Tag Archives: John McCain

The “blue spine” and the rural counties

Posted on November 15, 2020 by Charles Kuffner

Point: For the third consecutive election cycle, Democrats saw their advantage over Republicans grow in the 21 counties along Interstate 35, allowing them to further chip into the Republican dominance that has lasted for nearly three decades. The result was … Continue reading →

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As goes Tarrant

Posted on February 19, 2017 by Charles Kuffner

The Trib ponders the one big urban county that is not like the others. Among the state’s five biggest counties, Tarrant is the only one that hasn’t backed a Democratic presidential candidate in the past decade. The 2016 presidential election … Continue reading →

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Races I’ll be watching on Tuesday, Legislative edition

Posted on November 7, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

Here are the legislative races I’ll be looking at to see what kind of a day it has been for Texas Democrats. After the 2012 general election, the Dems had 55 seats in the Lege. Thee Democrats lost in 2014, … Continue reading →

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Early voting, Day Six: A good first week for Democrats

Posted on October 30, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

There’s still a week to go, but so far, so good. Harris County residents cast more ballots in the first four days of early voting than five states did in the entire 2012 presidential election. Locally, the number of ballots … Continue reading →

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The state of the polls

Posted on October 20, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’m just trying to get a handle on the numbers, with the idea of establishing some kind of guide for what to expect in the Presidential race in Texas. Bear with me. The RCP average for the two-way Trump/Clinton race … Continue reading →

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It’s not crazy to think that a downballot Democrat could win statewide this year

Posted on August 22, 2016 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll get to that headline in a minute. I’ve got some reading to sort through first. We’ll start with the most pessimistic, or perhaps the least blue-sky, story of how things are likely to go. Arizona. Georgia. Utah. Indiana. Is … Continue reading →

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What the future may hold for Wendy Davis

Posted on June 28, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Patricia Kilday Hart has her take on the Wendy Davis phenomenon, including the reaction of some Republicans to it. For both proponents and opponents of SB 5, the legislation that would have banned abortions past 20 weeks of pregnancy and … Continue reading →

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Taking back the Texas Senate

Posted on June 10, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Colin Strother says the Democrats should not overlook opportunities to make gains in the upper chamber of the Legislature. The conventional wisdom is that Democrats need a miracle to pick up any single seat, much less turn the chamber Blue. … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Comparing 2012 and 2008

Posted on February 12, 2013 by Charles Kuffner

Though the data isn’t yet posted on individual members’ webpages, I have gotten a copy of the 2012 election results by State Rep district, for which there was much rejoicing. The first question of interest is how much the 2008 … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: Obama v Obama

Posted on November 15, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

So as mentioned before I now have a draft canvass for Harris County. There’s a lot of data to go through, and I’ll probably publish most of what I find after the holiday. One thing I’d like to share for … Continue reading →

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First pass at analyzing the 2012 results

Posted on November 8, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

This is kind of a brain dump, based on the information available now. I’ll have plenty more to say once precinct data has been released. – The current tally in the Presidential race on the Secretary of State webpage, with … Continue reading →

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UT/TT: Romney 55, Obama 39

Posted on October 30, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here are some new poll numbers for Texas from UT and the Tribune. Republican Mitt Romney has a commanding lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the presidential race in Texas, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. The … Continue reading →

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Early voting, one week in

Posted on October 29, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

We have completed one full week of early voting, and through Sunday a total of 362,827 people had voted in person, with an additional 53,131 ballot being cast by mail, for a grand total of 415,958. The updated spreadsheet is … Continue reading →

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YouGov: Romney 55, Obama 41

Posted on October 19, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

YouGov has an updated poll of Texas. Republican challenger Mitt Romney gets a solid majority of the votes of likely voters over Democratic President Barack Obama in Texas, 55% Romney to 41% Obama, in a YouGov poll of 958 likely … Continue reading →

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Mail ballots

Posted on October 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Campos has been tracking mail ballot requests to the Harris County Clerk. Here is what the County put out yesterday evening: As of this evening we have approved 71,101 applications and sent out 67,376 ballots. We have received 19,468 voted … Continue reading →

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New pollster says Romney leads 55-40 in Texas

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

It would figure that the day after I complain about a lack of polling data in Texas we get a fresh poll result for the state. Thanks to a lopsided lead among white voters, Romney is leading President Barack Obama … Continue reading →

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“Waiting for Godot” in Texas

Posted on September 12, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this. “It’s only a matter of time.” For more than a decade, that thought has provided solace to the out-of-power Democrats who dream of turning Texas blue, much like it was before Ronald … Continue reading →

