Tag Archives: Beto O’Rourke

Is this the year Tarrant County finally goes blue?

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Maybe. “Tarrant County is the 15th-largest county in the country, so it should get a lot of attention. And it’s the third-largest county in Texas, so it makes sense that there would be a lot of focus there,” said Mark … Continue reading →

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Some finance and fundraising bits

Posted on October 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Colin Allred keeps raking it in. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred raised $30.3 million for his Senate campaign in the third quarter of the year, outpacing U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s haul over the same three-month period, according to figures announced by … Continue reading →

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The “Can Allred win?” question

Posted on October 9, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

At least we’re asking the question. Usually, we don’t even get that. Democrats are closing the gap in their uphill campaign to unseat U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, with polls showing improvement for Democratic U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and national Democrats’ … Continue reading →

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National attention on the Allred-Cruz race

Posted on June 9, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Things are a little different now than they were in 2018. Also, Dems have very few even remotely realistic pickup opportunities this cycle, so. With more than four months left before Election Day 2018, Democrat Beto O’Rourke had campaigned in … Continue reading →

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Allred maintains his fundraising pace

Posted on April 17, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Gonna need to keep that going. U.S. Rep. Colin Allred raised over $9.5 million for his U.S. Senate campaign in this year’s first quarter, surpassing the campaign of his rival Sen. Ted Cruz. Notably, Allred has also raised more money … Continue reading →

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Does Ted Cruz think he might lose?

Posted on March 18, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Who knows what he thinks? U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz’s campaign is warning donors this week that he’s already tied with Colin Allred and bracing for a tougher 2024 reelection campaign than GOP voters might expect. The push comes less than … Continue reading →

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January 2024 campaign finance reports – Senate

Posted on February 10, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY: State offices Harris County offices The field is set, with one more person than we had in October. Again, until we’ve narrowed this down to at most two, I’ll do this separately from the Congressional candidates. Here are the … Continue reading →

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SCOTx declines to revive oligarch nuisance lawsuit against Beto

Posted on December 18, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Good. The Texas Supreme Court said Friday it would not consider Republican megadonor Kelcy Warren’s defamation lawsuit against former Democratic gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke after a state appeals court dismissed it earlier this year. The all-GOP court denied Warren’s petition … Continue reading →

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Time for another chat about voter registration and turnout

Posted on November 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Let’s do it. Texas Democrats came away from Beto O’Rourke’s surprisingly narrow 2018 defeat to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz with a simple plan: register to vote the millions of nonvoting Texans that demographics suggest lean Democrat and electoral victories will … Continue reading →

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July 2023 campaign finance reports – Congress

Posted on July 18, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

What a difference three months has made. Back in April you could have counted the races and candidates of interest on your fingers. Now with the larger Senate race, the openings in CDs 18 and 32, and a few other … Continue reading →

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Allred begins campaigning

Posted on June 14, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Go get started early. Democrats were ecstatic when U.S. Rep. Colin Allred announced his bid against U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, the Texas Republican they have come closest to beating in more than two decades of GOP dominance in statewide elections. … Continue reading →

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Oligarch nuisance lawsuit against Beto finally tossed

Posted on June 14, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Sure took long enough. A state appeals court dismissed Republican megadonor Kelcy Warren’s defamation lawsuit against Beto O’Rourke, ruling Friday that statements by the 2022 Democratic nominee for governor were protected by the First Amendment. The Austin-based 3rd Court of … Continue reading →

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Sen. Gutierrez talks about 2024

Posted on April 28, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

He’s officially still thinking about it and will announce after the session. I’d say it’s a strong bet he’s already decided to run. State Senator Roland Gutierrez said Wednesday he’s going to wait before deciding on running for U.S. Senate. … Continue reading →

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On the (likely) future Biden/Trump matchup

Posted on April 27, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

It’s way too early to pay any attention to state polling, but there are a few general principles to discuss here. President Joe Biden announced his reelection bid on Tuesday, setting up a potential rematch with former President Donald Trump … Continue reading →

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Sen. Gutierrez appears to be getting set to challenge Ted Cruz

Posted on April 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Very interesting. State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, a San Antonio Democrat who has become a fierce champion of the families impacted by the Uvalde school shooting, is likely to run against Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024, The Texas Tribune … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: State House 2022

Posted on March 20, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

We have data. Texas Democrats and Republicans are beginning to gear up for a presidential election cycle in which opportunities to flip seats for Congress and the Legislature appear limited. It’s a natural outcome after Republicans redrew legislative and congressional … Continue reading →

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What will it take to keep those ten appellate court benches we won in 2018?

