Did you know that Fort Bend County went blue in 2018 as well? Of course you did. Let’s take a closer look at how that happened.
Dist Cruz Beto Dikeman Cruz% Beto% Dike%
======================================================
HD26 32,451 33,532 406 48.88% 50.51% 0.61%
HD27 17,563 47,484 348 26.86% 72.61% 0.53%
HD28 42,974 40,330 581 51.23% 48.08% 0.69%
HD85 18,435 21,053 281 46.36% 52.94% 0.71%
CC1 27,497 28,827 359 48.51% 50.86% 0.63%
CC2 11,238 40,905 263 21.44% 78.05% 0.50%
CC3 42,882 33,373 544 55.84% 43.45% 0.71%
CC4 29,806 39,294 450 42.86% 56.50% 0.65%
As a reminder, HD85 is only partially in Fort Bend. It also covers Wharton and Jackson counties, which are both red and which are the reason this district is not as competitive as it might look. The other three State Rep districts are fully within Fort Bend. The bottom four entries are for the four County Commissioner precincts.
For comparison, here are the 2016 data for the County Commissioner precincts and for the State Rep districts. Beto, as is the case pretty much everywhere we look, outperformed the 2016 baseline everywhere. In 2016, HD26 was won by Donald Trump by five points and by downballot Republicans by 15 points. In 2016, County Commissioner Precinct 1 was won by Trump by three points and downballot Republicans by ten or so, while Precinct 4 was won by Hillary Clinton by six points but by downballot Republicans also by six points. Trump won CC3 by 19 points and HD28 by ten points. All this happened while Clinton carried Fort Bend. Anyone still surprised that Dems swept FBC this year?
Dist Abbott Valdez Tippts Abbott% Valdez% Tipp%
======================================================
HD26 36,516 28,762 898 55.18% 43.46% 1.36%
HD27 21,429 42,795 975 32.87% 65.64% 1.50%
HD28 47,549 35,016 1,213 56.76% 41.80% 1.45%
HD85 20,373 18,801 527 51.32% 47.36% 1.33%
CC1 30,249 25,584 779 53.43% 45.19% 1.38%
CC2 14,099 37,443 728 26.97% 71.63% 1.39%
CC3 47,081 28,501 1,129 61.37% 37.15% 1.47%
CC4 34,438 33,846 977 49.72% 48.87% 1.41%
Dist Patrick Collier McKen Patrick% Collier% McKen%
======================================================
HD26 33,307 31,571 1,091 50.49% 47.86% 1.65%
HD27 18,455 45,617 1,018 28.35% 70.08% 1.56%
HD28 43,848 38,174 1,496 52.50% 45.71% 1.79%
HD85 18,824 20,025 685 47.61% 50.65% 1.73%
CC1 27,935 27,510 968 49.52% 48.77% 1.72%
CC2 11,979 39,438 796 22.94% 75.53% 1.52%
CC3 43,517 31,523 1,419 56.92% 41.23% 1.86%
CC4 31,003 36,916 1,107 44.91% 53.48% 1.60%
Dist Paxton Nelson Harris Paxton% Nelson% Harris%
======================================================
HD26 32,377 32,192 1,246 49.19% 48.91% 1.89%
HD27 17,454 46,307 1,249 26.85% 71.23% 1.92%
HD28 42,892 38,800 1,700 51.43% 46.53% 2.04%
HD85 18,234 20,455 775 46.20% 51.83% 1.96%
CC1 27,165 28,003 1,142 48.24% 49.73% 2.03%
CC2 11,271 39,983 915 21.60% 76.64% 1.75%
CC3 42,689 32,005 1,620 55.94% 41.94% 2.12%
CC4 29,832 37,763 1,293 43.31% 54.82% 1.88%
Dist Hegar Chev Sand Hegar% Chev% Sand%
======================================================
HD26 34,744 29,182 1,566 53.05% 44.56% 2.39%
HD27 18,579 44,486 1,690 28.69% 68.70% 2.61%
HD28 45,403 35,587 2,176 54.59% 42.79% 2.62%
HD85 19,151 19,106 1,107 48.65% 48.54% 2.81%
