Tag Archives: Barack Obama

Remake the Fifth Circuit!

Posted on January 7, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Yes, please. The 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is widely viewed as one of the nation’s most conservative federal appellate courts, but President Barack Obama could get a chance to change that perception in his second term. Ten of … Continue reading →

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Horse’s head sold separately

Posted on January 6, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Shorter John Cornyn: “Unless President Obama gives us Republicans everything we want – and we insist that he be the one to come up with the list of things that we want, so we can attack him for it in … Continue reading →

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All or nothing on Medicaid expansion

Posted on December 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Partial Medicaid expansion, in whatever the form, will not be an option. “Consistent with the law, there is not an option for enhanced match for a partial or phased in Medicaid expansion,” acting Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services administrator … Continue reading →

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How the so-called “fiscal cliff” might affect Texas

Posted on December 11, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

There is of course a very simple way to avoid this. If President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans cannot avoid tripping off the edge of the so-called fiscal cliff, then the Texas budget could be more than $1 billion short … Continue reading →

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What’s $2 billion among friends?

Posted on December 9, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Easy come, easy go, am I right? If Texas leaders turn down the federal health law’s Medicaid expansion, they will reject a $2 billion annual revenue stream for the state’s hospitals, according to Dan Mendelson, CEO and founder of Avalere … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: A closer look at the Latino districts

Posted on December 5, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a more in-depth look at the Latino districts in Harris County. I’m particularly interested in the question of how President Obama did in comparison to the other Dems on the ballot, since as we know he lagged behind them … Continue reading →

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Getting out the vote in Bexar County

Posted on December 3, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Stace pointed me to this Express News story about the Bexar County Democratic Party’s ground game for the November election. Many factors influence the outcome of an election, and precise analysis is not always available. But putting $600,000 into a … Continue reading →

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This is what a full-scale Latino outreach program looks like

Posted on December 2, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This is what I’m talking about. President Barack Obama’s campaign team realized even before Romney was nominated that the growing Latino vote was the key to a second Obama term. And they acted to sew it up with an early, … Continue reading →

Posted in The making of the President | Tagged , , , , , , | 2 Comments

Precinct analysis: The range of possibility

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a look at selected districts in Harris County that shows the range of votes and vote percentages achieved by Democratic candidates. I’ve thrown in the Obama and Sam Houston results from 2008 for each to provide a comparison between … Continue reading →

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We should expect boring Congressional races for the foreseeable future

Posted on November 28, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

That’s my takeaway after reading this. For Pete Sessions, election night ended with yet another resounding send-off to Washington. He won a ninth term, with 58 percent of the vote. But an analysis by The Dallas Morning News raises questions … Continue reading →

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Demographic change in the Panhandle

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

What’s happening in other parts of Texas is happening in West Texas, too. Whites no longer are the majority group in 17 counties in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains region, including Potter County, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. And based … Continue reading →

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Is immigration reform likely to happen now?

Posted on November 23, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

With President Obama’s victory powered in part by overwhelming support from Latino voters, and a dawning if grudging recognition from the GOP that they can’t continue to alienate this growing segment of the electorate, some kind of deal on immigration … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: City and county

Posted on November 19, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

If you know a little something about Excel (or in my case, OpenOffice Calc, which has the same basic functionality), it’s fairly straightforward to calculate the vote totals and percentages for various candidates in various county, state, or federal districts. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Sadler v Noriega and Sadler v Obama

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Day Two of precinct analysis, in which we take a look at the Senate results. As I did with the Presidential results, I’m going to compare the candidates from this year to the candidates from 2008. Dist Cruz Sadler Cornyn … Continue reading →

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Will health insurance exchanges be on the Lege’s agenda?

