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The Donald is spurring people to register to vote

Just another data point for your consideration.

Registration among Hispanic voters is skyrocketing in a presidential election cycle dominated by Donald Trump and loud GOP cries to close the border.

Arturo Vargas, executive director of the National Association of Elected and Appointed Officials, projects 13.1 million Hispanics will vote nationwide in 2016, compared to 11.2 million in 2012 and 9.7 million in 2008.

Many of those new Hispanic voters are also expected to vote against Trump if he is the Republican nominee, something that appears much more likely after the front-runner’s sweeping primary victories Tuesday in five East Coast states.

[…]

Many of the newly registered Hispanic voters are in California and Texas, relatively safe states for Democrats and Republicans, respectively.

In fact, because so many Hispanic voters live in those states, the effect of the rising registration numbers will be somewhat undercut, according to Vargas.

Still, rising registration rates among Hispanics in Colorado, Florida and Nevada could make it easier for the Democratic candidate to retain those swing states. Even Arizona could be in play, say some poll watchers.

Registration is a game-changer with Hispanic voters.

Only about 48 percent of eligible Hispanics vote, but nearly 80 percent of registered Hispanics go to the ballot box.

Emphasis mine. The story is primarily about swing states, because this sort of story always is, but as you know it’s the effect on Texas that interests me. Here’s a subsequent Chron story that adds a local angle.

Across the nation, non-profits say they are registering Hispanics and helping residents become citizens at faster rates than ever before, many of them mobilized by a desire to vote against the billionaire developer.

“That’s the No. 1 name that comes up all the time,” said Claudia Ortega-Hogue, vice president of the Houston-area League of Women Voters. “There is fear, and there is anger.”

Since last summer, when Trump first referred to Mexicans as criminals, Ortega-Hogue said her organization began registering more than 80 percent of new citizens at naturalization ceremonies compared to the 60 percent that is average. Many have long held green cards but told volunteers they naturalized now to vote against Trump. The process, from turning in an application to the final swearing-in ceremony, takes about six months, making May crunch time for those seeking to participate in November.

“The comments that Trump has made has really increased the numbers of people wanting to be involved,” Ortega-Hogue said.

Average monthly citizenship applications across the country spiked nearly 15 percent to about 64,800 between August and January, the most recent government data available, compared to the same period the year before. In Texas, some 66,000 immigrants became citizens in 2015, about a quarter more than in the previous year.

[…]

In the past, volunteers had to approach people and “almost twist their arms” for them to sign up to vote, said Carlos Duarte, who oversees Texas for Mi Familia Vota, a national group focused on boosting Latino voter registration.

“What is different now is that people approach us,” Duarte said. “They would always make these comments, and it was very heavily a reaction against Donald Trump.”

[…]

A sizeable Hispanic push could impact down-ballot elections, particularly in Harris County, which has the country’s largest Latino population after Los Angeles, more than 1.9 million.

The county went to President Barack Obama in 2012 by only some 970 votes, and for the first time in over three decades now leans majority-Democratic, according to a survey last month by Rice University’s Kinder Institute for Urban Research.

Tellingly, most of that pickup for Democrats is among Latino respondents who are eligible but not registered to vote, said the report’s author, Stephen Klineberg.

Mobilizing these and other Hispanics could imperil two dozen Republican judges in the county and more than 50 around the state, as well as the Harris County District Attorney and sheriff, said Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University.

“With Trump’s track record thus far of making statements portraying immigrants as racists and murderers and building a wall, it’s a ready-made campaign commercial against him for Univision,” Jones said. “Trump on the ballot could really be serious trouble for Harris County Republicans.”

It could also hurt a few Republican legislators in strong Hispanic districts in Houston, Dallas and San Antonio, including Gilbert Peña in Pasadena. And it might add a Democratic congressional seat in the 23rd district, which is currently represented by Republican Will Hurd and stretches from San Antonio to the Mexican border.

See here for more on the Houston Area Survey. I’ve written about this before, so add this to the collection. I will be very interested to see what voter registration numbers look like when they come out. Anything that Democrats can do to abet those efforts will be well worth it.

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19 Comments

  1. mollusk says:

    Between 1948 and the passage of Prop. 187, California went R for president 9 times out of 10. Since then, it’s been Clinton both times, Shrub both times, and Obama both times. Before, five of seven governors since ’48 were R. Since Prop. 187, California’s only R governor has been The Ahnuld.