CC1 28,590 26,036 1,501 50.94% 46.39% 2.67%
CC2 11,842 38,830 1,361 22.76% 74.63% 2.62%
CC3 45,266 28,887 1,942 59.49% 37.96% 2.55%
CC4 32,179 34,608 1,735 46.96% 50.51% 2.53%
Dist Bush Suazo Pina Bush% Suazo% Pina%
======================================================
HD26 34,619 29,520 1,518 52.73% 44.96% 2.31%
HD27 19,148 44,329 1,352 29.54% 68.38% 2.09%
HD28 45,308 35,889 2,099 54.39% 43.09% 2.52%
HD85 19,175 19,251 1,001 48.63% 48.83% 2.54%
CC1 28,572 26,224 1,430 50.82% 46.64% 2.54%
CC2 12,382 38,693 995 23.78% 74.31% 1.91%
CC3 44,897 29,245 2,060 58.92% 38.38% 2.70%
CC4 32,399 34,827 1,485 47.15% 50.69% 2.16%
Dist Miller Olson Carp Miller% Olson% Carp%
======================================================
HD26 32,617 31,836 1,092 49.76% 48.57% 1.67%
HD27 17,346 46,414 982 26.79% 71.69% 1.52%
HD28 43,153 38,535 1,436 51.91% 46.36% 1.73%
HD85 18,190 20,465 699 46.22% 52.00% 1.78%
CC1 27,153 27,991 984 48.38% 49.87% 1.75%
CC2 11,087 40,180 739 21.32% 77.26% 1.42%
CC3 43,016 31,680 1,367 56.55% 41.65% 1.80%
CC4 30,050 37,399 1,119 43.83% 54.54% 1.63%
Dist Craddick McAllen Wright Cradd% McAllen% Wright%
======================================================
HD26 34,651 29,418 1,446 52.89% 44.90% 2.21%
HD27 18,632 44,694 1,400 28.79% 69.05% 2.16%
HD28 45,440 35,871 1,842 54.65% 43.14% 2.22%
HD85 19,057 19,321 950 48.46% 49.13% 2.42%
CC1 28,489 26,271 1,321 50.80% 46.84% 2.36%
CC2 11,864 39,056 1,092 22.81% 75.09% 2.10%
CC3 45,237 29,103 1,746 59.46% 38.25% 2.29%
CC4 32,190 34,874 1,479 46.96% 50.88% 2.16%
Everyone met or exceeded the downballot baseline in the State Rep districts, while the top three Dems (Collier, Nelson, Olson) exceeded the Hillary mark in each. Dems should find a strong candidate to try to win back the County Commissioner seat in Precinct 1 in 2020, it sure looks like they’d have a decent shot at it.
Here are the countywide candidates for Fort Bend:
Dist Vacek Midd Vacek% Midd%
======================================
HD26 33,939 30,925 52.32% 47.68%
HD27 17,978 46,218 28.00% 72.00%
HD28 44,422 37,771 54.05% 45.95%
HD85 19,031 20,001 48.76% 51.24%
CC1 28,339 27,352 50.89% 49.11%
CC2 11,489 40,138 22.25% 77.75%
CC3 44,369 30,842 58.99% 41.01%
CC4 31,173 36,583 46.01% 53.99%
Dist Hebert George Hebert% George%
======================================
HD26 35,058 30,030 53.86% 46.14%
HD27 18,504 45,803 28.77% 71.23%
HD28 45,183 37,094 54.92% 45.08%
HD85 19,256 19,856 49.23% 50.77%
CC1 29,061 26,671 52.14% 47.86%
CC2 11,779 39,896 22.79% 77.21%
CC3 45,061 30,192 59.88% 40.12%
CC4 32,100 36,024 47.12% 52.88%
Brian Middleton met or exceeded the Hillary standard everywhere, while KP George was a point or so behind him. Both were still enough to win. Note that for whatever the reason, there were no Democratic candidates running for County Clerk or County Treasurer. One presumes that will not be the case in 2022, and one presumes there will be a full slate for the county offices next year, with Sheriff being the big prize.
We should have 2018 election data on the elected officials’ profiles and the Legislative Council’s FTP site in a couple of weeks. When that happens, I’ll be back to focus on other districts of interest. In the meantime, I hope you found this useful.