Posted on November 16, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

The deadline was today for states to decide what they want to do about implementing health insurance exchanges. At least eight Republican governors vowed not to implement the health-care law until after the November election. “I will make that decision … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for … Continue reading →

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How Latinos voted in Texas

Posted on November 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Latino Decisions publishes its poll of Latino voters on the eve of Election Day. Gary Segura and Matt Barreto of Latino Decisions webinar presentation today focused on the key insights generated from the ImpreMedia-Latino Decisions Election Eve Poll. The survey … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2012 | Tagged , , , , , , | 8 Comments

First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

Posted on November 8, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with … Continue reading →

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2012 election results

Posted on November 7, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

As I type this there are still a number of unsettled races in Texas, so things may change between now and tomorrow morning after we’ve all had an insufficient night’s sleep. But here’s how they stand at this time, and … Continue reading →

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Final EV totals

Posted on November 4, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting was up from 2008, but not quite as much as the initial hype might have led to you think. By the time early voting in Texas ended Friday night, an estimated two-thirds of those expected to cast a … Continue reading →

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Obama leads in poll of Harris County

Posted on November 1, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

More polling goodness for you. The poll conducted for KHOU 11 News and KUHF Houston Public Radio indicates Obama leads Romney in Harris County, but not by much. That gives some indication how election night might go for politicians running … Continue reading →

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Are Texas Latinos like Latinos elsewhere or not?

Posted on October 31, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Latino Decisions bemoans a disconnect between its poll numbers for Latino voters and what it’s seeing in the crosstabs of other recent national polls. In 1998 Harry Pachon and Rudy de la Garza wrote a report for the Tomas Rivera … Continue reading →

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UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Posted on October 30, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The … Continue reading →

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Early voting, one week in

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

We have completed one full week of early voting, and through Sunday a total of 362,827 people had voted in person, with an additional 53,131 ballot being cast by mail, for a grand total of 415,958. The updated spreadsheet is … Continue reading →

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Ticket splitters

Posted on October 23, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

For better or worse, we live in a polarized world. Often, knowing a candidate’s political party tells you most of what you need to know in a general election. But definitely not always, and this year in particular there are … Continue reading →

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Endorsement watch: For Wendy Davis

Posted on October 22, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Very nice. Two state legislators are running to represent a demographically changing senatorial District 10: the incumbent, Democrat Sen. Wendy Davis, and Republican state Rep. Mark Shelton. Davis, who defeated an entrenched incumbent four years ago, did not take long … Continue reading →

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Presidential campaign contributions in Texas

Posted on October 20, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I suspect there’s not much in this story that will surprise you. Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign raised nearly twice as much money in the greater Houston area than that of President Barack Obama – most of it from wealthier … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

Posted on October 19, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely … Continue reading →

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Mail ballots

Posted on October 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Campos has been tracking mail ballot requests to the Harris County Clerk. Here is what the County put out yesterday evening: As of this evening we have approved 71,101 applications and sent out 67,376 ballots. We have received 19,468 voted … Continue reading →

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Lyceum poll: Romney 58, Obama 39

Posted on October 3, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This one is just nuts. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, with 58 percent to the incumbent’s 39 percent, according to a new Texas Lyceum Poll. The same survey … Continue reading →

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How about those judicial races?

Posted on October 1, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron takes a look downballot. Democratic judges who surprised Harris County in a 2008 rout because of strong turnout for Barack Obama are bracing for a tough fight in November after seeing the GOP, which had a clean sweep … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Romney 52, Obama 41

Posted on September 24, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Another new poll of Texas, from YouGov: Republican Presidential hopeful Mitt Romney holds a solid, eleven-point lead over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 52% Romney to 41% Obama, in a poll of 1,254 registered voters statewide, conducted by YouGov. … Continue reading →

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What that Wilson Perkins poll really tells us

Posted on September 18, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

There’s something about that poll of Texas last week that I don’t think has gotten enough attention. I only mentioned it in passing myself, so I want to go back and spend a little more time on it. As I … Continue reading →

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Castro’s road show

Posted on September 16, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro, racking up the frequent flyer miles. On Saturday, Castro spoke to Democratic campaign workers at a strip mall near Fort Belvoir and to students at George Mason University in a coordinated effort by the Obama … Continue reading →

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