We’ve previously discussed non-partisan initiatives at the end of the ballot and how often people have undervoted in them in the past. Now let’s take a closer look at the two ballot items from this year.
Dist A Yes A No A Under A Under%
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HD127 16,846 9,479 4,882 15.64%
HD129 15,278 6,940 4,410 16.56%
HD131 22,871 7,418 6,460 17.58%
HD133 37,434 15,266 9,363 15.09%
HD134 49,237 14,002 9,575 13.15%
HD137 14,463 5,022 5,140 20.87%
HD138 13,013 5,957 3,778 16.61%
HD139 18,245 6,560 4,406 15.08%
HD140 5,583 2,110 2,333 23.27%
HD141 10,341 2,964 3,766 22.06%
HD142 11,785 3,801 3,631 18.89%
HD143 6,577 2,596 2,831 23.58%
HD145 16,414 6,054 5,499 19.66%
HD146 28,706 8,365 7,047 15.97%
HD147 37,676 9,694 8,510 15.23%
HD148 31,230 10,823 6,811 13.94%
HD149 10,172 3,415 4,790 26.07%
Dist B Yes B No B Under B Under%
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HD127 16,228 11,551 3,427 10.98%
HD129 13,701 9,714 3,215 12.07%
HD131 19,942 11,552 5,255 14.30%
HD133 29,272 25,394 7,403 11.93%
HD134 32,928 32,079 7,810 10.73%
HD137 13,183 7,161 4,282 17.39%
HD138 11,813 7,901 3,035 13.34%
HD139 14,426 11,165 3,621 12.40%
HD140 5,797 2,411 1,818 18.13%
HD141 7,965 5,687 3,420 20.03%
HD142 9,533 6,613 3,070 15.98%
HD143 7,091 2,784 2,130 17.74%
HD145 16,267 7,699 4,000 14.30%
HD146 23,173 15,199 5,753 13.04%
HD147 28,968 19,939 6,971 12.48%
HD148 26,125 17,719 5,020 10.27%
HD149 10,261 4,250 3,866 21.04%
Remember that these are city of Houston elections, so only people in the city voted on them. The missing State Rep districts are the ones that are mostly not in Houston, and for the most part had only a handful of votes in them. Again, Prop A was the Renew Houston cleanup measure, which had little to no campaign activity around it, while Prop B was the firefighter pay parity proposal and was higher profile, though not that high profile given the intense interest in and barrage of ads for other races. Here for the first time you might entertain the idea that there’s some merit to the claim that Democratic voters might be more inclined to drop off before they get to the bottom of the ballot than Republican voters. Only HDs 139, 147, and 148 are on the lower end of the undervote spectrum. It’s suggestive, but far from conclusive. Remember, these are non-partisan ballot initiatives, not races between candidates who are clearly identified with political parties. We’ll examine that data in another post. This is also only one year’s worth of data. I may go back and take a closer look at the 2010 Renew Houston and red light camera referenda, but I don’t know how directly comparable they are – there was more attention paid to those two issues, and the political environment was very different. (I am amused to note that the Chron editorial board was blaming straight ticket voting for the demise of red light cameras, because of course straight ticket voting is history’s greatest monster, or something like that.) I’m going to take a closer look at undervoting in judicial races in another post. For now, if one wanted to make a principled and data-driven case that Republicans are more likely to vote all the way down the ballot than Democrats, you might cite the city referenda from this year. It’s one piece of data, but at least it’s something. As you’ll soon see, however, you’re going to need more than this.
Our campaign could try to increase the under vote in 2019.
Houston could stop begging our campaign to run in at-large 5 just people are desperate for a $15 minimum wage, 5 days of paid sick leave and need someone to google simple tax loopholes
I don’t see any other pussy millennials, black democrats or self righteous nonprofit feminists writing dozens/hundreds of ideas.
You are kind to the Chronicle. I subscribe to four newspapers, The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and The Houston Chronicle. The Chronicle is the second highest subscription rate only less than the New York Times.
The only reason I bother to subscribe to the Chronicle is because every once in a blue moon they have one or two unique good local articles, otherwise almost everything I see there I have read the night or maybe several days before.
By the way Bill, a lot of what we read is fake news. The newspapers have a history of publishing what the kings and king makers whisper in their ears. They don’t do follow up to verify. Reading “Bitter Fruit” is just one more reminder for me.
Am I reading it wrong? It looks like HD133 had the second highest undervote. It is a Republican district. That would go against the “Democrats don’t go down the ballot” argument
Michelle – You must be reading it wrong. HD133 has a low undervote rate on both propositions.
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Thanks