    As many have observed, Texas isn’t a red state, it’s a non voting state. With any amount of luck, The Donald will change that – or at least help the process along.

  2. manny says:

    I for one will vote straight Democrat this year, have never done that and often vote for Republican candidates. All my brothers and sisters are also voting against Trump as a family we are split normally with R and D.

    I already sent money to HRC, first time I have given to a presidential candidate.

    Harris County Republicans know they may trouble winning seats in November. So Trump is having an effect, how much remains to be seen.

  3. brad m says:

    While voting for my local school board member this past weekend I had a conversation with a supporter of Paul Simpson for Harris County Republican leader in his upcoming runoff election. She acknowledged the challenge that Harris County Republicans will have this election cycle due to the top of the ticket with Trump.

    And frankly I think new Hispanic voters will continue voting in future elections too making this a potential sea change in Harris County where the Dems will weather the lackluster off year elections where the local positions bounce back and forth between Dem and Rep.

    While I am an independent I could very well see myself making significant donations to the Clinton campaign due to my disgust at Trump and the damage he could do to or country’s standing in the world, not to mention damage domestically to our economy.

  4. Bill Daniels says:

    If the premise of the article is true, it is a testament to Reagan’s amnesty. After all, those formerly illegal alien folks and their offspring would be the ones to think nothing is wrong with anyone, everyone, and the kitchen sink just pouring over here, sin papeles, because that’s how they did it.

    You’d think those who came here legally, and their offspring, on the other hand, would be in favor of Trump. You’d also think that any Hispanic who bothers to think with his/her wallet when voting would be in favor of Trump. All those illegals pouring across? Yeah, they will work harder and cheaper than their legal brethren, making it more difficult for the legal folks to find work, and to increase their wages. Want to “fight for $ 15? Boot out the people who will gladly work harder for much less, and be happy about it.

  5. Paul Kubosh says:

    Bill,

    Shhhhh…..remember the democrat party is very close to electing a socialist. They don’t like hearing that talk.

    Here is the prediction. Trump beats the democrat opponent whoever that maybe.

  6. voter_worker says:

    Mr Kubosh, Sanders is out and you know it. As for predictions, after the last 6 months, there are a lot of defective crystal balls in the landfill. I’m not willing to call it this early.

  7. Paul Kubosh says:

    Well I believe he is out also…however, I stand by my statement of “very close”. The Socialist is winning a lot of states. It is almost like no one has ever taken an economics course. However, that is not unique to the Democrat side. The Republicans havn’t taken an economics course either.

    I would love to see Sanders have more earned delegates then Clinton and then turn around and lose because of the Superdelegates. That would be funny. Almost as funny as watching Romney pull for Clinton.

    On another note: I caught a lot grief because I wouldn’t vote for Romney. (Yes I voted for Obama) I always said Romney was really a democrat. Sure enough he is proving me right.

    I would rather vote for a Democrat any day who sticks by his guns. That way I know what they believe. Their is honor in that. I can’t stand a lying Republican who tells me they believe what I do then vote the other way.

  8. manny says:

    Really Bill, racist a little, naw a lot in my opinion. Actually bigot as brown folks are considered to belong to the same race as the white folk.

    Kubosh how is the bond and traffic business? Are the Kubosh businesses still accepting money from “Illegals”?

    Wonder what would happen if businesses refused to do business with them?

  9. Paul Kubosh says:

    Manny… I think you are way to sensitive. I fight harder for illegals everyday then anyone I personally know.. I fight for them in the Street. Not on worthless blogs only read by blowhards like you and me. Come walk a day in my shoes.

    If I am racist then so is the word diversity.

  10. Bill Daniels says:

    @Manny,

    Is anything I stated not true?

  11. voter_worker says:

    Mr Daniels, the natural economic order is free flow of capital and labor. Workers from other countries are “illegal” only because advocates of government intervention in economic affairs make it so. We as a nation are now in an after the fact situation; the mass migration has already occured and persisting in thinking of 11million human beings as “illegal” just isn’t rational, in my opinion.

  12. manny says:

    Bill all of it, why assume that if one is legal, one has to think like you do. As Kubosh stated if you had walked in my shoes you would not think like you do.

    Kubosh, yes, but because I have seen racism and bigotry all my life. I fight for the right of ignorant hillbillies also, oh that didn’t come out correct. Tell me Kubosh how do you tell the difference between “illegals” and “legals” if their features are the same. Kubosh people are not “illegals”. If you can’t understand that there is really not much that can be discussed. Kinda of the I am not a racist, I have a colored maid, mentality from the 50s.

