively) blue

Posted on November 6, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

At the Presidential level, with votes still being counted. Though President Donald Trump has been declared the winner in Texas, former Vice President Joe Biden has taken the lead with the latest results in Tarrant County. Biden had a 427 … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged absentee ballots, Beto O'Rourke, Donald Trump, Election 2018, Election 2020, Joe Biden, President, provisional ballots, redistricting, Sheriff, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege, turnout | 1 Comment

Initial thoughts about the election

Posted on November 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

And now for some reactions and analysis… – The polls were garbage. Oy vey. Not just here, though they were definitely off here, underestimating Trump and the Republicans after doing the same to Beto and the Dems in 2018. This … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Beto O'Rourke, CD02, Chrysta Castaneda, Commissioners Court, Congress, Dan Crenshaw, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, Grady Yarbrough, Greg Abbott, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD126, HD127, HD128, HD129, HD130, HD132, HD133, HD135, HD138, HD150, Jack Morman, Jane Bland, Joe Biden, John Cornyn, judicial races, Latino voting, MJ Hegar, polls, President, Railroad Commission, redistricting, Senate, straight ticket voting, Supreme Court, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, turnout, voter registration, Wendy Davis | 8 Comments

Omnibus Election Day post

Posted on November 4, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I was up really late last night, and there’s still a lot of votes to be counted. The SOS website was mostly trash, but a lot of county election sites took their sweet, sweet time even reporting any Election Day … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, The making of the President | Tagged Angie Chen Button, Ann Johnson, Brandy Chambers, CD23, Commissioners Court, Congress, Constable, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Eric Fagan, Fort Bend County, Gina Calanni, Gina Ortiz Jones, Harris County, HCDE, HD108, HD112, HD132, HD134, HD135, HD138, Israel Garcia, Joanna Cattanach, Jon Rosenthal, judicial races, Justice of the Peace, Latino voting, Michael Moore, Mike Schofield, Morgan Meyer, Pete Flores, polls, President, Rebecca Bell-Metereau, redistricting, Roland Gutierrez, Russ Ridgway, Sarah Davis, SBOE, SD19, Senate, Sheriff, straight ticket voting, Ted Heap, Texas, The Lege, Tom Ramsey, Tony Gonzales, turnout | 16 Comments

Rep. Senfronia Thompson files for Speaker

Posted on October 25, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

One hat in the ring, who knows how many to go. State Rep. Senfronia Thompson, the longest-serving woman and Black person in the history of the Texas Legislature, filed Friday to run for speaker of the Texas House, making her … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged Alma Allen, Briscoe Cain, budget, coronavirus, Dennis Bonnen, Doc Anderson, Election 2020, face masks, Greg Abbott, local control, Phil Stephenson, quarantine, redistricting, Senfronia Thompson, Speaker's race, Texas, The Lege, Tom Craddick | 4 Comments

October 2020 campaign finance reports: Congress

Posted on October 19, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

This is it, the last quarterly finance report roundup for the cycle. It’s been quite the time, hasn’t it? Let’s do this and see where we are as voting continues. The January 2019 roundup is here, which closed out the … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Adrienne Bell, campaign finance reports, Candace Valenzuela, Carol Ianuzzi, CD01, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD07, CD08, CD10, CD14, CD17, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD26, CD31, CD32, Colin Allred, Congress, DCCC, Donna Imam, Election 2012, Election 2018, Election 2020, Election 2022, Election 2024, Elizabeth Hernandez, fundraising, Gina Ortiz Jones, Hank Gilbert, Julie Oliver, Lizzie FLetcher, Lulu Seikaly, Mike Siegel, MJ Hegar, redistricting, Rick Kennedy, Senate, Sima Ladjevardian, Sri Kulkarni, Stephen Daniel, Ted Cruz, Texas, Wendy Davis | Comments Off

Still worried about the Census

Posted on October 18, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

There’s this. The census came to an abrupt halt Thursday after a pandemic and a legal tug-of-war threw the massive survey into chaos. Officials around the country now fear they’ll lose their fair share of federal funding and political representation … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters, National news | Tagged budget, Census, Commerce Department, Congress, coronavirus, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Harris County, Joe Biden, lawsuit, Lloyd Potter, President, redistricting, SCOTUS, Sheila Jackson Lee, Texas, Texas State Demographer, Wilbur Ross | 2 Comments

Speaker’s race? What Speaker’s race?

Posted on October 2, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Just a reminder that one of the three most powerful political offices in the state is on the ballot this November, even if it’s largely invisible to us. State Rep. Senfronia Thompson fielded a question last week that’s been on … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020, That's our Lege | Tagged Chris Paddie, Chris Turner, Craig Goldman, Dade Phelan, Dennis Bonnen, Donna Howard, Election 2020, Four Price, Geanie Morrison, James Frank, Jim Dunnam, Joe Moody, Joe Straus, Matt Krause, Oscar Longoria, Rafael Anchia, redistricting, Senfronia Thompson, Speaker's race, Texas, The Lege, Tom Craddick, Trent Ashby, Trey Martinez-Fischer | Comments Off

October Census deadline restored

Posted on September 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Good news, though as with everything we can’t be sure just yet that it’s for real. A federal judge in California late Thursday blocked the Trump administration from stopping the 2020 Census count next week, saying it should continue until … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Adrian Garcia, California, Census, Commerce Department, Congress, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Fort Bend County, Harris County, immigration, lawsuit, Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, League of Women Voters, Montgomery County, Natalia Cornelio, National Urban League, redistricting, Rodney Ellis, SCOTUS, Texas, Wilbur Ross | Comments Off

