Rick Dunham has a nice analysis of the proposed Congressional map that’s worth your time to read. I disagree with him on two related points.
Republicans successfully shored up three districts they captured from Democrats in the past two election cycles — those held by Pete Olson of Sugar Land, Blake Farenthold of Corpus Christi and Francisco “Quico” Canseco of San Antonio.
[…]
Rep. Joe Barton is the only Republican to be put in jeopardy by the GOP line-drawers. His Dallas-area district becomes more Hispanic and is probably a political toss-up. Barton decided to take the high road when I sought his reaction: “I think this map is a great starting point,” he said. “And it is positive that the House and Senate redistricting chairmen joined together and put forth a public map. Now open debate can begin.”
To see where I disagree, let’s look at a breakdown of the districts by 2008 electoral results. I’m using the Obama and Sam Houston numbers to divide these districts into different groups. First, the Safe Republicans:
Dist Obama Houston
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01 30.40 37.01
02 35.39 38.14
03 37.37 36.79
04 29.28 37.55
05 37.31 42.07
07 39.32 38.10
08 25.43 28.59
11 23.42 28.44
13 22.24 27.48
14 34.30 39.69
19 27.94 32.32
22 35.80 36.92
26 39.44 39.64
Some of these are likely to move into the next category over time. Keep an eye on districts 7, 22, and 26, as I think they’re the best bets to be affected by demographic change over the next decade. All this is assuming this is the map we get, of course, which is no sure bet, but we do have to start the conversation somewhere. Next is what I’d call the Likely Republicans:
Dist Obama Houston
=======================
06 41.67 44.29
10 43.81 44.14
12 42.50 43.10
17 40.71 43.98
21 42.51 40.48
24 40.55 39.91
25 42.40 43.63
27 40.78 46.28
31 42.61 42.47
32 43.79 43.63
33 42.64 43.90
36 41.02 47.46
Some of these are likelier than others. Despite the high Sam Houston numbers, I don’t really think that either CDs 27 or 36 are going to be seriously in play. They just have too much rural turf. Same for CDs 17 and 33. The ones I’d keep my eye on are CDs 32, 31, 21, 12, and yes, 06. But while Smokey Joe may have a slightly more purple district in this map, he’s not the GOPer on the most shaky ground. That goes to the one Lean Republican district:
Dist Obama Houston
=======================
23 47.19 49.27
I should note that both Linda Yanez and Susan Strawn won a majority in CD23, while all downballot Dems other than Jim Jordan had pluralities. It’s redder than it was before, but it sure as heck isn’t safe.
On the Democratic side, there’s not much to see:
Dist Obama Houston
=======================
15 59.15 61.90
20 58.40 58.15
34 59.11 62.85
09 76.42 76.77
16 66.44 68.68
18 79.48 78.71
28 60.40 63.33
29 65.18 70.09
30 81.87 82.08
35 60.70 61.16
For the sake of consistency, I’d call the first three Likely Dem and the latter seven Safe Dem. I don’t really think Congressmen Hinojosa or Gonzalez has much to fear, and whether it’s a Lucio or someone else I figure the Democratic nominee in CD34 would win easily.
So as drawn, this map would elect 10 or 11 Democrats, depending on how things broke in CD23, and 25 or 26 Republicans, though I would expect several Republican held districts to become more competitive over time. Again, all of this assumes that the final map is more or less the same as this one. Even without lawsuits and a Justice Department review, surely some aspects of this map will change. For those of you in Austin or who can get there today or tomorrow, the House Redistricting Committee will have a hearing this morning at 10:45, and the Senate will have a hearing Friday at 9. Be there if you can. A statement about the proposed map from the Texas Democratic Congressional delegation is beneath the fold, and an analysis of the plan plus a statement from the Lone Star Project is here.
Texas Democratic Congressional Representatives Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX-30), Gene Green (TX-29), Lloyd Doggett (TX-25), Sheila Jackson-Lee (TX-18), Ruben Hinojosa (TX-15), Silvestre Reyes (TX-16), Charlie Gonzalez (TX-20), Henry Cuellar (TX-28), and Al Green (TX-09) released the following statement today on Republican efforts in the Texas state legislature to dilute Hispanic and African-American representation through the redistricting process:
“The congressional redistricting map unveiled yesterday by Republicans in the state legislature is the clearest example of Republicans’ deliberate attempts to dilute Hispanic and African-American representation in Texas. Despite the fact that Texas’s minority population has grown substantially over the past decade, becoming the state’s majority population, the Republican proposed map suppresses their influence.
“While nearly 90 percent of Texas’s growth over the last decade was due to population growth among Hispanics, African-American, and Asians, state Republicans allocate no additional seats where these Texans have the ability to influence the outcome of an election. These efforts by Republicans are nothing more than a concerted attempt to deny every Texan the power of one person one vote over the next decade. This is retrogression, plain and simple. This deliberate attempt to silence the voices of such a large segment of our population is contrary to our American ideals, and should be resoundingly rejected by all Texans.
“Texas is a richly diverse state, and the new congressional map should reflect the large influence of Texans of Hispanic, African-American, and Asian descent, not weaken their voices. Our state’s gains in congressional seats are the direct result of minority growth, and the new congressional map should reflect this reality.”
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