Tag Archives: Election 2012

Precinct analysis: Fort Bend Commissioners Court precincts

Posted on December 12, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I have not done Fort Bend precinct analyses in the past because I don’t get easily-worked-with CSV-format canvass reports from them after elections. However, it turns out that their election returns page for this year has a “Reports” button on … Continue reading →

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Trautman announces run for Harris County Clerk in 2018

Posted on December 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: As one of my long-time and best supporters, I wanted you to be one of the first to know that I have made the decision to run for Harris County Clerk in 2018! As you know, I … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: None of the above

Posted on December 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We have been told that this was a year where many people were unhappy with the two main choices they had for President. We looked at Presidential numbers in Harris County before, and now we’re going to look again, at … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Bennett v Sullivan

Posted on December 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Ann Harris Bennett was the only countywide Democratic candidate to be trailing on Election Day as the early voting totals were posted, but as the night went on she cut into the deficit and finally took the lead around 10 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Ryan v Leitner

Posted on December 5, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Harris County Attorney Vince Ryan was the only non-judicial incumbent elected in November. Here’s how his race looked. Dist Leitner Ryan Leitner% Ryan% ========================================== CD02 158,149 113,363 58.25% 41.75% CD07 135,129 116,091 53.79% 46.21% CD09 25,714 106,728 19.42% 80.58% CD10 … Continue reading →

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Time once again to discuss Latino political participation

Posted on December 1, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s jump right in. The long wait continues for Houston and Harris County residents eager for a steep uptick in elected Latino representation. Hispanic residents last year were 42 percent of the county population, up from 23 percent in 1990, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Ogg v Anderson

Posted on November 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Kim Ogg had the second highest vote total in Harris County this year. Let’s see how that looked at a more granular level. Dist Anderson Ogg Anderson% Ogg% ========================================== CD02 156,027 117,810 56.98% 43.02% CD07 135,065 118,837 53.20% 46.80% CD09 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: District courts

Posted on November 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Today we will look at the Harris County-specific judicial races, by which I mean the district courts plus two County Court benches. I’m going to begin with something a little different, which is a look at the distribution of how … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State courts

Posted on November 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We return to our tour of the precinct data with a look at the statewide judicial races. These tend to be interesting mostly as proxies for base partisan support, but there are variations that reflect qualities about the candidates. That’s … Continue reading →

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Sustaining the Harris County Democrats’ success

Posted on November 18, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

All things considered, I feel reasonably optimistic about Democratic prospects in Harris County going forward, but I felt that way in 2008 as well, so I certainly understand the inclination to be cautious. Democrats swept Harris County last Tuesday in … Continue reading →

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A theory about third parties

Posted on November 15, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Before I get to that theory, have you ever wondered about the people who vote straight ticket Libertarian or Green in Harris County? I got to wondering about them, because that’s the sort of thing that I think about at … Continue reading →

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Statewide review: 2016 was like 2008, but not in a good way

Posted on November 13, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s no point in beating around the bush, so I’ll just come out and say it: Despite the excitement about increases in voter registration and heavy early voting turnout. statewide Democratic candidates outside of Hillary Clinton generally did not do … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts: Statewide

Posted on November 10, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

See part 1 on Harris County here. The current statewide tally is Trump 52.39%, Clinton 43.34%. She received 3,848,617 votes to his 4,651,955. That’s an improvement of some 540K votes over Obama in 2012, which I certainly would have deemed … Continue reading →

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Initial thoughts: Harris County

Posted on November 10, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still not quite ready to resume regular blogging. I’ve got a few things drafted from before the election, several of which are non-political, that I’ll begin to put in the queue, and a couple of ones that were political … Continue reading →

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The new voters

Posted on November 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more data point before we get the actual data. A late surge of new voters helped Harris County achieve record early turnout and suggests that local registration drives paid off – although to which party’s benefit remains anyone’s guess … Continue reading →

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Today is Election Day

Posted on November 8, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart urges voters to prepare before heading to vote on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. “Harris County Voters can find their Election Day polling location and review the list of acceptable forms of identification … Continue reading →