Scrambling to finish the Census

Posted on September 13, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s a hell of a job, and it’s so important. With a deadline looming for local governments to complete a population count for the 2020 Census, Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner is warning that the city could miss out on billions … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters, The great state of Texas | Tagged Adrian Garcia, Census, Commerce Department, Donald Trump, Fort Bend County, Galveston, Harris County, Houston, lawsuit, Lina Hidalgo, Montgomery County, redistricting, Rodney Ellis, Sylvester Turner, Texas, Wilbur Ross | Comments Off

Another look at the County Commissioner race

Posted on September 11, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

It’s the most consequential local race on the ballot this year. Every four years since 1968, Harris County residents have been able to count on a Republican winning the Precinct 3 commissioner’s seat. In that half century, a parade of … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Commissioners Court, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2018, Election 2020, Harris County, Hillary Clinton, Michael Moore, redistricting, Steve Radack, Texas, Tom Ramsey, voter registration | 1 Comment

Census shenanigans halted for now

Posted on September 8, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Good. [On] Saturday, US District Judge Lucy Koh issued a temporary restraining order to stop Census Bureau officials from winding down door-knocking and online, phone, and mail response collection by September 30—a month early—writing that the shortened census timeline could … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Adrian Garcia, California, Census, Commerce Department, Congress, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Harris County, immigration, Joe Biden, lawsuit, Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, League of Women Voters, National Urban League, redistricting, Rodney Ellis, Texas, Wilbur Ross | 3 Comments

Wait, there’s a Census going on?

Posted on September 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

I smack my forehead so hard. Through a small notice tucked into the state’s business register, Texas appears to have acknowledged that the 2020 census count is going badly. With just a month of counting to go in the crucial … Continue reading →

Posted in The great state of Texas | Tagged Census, Cesar Blanco, Commerce Department, Congress, coronavirus, Dan Patrick, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, lawsuit, redistricting, Secretary of State, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Will we have redistricting hearings?

Posted on September 5, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Not looking great for it right now. In the shadow of the COVID-19 pandemic, Texas Republicans have quietly halted plans to hold a series of public input hearings across more than 20 cities, slated to occur earlier this year, to … Continue reading →

Posted in That's our Lege | Tagged activism, coronavirus, Election 2020, Joan Huffman, Phil King, redistricting, Senate, Texas, Texas Civil Rights Project, The Lege | Comments Off

As goes Tarrant, 2020 edition

Posted on August 23, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Hello, old friend. Shortly after Democrat Beto O’Rourke launched his campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, he made several visits to Tarrant County in North Texas to press the message that if he could flip this county, … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, Beverly Powell, CD06, CD24, Congress, demography, Donald Trump, Election 2004, Election 2008, Election 2012, Election 2016, Election 2020, Joe Biden, Konni Burton, polls, President, redistricting, SD10, Senate, Tarrant County, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

Lawsuit filed to restore original Census deadline

Posted on August 20, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Good. Citing the high stakes of a botched census, Harris County and two of its Democratic county commissioners have signed on to a federal lawsuit trying to block the Trump administration’s efforts to end counting for the 2020 census a … Continue reading →

Posted in Legal matters | Tagged Adrian Garcia, California, Census, Commerce Department, Congress, coronavirus, Donald Trump, Harris County, immigration, lawsuit, Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, League of Women Voters, National Urban League, redistricting, Rodney Ellis, Texas, Wilbur Ross | Comments Off

It’s like we don’t want any extra Congresspeople

Posted on August 7, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As someone once said, where’s the outrage? For months, as Texans have been asked to stay home to avoid the spread of the new coronavirus, Jennifer Edwards has been doing the rounds at gas stations in a trio of counties … Continue reading →

Posted in The great state of Texas | Tagged Census, Congress, coronavirus, demography, Donald Trump, Greg Abbott, redistricting, Texas, Texas Demographic Center, The Lege | 8 Comments

Checking in on CD21

Posted on July 29, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Thar’s the race where Wendy Davis is trying to unseat the mini-Ted Cruz known as Chip Roy, and the pundits are thinking she can do it. All signs are pointing toward a competitive race between incumbent conservative firebrand U.S. Rep. … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Beto O'Rourke, CD02, CD03, CD06, CD10, CD21, CD22, CD23, CD24, CD25, CD31, Chip Roy, Congress, Election 2018, Election 2020, fundraising, polls, redistricting, Texas, voter registration, Wendy Davis | 1 Comment

What a Democratic House means for redistricting

Posted on July 28, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Rick Casey makes a point about what a Democratic-majority State House will and won’t be able to do in 2021, in particular with redistricting. I would put the Democrats’ chances of taking back the State House of Representatives as better … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2020 | Tagged Census, Congress, Election 2002, Election 2020, Election 2022, FLIP the Texas House, Legislative Redistricting Board, redistricting, Senate, special session, Texas, The Lege, Tom DeLay, Trey Martinez-Fischer | 3 Comments

How to lose a Congressional seat

Posted on July 27, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

As things stand right now, Texas will gain three Congressional seats in the 2021 reapportionment, as Texas continues to be the fastest-growing state in the country. There is one thing that can stop that, however: Donald Trump. President Donald Trump … Continue reading →

Posted in National news | Tagged ACLU, Alabama, California, Census, Congress, Donald Trump, Election 2020, Election 2022, Florida, immigration, lawsuit, Minnesota, Ohio, Phil King, redistricting, Senate, Texas, The Lege | 2 Comments

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