    Kubosh I was registering voters when I was in my teens, involved in numerous civil right marches and with numerous civil right groups in my late teens and 20s and still protesting in my 50s.

    Tell me Kubosh what do you do for “illegals” that does not involve a fee?

  13. Paul Kubosh says:

    You were not registering illegals. This is the only place you can be found. You sir are a racist who has a vested interest in racism’s continued curse to give you meaning. Without it you have nothing.

  14. manny says:

    Paul very interesting comment, notice you did not reply what you do that does not require a fee. Actually before my teens I helped my father to convince people to pay a “Poll Tax” for the right to vote.

    I am a bigot have very little tolerance for people who act like racists and bigots when that their racism is based on how God created persons that look different from them or come from different cultures.

    Assuming you believe in a heaven and a hell, I will venture to say that the entity that will judge me will make that decision, not irrelevant humans.

  15. Bill Daniels says:

    @voter: One of the basic things a government does is control who comes in and out of their sovereign territory. This isn’t a bad thing, and legal immigration should take into account the needs of a country. Need low skilled manual labor to build railroads? Import a bunch of cheap to hire Chinese. At this point in our history, though, we have enough low skilled folks, and enough folks already on WIC, food stamps, etc. We already have enough people with 6 kids whose apartment property taxes don’t even begin to cover the cost of the schooling, free breakfast, free lunch, etc. of those kids. At some point, a government ought to be able to exercise control over who can be here and who cannot.

    Drive around Houston. We have more than enough low skilled takers, and it’s time to return those that don’t belong to back where they do belong. The fault for not having done that already is ours, but just because we have made a mistake, that doesn’t mean we should continue with that mistake. Do we tell alcoholics, “sure, you already started, why try and quit now?”

    And yes, this is exactly an economic argument. The illegal workers will work harder, for less money, and be less likely to complain about working conditions than their legal counterparts. This depresses wages for everyone, legal and illegal alike.

    @Manny: I think logically, and assume that, in the end, other people think logically, too. Remove emotion from the equation, and you are left with the economic truth that illegals depress wages for citizens and those here legally, especially for low skilled citizens. That’s a truth that La Raza, the “fight for $ 15” folks, etc. would prefer that you ignore, in favor of the emotional argument, that anyone who points this out is waycist.

    And not to talk out of turn, but I bet Kubosh can tell the difference between legal folks and illegals the same way anyone else can…..”so, Mr. xxxxx, you are charged with speeding and no DL. If you actually have a DL, we can get that charge dismissed. Do you have one? Have one but it has been suspended for some reason? No and no?

    [light bulb moment]

    That’s how he knows when his client is illegal. Doesn’t really matter what the client looks like.

  16. voter_worker says:

    @Bill Daniels. I hear you, but from my perspective the GOP is trapped in an unresolvable contradiction between “freedom” and “small government” and support for the free market on the one hand, and in an opposite impulse support for controlling, regulating and supressing aspects of free economic activity. You said yourself that governments inherently have such powers and they should be used. My point is that ALL sides on this ignore it gloss over factors which weaken their position, Republicans included.

  17. manny says:

    Bill, “Illegals” make you lose the argument without any other considerations. When people think “Illegals” they think “Mexican” what does a “Mexican” look like?

    I hate all whites that are here Illegally one has to presume that they are all here illegally until they prove other wise.

    The brush you and people that use terms like “Illegals”, “Mexicans” is far too broad. Why is the Sheriff from Arizona in trouble? That is what happens legals and “Illegals” all get stopped. I been there don’t want to go there again.

    Why not a national id and e-verify everyone? We all have to carry our national id and we all get stopped like we do boarding a plane. I can live with that? Can the business people?

    By the way Bill, I have known about wage depression by strike breakers brought over from the other side of the Rio Grande before you were probably born. I have uncles who fought for farm workers, one of them was arrested more than any other, including one time from trying to stop one such person from going to work.

    But the brush is too broad, “Mexico” sends us drug dealers and rapists, I guess some are good persons.” Whites are drug dealers and rapists, I guess some are good persons.

  18. manny says:

    Bill you have to be stopped first, they create the imaginary stop way too often, been there. You can’t tell the difference by looking only.

  19. […] the Kuff is encouraged by a surge in voter registration from people who can’t wait to vote against Donald […]