Posted on February 21, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you may recall, Democrats won a ton of Appellate Court races in 2018. Ten of them, in fact, five each on the First and Fourteenth Courts of Appeals, the first such victories since winning a lone bench in 2008. … Continue reading →

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What I want from the next HCDP Chair

Posted on February 6, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

As you know, the Harris County Democratic Party will soon have a new Chair. And as you know, I am a Democratic precinct chair, which means I’m one of the several hundred people that will vote on who that is. … Continue reading →

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Is it finally the time for Julian Castro?

Posted on February 4, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

This story is mostly about Ted Cruz and whether he might run for President again in 2024; the tone of the story is that he probably won’t. No one cares about that, but because it is a story about 2024 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Inside and out of the city

Posted on January 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

Most years we don’t get the data to differentiate between votes cast by residents of Houston and votes cast by Harris County non-Houston residents. There needs to be a citywide referendum of the ballot in order to get at this … Continue reading →

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Uvalde parents will take their fight to the Lege

Posted on January 17, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

They’re not going to get what they want and they know it, but they’re still going to fight. I have so much respect for them. More than seven months after a teenage gunman killed 21 people at Robb Elementary School, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The not-as-good statewide races

Posted on January 2, 2023 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer Better statewide races The difference between these statewide races and the ones we have already looked at, including the Governor’s race, is very simple: These Republican candidates did better … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: The better statewide races

Posted on December 30, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread Hidalgo versus Mealer As noted before, Greg Abbott got 490K votes in Harris County, far less than the 559K he received in 2018 running against Lupe Valdez. Of the other six races … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Hidalgo versus Mealer

Posted on December 29, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott Beto versus the spread We’ve looked at the Governor’s race, in which Beto was the top Democratic performer. Now we’ll look at the next highest profile race, in which the result was a surprise to some … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus the spread

Posted on December 19, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

PREVIOUSLY Beto versus Abbott So last time we saw the numbers for the 2022 Governor’s race. But what numbers need in order to be meaningful is context, and that means other numbers to compare them to. We’re going to do … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Beto versus Abbott

Posted on December 14, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

All right, I have the full landscape data for Harris County and the November 2022 election, and I’ll be doing my usual thing with it. There’s a lot of data and a lot of ways to explore it, some of … Continue reading →

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State and county election result relationships: Tarrant County

Posted on December 12, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In years past, Tarrant County was a pretty close bellwether for election results in the state of Texas. From 2004 through 2016, the closeness of their Presidential numbers with the statewide numbers was eerie. But since 2018 the talk has … Continue reading →

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Yes, we’re talking about Texas Senate 2024

Posted on December 8, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Gromer Jeffers points out that Ted Cruz may run for both President and re-election to the Senate in 2024, which he can do under the law that was passed to allow LBJ to run for Vice President in 1960 (and … Continue reading →

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Beto tries again to get ridiculous defamation lawsuit dismissed

Posted on December 8, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

Hope he has better luck here. The gubernatorial election is over, but Kelcy Warren’s defamation lawsuit against Beto O’Rourke lives on. Warren, the Dallas pipeline tycoon, sued O’Rourke in February over accusations he made on the campaign trail that Warren … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Specifically, my precincts

Posted on December 4, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I’m still waiting for the full landscape canvass data from Harris County – things are a bit up in the air right now because of the lawsuit filed by the local GOP, but I expect to get that data soon, … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: How the 2022 Harris County State Rep candidates did versus the 2020 and 2018 results

Posted on November 28, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I still don’t have a full canvass of Harris County, so I’m looking around to see what kind of analyses I can do in the meantime. For this post, I’m comparing how the candidates in the contested State Rep contests … Continue reading →

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We do need to find someone to run against Ted Cruz

Posted on November 27, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t know who that ought to be yet, but surely someone is out there. Ted Cruz said on Saturday that he would seek a third term in the U.S. Senate in 2024, though he also did not rule out … Continue reading →

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Yeah, the crypto lovers here are still all in

Posted on November 27, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

I mean, at least they’re consistent. The crypto community in Austin was buzzing. Hundreds of investors, legislators, professionals and enthusiasts packed the halls of the AT&T Hotel and Conference Center at the University of Texas on Nov. 17-18 for the … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Early voting versus Election Day

Posted on November 21, 2022 by Charles Kuffner

In his pre-election analyses of the early vote, Republican consultant Derek Ryan (whose numbers I have used in the past) suggested that there was still a significant number of regular Republican voters who had not voted yet, which could make … Continue reading →

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