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Races I’ll be watching on Tuesday, Legislative edition

Posted on November 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the legislative races I’ll be looking at to see what kind of a day it has been for Texas Democrats. After the 2012 general election, the Dems had 55 seats in the Lege. Thee Democrats lost in 2014, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Twelve: Nearly a million

Posted on November 6, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s your final daily EV report and your updated tracker spreadsheet. The final tally from Friday was 105,005 in person votes and 2,882 more mail ballots returned. That brings us to 882,580 people showing up at an early vote location, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Eleven: Last chance

Posted on November 4, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart announced within minutes after the polls opened this morning, that Harris County crossed the 700,982 voter benchmark setting a new record for early voters by personal appearance. With essentially two full days … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Ten: Who are these people?

Posted on November 3, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Are we seeing new voters in the early voting so far, or is it all the same old same old? More than a quarter of Harris County’s 2.2 million registered voters cast a ballot in-person or by mail last week, … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD135

Posted on November 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more look at a local legislative race. Novice political candidate Jesse A. Ybañez believes his focus on the people of the increasingly diverse Texas House District 135 makes him a better choice than longtime state Rep. Gary Elkins. Ybañez, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Nine: A brief comparison

Posted on November 2, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s a comparison of where the voters who cast their ballots through the first eight days of early voting came from in 2012 and in 2016: Dist 12 Day 8 12 Total Day 8% 16 Day 8 % of 2012 … Continue reading →

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Republicans: Still worried about the Trump effect in Texas

Posted on October 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

The continuing story. Texas Republicans are slowly coming to grips with the unthinkable: Hillary Clinton has a shot at winning the nation’s most iconic red state. The odds are long, they say, in a state that hasn’t voted Democratic for … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

Posted on October 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots … Continue reading →

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Crosswind/Statesman: Trump 45, Clinton 38

Posted on October 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

One more poll result, because why not. In the wake of recent polls indicating that deep red Texas might be a toss-up in the presidential race, a new Crosswind/American-Statesman Texas Pulse poll conducted Saturday through Monday shows Republican Donald Trump … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Five: Maybe the lines will be shorter next week

Posted on October 29, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Resources will be mobilized to ameliorate things. Harris County will add staff and equipment to early voting locations next week to help cut down long wait times fueled by a record surge of voter turnout, County Clerk Stan Stanart said. … Continue reading →

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UT/Trib: Trump 45, Clinton 42

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Even the UT/Texas Trib poll shows a tight Presidential race in Texas. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump held a three-percentage-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton on the eve of early voting in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Four: Just the facts

Posted on October 28, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here is your Day 4 EV report, and here as always is the spreadsheet that tracks early voting in Presidential elections going back to 2004. Long story short, another record-breaking day, with about the same volume (just over 76,000 in … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Three: The case for pessimism

Posted on October 27, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Dave Mann tells Texas Democrats to put those rose-tinted glasses away. On Monday, the Real Clear Politics site declared that Texas is up for grabs in the presidential election. The shift comes after a series of polls showing a tight … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Two: How long can we keep this up?

Posted on October 26, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Texas Monthly crunches some numbers from Day One: Digging further into the numbers, it seems as though the long-whispered awakening of Texas Democrats happened, at the very least, on day one. GOP consultant Derek Ryan, who published a detailed report … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day One: Hope you didn’t mind waiting on line

Posted on October 25, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Lots of people were out there with you. After more than 18 months of intensive election coverage, early voting kicked off in Harris County on Monday with long lines at some polling locations. As polls closed at 6 p.m., more … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD150

Posted on October 21, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

This could be interesting. The business card for Michael Shawn Kelly, a landscape architect who wants to represent the deep-red suburbs of far north Harris County in the Texas House, touts his conservative values and quotes the late Republican politician … Continue reading →

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The state of the polls

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race … Continue reading →

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Chron overview of HD23

Posted on October 19, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

We go to Galveston for one of the few interesting Legislative races in the area. A former Democratic state legislator is trying to recapture the Texas House District 23 seat from the first Republican to hold the office since Reconstruction. … Continue reading →

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