Tag Archives: turnout

My quadrennial warning to be careful with charts and percentages

Posted on November 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From City of Yes: The sun came up Wednesday morning, but for many, no doubt, our proverbial American “shining city on a hill” had lost some of its luster. While the presidential election results have disappointed many city dwellers, the … Continue reading →

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Republicans performed more or less at 2020 levels in Harris County

Posted on November 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Obviously, the Republicans did well in Harris County this year, better than I expected for sure. They won some judicial races – they’re probably kicking themselves for not contesting more of them – and in general came a lot closer … Continue reading →

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Precinct analysis: In my neighborhood

Posted on November 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I won’t have access to a Harris County canvass for a couple of weeks, and I may or may not do some countywide comparisons, but I did wonder about how the vote went in my neighborhood. I do a lot … Continue reading →

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Just a couple of thoughts because I’m not ready for more yet

Posted on November 7, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

There’s an older gentleman who rides his bike around the neighborhood. I see him pretty regularly when I’m out walking the dog. We always wave hello as we pass by. On Sunday he pulled his bike over to the curb … Continue reading →

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A brief list of things I’ll be watching for today

Posted on November 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

In no particular order… 1. I don’t expect Democrats to win statewide in Texas. It would be great, it would do a world of good, but I’d be setting myself up for disappointment if I start there. What I want … Continue reading →

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Final November 2024 early voting: Definitely short

Posted on November 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting is done, and I have to say, we didn’t get to where I expected we would: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 57,059 In Person = 1,175,901 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eleven: One more day

Posted on November 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Hard to believe, it seems like this election has been going on since the late 90s, but we have one day of early voting to go. Your early voting results through Thursday, Day Eleven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Ten: Slower so far than I expected

Posted on October 31, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’ve got two days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Wednesday, Day Ten: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting are Mail = 51,477 In Person = 961,273 Total = 1,012,750 … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Eight: Second Monday

Posted on October 29, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re in the second and final week of early voting. There are now four days of EV remaining. Your early voting results through Monday, Day Eight: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after eight days of early voting … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Seven: The weekend

Posted on October 28, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Just going to get right into it here. Your early voting results through Sunday, Day Seven: 2024 2020 2016 2008 and 2012 The numbers after seven days of early voting are Mail = 44,805 In Person = 686,937 Total = … Continue reading →

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Comparing early voting apples to apples

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron’s writeup of the first five days of early voting is an incomplete picture. Is turnout up or down in Texas in the 2024 election? It depends on how you look at it. Since early voting began Monday, more … Continue reading →

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UTSA poll for October: A little weird

Posted on October 27, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Not really sure how to explain this other than to say polls be weird sometimes. A new survey from UTSA’s Center for Public Opinion Research indicated that in bright blue San Antonio, support has been growing for Democrat Colin Allred in his uphill … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Five: The average so far

Posted on October 26, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We’re at the end of the first week of early voting – I was able to wait for the Day Five report before writing this, so I’m caught up for now. It was a very busy week. Let’s take a … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Three: Let’s not overanalyze this

Posted on October 25, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Lone Star Left caught my eye on Wednesday as they looked at the statewide early voting data so far. All day, I waited for a full update from the Secretary of State (SoS) regarding the Day 1 early voter turnout. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day Two: On average

Posted on October 24, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Reading this story gave me an idea for how to talk about early voting so far compared to 2020. The first day of early voting for El Paso County’s general election drew 31% fewer voters than the record-setting 2020 race. … Continue reading →

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November 2024 early voting Day One: Where are the mail ballots?

Posted on October 23, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

As I said yesterday, the Day One early voting report came in a little too late on Monday night for me to queue this up for Tuesday. It’s also the case that comparing this year to 2020 is not going … Continue reading →

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Make that 18.6 million registered voters

Posted on October 22, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

That’s a lot. Texas added nearly 200,000 voters to its rolls in the two weeks before the deadline to register, according to state data, giving the state a record-breaking 18.6 million voters going into this year’s election. Since 2016, when … Continue reading →

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On longshot candidates

Posted on October 14, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

The Chron looks at candidates running in districts they are highly unlikely to win. I have a few thoughts. In the 2022 election, a Houston Chronicle analysis found only about 5% of Texans lived in districts with competitive races for … Continue reading →

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Eighteen million registered voters

Posted on October 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Number go up. Texas has been one of the nation’s fastest-growing states since the 1970s, but its voter rolls have at times been stagnant. From 2000 to 2012, the number of registered voters grew by 1.2 million. In only the … Continue reading →

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Is the Texas Republican Party actually worried?