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A look at HD136

Posted on September 11, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

The Statesman takes a look at the new State Rep. district in Williamson County. All county and state elected officeholders from Williamson County are Republicans. The party has long dominated the area. But Democrats are eyeing the new district as … Continue reading →

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Sadler’s challenge

Posted on September 5, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Democratic Senate hopeful Paul Sadler is a strong candidate with limited resources. Where have I heard that before? In Victoria on a recent Saturday afternoon, the candidate for the U.S. Senate had the crowd on its feet, the shouts and … Continue reading →

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The Trib’s strange samples

Posted on May 22, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

Here’s the UT/Texas Trib poll result the Trib should have reported: Q19. If the 2012 general election for U.S. president were held today and Mitt Romney was the Republican nominee, would you vote for [randomize] Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, someone … Continue reading →

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Santorum surges in January UT/Trib poll

Posted on February 21, 2012 by Charles Kuffner

There will come a day when using the word “surge” to describe the now-frontrunning Republican Presidential candidate in Texas will get old. That day has not arrived yet. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania has a commanding lead among Republican … Continue reading →

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PPP: Perry takes lead on Obama in Texas

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

Not by that much, however. Rick Perry has an under water approval rating in Texas and he’s leading Barack Obama by a smaller margin than John McCain won the state by in 2008…but at least he is leading Obama, which … Continue reading →

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2012 still looks like 2008 so far

Posted on June 17, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

The Texas Lyceum put out a series of polls this week – you can see links to them here – but it was the Thursday poll that interested me the most, as it was related to the 2012 elections. Here’s … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2012 | Tagged , , , , , , | 7 Comments

Maybe Perry for President would be good for us

Posted on May 28, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

When George W. Bush began being talked about as a Presidential candidate, the story line on him was that he was a well-liked, popular Governor who had bipartisan appeal and support in the state. Outgoing Democratic Lt. Gov. Bob Bullock … Continue reading →

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Obama and Texas 2012

Posted on May 23, 2011 by Charles Kuffner

Jonathan Chait notes that recently the Obama re-election team has said it will put money into Texas, and observes that this is part of a bigger strategy. In the narrow analysis, Texas is a deeply Republican state. Obama lost it … Continue reading →

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Saturday video break: It gets worse

Posted on November 20, 2010 by Charles Kuffner

Remember when being a maverick meant something? The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon – Thurs 11p / 10c

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The immigration wedge issue for the GOP

Posted on August 2, 2010 by Charles Kuffner

I have three things to say about this story. Evangelical ministers in Texas and across the nation are splitting off from the hard right, declaring immigration reform is needed that includes a path to citizenship without first deporting millions of … Continue reading →

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You tell ’em, Chuck

Posted on May 12, 2010 by Charles Kuffner

Charles Barkley, speaking to ESPN’s Dan Patrick, talks sense about the Arizona “Show me your papers” law: DP: You’re a resident of Arizona, I’m curious if you think baseball should get involved with the immigration law. Do you like that … Continue reading →

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Population and voting trends: 2004 and 2008 Presidential election

Posted on March 30, 2010 by Charles Kuffner

Taking a look at the voting trends in the fastest growing counties made me want to know more about this, so I broke out the spreadsheets and took a look. I’ll present the results in a three-part series, starting today … Continue reading →

Posted in Election 2008 | Tagged , , , , , , , , , | 8 Comments

Where the votes are going

Posted on March 26, 2010 by Charles Kuffner

Matt Stiles looks at Census data and notes a political point. Seven Texas counties — Rockwall, Williamson, Collin, Hays, Fort Bend, Montgomery and Denton — are listed among the nation’s 30 fastest-growing areas, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates released … Continue reading →

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From the “Will they never learn?” files

Posted on December 19, 2009 by Charles Kuffner

Back when I was having my Trib-based conversation with David Benzion, he mentioned a web ad that was released by the Texas GOP to attack Bill White in anticipation of his jump to the Governor’s race. That ad featured a … Continue reading →

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The Texas Trib and its polls

Posted on November 6, 2009 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve been so immersed in the Houston elections that I forgot to give a warm welcome to the Texas Tribune, which made its debut on Tuesday. I really like the look of the site, I like their lineup of writers, … Continue reading →

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On the matter of turnout

Posted on July 23, 2009 by Charles Kuffner

This Star-Telegram story about turnout in the 2008 election versus turnout in the 2004 election has got some people talking. The presidential race between Barack Obama and John McCain sent more Texans to the polls last year, but the state … Continue reading →

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Challenging Chet

Posted on May 11, 2009 by Charles Kuffner

Via Eye on Williamson, I see the national GOP is once again looking to try to beat Rep. Chet Edwards in CD17. There’s little question Republicans are looking to target Rep. Chet Edwards (D-Texas), who could face yet another tough … Continue reading →

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