Posted on September 29, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I hope so. The Republican Party of Texas has vowed a “major investment” in South Texas legislative races amid ongoing criticism from county-level leaders over its fundraising and voter outreach efforts. On Monday, the party announced a commitment to knock … Continue reading →

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Scott and McCrutcheon win HCAD runoffs

Posted on June 16, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Not much to say, you can see the live results. There were 12,479 total mail ballots, so another 1,436 were received after Tuesday. A bit more than 11K votes had been counted as of 10 PM and two thirds of … Continue reading →

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HCAD Runoff Day is today

Posted on June 15, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth announced that the June 15 Uniform Runoff Election Day is this Saturday. There are 131 Election Day vote centers open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. across Harris County. “A runoff election … Continue reading →

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June HCAD special election runoff early voting Day Nine: On to Saturday

Posted on June 12, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

And we are done with early voting for the HCAD runoffs. Here’s the final EV report. Let’s have another chart, shall we? Month Mail Early Total ============================== May 14,152 19,500 33,652 June 11,043 18,048 29,091 As predicted yesterday, we have … Continue reading →

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June HCAD special election runoff early voting Day Eight: Let’s not be too pessimistic about turnout

Posted on June 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I was struck by the following passage in this Houston Landing story about the HCAD runoff elections. Turnout in the Place 1 race was just 2.1 percent of Harris County’s 2.56 million registered voters, according to Harris County Clerk’s Office … Continue reading →

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A look at recent trends in early, mail, and Election Day voting

Posted on June 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I’ve noted before how I completely overestimated Election Day voting totals in the November/December 2023 and March 2024 races, based on recent past data from similar elections. I’ve tentatively concluded that even for races where a lot of Election Day … Continue reading →

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Final EV totals for the May 2024 primary runoffs

Posted on May 26, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Here are your final EV totals for the May 2024 primary runoffs. I’ll go ahead and break out a chart, as per tradition: Party Mail Early Total ============================== Dem 11,534 16,421 27,955 GOP 662 1,861 2,523 Again, one must remember … Continue reading →

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Primary Runoff early voting, Day One: First of two runoffs

Posted on May 21, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I don’t plan to follow the early voting totals on a day by day basis for the primary runoffs. I’ll at least have the final totals in addition to Day One, and I may have one more in there if … Continue reading →

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Election 3 of 4 for SD15 is up next

Posted on May 11, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Early voting for the primary runoffs starts May 20, which is to say a week from Monday. Are we not excited? Few voters paid attention to Saturday’s state Senate District 15 special election that saw emergency room nurse Molly Cook … Continue reading →

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Some further special election stuff

Posted on May 7, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We begin with this from the inbox. The Harris County Clerk’s Office posted the unofficial May 4 Uniform and Special Elections results on the Harris Votes website early Sunday morning, with 56,612 ballots cast in total. About 2% of Harris … Continue reading →

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May 2024 Harris County special election results

Posted on May 5, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

Election live results are here. As of the 11 PM update, in which 118 of 151 voting centers had reported, Molly Cook was easily winning the SD15 special election, with about 56% of the vote. In the HCAD elections: Position … Continue reading →

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The SD15 effect on the HCAD elections

Posted on May 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We have had two elections going on these past weeks. I’ve done my best to bring attention to the three HCAD elections, but they have gone on alongside the special election in SD15. While the stakes in that one are … Continue reading →

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Election Day for HCAD and SD15 is tomorrow

Posted on May 3, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

From the inbox: Harris County Clerk Teneshia Hudspeth reminds citizens that Election Day for the Uniform and Special Elections is this Saturday, May 4. Harris County uses the countywide polling place program, meaning voters can vote at any of the … Continue reading →

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Final May 2024 special election early voting: The usual pattern holds

Posted on May 1, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

We come to the end of the early voting period for this weird and not really wanted May special election – okay, not wanted for HCAD, the SD15 special was fine and normal. All along we’ve tried to guess at … Continue reading →

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May 2024 special election early voting, Day Eight: A little bit of an uptick

Posted on April 30, 2024 by Charles Kuffner

I’ll cut right to the chase: Here’s your Day Eight early voting report for the May 4 HCAD and SD15 special elections. As the penultimate day of early voting, as well as the first day of a truncated Week Two, … Continue reading →

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